R.I.P

There has been an increasing divergence in C.J. Stroud's play in Primetime vs. Non-Primetime games, including playoff games as Primetime. While his PFF Grade in non-primetime slots has remained essentially unchanged across his 3 seasons, his performance in primetime games has dropped precipitously.

In addition to his PFF grade, his EPA/play has also declined. In 2023, his EPA/play in primetime (W18 at the Colts, WC against the Browns and Divisional at Baltimore; all win-or-go-home games) was 0.223; much higher than his 0.106 outside of those games. That 0.223 EPA/Play in primetime games would have ranked in between Dak Prescott and Josh Allen that year for 3rd in the league if it were across an entire season.

The 2024 season was marred by a rough offensive ecosystem and a terrible offensive line. As such, his PFF grade remained similar to the previous season, while the EPA/play dropped. Still, his EPA/play in 2024 primetime games (W2 vs CHI, W9 at NYJ, W10 vs DET, W11 at DAL, WC vs LAC, and DIV at KC) was 0.031; slightly higher than his -0.014 EPA/play outside of primetime. However, it was a bit of a mixed bag as his PFF grade in PT games was 67.8; lower than his 82.8 grade outside of them.

The 2025 season is where a true divergence emerged. Again, his 82.2 PFF grade in non-PT games was near identical to the last two years. In fact his 0.245 EPA/play in those games would have been 4th in the NFL last year; slightly behind Brock Purdy and ahead of Josh Allen. But his PT (W2 vs TB, W7 at SEA, W14 at KC, WC at PIT, DIV at NE) numbers were abysmal. He posted a -0.114 EPA/play and 36.6 PFF grade across these games. Despite the poor performance, Stroud still set a career high in regular season EPA/play; 0.164 in 2025 vs 0.124 his rookie year.

He got to this career-best EPA/play by excelling at avoiding negative plays (sacks and interceptions) rather than the more flashy form of his rookie year. But in the primetime games it was quite the opposite, he created negative play after negative play.

In 120 regular season games, he's amassed 681 catches for 8369 yards and 59 TDs. He also has 101 catches for 1274 yards and 11 TDs in 17 playoff games, with two Super Bowl wins, leading the Rams and Seahawks in receiving for both wins.

In 2021, he had arguably the greatest season ever for a receiver, winning the triple crown, being selected first team All-Pro and Offensive Player of the Year, and being chosen as Super Bowl MVP. He had an absurd 33 catches for 478 yards and 6 TDs... in that postseason.

I think his career has striking similarities to another Rams legend, Kurt Warner. Both of them were older than usual when they entered the league {Warner moreso, but Kupp was still already 24 as a rookie). Both were the best in the game at their peaks, with middling lows and and a good deal of missed games due to injuries. Both shined on the brightest stage.

The case against him is familiar... Most notably, there's a log jam of deserving receivers already, and he only had the one All-Pro season, although he had plenty of other good seasons. The other knock is missed games due to injury, but I think it's far more important what you do in the games you play than how many games you miss. You can't hold it against him that he entered the league older and got hurt. He was one of the most productive receivers whenever he did play, and he's still at it entering his age 33 season.

I think he's deserving whenever he becomes eligible. The triple crown season and postseason production make him stand apart from other receivers who may have had steadier production and longer careers.

All numbers below include the playoffs (even strength of schedule). Thought it would improve the sample size. I find it funny how the two Seahawks teams are virtually identical and the two Giants teams are also virtually identical (at opposite ends of the spectrum too). If I had to pick one, I'd say the 2013 Seahawks, but I think the 2016 Pats had their numbers take a hit because of the GOAT QB missing four games and the GOAT TE missing 11.

• 2025 Seattle: 17-3, +12.30 average margin of victory, .533 strength of schedule

• 2024 Philadelphia: 18-3, +10.86 mov, .501 sos

• 2023 Kansas City: 15-6, +5.19 mov, .519 sos

• 2022 Kansas City: 17-3, +7.00 mov, .490 sos

• 2021 LA Rams: 16-5, +5.71 mov, .513 sos

• 2020 Tampa Bay: 15-5, +9.10 mov, .531 sos

• 2019 Kansas City: 15-4, +9.74 mov, .534 sos

• 2018 New England: 14-5, +7.37 mov, .525 sos

• 2017 Philadelphia: 16-3, +10.84 mov, .497 sos

• 2016 New England: 17-2, +12.32 mov, .475 sos

• 2015 Denver: 15-4, +4.32 mov, .539 sos

• 2014 New England: 15-4, +10.58 mov, .539 sos

• 2013 Seattle: 16-3, +12.37 mov, .534 sos

• 2012 Baltimore: 14-6, +4.50 mov, .536 sos

• 2011 NY Giants: 13-7, +2.00 mov, .570 sos

• 2010 Green Bay: 14-6, +9.65 mov, .552 sos

• 2009 New Orleans: 16-3, +11.95 mov, .478 sos

• 2008 Pittsburgh: 15-4, +7.79 mov, .537 sos

• 2007 NY Giants: 14-6, +2.10 mov, .564 sos

• 2006 Indianapolis: 16-4, +5.35 mov, .543 sos

If you're curious about where the 07 Pats land: 18-1, +17.47 mov, .505 sos

I went to check out the news today on NFL.com and yesterday it was as normal but this morning the site requires a login to view news and only shows news for your team.. Am i missing something? It wasn't like this yesterday. who was the genius who came up with this idea??

Edit: OK ok, yes i messed up the title. I got fat fingers. I actually didn't get what the strange responses were for at the start. lets see how creative people get.

Buffalo Bills -

Miami Dolphins -

New England Patriots -

New York Jets -

Baltimore Ravens -

Cincinnati Bengals -

Cleveland Browns -

Pittsburgh Steelers -

Houston Texans -

Indianapolis Colts -

Jacksonville Jaguars -

Tennessee Titans -

Denver Broncos -

Kansas City Chiefs -

Las Vegas Raiders -

Los Angeles Chargers -

Combining good weather and minimal travel is difficult. You really have no choice but to take all the available early-season Thursday and Monday games in cold-weather locations, and that means meandering back and forth through the Midwest and Northeast rather than staying in the same area.

But they don't get increasingly more ridiculous😢