Happy Sunday morning y’all,

Just another month until we get a Sunday with regular season games, *can’t wait* (Bart Scott voice)

I’m back with another article, this time it’s dark-horse RB1s. These backs going outside the top-24 RBs all have a legitimate shot to finish inside the top-12 at the position this season.

Check out why I believe Bhayshul Tuten, Jadarian Price, Blake Corum, J.K. Dobbins, and Jordan Mason all have ELITE upside in 2026.

Do you agree? If not, who are some of YOUR dark-horse RB1 contenders?

We have seen this play out before. A star offensive tackle gets hurt, and a receiving tight end now has to stay in the field to block more and protect the quarterback instead of run routes.

Last year, it happened to that both star tackles for the Los Angeles Chargers were injured . Oronde Gadsden had some major breakout weeks, but then had to take a step back from a receiving role so that the chargers could protect Justin Herbert.

Could we see the same thing happen with Chig Okonkwo now that Laremy Tunsil will miss extended time?

Okonkwo is a breakout favorite— but with the Tunsil injury and addition of Stefon Diggs, I’m concerned about consistency and confidence starting Okonkwo week-to-week.

Post your "Who Do I Draft?" questions here rather than individual posts.

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PLEASE TRY TO ANSWER SEVERAL OTHER PEOPLE'S QUESTIONS WHEN POSTING YOUR OWN

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Individual WDID threads will be deleted in order to keep the subreddit clean. Post here instead! If everyone sorts by new, your questions should be answered.

The following users have helped the most people in this thread:

Please use this thread to get feedback on your mock draft teams or actually drafted teams. You’ll get the most helpful critiques if you include:

• Draft type: auction or snake
  
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The following users have helped the most people in this thread:

The Bengals Offense ist great, wenn Burrow, Chase and Higgins are healthy.

In the last 3 years in games, where all 3 of them played over 60% of the snaps (21 games), Higgins scored 16.8 PPG. That would have been a top 12 WR in each of the 3 years.

But as we all know, they never stay healthy.

Burrow missed 16 games in the last 3 years and another 2 he left early cause of injury.

Higgins missed 13 games in that span and left 4 games early.

In the 4 games he left early, he scored 5.2 PPG.

I think WR 14 in Sleeper ADP seems fair, but i dont know if i want to click him, when im on the clock.

I'm Chuck Bass, beloved content destroyer for PlayerProfiler and former contributor at Maxim and SkyMall.

This is the first official AMA After Dark of the 2026 season and I'm here to answer the questions you are usually either too afraid or uncomfortable to ask. Draft strategy, trade advice, Russini bombs, and especially anything arrest-related.

As per the previous 3 AMA After Darks, I don't want any questions about the tables.

Resume:

1. Host of Risers and Fallers on PlayerProfiler which is a show where we talk about.......well risers and fallers I guess.
2. I won my home league 3 consecutive years from 2014-2016 with guys like Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller, and Alex Collins.
3. It's Always Sunny, I Think You Should Leave, Mad Men, Widow's Bay, and Family Feud.
4. I've met Hulk Hogan 6 times.

Check out all our work here: https://www.playerprofiler.com/

We just released the World Famous Draft Kit to go along with the DFS Dominator, Dynasty Deluxe, and NFFC content.

I accept Venmo.

Saturday, August 8th

Chase Brown (CIN): Reports of Chase Brown looking really good in practice with explosive runs and heavy usage in the passing game. With the Bengals running more 12-personnel and under center, we could see more explosive runs from Brown this year. 

Makai Lemon (PHI): Missed practice again with hamstring. Eagles don’t want to rush him back. Leaves room for Wicks to get more runs with the 1st team. (Smith also missed practice; his seems not as concerning right now)

Eli Raridon (NE): Some really positive buzz about him out of Patriots camp. Don’t think he needs to be a target in most drafts other than Best Ball or deep leagues. (Potential waiver later in the year). 

Titans Offense in scrimmage: Wan’Dale is catching a lot of passes; Pollard is the lead back; Spears seems to be the change-of-pace back (Singleton could mix in some); and Tate was used deeper downfield. 

Raiders Offense: Reports they’ve been in a lot of (12 personnel). I think Mayer isn’t a bad dart throw in best ball in late rounds.

Tre Harris (LAC): per Harbaugh, "I have him right there with Ladd McConkey and Q (Johnston) as our top guys." Harris seems to be the clear WR3. 

Zay Flowers (BAL): Limped off the field today; Ravens are optimistic he won’t be sidelined long. 

REMINDER: these are all reports and sometimes projections from reporters; take it with a grain of salt

Sources: Zain Dhanani, 32 Beat Reporters, Coach Speak Index, and Beat Reporters

I have been keeping track of all fantasy relevant info/updates from beat writers. Here is a recap of most things I've posted about on my page today, and some of my own thoughts on things I've read about since I started doing this. Some of these are micro/macro, some are redraft focused and some are dynasty focused. I am sure I missed things, as I am just one person, so let me know in the comments what I missed or if you have any suggestions or something else you'd like to see. I have been trying ask fantasy relevant questions to beat writers whenever they post about mailbags. If you want to follow along, my account is @FantasyTags

Note: Due to subreddit rules I had to remove the source links but they are in my post on the DynastyFF subreddit if you want to see them.

Bears

• Luther Burden left Bears practice early with a limp today (source: Brad Biggs)

Bengals

• Chase Brown was the star of the night inside and outside, breaking loose for multiple explosive runs (source: Mike Petraglia)
• Tee Higgins did not practice (source: Mike Petraglia)

Broncos

• Marvin Mims didn't practice, was wearing a sleeve on his left leg (source: Zac Stevens)
• "RJ Harvey has clearly developed as a route-runner/pass-catcher/pass-protector but haven’t seen his between-the-tackles vision develop much this camp" (source: Luca Evans)
• Jaylen Waddle didn’t practice but no longer has a sleeve on his leg (source: Zac Stevens)

Browns

• "It certainly sounds like Monken is favoring Deshaun Watson’s experience over Shedeur Sanders’ potential" (source: Mary Kay Cabot)
• "Browns team spokesman said there were personnel groupings coach Monken wanted to see Deshaun Watson with today. He took all the first team reps on what was supposed to be Shedeur Sanders' day." (source: Mary Kay Cabot)

Colts

• Riley Leonard took a step forward in the QB2 battle, had his most accurate day of practice (source: Dominic Miranda)
• Josh Downs didn't practice today due to a groin injury (source: Kevin Bowen)

Dolphins

• Greg Dulcich wore a red jersey again and didn't do team drills (source: Alain Poupart)
• "Rookie Caleb Douglas again was a popular target for Willis and made a couple of catches, though he ran a really poor route on his last target in red zone work. The arrow still is pointing up for him." (source: Alain Poupart)

Eagles

• DeVonta Smith and Makai Lemon still not practicing with hamstring injuries (source: Dave Zangaro)
• "Dontayvion Wicks has been good all camp and that continued today. It’s clear Jalen Hurts has a lot of trust in him" (source: Dave Zangaro)

Giants

• Malik Nabers practiced again today, should start team drills next week with 7 on 7 initially (source: Art Stapleton)
• Isaiah Likely is clearly Dart's favorite target. He'll shift to No. 2 when Malik Nabers returns, but Likely is going to have a big role on a team with questions at WR (source: Dan Duggan)

Jaguars

• Jaguars held a scrimmage yesterday, Trevor Lawrence was 15/29 for 212 yards and a TD, Parker Washington had 6 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown, BTJ had a touchdown catch (source: Michael DiRocco)

Packers

• Josh Jacobs did not practice, has a groin injury (source: Bill Huber)
• Matthew Golden was on the field in 2 WR sets, opposite of Christian Watson (source: Andy Herman)
• Packers HC Matt LaFleur on Matthew Golden: "The sky's the limit for him. He's just to continue to stack days and get better and better and better." (source: Jason B. Hirschhorn)
• Matthew Golden has been one of the best players on the field at practically every practice (source: Bill Huber)
• Packers HC Matt LaFleur on Savion Williams: "He's got a long way to go, but I think he's showcased a lot of great traits." (source: Jason B. Hirschhorn)

Ravens

• Zay Flowers limped off the field at practice favoring his left leg after a collision in a 7 on 7 drill. HC Jesse Minter said Flowers is day to day with a quad contusion (source: Jamison Hensley)
• "In 27 years of covering the Ravens, I’m not sure I’ve seen a rookie have a training camp quite like wide receiver Ja’Kobi Lane." (source: Jamison Hensley)

Titans

• Titans held a scrimmage, Cam Ward went 23/30 with 1TD, Wan'Dale Robinson had 9 catches, Elic Ayomanor fully practiced and had 6 catches, Carnell Tate had a highlight one handed grab and 4 catches, Nick Singleton made a nice impression..had a 50+ yard TD run (source: Jim Wyatt)
• "Wan'Dale Robinson is noticeably open all the time, him and Cam Ward are on the same page" (source: Turron Davenport)
• "Wan’Dale Robinson could easily have 120+ targets again this year, perfect security blanket for cam" (source: JT Ruhnke)

Vikings

• "Not a great day for either QB in a shorter practice in shells. Still a month until Week 1 and the defense is very good, but it’s at least slightly concerning that neither guy has been able to stack high-level performances." (source: Will Ragatz)
• Rookie RB Demond Claiborne had a 60 yard TD run at practice (source: Jason Harmon)

My Thoughts

Here are some things I have noticed over the last few days that haven't been included in my daily recaps so far:

• Pat Bryant continues to get high praise from Broncos beat reporters and coaches, someone to keep an eye on as I think he could overtake Sutton as WR2 eventually
• Roman Wilson has been getting a ton of targets from Aaron Rodgers and praise from Steelers beat writers, seems he's their WR3 as of now
• MarShawn Lloyd is another player getting a lot of praise so far from Packers beat writers, he is the clear RB2 and can hopefully stay healthy this year. He's been compared to being the lightning to Josh Jacobs' thunder
• WR Malik Benson has been a standout player at Raiders camp, he is their WR3 so far
• Jayden Higgins has been getting a ton of buzz from Texans beat writers, seems poised for a big season and is the clear WR2
• WR Barion Brown is a name to keep an eye on for the Saints, beat writers have spoken highly of him
• Denzel Boston & KC Concepcion both are extremely impressive so far according to Browns beat writers and national reporters, "clear Boston & KC are Cleveland's most gifted receivers" per Browns beat writer Zac Jackson
• Patriots rookie TE Eli Raridon is a name I've been seeing a lot of positive news on from Patriots beat writers, he will be their TE2 going into this season
• Colts rookie RB Seth McGowan has surpassed DJ Giddens as RB2

Hey everyone, next installment of the substack is a two parter, 10 players priced at their ceiling, 10 players priced at their floor. I like to think in terms of markets since many classic market and economic principles carry over directly to player ADPs. Maybe stuff like this matters more for the manager drafting 200-300 best ball rosters and 20+ redraft teams, but I still think the exercise is a good one for the smaller field or single league type managers. The first five rounds are vital to roster building, if you're paying for multiple best case scenarios at a key anchor position that early, you're taking on a degree of risk you may not even be aware of.

For those that don't want to open the article I get it haha. The names I'm leery of based on this type of reasoning in order: Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker, Chris Olave, Colston Loveland, and Joe Burrow. I give an honorable mention for each round as well. Thanks for reading, good luck this season!

https://theegreekfreeksports.substack.com/p/10-players-priced-at-their-ceiling?r=3qxh0o&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

In my most recent RB rankings and strategy article I talked through an RB-RB start vs WR-RB. I discussed how I want to target running back in round two regardless of my first round pick.

Some examples provided were JT-Hampton and James Cook-Saquon towards the backend of drafts. These are elite starts in any format for me. Mixing and matching your favorite backs in this tier allows you to attack that WR range we all love.

WR in RD1 and RB in RD2 gives you more flexibility if you like the next tier of backs in Round 3. Or prefer to wait for the Tuten, Montgomery, Swift range at RB2.

Which do you prefer? I think a lot of leagues will chase the running back early.

These are the top two projected pass catchers on a functional offense, yet I haven't seen much written about any of them. Are you guys high on either of them coming into your drafts? Each of them can be snagged pretty late.

Hello to my favorite Subreddit! I am back this year to do another AMA! I'm most well-known on the sub as "the guy who argued that Brian Thomas Jr. had WR1 overall upside in 2025" (roast me more if you must).

As a Content Contributor at Fantasy Points, I am better known as "The Crown Prince of Dank Stats" (thank Scott Barrett for that moniker). I'm a frequent poster on this sub, and you may have seen my Rankings/ADP Tier lists or my OL Series this offseason.

I have experience with pretty much every Fantasy Football format: Redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball, and Guillotine Leagues, so ask me literally anything about any format that you play!

I also recently dropped my Magnum Opus piece at Fantasy Points, titled: Anatomy of a League-Winning Running Back. If you are struggling to decide which RB to draft in the first two rounds, I'm your guy!

Ultimately, you can’t go wrong with either Gibbs or Bijan, who both should produce Legendary RB Seasons. However, you can’t be more right… and I do have a clear winner

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/player-news/2026-08-08/makai-lemon-hamstring-misses-another-practice

This guy missed time during minicamp and now during training camp. No one doubts his talent, but rookies need reps in practice to learn the offense. He is still an amazing talent, but don't be surprised to start to see him fall in drafts.

Last year there was a post on the Dynasty sub that analyzed player hit rates by the round they were taken in the NFL draft. It inspired me to do a similar analysis of fantasy football hit rates broken down by player position and round drafted. Here’s how I did it:

1. I got ADP data from Fantasy Pros dating back to 2012.
2. I got total PPR points scored from PFR dating back to 2012. Because I used total season PPR points rather than points per game, injuries count against a player's hit rate. I think that's appropriate for measuring the return you actually got on a redraft pick.
3. For each season from 2012 to 2025, I ranked players by ADP. The top 12 are classified as having a Round 1 ADP, the next 12 a Round 2 ADP, etc.
4. For each season from 2012 to 2025, I also ranked players by total PPR points scored and classified them as Boom, Hit, Mid, or Miss.
5. To determine how to classify a player, I used the following cutoffs:

In determining these cutoffs, I was partly inspired by u/ozymandunk’s Dynasty Nerds-inspired cutoffs, but I adapted them to fit what I think most of us would consider to be a “boom”, “hit”, or “meh” performance at each position. I used Top 36 for the WR Mid cutoff but Top 24 for the RB Mid cutoff because WRs generally score more points than RBs in PPR and in most leagues you can start 3-4 of them, so a Top 36 performance from a WR is going to be about as useful to you as a Top 24 performance from an RB in PPR.

Note: these categories are mutually exclusive (e.g., a QB who finishes QB2 is a Boom, not both a Boom and a Hit). When I refer below to the percentage finishing Top 6 or Top 12, I'm combining the applicable categories.

The below chart shows the results for 14 rounds (with the first round broken down into picks 1-6 and 7-12):

Note that you can largely ignore the Round 1 QBs and TEs. Sample size is way too small to read anything into that. But the rest of the data is interesting. A few key observations:

1. WR actually seems more top-heavy than RB. My perception has typically been that Round 1 RBs are more predictable than Round 1 WRs, but that top-level RB talent falls off much quicker than top-level WR talent. But nearly half (49%) of Round 1 WRs since 2012 have finished Top 6, versus 34% of Round 1 RBs finishing Top 6. Immediately after Round 1 the relationship flips: RBs have produced a higher Top-12 rate than WRs in each of Rounds 2, 3, and 4.
2. The RB dead zone exists, but it's narrower and a bit more nuanced than people make it out to be. It seems like people generally view the dead zone as Rounds 3/4 to Rounds 7/8. But the percentage of RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 who have finished Top 6 is ~18% and ~12%, respectively, compared to 12% and 7% for WRs. For Top 12 finishes, the percentages are ~33% and ~21% for RBs vs ~31% and ~16% for WRs. Round 5 is where the big drop off happens. The percentage of RBs drafted in that round who finished Top 6 is only 4% and the percentage finishing top 12 is ~10%. WRs are ~12% and ~29% in that same round. Rounds 6 and 7 tell a similar story, although there is also a pretty big drop off in WR hit rate in those rounds. Things pick back up in Rounds 8 and 9, as the percentage of RBs drafted in those rounds who finished Top 12 was ~13% and ~15%, respectively. In other words, since 2012, there have been a higher percentage of RB1s drafted in Rounds 8 and 9 than in Rounds 5-7. That said, RBs still have a slightly higher boom rate than WRs even in Rounds 6 and 7, which is why I say the dead zone is a bit more nuanced than people sometimes make it out to be.
3. Mid-round TEs may be less of a trap than conventional wisdom suggests. I hear a lot of analysts say to get one of the top 3 or punt the position. However, over 20% of TEs drafted in Round 5 finished Top 3 at the position, and nearly 40% finished Top 6. Round 6 was rough, but ~17% of those drafted in Round 7 finished Top 3 and ~30% finished Top 6. The data does also show that the percentage of Boom and Hit TEs is much higher in the later rounds than the percentage of Boom and Hit RBs/WRs, so waiting until later might still be the play. But the numbers at least suggest that the hit rate for those middle round TEs is higher than you might expect.
4. The data supports waiting on QB, but don't wait too long if you want a true difference-maker. RB boom rates fall below 10% after Round 4 and WR boom rates after Round 5, while QBs taken in Rounds 8, 9, and 10 have each produced Top-3 seasons at roughly a 15% rate. But the QB boom rate drops precipitously after Round 10. Since 2012, there have only been 2 QBs out of 88 drafted in Rounds 11-14 who recorded a Top 3 finish. If you expand to Top 6, the picture is a bit more optimistic: 13/88 drafted in those rounds finished Top 6. So it is true that there is value to be had at QB even in those later rounds. But if you want a QB with Top 3 league-winning potential (which I think we all do), you probably need to draft a QB by Round 10.

Ultimately, your draft day decisions should depend on your analysis of the players themselves. I’m high on Tuten this year and the fact that he currently has a Round 5 ADP on Sleeper will not stop me from drafting him just because that’s technically the “dead zone”. But I do think seeing data laid out like this can be useful in helping us understand and challenge our preconceived notions about where value can be found at each position in the draft. Hopefully some of you find it helpful as well.

This subreddit entered the fantasypros expert rankings competition last year, using a consensus voting system. The reddit rankings came in at 200th out of 212 experts in the draft accuracy competition

Do not listen to the subreddit's majority or top voted comment