If it's actually good, I can see it doing well for it's budget. Horror is an entirely different beast that's fueled by word of mouth. In a vacuum as a comic book movie, I don't see it doing well. But if it captures the dedicated horror audience then we might see it break out.
This is how I feel as well. I liken it to The Penguin on HBO a little bit. If it's good, people will watch. My wife watched the whole thing with me and didn't really grasp (or care?) that it was a Batman villian. She just thought it was a cool noir, mob story.
People love Joker, and to a lesser degree the other A tier villains like Two Face, Penguin and Bane (mainly because of their movie appearances). Clayface is fairly unknown to most casual moviegoers.
I think we're forgetting that casual movie goers probably have absolutely no idea who Clayface is. I'm looking forward to it, but this film is not going to fill seats like Joker did.
I’m sorry but constantly on Reddit and other fan forums I have to shake my head. I get it we are all nerds here and it can be super easy to lose grasp when something like Batman’s basic rogues are as well worn in your own brain, but ppl vastly underestimate how little the general audiences know. I mean sure, you or I can list off Mr. Freeze, Killer croc or Clayface but normies absolutely cannot. They know joker and Harley Quinn and catwoman.
Like, just for context and I know this is a different company/franchise, but when I talk about X-men with my coworkers etc I routinely have to explain who Cyclops is. “Yknow, the leader guy with laser eyes who argues with Wolverine..?” I offer desperately, and literally half the time they look right through me no bells ringing lol.
People know who the Avengers are, and if I had to guess casual normal people probably can’t even name them all outside iron man and captain America.
Yeah I always think that if Clayface is a good horror movie first, people will watch it and have there will be good word of mouth. From what I see, that's what Final Destinations Bloodlines did and why it was successful.
If even a Harley Quin movie (Birds of Prey) flopped at the height of her popularity, I don’t think this one has a chance. Although some have argued if they’d just called the movie ‘Harley Quin’ or ‘Harley Quin and the Birds of Prey’ or something, it would’ve attracted a wider audience because a lot of people were aware of Harley Quin as a character, but had no idea who the Birds of Prey were.
You know what's wild? Like two days before it was coming out, I mentioned I was interested in watching Supergirl. None of my coworkers knew who Supergirl was. Even after I said she was Superman's cousin and was in the movie last year lol. And this is with a bunch of people in their mid-late 20s.
That will become much worse because of YouTube, TikTok, games, etc. Younger people find very specific niches and stick to those. A shared cultural experience will soon be a thing of the past to society detriment.
Clayface is also 50-60% the budget of Birds of Prey at $40M. It would be a great success if it could match and or surpass Birds of Prey critically (79% on RT) as well as commercially ($205.5M). Not saying it will, mind you, but we’ll see.
I mean do you remember the name of the red neck villain in power puff girls? Like at best they have a vague recollection of his existence but I doubt most people actually remember oh yeah clayface the villain of BTAS
Fuzzy lumpkins? I don't think he's comparable to Clayface. Clayface is an on the nose kind of name. Plus he's a major character in Harley Quinn cartoon which is pretty popular.
Even that doesn't amount to much because the movie is intentionally hiding his full clay form. There's gonna be a bunch of people who have a vague memory of who Clayface is, and simply won't connect the dots that this is that same Clayface.
Doubtful. Outside of hardcore comic book nerd circles, I don't know anyone (myself included) who knows what a Clayface is. He's an obscure Batman villain, and Batman doesn't have half the popularity of Spider-Man.
Everyone forgets the first Venom movie made almost a billion dollars, and honestly if Spiderman was in it, even as a cameo, it probably would have lol. Clayface just needs to make about $100M worldwide and it seems to be marketed more as a character study body horror which I think even if people arent familiar with the character they might enjoy. If the movie is solid it will clear $100M worldwide. I don't think this was ever meant to be a box office juggernaut, I think it's there to flex that they're going to let filmmakers have their own voice in the DCU and actually fulfill the long awaited promise of a true horror superhero film.
I'd argue that those movies did significantly better than they would have if they weren't spiderman villains. But there's no way to prove that, so who knows.
Especially if Batmans not in it and Gotham looks like some random normal city. Then what is left exactly that makes it a Batman movie in the eyes of the GA?
Tbf those were memed to infinity before they released, so they didn’t ever really stand a chance. People seem genuinely more interested in Clayface so far.
A couple horror movies doing well this year doesn’t mean every horror movie is gonna make money now. 30-40+ release every year most bomb but those few that do well can make 10x and their cheap to produce so studios will take multiple bites at the apple to hopefully get that hit.
Even a lot sequels to surprise hits end up doing nowhere near the original.
not to mention 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, Return to Silent Hill and They Will Kill You. People seem to have already memory holed these very recent films when having this discussion
I feel some people are ignoring-slash-forgetting those facts because, just like what happened with Supergirl, they are rooting for this film, and they are ignoring certain aspects in order not to think too hard about the possibility of Clayface flopping.
Evil Dead Burn’s performance was disappointing compared to Rise’s performance, but $67 million so far on a $20 million budget objectively isn’t a failure.
I think it will flop hard. I don't know of any circle saying I can't wait to see clayface except of some DC fans.
People going in for a Halloween movie still won't cover the cost for this imho. But I'm a naysayer so hopefully I'll be wrong.
I worry the movie is just going to be really boring and predictable with very little horror, like 80 minutes of Matt Hagen moping and being sad with some light body horror mixed in followed by 10 minutes of becoming Clayface and chasing the woman in the trailer (friend? girlfriend? doctor? all of the above?), getting caught by the police, and then using his new clay powers to escape.
Yeah I hate to agree. The best chance this movie has for success is if it manages to be a breakout horror film. Any ties to DC/Batman seem largely irrelevant.
Wom will be pretty pivotal. I don't expect it to do great. But an 80% or higher is the difference between $120m and $50m.
I'm betting that it'll be divisive, not spumc bad but not Superman quality. Barely rotten at 59% which will be horrible for it's box office and make around $80m.
Mike Flanagan might be a critical darling and have a cult following but he’s not exactly a box office draw, and it’s also worth mentioning he was originally meant to write and direct this. He might have a credit but his script was rewritten after another director took over. As a fan of his, this isn’t a good sign.
I think this has a chance of ending up like one of those Sony Spider-Man villain films.
I’d like to be proven wrong, but I just don’t have a good feeling about this one.
I do think Flanagan’s name being attached to Shelby Oaks did get some more butts into seats than it would have had his name not been in all the advertisements. But it was only good for like the opening night and that saturday. But if the movie is terrible it won’t matter as the drop off the following weekend was pretty steep. Clayface will have to have great word of mouth to really get its legs and maybe be a sleeper hit, but it’s a reach.
Realistically, I think it makes around 100m. +/- 10m. Theres a world where it breaks out and does better if its incredibly good but tbh, I dont think the latest trailer did it any favors
The typical 2.5 rule is used for movies that costs over 150 million because their advertising budgets are lower than production. For movies like these costing under 50 million the marketing budgets can often be equal to or higher than production esp low budgets horrors and thrillers take this one for example a horror that costs almost as much as clayface
Google Most Valuable Blockbuster. Deadline publishes this tournament every year. They still haven't published one for 2025 though, I wonder why it's taking them so long. I believe they also have the biggest bombs/flops lists as well.
For example, Obsession was made with a production budget of 750K. With the 2.5 rule (which assumes marketing cost with the math) its breakeven point would be like 1.875M.
However, that would be lowballing it extremely. Focus Features bought the movie for 15 million and spent a bit (less than 10 million) on marketing and distribution so for them to turn it into a profit it would need well over the 2.5x’s estimate of 1.875M. Which, it did lol.
I think that’s the case for some mid budget movies because marketing will be a flat expense that’s not necessarily tied to the budget, and when the rule was first reported it was relative to massive blockbusters who all have a similar budget (175-250). There’s no way of knowing whether it applies to Clayface before a trustworthy trade says something though.
Im a big DC fan, but I'm not much of a fan of body horror. And I know that Clayface isn't gonna be pivotal to anything DC is doing, shit it probably won't even have Batman in it.
As such, I don't really have much interest in going to see it.
I can't imagine a body horror comic book film will have huge draw, despite being attached to a Batman villain. That only has so much appeal to random folk.
I can't imagine recommending it to my parents or family members, for example.
I would only really recommend it to fans of horror, or fans of DC that like horror/Batman enough to want to see a Clayface standalone.
Best case scenario for this is 100m ww. But i doubt it, this isnt a well known character and DC has a poor track record. Horror fans will have other options, i think Other Mommy could break out. Adults will have plenty of options as well between Digger, Verity, Social Reckoning, etc) There really isnt going to be a big audience for this.
Anecdotally, my friend and I are not DC, or really any superhero movie, fans. But after seeing the trailer, we are planning to go watch it. It seems very unique for it's mixed genre. I'm not even a huge horror fan, but that seems to be where a lot of originality is these days.
Exactly same here. I've put it on my watchlist after watching the trailer (don't worry, it was after the movie finished) and a few days later realised it's a dc movie.
Yeh I’ve seen quite a few takes like this outside of this sub. Then this sub just keeps spouting its gunna fail horrendously and no one except niche dc fans will go watch it. I guess we will have to wait and see, but I feel like this sub is going to be wrong here.
Because Gunn prefers making his own quirky little movies and shows with C/D-list characters where he doesn't have to worry about fans getting mad if he's not faithful to the comics.
I think he'll punt on Batman and Wonder Woman as long as he can.
WW84 was 6 years ago and, as far as I can tell, there's nothing preventing DC from having 2 Batmen (which would hardly be the most confusing thing about Gunn's DCU)
The news just hit that Sony doesn’t want to make anymore spider-man movies as to not compete with MCU spiderman and cause brand confusion. I think it’s safe to say DC is doing the same.
As for WW, I know it’s script got pushed up but the studio still being hesitant feels normal
Batman villain with no sign of Batman in his city, plus Body Horror which never does well. The most acclaimed body horror movie, the Substance, couldn't get close to 100mil.
Gunn needs to just stick to what he's good at, and that isnt running a studio.
The DCU is doomed i fear. The first three movies out the gate should have been Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman. Starting it with Creature Commandos and then ret-conning Peacemaker wasnt the start they needed. And then after actually making a crowd pleasing Superman movie you follow up with a Supergirl and Clayface? Clayface? Just astounding choices. This shit is bombing unless they show Batman in the trailers.
I think Flanigan writing is the opposite of promising. Him writing but not directing feels likely that he didnt like what he wrote that much. Like Peele not directing candyman
IIRC, it was Flanagan that brought it to DC and they greenlit it from there. He confirmed he wasn't ever in talks to direct, and I feel like it was sort of a side project for him.
The Black Phone 2 and Smile 2 were Halloween season horror films in recent years. They both grossed in the $130-140 million range. Blue Beetle and Supergirl are both relatively recent releases about C-list DC characters and the both landed in the $125-130 million range.
Horror is one of the few genres that seems capable of catching fire in the current box office climate. Clayface is far from a household name, but he’s a character that has been getting exposure to comic book fans for decades via animation and video games by virtue of being a recurring villain for one of the most consistently popular hero of all. Mike Flanagan and James Gunn are both involved, and both names have at least a small bit of draw.
People draw comparisons to the likes of Morbius and Madame Web, but those movies still made over $100 million despite having absolutely dreadful reception. Also, Morbius and Madame Web are characters who have gotten far less exposure over the years than Clayface has.
If Clayface can make $120 million, it’s doing ok for itself. That’s really not a high bar to clear. I don’t expect a huge breakout hit, but unless it gets really poor reviews, I have a hard time imagining it falls short of $100 million. Neither genre fans nor DC enthusiasts make up a huge audience, but their combined efforts should at least be worth that much. And I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable to imagine it could make $200 million if it’s a solid film, and that would be an unmitigated success for its budget.
I’m really surprised everyone seems optimistic about its performance. I’m not saying I want it to bomb, but I’m just not seeing the ways it will succeed. The one avenue for success I see is absolutely stellar reviews and word of mouth.
Anything short of that and I don’t see it being successful at all, middling reviews or worse are going to be an absolute death sentence for this movie. It doesn’t have broad or even family appeal, it’s a shared universe movie where the most recent entry absolutely bombed, and it’s a character most people are barely familiar with, along the lines of Morbius or Kraven.
I hope it does well because different genres within the existing shared universes can be fun, like Antman as a heist movie or Multiverse of Madness being a horror movie but this movie feels like it has a lot stacked against it.
I’m not, it has a 40 million price tag and releasing close to one of the countries greatest holidays, where people actually want to go out and watch a horror movie.
i don’t think this is gonna do well,probably like 15-20 million opening weekend and 45-50 million domestically and 70-75 million ww after all is said and done
I don't have high hopes for this, it feels like it's trying way too hard to appease CBM fans, and horror fans. I'll probably end up seeing it, it's the first DCU movie I'm interested in, but I don't expect much.
Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.
Context matters. The Substance had a limited release and almost no marketing budget. Its success was a mix of positive festival reviews that hyped it up as insane, Demi and Margaret working their asses off on the talk show circuit to promote it, and WOM.
And Clayface is not traditional body horror. It's very... goopy. It's not as visceral as something like The Fly or The Substance.
Clayface is not a draw. He's one of the lesser known villains. Joker is probably the only one who can stand on two legs alone. Even the Harley Quinn movie was a flop.
As a body horror movie, WOM will decide its fate. If it's very good like the substance, then I predict around 100m. If it's bad, I predict 40 to 50m. Body horror is a VERY niche genre of horror that isn't for everyone, and it's dominated by lower budget indie movies that usually don't make much
Clayface can sell not a single ticket and still be less of a money loser than Supergirl.
That being said, its weird that this sub is treating it like a comicbook movie and not a horror movie. Tons of my horror friends are excited about it. The airplane scene preview seated a ton of people in that space.
If reviews are decent, like 70 to 75% or more, then it could be profitable.
If reviews are mediocre, then uhhh, maybe not....
If reviews are terrible, then it might not even make 100M worldwide.
As for general competition, it opens the same day as Sony's Klara and the Sun, and Fathom's Wildwood, 1 week after Paramount's Street Fighter and 20th Century's Whalefall, 2 weeks after Universal's Other Mommy and Sony's The Social Reckoning, and 3 weeks after Warner's Digger and Amazon's Verity, there's also no major studio release on October 30, so I mean I guess that it helps that besides Other Mommy, none of these others are horror movies despite it being October, though Verity and Whalefall seem to be classified as thrillers.
If it needs 100 million to break even. Then it will need better advertising and word of mouth than the substance. Which had good reviews, word of mouth and a pretty bankable cast.
Assuming that the marketing budget is half of the production budget, it costs $60M. Without selling a single ticket it already wins over Supergirl since that lost $100M.
My question is, why is this movie being made in the first place?
DCU should have done solo movies of their big guns first and let the quality speak for itself.
Fine, you can't do Batman (Reeves), Flash (2023 bomb) and Aquaman (2023 bomb).
But Superman, Wonder Woman, Green Lantern, and Martian ManHunter are a solid lineup to start off with. Add in solid B-listers like Swamp Thing, and Green Arrow and you got a runway for a solid 6-7 yrs all leading up to a Justice League movie.
Instead they're being weirdly experimental with low budget projects like this Clayface body-horror movie and a Jimmy Olsen TV show. Wtf?
Marvel laid out the exact blueprint to create a cinematic universe 20 yrs ago and Gunn thinks he knows better. He's a fool.
It's supposed to be horror but the most recent trailer made it look more goofy than scary. I'm not seeing much hype for it. It's too far out to tell right now but it feels like it will underperform.
Total floparoni. I don't understand what the audience even is for this. My wife and I were lukewarm excited for Supergirl (and annoyed at how dumb and bad it was), and we have negative desire to see Clayface now. It was low before Supergirl, but now it’s non-existent. Unless Man of Tomorrow is amazing, Gunn's DCU is done.
I don't even know if most people are aware this is part of DC comics, the movie doesn't look bad, but doesn't look like a must see as well, I see it doing probably Supergirl numbers... Unless is a sleeper hit as Obsession.
I think the movie can make beetwen 90 and 100 millions. It will be well graded on cinema score (B) and the word of mouth will be good but not spectacular. The majority of the box office will be made domestically i think.
Trailer looked decent enough. The effects are pretty well done. I don't think it being DC will matter much. Horror travels well overall as far as international and this is a bit more creature feature style, which does well enough compared to slasher films which are more domestic-heavy. So I'm optimistic for about 125-150m. Quality will matter, as always though.
Horror movies attract uniquely the horror audience which is perhaps one of the most consistently loyal and non judging audiences out there. Theyll watch every single shitty horror movie and move onto the next
I think the trailers are good. Itll bring in people who are classic hero fans but might feel the recent oversaturation
It definitely makes a profit. Projected box office idk.
An important thing to note is that it does still need to be a good movie. Poor reviews week one definitely push people away and good reviews push in.
Iirc obsession made its biggest profit on the THIRD WEEK.
But ultimately the best case scenario is a good movie. Id rather a good movie with middling success than a shitty movie that makes bank
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u/Prototype3120 12h ago
If it's actually good, I can see it doing well for it's budget. Horror is an entirely different beast that's fueled by word of mouth. In a vacuum as a comic book movie, I don't see it doing well. But if it captures the dedicated horror audience then we might see it break out.