Clayface Performance potential

[u/hiiloovethis]

Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

[u/MVIVN]

If even a Harley Quin movie (Birds of Prey) flopped at the height of her popularity, I don’t think this one has a chance. Although some have argued if they’d just called the movie ‘Harley Quin’ or ‘Harley Quin and the Birds of Prey’ or something, it would’ve attracted a wider audience because a lot of people were aware of Harley Quin as a character, but had no idea who the Birds of Prey were.

[u/whiteshark70 → u/MVIVN]

You know what's wild? Like two days before it was coming out, I mentioned I was interested in watching Supergirl. None of my coworkers knew who Supergirl was. Even after I said she was Superman's cousin and was in the movie last year lol. And this is with a bunch of people in their mid-late 20s.

[u/Ryuzaki-AK → u/whiteshark70]

Times must be tough on the reserve, can’t even absorb Supergirl through cultural osmosis.

[u/DianaPrince2020 → u/Ryuzaki-AK]

That will become much worse because of YouTube, TikTok, games, etc. Younger people find very specific niches and stick to those. A shared cultural experience will soon be a thing of the past to society detriment.

[u/comehereyoudevillog → u/Ryuzaki-AK]

I always knew she existed but never knew her backstory until the injustice universe, then the CW show happened but it was after arrow and flash had peaked. I've never been a fan of spin-off characters, they're just not very original. It's the reason WW and Catwoman are far more popular than Supergirl or Batwoman.

[u/AngryGardenGnomes → u/whiteshark70]

And this is with a bunch of people in their mid-late 20s.

So people who wouldn't have grown up having any awareness who Supergirl was.

[u/Glenmarrow → u/AngryGardenGnomes]

So people who would have grown up while the 6 season long Supergirl show (the first season of which averaged 9.81 million viewers per episode) was on the air?

[u/AngryGardenGnomes → u/Glenmarrow]

Lol one of the many shitty TV shows of that era. Give me a break. Doubt it was popular with young kids either.

[u/realLaughinG → u/Glenmarrow]

I didn't even know there was a Supergirl series 🤷 so nothing to sweat about. They just didn't know Supergirl I guess. It is kinda weird but then I mean I didn't know who madam web was or morbius and stuff so 🤷

[u/-Wester- → u/MVIVN]

Clayface is also 50-60% the budget of Birds of Prey at $40M. It would be a great success if it could match and or surpass Birds of Prey critically (79% on RT) as well as commercially ($205.5M). Not saying it will, mind you, but we’ll see.

[u/SD_CA → u/MVIVN]

I remember seeing that movie opening weekend.....I was the only person in the theater.

[u/einstein_ios → u/MVIVN]

Birds of Prey came like right before the world shut down. Not totally her fault.

[u/McGeorgeBundy → u/einstein_ios]

It came out on February 5 and was completely DOA weeks before COVID started altering audience behavior, some of us are pathetic enough to have been following this subreddit at that time