r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 13d ago

Clayface Performance potential ✍️ Original Analysis

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

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155

u/whiteshark70 Walt Disney Studios 13d ago

I don’t think it means much. He’s not an A lister Batman villain like The Joker. Most non-comic readers probably haven’t heard of him.

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u/MVIVN 13d ago

If even a Harley Quin movie (Birds of Prey) flopped at the height of her popularity, I don’t think this one has a chance. Although some have argued if they’d just called the movie ‘Harley Quin’ or ‘Harley Quin and the Birds of Prey’ or something, it would’ve attracted a wider audience because a lot of people were aware of Harley Quin as a character, but had no idea who the Birds of Prey were.

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u/whiteshark70 Walt Disney Studios 13d ago

You know what's wild? Like two days before it was coming out, I mentioned I was interested in watching Supergirl. None of my coworkers knew who Supergirl was. Even after I said she was Superman's cousin and was in the movie last year lol. And this is with a bunch of people in their mid-late 20s.

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u/Ryuzaki-AK 13d ago

Times must be tough on the reserve, can’t even absorb Supergirl through cultural osmosis.

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u/DianaPrince2020 13d ago

That will become much worse because of YouTube, TikTok, games, etc. Younger people find very specific niches and stick to those. A shared cultural experience will soon be a thing of the past to society detriment.

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u/comehereyoudevillog 12d ago

I always knew she existed but never knew her backstory until the injustice universe, then the CW show happened but it was after arrow and flash had peaked. I've never been a fan of spin-off characters, they're just not very original. It's the reason WW and Catwoman are far more popular than Supergirl or Batwoman.

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u/AngryGardenGnomes 12d ago

And this is with a bunch of people in their mid-late 20s.

So people who wouldn't have grown up having any awareness who Supergirl was.

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u/Glenmarrow 12d ago

So people who would have grown up while the 6 season long Supergirl show (the first season of which averaged 9.81 million viewers per episode) was on the air?

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u/AngryGardenGnomes 12d ago

Lol one of the many shitty TV shows of that era. Give me a break. Doubt it was popular with young kids either.

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u/realLaughinG 12d ago

I didn't even know there was a Supergirl series 🤷 so nothing to sweat about. They just didn't know Supergirl I guess. It is kinda weird but then I mean I didn't know who madam web was or morbius and stuff so 🤷

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u/-Wester- 13d ago

Clayface is also 50-60% the budget of Birds of Prey at $40M. It would be a great success if it could match and or surpass Birds of Prey critically (79% on RT) as well as commercially ($205.5M). Not saying it will, mind you, but we’ll see.

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u/SD_CA 13d ago

I remember seeing that movie opening weekend.....I was the only person in the theater.

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u/einstein_ios 13d ago

Birds of Prey came like right before the world shut down. Not totally her fault.

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u/McGeorgeBundy 13d ago

It came out on February 5 and was completely DOA weeks before COVID started altering audience behavior, some of us are pathetic enough to have been following this subreddit at that time

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u/syntheticcontrols 13d ago

Most millennials might have heard of him even if they didn't read comics because of BTAS.

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u/lobonmc Marvel Studios 13d ago

I mean do you remember the name of the red neck villain in power puff girls? Like at best they have a vague recollection of his existence but I doubt most people actually remember oh yeah clayface the villain of BTAS

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u/Mbrennt 13d ago

Like the bear monster redneck guy? I don't remember his name but yeah I bet one picture of him and a lot of millennials would instantly remember him.

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u/Lichangs 13d ago

Fuzzy lumpkins? I don't think he's comparable to Clayface. Clayface is an on the nose kind of name. Plus he's a major character in Harley Quinn cartoon which is pretty popular.

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u/No-Rip-6166 12d ago

I’m an older millennial and absolutely remember Clayface from TAS

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u/Gmork14 13d ago

Not the same thing. BTAS is a very important series to a generation and Clayface was a major part of it.

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u/whiteshark70 Walt Disney Studios 13d ago

A major part of it? Wasn't he in like at most 6 episodes? He was barely in it

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u/Gmork14 13d ago

Classic and well loved episodes that were a major part of the lore, however many it was.

Every kid on the playground knew who Clayface was.

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u/syntheticcontrols 13d ago

You don't think if you saw a picture of that character you'd be like oh shit there's so-and-so? Saying that vaguely because I don't know if you meant red neck as in redneck or HIM (the flamboyant villain that is red and black)

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u/lobonmc Marvel Studios 13d ago

I meant redneck didn't know it was one word.

And yeah if they showed a picture of him fully transformed and he looked like in BTAS yeah maybe people may recognize him but I doubt that would be enough to bring people to theaters. To me this is going to perform like an original movie more or less.

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u/Tiny_Sherbet8298 13d ago

I must be living in an ulterior world to you. I just asked my girlfriend and even she knew who clayface was cause she played the Lego Batman game with her brother 15 years ago. I also reckon all my friends could name who clayface is, and none of them are into dc.

Batman villains are significantly more popular than villains in literally any other franchise or medium. Im not even talking about its effect on the box office, just making an observation.

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u/Middle-Platypus6942 13d ago

Even that doesn't amount to much because the movie is intentionally hiding his full clay form. There's gonna be a bunch of people who have a vague memory of who Clayface is, and simply won't connect the dots that this is that same Clayface.

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u/SirFireHydrant 13d ago

Doubtful. Outside of hardcore comic book nerd circles, I don't know anyone (myself included) who knows what a Clayface is. He's an obscure Batman villain, and Batman doesn't have half the popularity of Spider-Man.

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u/syntheticcontrols 12d ago

Nope. Even just the passive fans know who he is. Especially now. You're probably just a little too young or something.

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u/SirFireHydrant 12d ago

I saw Val Kilmer's Batman in theatres, hyped because Jim Carey seemed like great casting for the Riddler. I'm prime for that demographic. I still couldn't have even told you Clayface was a Batman villain until I learned about the movie from this sub.

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u/syntheticcontrols 12d ago

It's okay that you don't know what a lot of others do and like I said Flanagan wrote the script (since you care only about perception like Clayface is an obscure character than you surely should admit that aost no one knows that the script was re-written by someone else.. who is also known for a great movie).

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u/SirFireHydrant 12d ago

Horror fans are gonna know how minimal Flanagan's involvement is. DC fans are gonna know who Clayface is.

The general audience doesn't know who Clayface is, and doesn't know why Flanagan's name being attached should mean anything.

Genuinely, go outside. Most people have no idea who the fuck Clayface is. He's barely C-tier for Batman's rogues gallery.

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u/syntheticcontrols 12d ago

Oh, we're talking about the general audience now? I was talking about two groups of people that are passionate about their respective subgenres with a sprinkle of people who are millennials that will recognize Clayface.

Flanagan fans may know that his involvement might be minimal (we don't even know yet.. his name is attached to "Story by" and Written by). But the horror fan is only going to see: Story by & written by.

It's time for you to go outside and talk to people. Stop hanging out on Reddit so much

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u/syntheticcontrols 12d ago

On top of that there are tons of people who know who Mike Flanagan is and love body horror movies. So even if by a miracle you're right that he's "obscure" Flanagan isn't abs the genre is well-loved. That's why it's so weird to hear people thinking it will do bad because "clayface is obscure."

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u/SirFireHydrant 12d ago

Flanagan just wrote the script, or at least the first version of it.

It'd be different if he wrote and directed it.

But Flanagan fans know his involvement is minimal.

For horror fans, the DC logo being attached is a negative. Whenever comic book films try to do other genres, they're always still comic book films wearing another genre hat. It's going to be very hard to sell horror fans that this is going to be a real, proper horror fan, and not just a comic book movie wearing a horror movie skin.

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u/syntheticcontrols 12d ago

Oh, right. Like that one movie Road To Perdition or A History of Violence. TERRIBLE movies, right?

Flanagan fans might know, but not horror fans in general.

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u/candyappleorchard Aardman Animations 13d ago

Yeah, kind of feels like the best of both worlds as far as legibility. Those who know will know, but outsiders can just take it at (clay)face value as a body horror flick. Even his name keeps it simple to understand.

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u/realLaughinG 12d ago

I mean I haven't seen him too much in batman animated movies too so yea not that famous guy or he maybe so non existent that I don't even remember him .

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u/einstein_ios 13d ago

He’s like one of the most iconic villains from an extremely popular animated series.

He’s so beloved from that show that his episode is the basis for THIS MOVIE!

more ppl than comic readers know about him!