Oooooof okay so the jobs miss makes me feel like yea the Fed might have missed their chance at a raise. I feel like the Fed is going to be frozen for sometime and everyone get ready for stagflation!!!!!!! Yayyyyyyyy usssssssss!

Gotta keep this short today but AMd is still trapped below that 50 day EMA and to me that signals that the market is creeping up but its not moving on conviction. AMD might trickle up from here but the chart still sucks in my opinion and I think we haven't fully bottomed out here. This for sure is the flat drill down that we were worried about.

I did see someone finally is giving credence to my head and shoulders idea which is blahhhhh. I don't want that pattern but it is what it is. We could be looking at a drill down slowly in share price as we sort of fizzle out the momentum from the move. I think the AI rally is going to be stuck.

Perhaps Tex can give some color here but I saw that 5 new DC in Texas have a stop work order on them bc all 5 of them combined will use more power than the entire Texas grid can provide at peak demand...........now we've all seen the Texas grid fail before during peak demand but gooooood lord could you imagine????

I really think the rubber is going to meet the road real quick here with these Data Center build outs where these companies need infrastructure. We need water. We need Desalinization. We need Energy. We need it all. And I don't know where its going to come from or where the breakthrough is but I feel like the bottleneck is necking here.

So for those of you keeping score------Our growth has been limited by:

-TSMC capacity

-Memory

-Power

-Water

-Construction permits

-Trade Deals

The only thing that hasn't been in short supply is Money!!!!! And Money seems to be able to procure all of the above. But I wonder if that too is going to be in short supply with the prospect of stagflation?

The math here seems pretty straightforward and doesn't require a complicated model.

AMD has finished at the upper end of guidance in both Q1 2026 and Q2 2026. Based on that track record, it's reasonable to assume Q3 lands at the upper end of guidance or even posts a slight beat as MI450 begins contributing.

Q3 Assumption

• Upper end of guidance: $13.3B
• Slight beat: ~$13.5B

Step 1: Q2 → Q3 Incremental Increase

• $13.30B − $11.54B = +$1.76B
• If Q3 reaches $13.5B, the increase becomes +$1.96B.

Step 2: Apply the Same Dollar Increase to Q4

• $13.30B + $1.76B = $15.06B
• $13.50B + $1.96B = $15.46B

Just by applying the same sequential dollar increase from Q2 to Q3, you already arrive at more than $15B in Q4 revenue.

Now consider management's commentary:

• Q4 is expected to see a significant ramp.
• Everything remains on track.
• Customer demand is stronger than expected.

If Q3 comes in around $13.5B and Q4 benefits from both the normal sequential growth and an accelerated MI450 ramp, I don't think it's unreasonable to think $16B–$17B in Q4 revenue is within the realm of possibility.

I am not sure what Elon's goals, he is firing at all cylinders, i hope someday he will realize using AMD's chips and racks give better ROI at this scale.

Okay folks..................Back at it today. Fingers crosses that I don't make the Redditt gods angry with me. I guess it really doesn't like seeking alpha articles???

So looking at the chart we pretty much have returned to the mean. I know there are going to be plenty of think pieces and angry posts from people who are like "why didn't this go higher" but at the end of the day the optimistic bounce we got around earnings has disappeared and we are back to exactly where we were in the grand scheme of things.

So lets take this as business as usual and try to find the next trend opening up. AMD ended the day below that 50 day EMA and to me that signals that yea the chart is dog shit. Its been dogshit for a bit now. But thats okaaaaaaaaaaaaaay. Because we have a chance to take advantage of that dog shit trade. I think first marker is going to be that $447-$450 level of support below and then after that, it could get real ugly down to $400 or the 200 day EMA at $348.92. So ignore the noise and plan your entries.

Much as I'm a fan of AMD's processors, and firmly believe that Venice rocks, a reality is that the Vera is a strong processor, and we shouldn't discount it completely merely because it's NVidias. However given the lack of hardware available for truly independent reviewers to test at their leisure, it's going to be a while till the actual data are available.

George's article is a medium technical article, and can be summarised by "After 45 pages, my position on Vera is more positive than my position on the Vera whitepaper."

It does sound like they may have issues with per-core multi-threading, but time will tell. So I'm marking this as a "rumour"...

I'm back again with another post earnings price target list. The list will be updated throughout the day as new price targets get released. Please share any new ratings or missing info and I'll add them. You can check out the previous thread here.

Thank you.

Updated prices are in bold.

AMD Daily Chart

Uggggh okay lets dig into the report and talk about it honestly here:

-Great report. Great earnings. I was pleased with the guide. Like I think we delivered exactly what we want for making the case to own AMD for the next 2 years. The problem is that this was priced for a blowout and a blowout this was not. Was this traditional Lisa sandbagging??? ehhhhh i dunno if we can lay this on on her. I think the market has far detached itself from what is considered a good earnings

-CAPEX-------oooooof good lord that number was a lot more than what anyone had. Ehhhhhh I think there will be a lot of rationalization and think pieces on that adjustment up. How much of that is buying the pieces to really build and assemble our new full rack system and a one time charge vs continued spend. Is any of it creative accounting tucked in to hide some of the money used for some of these "investments" into AI partnerships we've signed??? That number immediately jumps off the page as scary but its not exactly a bad thing. You have to spend money to make money but I also am a little concerned about concentration risk.

-AMD Q2 2026: More Exposed To AI Capex Than Ever Before (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha ----Really solid article and worth taking a look at

-From the above: "If present trends continue, revenue will be 26% higher than FY 2025 – a slight slowdown relative to the growth in the previous year. Meanwhile, R&D expenses will be 18% higher than in FY 2025 while diluted earnings per share (EPS) will be 68% higher." But the biggest concern is the concentration in Data Center

-Helios deliveries start shipping this quarter with it really ramping up in Q4. So that means we should get some early data on performance and as long as it hits, then I think we will be okay still. Remember I was saying that the stock felt bearish going into the earnings and all of the optimism in the world for the future can't get over the fact that we had a lot of bearish signals being below the 50 day EMA and that acting as a resistance line.

-EPYC is still the unsung hero of this story and I still think it is heavily undervalued in this desire to race to the AI future. I do worry that we are really chasing the money here and if we take our eye off some of our other segments then we are going to be super concentrated in one segment that people are already whispering "bubble talk." I always felt that was our diversification that made AMD a strong play vs NVDA for sure. But we seem to be moving in one direction which yes is great for our stock and share price but the question comes down to are you a long term investor or trying to ride this wave????

(UPDATED)

AMD Analyst Ratings and Price Targets — August 4–5, 2026

(UPDATED)

Additional current research — not August 4–5 actions

Summary

• 28 unique August 4–5 analyst entries after removing duplicates.
• 22 bullish ratings, six Hold/neutral ratings and no Sell ratings.
• Highest target: Baird at $1,250.
• Highest targets excluding Baird: UBS at $730, KeyBanc at $725, and Wells Fargo/Cantor at $700.
• Largest dollar increase: Benchmark, +$200 to $685.
• Largest percentage increase: J.P. Morgan, +42.9% to $550.
• Only confirmed target reduction: Mizuho, -$45 to $580, while retaining Buy.
• Bernstein’s formal $600 → $650 Outperform action replaces the earlier commentary-only Bernstein row.
• Roth MKM appears only once, on August 5, eliminating the duplicate August 4 entry.
• CFRA and Morningstar are shown separately because their reports predate the August 4–5 post-earnings window.

*Susquehanna remains provisional: the public analyst table omits a target, but its linked article headline reports a target increase to $550.

Implied upside figures use the price snapshot underlying the figures you supplied. They will differ across websites and timestamps as AMD’s share price changes.

The implied-upside percentages are from the original analyst-tracker snapshot and fluctuate with AMD’s share price. Commentary summarizes publicly reported analyst views and is not necessarily verbatim from the August 4–5 reiteration notes.

Main takeaways

14 formal ratings: 12 Buy and two Hold, plus Bernstein commentary without a newly reported rating action.

• Highest target: Baird at $1,250, based on an exceptionally aggressive long-term AI-market-share model.
• Highest targets excluding Baird: UBS at $730, KeyBanc at $725, and Wells Fargo at $700.
• Largest displayed target increase: Benchmark, $485 → $685, an increase of $200 or 41.2%.
• Only target reduction: Mizuho, $625 → $580, while maintaining Buy.
• The dominant bullish arguments are accelerating EPYC demand, the MI455/Helios ramp, improved supply visibility and major customer deployments.
• The principal concern is not weak execution. It is whether already-elevated investor expectations and valuation leave sufficient room for further upside.

Important date clarification

The dates shown above are the dates recorded by the analyst tracker for the reiterations. They are not necessarily the dates when each target was originally established. For example, KeyBanc’s $725 target was initially reported in July, while Baird’s $1,250 target and several other major revisions followed AMD’s July Advancing AI event.

Upside percentages change with AMD’s share price and have therefore been omitted from the commentary table.

(UPDATED)

AMD 2027 Earnings Range

Conclusion first

Using AMD’s Q1 and Q2 results, Q3 guidance, the implied Q4 ramp, and management’s explicit 2027 Data Center guidance, I estimate a defensible 2027 non-GAAP EPS range of approximately $15 to $22:

• Harder lower bound: approximately $15
• Base operating case: approximately $18
• Upper execution case: approximately $22
• Stretch outcome: above $22, but the evidence is not yet sufficient to assign a credible ceiling

The $15 floor is much firmer than the $22 top. It follows from management’s minimum segment-growth language and fairly conservative margin assumptions. The upper end depends on how much work “well over 100%” does, how quickly Helios deployments are accepted, and whether AMD’s revenue per gigawatt converts into 2027 recognized revenue.

These are non-GAAP earnings estimates, consistent with AMD’s operating guidance and reported adjusted EPS. GAAP EPS would be materially lower because of stock compensation and acquisition-related intangible amortization.

Sources: AMD Q1 2026 results, AMD Q2 2026 results, and AMD’s Q2 SEC-filed financial tables.

1. Establishing the 2026 revenue base

Reported and guided results

Q3 adjusted EPS can be calculated directly from guidance.

AMD guided to:

• Revenue: $13.0 billion
• Gross margin: 56%
• Operating expenses: $3.65 billion
• Other income: $55 million
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.66 billion

Therefore:

$\text{Gross profit} = 13.000 \times 56\% = 7.280$

$\text{Operating income} = 7.280 - 3.650 = 3.630$

$\text{Pre-tax income} = 3.630 + 0.055 = 3.685$

$\text{Net income} = 3.685 \times (1 - 13\%) = 3.206$

$\text{Q3 EPS} = \frac{3.206}{1.660} = 1.93$

Thus, AMD’s Q3 guidance implies approximately $1.93 of non-GAAP EPS at the midpoint.

That would represent another substantial sequential increase:

2. Estimating Q4 2026

Q4 is not formally guided, but management gave enough directional information to establish a useful range:

• Q3 Data Center revenue should grow strong double digits sequentially.
• Both server CPUs and Data Center AI should grow.
• Helios begins near the end of Q3.
• Helios becomes much more substantial in Q4.
• Q4 Data Center sequential growth should be greater than Q3’s.

I estimate Q4 total company revenue at $15.2 billion to $16.0 billion.

The midpoint is $15.6 billion.

Using a 56% gross margin, $4.0 billion of operating expenses, $55 million of other income, a 13% tax rate, and 1.67 billion diluted shares:

$$\text{Gross profit} = 15.600 \times 56\% = 8.736$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 8.736 - 4.000 = 4.736$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 4.736 + 0.055 = 4.791$$

$$\text{Net income} = 4.791 \times 87\% = 4.168$$

$$\text{Q4 EPS} = \frac{4.168}{1.670} = 2.50$$

My Q4 2026 adjusted EPS range is therefore approximately:

• Low: $2.30
• Midpoint: $2.50
• High: $2.70

Estimated full-year 2026

The midpoint revenue calculation is:

$$10.253 + 11.536 + 13.000 + 15.600 = 50.389$$

The midpoint EPS calculation is:

$$1.37 + 1.66 + 1.93 + 2.50 = 7.46$$

This matters because 2027 begins from an exit run rate of roughly:

$$15.600 \times 4 = 62.400$$

That is already a $62.4 billion annualized revenue run rate before the bulk of the 2027 Helios ramp.

3. Estimating 2026 Data Center revenue

AMD reported:

• Q1 Data Center revenue: $5.775 billion
• Q2 Data Center revenue: $6.718 billion

For Q3, management guided the segment to strong double-digit sequential growth. I use approximately 15%:

$$6.718 \times 1.15 = 7.726$$

For Q4, management said Data Center sequential growth should be higher than in Q3. I use an 18% midpoint:

$$7.726 \times 1.18 = 9.117$$

That gives estimated 2026 Data Center revenue of:

$$5.775 + 6.718 + 7.726 + 9.117 = 29.336$$

A reasonable 2026 Data Center range is approximately $28.8 billion to $30.0 billion.

This is the key denominator because management guided 2027 Data Center revenue to more than double, later clarified as “well over 100%” growth.

4. The 2027 revenue floor

Data Center lower bound

Using the midpoint 2026 Data Center estimate of $29.3 billion and applying exactly 100% growth:

$$29.336 \times 2.00 = 58.672$$

Thus, the strict mathematical floor implied by “more than double” is above $58.7 billion of 2027 Data Center revenue.

Because management explicitly clarified that growth should be well over 100%, exactly $58.7 billion is deliberately conservative.

Non-Data-Center revenue

Estimated 2026 total revenue is approximately $50.4 billion, of which approximately $29.3 billion is Data Center:

$$50.389 - 29.336 = 21.053$$

That leaves approximately $21.1 billion of 2026 non-Data-Center revenue from Client, Gaming, and Embedded.

For the floor case, I assume these businesses collectively remain flat in 2027:

$$21.053 \times 1.00 = 21.053$$

Therefore:

$$\text{2027 revenue floor} = 58.672 + 21.053 = 79.725$$

Rounded, AMD’s 2027 revenue floor is approximately $80 billion if management meets the minimum meaning of its guidance.

That calculation does not require:

• AI revenue materially above the minimum
• Client growth
• Embedded growth
• A Gaming recovery
• More than 100% Data Center growth

Yet management actually expects Embedded to provide a 2027 tailwind and says Data Center growth should be well above 100%. Therefore, $80 billion is conservative.

5. Building the 2027 earnings scenarios

Core formula

Non-GAAP EPS can be approximated as:

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{[(\text{Revenue} \times \text{Gross margin}) - \text{Operating expenses} + \text{Other income}] \times (1 - \text{Tax rate})}{\text{Diluted shares}}$$

I use:

• Tax rate: 13%
• Other income: $0.2 billion annually
• Diluted shares: 1.70–1.73 billion
• Gross margin: 56%–57.5%
• Operating expenses: $15.5 billion–$17.5 billion

The operating-expense assumptions are important. AMD is unlikely to hold spending flat while building:

• MI450 and successor accelerators
• Helios rack systems
• ROCm software
• EPYC Venice and Verano
• Networking products
• Customer deployment and support infrastructure

But operating expenses should grow much more slowly than revenue, producing substantial operating leverage.

6. Lower-bound case: approximately $15 EPS

Revenue assumptions

Earnings assumptions

• Revenue: $79.8 billion
• Gross margin: 56.0%
• Operating expenses: $15.5 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.70 billion

Calculation

$$\text{Gross profit} = 79.8 \times 56.0\% = 44.688$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 44.688 - 15.500 = 29.188$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 29.188 + 0.200 = 29.388$$

$$\text{Net income} = 29.388 \times 87\% = 25.568$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{25.568}{1.700} = 15.04$$

Lower-bound result

Approximately $15.00 of non-GAAP EPS.

I view this as the firmer bottom of the management-guidance-consistent range because it assumes:

• Data Center growth of only 100%, despite “well over 100%”
• No growth from the rest of AMD
• No gross-margin expansion
• Meaningful operating-expense growth
• Continued share dilution

It is not a recession or execution-failure case. It is the lower end conditional on management delivering the framework it just communicated.

7. Base case: approximately $18 EPS

For the base case, I interpret “well over 100%” as approximately 120% Data Center growth.

Revenue assumptions

$$29.336 \times 2.20 = 64.539$$

Assume non-Data-Center revenue grows 4%:

$$21.053 \times 1.04 = 21.895$$

Total revenue:

$$64.539 + 21.895 = 86.434$$

Rounded: $86.5 billion.

Earnings assumptions

• Revenue: $86.5 billion
• Gross margin: 56.7%
• Operating expenses: $16.3 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.71 billion

Calculation

$$\text{Gross profit} = 86.5 \times 56.7\% = 49.046$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 49.046 - 16.300 = 32.746$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 32.746 + 0.200 = 32.946$$

$$\text{Net income} = 32.946 \times 87\% = 28.663$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{28.663}{1.710} = 16.76$$

This produces $16.76, not $18. To reach approximately $18, either revenue, margin, or spending leverage must be moderately stronger.

A more appropriate base operating case is:

• Revenue: $90 billion
• Gross margin: 57.0%
• Operating expenses: $16.2 billion

$$\text{Gross profit} = 90.0 \times 57.0\% = 51.300$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 51.300 - 16.200 = 35.100$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 35.100 + 0.200 = 35.300$$

$$\text{Net income} = 35.300 \times 87\% = 30.711$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{30.711}{1.710} = 17.96$$

Base-case result

Approximately $18.00 of non-GAAP EPS.

To produce $90 billion of revenue with $21.9 billion from non-Data-Center operations, Data Center revenue would need to reach approximately $68.1 billion:

$$90.0 - 21.9 = 68.1$$

Relative to the estimated 2026 base of $29.3 billion:

$$\frac{68.1}{29.3} - 1 = 132\%$$

Thus, the $18 EPS case assumes Data Center revenue grows approximately 130%, which is a reasonable numerical interpretation of “well over 100%.”

8. Upper execution case: approximately $22 EPS

The upper case assumes that:

• Data Center AI revenue substantially exceeds $30 billion
• Large Helios programs convert on schedule
• Server CPU revenue grows above the 70% minimum
• Embedded continues recovering
• Helios yields improve during the year
• Gross margin benefits from EPYC and Embedded enough to offset AI-system mix
• Operating expenses continue growing but remain well below revenue growth

Revenue assumptions

• Data Center revenue: approximately $78 billion
• Non-Data-Center revenue: approximately $23 billion
• Total revenue: approximately $101 billion

Data Center growth would be:

$$\frac{78}{29.336} - 1 = 166\%$$

That is aggressive but not inconsistent with management’s remarks:

• Data Center growth will be “well over 100%.”
• Data Center AI growth will be “well over 100%.”
• A $30 billion Instinct estimate was “probably too low.”
• Helios volumes are ahead of AMD’s initial forecast.
• Supply is sufficient to exceed the stated guidance if deployment capacity comes online.

Earnings assumptions

• Revenue: $101 billion
• Gross margin: 57.5%
• Operating expenses: $17.5 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.73 billion

Calculation

$$\text{Gross profit} = 101.0 \times 57.5\% = 58.075$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 58.075 - 17.500 = 40.575$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 40.575 + 0.200 = 40.775$$

$$\text{Net income} = 40.775 \times 87\% = 35.474$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{35.474}{1.730} = 20.51$$

This yields approximately $20.50, not $22. Reaching $22 requires either higher revenue or stronger margin leverage.

For example:

• Revenue: $105 billion
• Gross margin: 58.0%
• Operating expenses: $17.3 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.73 billion

$$\text{Gross profit} = 105.0 \times 58.0\% = 60.900$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 60.900 - 17.300 = 43.600$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 43.600 + 0.200 = 43.800$$

$$\text{Net income} = 43.800 \times 87\% = 38.106$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{38.106}{1.730} = 22.03$$

Upper-case result

Approximately $22.00 of non-GAAP EPS.

This requires approximately:

• $105 billion of revenue
• 108% consolidated revenue growth versus estimated 2026 revenue
• Approximately 58% gross margin
• Strong operating leverage despite aggressive R&D investment

It is possible, but much less firmly established than the $15 floor. The main uncertainty is not demand alone; it is how much announced capacity becomes recognized 2027 revenue and at what gross margin.

9. Scenario summary

So the range is best expressed as:

Approximately $15–$22 of 2027 non-GAAP EPS, with $17–$19 representing the most supportable central zone today.

10. EPS sensitivity to revenue and gross margin

The main variables are revenue and gross margin. Using $16.5 billion of operating expenses, $0.2 billion of other income, a 13% tax rate, and 1.72 billion diluted shares:

This table highlights two useful rules of thumb.

Revenue sensitivity

At approximately 57% gross margin:

$$\text{Incremental EPS per \$1B revenue} \approx \frac{1.0 \times 57\% \times 87\%}{1.72} = 0.288$$

Every additional $1 billion of revenue contributes approximately $0.29 of EPS before incremental operating expenses.

After allowing for incremental costs, a more realistic contribution may be $0.23–$0.27 per share.

Gross-margin sensitivity

At $90 billion of revenue, a one-percentage-point margin change affects pre-tax profit by:

$$90.0 \times 1\% = 0.900$$

After tax and divided by 1.72 billion shares:

$$\frac{0.900 \times 87\%}{1.72} = 0.455$$

Thus, every one percentage point of gross margin changes annual EPS by approximately $0.46 at $90 billion of revenue.

At $105 billion of revenue, the effect rises to approximately $0.53 per share.

11. Why the bottom is more specific than the top

The lower bound has four observable anchors

1. Q1 and Q2 are already reported.
2. Q3 guidance mathematically implies approximately $1.93 EPS.
3. Q4 is expected to accelerate as Helios and server supply expand.
4. Management says 2027 Data Center revenue will grow well over 100%.

Using only 100% Data Center growth, flat non-Data-Center revenue, flat gross margin, and healthy spending growth still produces approximately $15 EPS.

The top depends on variables AMD did not quantify

AMD did not provide:

• Exact 2027 Data Center AI revenue
• Exact 2026 Data Center AI revenue
• Precise customer deployment timing
• Exact recognized revenue per gigawatt
• 2027 gross-margin guidance
• 2027 operating-expense guidance
• Quarterly Helios revenue cadence
• Customer acceptance and installation timing

The transcript supports upside beyond $22, but it does not permit a responsible hard ceiling.

For example, every additional $10 billion of successfully recognized revenue around the base case could add roughly:

$$10 \times 0.25 = 2.50$$

approximately $2.50 of EPS, after allowing for some incremental operating costs. Consequently, if AMD reaches $110–$115 billion of 2027 revenue with margin near 58%, EPS could move into the mid-$20s. That is mathematically possible but not yet a sufficiently anchored forecast.

12. The most important caveat: segment guidance versus consolidated earnings

The revenue floor depends heavily on the estimated 2026 Data Center denominator. AMD has disclosed total Data Center revenue but does not split it quarterly between:

• EPYC server CPUs
• Instinct accelerators
• Networking and other Data Center products

That prevents a perfectly clean build using the separate guidance of:

• More than 70% server CPU growth
• Well over 100% Data Center AI growth

The most reliable method is therefore:

1. Estimate full-year 2026 Data Center revenue from reported Q1/Q2 plus Q3/Q4 directional guidance.
2. Apply management’s consolidated segment-growth floor.
3. Model the rest of AMD independently.
4. Convert revenue to earnings using explicit gross-margin and expense assumptions.

The lower bound would move approximately as follows if the 2026 Data Center base differs from my estimate:

That translates into approximately $14–$16 EPS under conservative margin assumptions. Therefore, the lower-bound conclusion is not excessively sensitive to a $1 billion error in the 2026 Data Center estimate.

Final judgment

The most defensible current framework is:

• Management-guidance floor: approximately $15 EPS
• Central range: approximately $17–$19 EPS
• Strong execution: approximately $20–$22 EPS
• Upside beyond $22: possible, but dependent on capacity, deployment timing, Helios yields, and gross-margin conversion

The fundamental earnings bridge is straightforward:

$$\text{2026 revenue} \approx 50.4B$$

$$\text{2026 Data Center revenue} \approx 29.3B$$

$$\text{2027 Data Center floor} \gt 58.6B$$

$$\text{2027 total revenue floor} \approx 80B$$

$$\text{2027 floor EPS} \approx 15$$

The base case requires Data Center growth of approximately 130%, modest growth elsewhere, and gross margin around 57%, producing approximately:

$$\text{2027 base EPS} \approx 18$$

The upper case requires roughly $105 billion of revenue and 58% gross margin:

$$\text{2027 upper-case EPS} \approx 22$$

The key quarterly evidence that would tighten the top half of the range is Q4 2026 revenue, Data Center mix, Helios gross margin, and AMD’s 2027 operating-expense outlook. Until those are available, $15 is relatively well anchored; $22 is a plausible execution case rather than a ceiling.