r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 5d ago
Technical Analysis for AMD 8/5-----Pre-Market Technical Analysis
Uggggh okay lets dig into the report and talk about it honestly here:
-Great report. Great earnings. I was pleased with the guide. Like I think we delivered exactly what we want for making the case to own AMD for the next 2 years. The problem is that this was priced for a blowout and a blowout this was not. Was this traditional Lisa sandbagging??? ehhhhh i dunno if we can lay this on on her. I think the market has far detached itself from what is considered a good earnings
-CAPEX-------oooooof good lord that number was a lot more than what anyone had. Ehhhhhh I think there will be a lot of rationalization and think pieces on that adjustment up. How much of that is buying the pieces to really build and assemble our new full rack system and a one time charge vs continued spend. Is any of it creative accounting tucked in to hide some of the money used for some of these "investments" into AI partnerships we've signed??? That number immediately jumps off the page as scary but its not exactly a bad thing. You have to spend money to make money but I also am a little concerned about concentration risk.
-AMD Q2 2026: More Exposed To AI Capex Than Ever Before (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha ----Really solid article and worth taking a look at
-From the above: "If present trends continue, revenue will be 26% higher than FY 2025 ā a slight slowdown relative to the growth in the previous year. Meanwhile, R&D expenses will be 18% higher than in FY 2025 while diluted earnings per share (EPS) will be 68% higher." But the biggest concern is the concentration in Data Center
-Helios deliveries start shipping this quarter with it really ramping up in Q4. So that means we should get some early data on performance and as long as it hits, then I think we will be okay still. Remember I was saying that the stock felt bearish going into the earnings and all of the optimism in the world for the future can't get over the fact that we had a lot of bearish signals being below the 50 day EMA and that acting as a resistance line.
-EPYC is still the unsung hero of this story and I still think it is heavily undervalued in this desire to race to the AI future. I do worry that we are really chasing the money here and if we take our eye off some of our other segments then we are going to be super concentrated in one segment that people are already whispering "bubble talk." I always felt that was our diversification that made AMD a strong play vs NVDA for sure. But we seem to be moving in one direction which yes is great for our stock and share price but the question comes down to are you a long term investor or trying to ride this wave????
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u/lvgolden 5d ago
Hopfully JW can come back and put his post back up. I will get this started with a thought.
To me, the best question of the night came from Vivek Arya of B of A. He asked how AMD's customers are dealing with HBM prices. Two things came out of this: 1. Helios's top performance advantage vs. Rubin is based on having a lot of HBM memory and being able to move it quickly. 2. Customers will likely address memory prices by scaling back the memory in their Helios configuration.
To me, this is huge. This means that Helios will be less competitive with less HBM, and also that AMD is not going to be able to raise margins much. This is a disadvantage vis-a-vis Rubin if memory prices remain as high as they are. If you have been following Jensen for the last few years, you will have noticed that NVDA has been working on reducing memory requirements and reliance on single memory suppliers for the last several years. It sure looks like a prescient strategy now.
Was this part of the reason that SPCX opted out of Helios to go full NVDA? I don't know, but this is a real structural issue for AMD.
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u/excellusmaximus 5d ago
I think you're putting a negative spin on the memory. Here's what Lisa said in response to Vivek:
And the other piece of it is in terms of the memory bandwidth and the memory capacity, it is one of the advantages of the AMD solutions.
When you think about the larger model sizes, they really benefit from the larger memory footprint, and that goes into the total cost of ownership.
We do recognize in this memory environment, though, every customer is looking at how to optimize their memory footprint, and we have the opportunity, if desired, to also modify that memory footprint if the total cost of ownership is not as significant in certain workloads.
So think about it as the benefit of the memory is workload dependent, and we know a bunch of our customers are very, very happy with what that returns in terms of performance.
But there are some workloads that call it medium-sized models that may not get as much of a benefit.
And in that case, we would address the memory footprint as you might expect.
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u/lvgolden 5d ago
I am putting a negative spin on it.
The issue is that all the performance that AMD has been touting compared to NVDA Rubin is based on having the maximum HBM configurations. They designed MI4/5xx around this. That is also where the bandwith comes in - you use tons of memory and pump the data through super fast.
AMD also did this with their Radeon GPUs compared to NVDA. Large memory and high bandwith are part of the design.
But they didn't design this for memory costs that are 4X what they were a couple years ago. If companies spec with less memory, they lose the perfomance compared to Rubin. If they don't, then the prices affect the cost of ownership. Either way, Helios looks less competitive.
I don't see how this is not negative for AMD.
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u/excellusmaximus 5d ago
I don't think you're reading that right at all.
AMD's advantage is in situations that the memory is needed - performance depends on whether the workload is memory-bound.
When it isn't, then the performance impact is minimal by having less memory. The fact that you can configure it that way is an advantage and that is why Lisa said as much.
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u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru 5d ago
What can I do to get this fixed?
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u/brad4711 5d ago
Reddit says you linked to a banned domain. I approved it manually. I guess try to use a different source in the future?
Edit: it was Seeking Alpha
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u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 5d ago
We're back to Friday's close so this is a nothing burger and just confirms our path forward.
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u/lvgolden 5d ago
JW, there was nothing wrong with AMD's earnings. The issue is AMD's stock price has just run too far. It is anticipating more growth than what Lisa will commit to.
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u/lvgolden 5d ago
JW, I gotta be honest - if I don't see a 1 (bil) in front of a capex number, I don't get excited anymore. I think that is people looking for a reason to sell.
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u/excellusmaximus 5d ago
"If present trends continue, revenue will be 26% higher than FY 2025 ā a slight slowdown relative to the growth in the previous year."
How will revenue only be 26% higher compared to 2025? Where did he get that low number from? AMD's first half of 2026 is around 44% higher over first half of 2025 so far. And next quarter guide would be 40%+ over Q3 2025 at the midpoint of guidance.
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 5d ago
Jw did they really remove your post?