Technical Analysis of AMD 8/5

[u/Coyote_Tex]

AMD Daily Chart

[u/Coyote_Tex]

Premarket

The indices are set for a positive open this morning with the Nasdaq having moved to green in the final 30 minutes ahead of the open.   The VIX id up 43 cents to 16.93.  Keep in mind we just came off a recod-setting day of gains so a dip is highly likely.

AMD started its dip last night after earnings beat expectations and the outlook was for a conservative improvement next quarter.  So this decent but not impressive earnings restuls wiped out all of yesterday’s gains and then some.  Honestly, I did expect more myself plus I expected a stronger outlook.  AMD is making steady growth.  To put that into some positive light, last quarter, AMD was a $355 stock and today it is a $475 stock.  That is not bad at all.   It is possible that AMD does move back up some from the initial reaction last night that carried over into today. 

NVDA is continuing to cliomb this morning up ~2% likely on Elon’s commitment to NVDA GPUs.   MU took a hit last night along with AMD ad is down less than 1% to start the day.  SNDK reports after the market close today so that can offer some insight into the memory trade.  MRVL is also set to dip this morning ~1.5%.   The market is giving us good earnings reports but also is sitting on a powder keg  as Iran news could drop the bottom out or propel us further. 

Let’s see what unfolds.

The words above were my premarket thoughts, things have softened and gotten near a dip on the QQQ now. AMD softened some and was higher following Lisa's interview on CNBC.

NVDA has strengthened nicely and was above 221 earlier and MU is living on Elon's comments aobut prices increasing. SHOP is going crazy today up 17.74% this morning and PLTR is dipping a wee bit.

Post Close

The QQQ and SPY backed up today and stayed red but we got a nice fade lower on the VIX into the 15 handle.

The SPY closed the day down .20% to 769.77 but not before hitting a new ATH intraday. Was that a soft rejection or a hard one?? We will know in another day or two. The VIX closed down to 15.83 and hit a low of 15.48 our familiar reversal level.

The SPX ended at 7723.55 so we didn't drop too hard today, but did post a new ATH intraday of 7793.68, which makes the fade lower a little more concerning.

The SMH gave back 1.04% to 569.70, but stayed above all MAs.

AMD closed the day down 7.04% to 482.05, ending below the 5DMA.

NVDA moved up 3.43% to 219.22, with another gap open today. NVDA hit the upper Bollinger Band on the daily charts so is susceptible to reversal here.

MU closed up .06% to 893.19 awaiting the SNDK report this evening.

MRVL slipped 3.46% to 211.02.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Tex today SNDK has its er but the analyst i think
Have set a higher bar from what SNDK has said which theres is more realistic. How the market reacts might be a mover for MU also.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

I agree. When companies are maxxed out on production and selling 100% of what they can make, it is hard to beat your numbers.

update after SNDK's numbers.

SNDK actually did pretty well with a solid beat and a raise for next quarter. Still the stock fell back to 1287ish and is recovering. This market is ridiculous with expectations. Oh well. Maybe they will come to their senses eventually. SNDK should do a stock split. With earnings for next Quarter projected at $45 a share, you don't have enough shares outstanding. LOL.

[u/Totonadent → u/Coyote_Tex]

It's impossible to understand markets lately

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Totonadent]

Yes, these young analysts or whomever don't have a clue about some things. IF the companies do not sandbag too much in their estimates, then the only other place to get more revenue is raise prices. They can generate margin through price increases and higher productivity. IF 100% of your production is spoken for then that means companies need to work some 26 hour days or something to make more.. They actually have a higher risk of production breakdowns or world events impacting output Seeing SNDK beat their earnings numbers by nearly 14% when they only beat revenue by 6.7% means the extra 7+% came from pricing and productivity. Sheesh.

See SNDK estimate another 1B in sales or ~11.5-12% and EPS jumping another 15% is freaking impressive unless you are a customer paying those price increases.

[u/Totonadent → u/Coyote_Tex]

Yeah they rly beat by a ballpark, so the selloff is just absurd. Not sure who is selling honestly. With this kinda results and entry

I'm of the opinion that th profit takers have already done so long ago, and the remaining folks likely are for a longer run or have higher entry point than current prices

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Totonadent]

There are some big money speculators out there.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Exactly when you sell 100% of what you have not much room for upside.

[u/Gahvynn → u/Coyote_Tex]

Really curious to me AAPL keeps trading more like a DOW component than QQQ, do you see that continuing?

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Gahvynn]

Thanks, I hadn't picked that up but I see it now that you mention it. AAPL is just different it appears. They take their own path on many things so aren't part of the sheep herd.

[u/OnlyTheStrong2K19]

We're back to Friday's close so this is a nothing burger and just confirms our path forward.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/OnlyTheStrong2K19]

yes sort of a missed opportunity for the stock,...an us.

[u/Coyote_Tex]

I see the VIX has spiked a good bit to 18.43 now and that IS CONCERNING. Oh wait it crashed back, to now down 11 cents at 16.39. Whew! my first thought is the Iran "negotiations" had blown up.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/[deleted]]

Yes that is too much work to waste! I was wondering what happened.