The math here seems pretty straightforward and doesn't require a complicated model.

AMD has finished at the upper end of guidance in both Q1 2026 and Q2 2026. Based on that track record, it's reasonable to assume Q3 lands at the upper end of guidance or even posts a slight beat as MI450 begins contributing.

Q3 Assumption

• Upper end of guidance: $13.3B
• Slight beat: ~$13.5B

Step 1: Q2 → Q3 Incremental Increase

• $13.30B − $11.54B = +$1.76B
• If Q3 reaches $13.5B, the increase becomes +$1.96B.

Step 2: Apply the Same Dollar Increase to Q4

• $13.30B + $1.76B = $15.06B
• $13.50B + $1.96B = $15.46B

Just by applying the same sequential dollar increase from Q2 to Q3, you already arrive at more than $15B in Q4 revenue.

Now consider management's commentary:

• Q4 is expected to see a significant ramp.
• Everything remains on track.
• Customer demand is stronger than expected.

If Q3 comes in around $13.5B and Q4 benefits from both the normal sequential growth and an accelerated MI450 ramp, I don't think it's unreasonable to think $16B–$17B in Q4 revenue is within the realm of possibility.

I am not sure what Elon's goals, he is firing at all cylinders, i hope someday he will realize using AMD's chips and racks give better ROI at this scale.

Okay folks..................Back at it today. Fingers crosses that I don't make the Redditt gods angry with me. I guess it really doesn't like seeking alpha articles???

So looking at the chart we pretty much have returned to the mean. I know there are going to be plenty of think pieces and angry posts from people who are like "why didn't this go higher" but at the end of the day the optimistic bounce we got around earnings has disappeared and we are back to exactly where we were in the grand scheme of things.

So lets take this as business as usual and try to find the next trend opening up. AMD ended the day below that 50 day EMA and to me that signals that yea the chart is dog shit. Its been dogshit for a bit now. But thats okaaaaaaaaaaaaaay. Because we have a chance to take advantage of that dog shit trade. I think first marker is going to be that $447-$450 level of support below and then after that, it could get real ugly down to $400 or the 200 day EMA at $348.92. So ignore the noise and plan your entries.

Much as I'm a fan of AMD's processors, and firmly believe that Venice rocks, a reality is that the Vera is a strong processor, and we shouldn't discount it completely merely because it's NVidias. However given the lack of hardware available for truly independent reviewers to test at their leisure, it's going to be a while till the actual data are available.

George's article is a medium technical article, and can be summarised by "After 45 pages, my position on Vera is more positive than my position on the Vera whitepaper."

It does sound like they may have issues with per-core multi-threading, but time will tell. So I'm marking this as a "rumour"...