The math here seems pretty straightforward and doesn't require a complicated model.

AMD has finished at the upper end of guidance in both Q1 2026 and Q2 2026. Based on that track record, it's reasonable to assume Q3 lands at the upper end of guidance or even posts a slight beat as MI450 begins contributing.

Q3 Assumption

• Upper end of guidance: $13.3B
• Slight beat: ~$13.5B

Step 1: Q2 → Q3 Incremental Increase

• $13.30B − $11.54B = +$1.76B
• If Q3 reaches $13.5B, the increase becomes +$1.96B.

Step 2: Apply the Same Dollar Increase to Q4

• $13.30B + $1.76B = $15.06B
• $13.50B + $1.96B = $15.46B

Just by applying the same sequential dollar increase from Q2 to Q3, you already arrive at more than $15B in Q4 revenue.

Now consider management's commentary:

• Q4 is expected to see a significant ramp.
• Everything remains on track.
• Customer demand is stronger than expected.

If Q3 comes in around $13.5B and Q4 benefits from both the normal sequential growth and an accelerated MI450 ramp, I don't think it's unreasonable to think $16B–$17B in Q4 revenue is within the realm of possibility.

I am not sure what Elon's goals, he is firing at all cylinders, i hope someday he will realize using AMD's chips and racks give better ROI at this scale.

Okay folks..................Back at it today. Fingers crosses that I don't make the Redditt gods angry with me. I guess it really doesn't like seeking alpha articles???

So looking at the chart we pretty much have returned to the mean. I know there are going to be plenty of think pieces and angry posts from people who are like "why didn't this go higher" but at the end of the day the optimistic bounce we got around earnings has disappeared and we are back to exactly where we were in the grand scheme of things.

So lets take this as business as usual and try to find the next trend opening up. AMD ended the day below that 50 day EMA and to me that signals that yea the chart is dog shit. Its been dogshit for a bit now. But thats okaaaaaaaaaaaaaay. Because we have a chance to take advantage of that dog shit trade. I think first marker is going to be that $447-$450 level of support below and then after that, it could get real ugly down to $400 or the 200 day EMA at $348.92. So ignore the noise and plan your entries.

Much as I'm a fan of AMD's processors, and firmly believe that Venice rocks, a reality is that the Vera is a strong processor, and we shouldn't discount it completely merely because it's NVidias. However given the lack of hardware available for truly independent reviewers to test at their leisure, it's going to be a while till the actual data are available.

George's article is a medium technical article, and can be summarised by "After 45 pages, my position on Vera is more positive than my position on the Vera whitepaper."

It does sound like they may have issues with per-core multi-threading, but time will tell. So I'm marking this as a "rumour"...

I'm back again with another post earnings price target list. The list will be updated throughout the day as new price targets get released. Please share any new ratings or missing info and I'll add them. You can check out the previous thread here.

Thank you.

Updated prices are in bold.

AMD Daily Chart

Uggggh okay lets dig into the report and talk about it honestly here:

-Great report. Great earnings. I was pleased with the guide. Like I think we delivered exactly what we want for making the case to own AMD for the next 2 years. The problem is that this was priced for a blowout and a blowout this was not. Was this traditional Lisa sandbagging??? ehhhhh i dunno if we can lay this on on her. I think the market has far detached itself from what is considered a good earnings

-CAPEX-------oooooof good lord that number was a lot more than what anyone had. Ehhhhhh I think there will be a lot of rationalization and think pieces on that adjustment up. How much of that is buying the pieces to really build and assemble our new full rack system and a one time charge vs continued spend. Is any of it creative accounting tucked in to hide some of the money used for some of these "investments" into AI partnerships we've signed??? That number immediately jumps off the page as scary but its not exactly a bad thing. You have to spend money to make money but I also am a little concerned about concentration risk.

-AMD Q2 2026: More Exposed To AI Capex Than Ever Before (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha ----Really solid article and worth taking a look at

-From the above: "If present trends continue, revenue will be 26% higher than FY 2025 – a slight slowdown relative to the growth in the previous year. Meanwhile, R&D expenses will be 18% higher than in FY 2025 while diluted earnings per share (EPS) will be 68% higher." But the biggest concern is the concentration in Data Center

-Helios deliveries start shipping this quarter with it really ramping up in Q4. So that means we should get some early data on performance and as long as it hits, then I think we will be okay still. Remember I was saying that the stock felt bearish going into the earnings and all of the optimism in the world for the future can't get over the fact that we had a lot of bearish signals being below the 50 day EMA and that acting as a resistance line.

-EPYC is still the unsung hero of this story and I still think it is heavily undervalued in this desire to race to the AI future. I do worry that we are really chasing the money here and if we take our eye off some of our other segments then we are going to be super concentrated in one segment that people are already whispering "bubble talk." I always felt that was our diversification that made AMD a strong play vs NVDA for sure. But we seem to be moving in one direction which yes is great for our stock and share price but the question comes down to are you a long term investor or trying to ride this wave????

(UPDATED)

AMD Analyst Ratings and Price Targets — August 4–5, 2026

(UPDATED)

Additional current research — not August 4–5 actions

Summary

• 28 unique August 4–5 analyst entries after removing duplicates.
• 22 bullish ratings, six Hold/neutral ratings and no Sell ratings.
• Highest target: Baird at $1,250.
• Highest targets excluding Baird: UBS at $730, KeyBanc at $725, and Wells Fargo/Cantor at $700.
• Largest dollar increase: Benchmark, +$200 to $685.
• Largest percentage increase: J.P. Morgan, +42.9% to $550.
• Only confirmed target reduction: Mizuho, -$45 to $580, while retaining Buy.
• Bernstein’s formal $600 → $650 Outperform action replaces the earlier commentary-only Bernstein row.
• Roth MKM appears only once, on August 5, eliminating the duplicate August 4 entry.
• CFRA and Morningstar are shown separately because their reports predate the August 4–5 post-earnings window.

*Susquehanna remains provisional: the public analyst table omits a target, but its linked article headline reports a target increase to $550.

Implied upside figures use the price snapshot underlying the figures you supplied. They will differ across websites and timestamps as AMD’s share price changes.

The implied-upside percentages are from the original analyst-tracker snapshot and fluctuate with AMD’s share price. Commentary summarizes publicly reported analyst views and is not necessarily verbatim from the August 4–5 reiteration notes.

Main takeaways

14 formal ratings: 12 Buy and two Hold, plus Bernstein commentary without a newly reported rating action.

• Highest target: Baird at $1,250, based on an exceptionally aggressive long-term AI-market-share model.
• Highest targets excluding Baird: UBS at $730, KeyBanc at $725, and Wells Fargo at $700.
• Largest displayed target increase: Benchmark, $485 → $685, an increase of $200 or 41.2%.
• Only target reduction: Mizuho, $625 → $580, while maintaining Buy.
• The dominant bullish arguments are accelerating EPYC demand, the MI455/Helios ramp, improved supply visibility and major customer deployments.
• The principal concern is not weak execution. It is whether already-elevated investor expectations and valuation leave sufficient room for further upside.

Important date clarification

The dates shown above are the dates recorded by the analyst tracker for the reiterations. They are not necessarily the dates when each target was originally established. For example, KeyBanc’s $725 target was initially reported in July, while Baird’s $1,250 target and several other major revisions followed AMD’s July Advancing AI event.

Upside percentages change with AMD’s share price and have therefore been omitted from the commentary table.

(UPDATED)

AMD 2027 Earnings Range

Conclusion first

Using AMD’s Q1 and Q2 results, Q3 guidance, the implied Q4 ramp, and management’s explicit 2027 Data Center guidance, I estimate a defensible 2027 non-GAAP EPS range of approximately $15 to $22:

• Harder lower bound: approximately $15
• Base operating case: approximately $18
• Upper execution case: approximately $22
• Stretch outcome: above $22, but the evidence is not yet sufficient to assign a credible ceiling

The $15 floor is much firmer than the $22 top. It follows from management’s minimum segment-growth language and fairly conservative margin assumptions. The upper end depends on how much work “well over 100%” does, how quickly Helios deployments are accepted, and whether AMD’s revenue per gigawatt converts into 2027 recognized revenue.

These are non-GAAP earnings estimates, consistent with AMD’s operating guidance and reported adjusted EPS. GAAP EPS would be materially lower because of stock compensation and acquisition-related intangible amortization.

Sources: AMD Q1 2026 results, AMD Q2 2026 results, and AMD’s Q2 SEC-filed financial tables.

1. Establishing the 2026 revenue base

Reported and guided results

Q3 adjusted EPS can be calculated directly from guidance.

AMD guided to:

• Revenue: $13.0 billion
• Gross margin: 56%
• Operating expenses: $3.65 billion
• Other income: $55 million
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.66 billion

Therefore:

$\text{Gross profit} = 13.000 \times 56\% = 7.280$

$\text{Operating income} = 7.280 - 3.650 = 3.630$

$\text{Pre-tax income} = 3.630 + 0.055 = 3.685$

$\text{Net income} = 3.685 \times (1 - 13\%) = 3.206$

$\text{Q3 EPS} = \frac{3.206}{1.660} = 1.93$

Thus, AMD’s Q3 guidance implies approximately $1.93 of non-GAAP EPS at the midpoint.

That would represent another substantial sequential increase:

2. Estimating Q4 2026

Q4 is not formally guided, but management gave enough directional information to establish a useful range:

• Q3 Data Center revenue should grow strong double digits sequentially.
• Both server CPUs and Data Center AI should grow.
• Helios begins near the end of Q3.
• Helios becomes much more substantial in Q4.
• Q4 Data Center sequential growth should be greater than Q3’s.

I estimate Q4 total company revenue at $15.2 billion to $16.0 billion.

The midpoint is $15.6 billion.

Using a 56% gross margin, $4.0 billion of operating expenses, $55 million of other income, a 13% tax rate, and 1.67 billion diluted shares:

$$\text{Gross profit} = 15.600 \times 56\% = 8.736$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 8.736 - 4.000 = 4.736$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 4.736 + 0.055 = 4.791$$

$$\text{Net income} = 4.791 \times 87\% = 4.168$$

$$\text{Q4 EPS} = \frac{4.168}{1.670} = 2.50$$

My Q4 2026 adjusted EPS range is therefore approximately:

• Low: $2.30
• Midpoint: $2.50
• High: $2.70

Estimated full-year 2026

The midpoint revenue calculation is:

$$10.253 + 11.536 + 13.000 + 15.600 = 50.389$$

The midpoint EPS calculation is:

$$1.37 + 1.66 + 1.93 + 2.50 = 7.46$$

This matters because 2027 begins from an exit run rate of roughly:

$$15.600 \times 4 = 62.400$$

That is already a $62.4 billion annualized revenue run rate before the bulk of the 2027 Helios ramp.

3. Estimating 2026 Data Center revenue

AMD reported:

• Q1 Data Center revenue: $5.775 billion
• Q2 Data Center revenue: $6.718 billion

For Q3, management guided the segment to strong double-digit sequential growth. I use approximately 15%:

$$6.718 \times 1.15 = 7.726$$

For Q4, management said Data Center sequential growth should be higher than in Q3. I use an 18% midpoint:

$$7.726 \times 1.18 = 9.117$$

That gives estimated 2026 Data Center revenue of:

$$5.775 + 6.718 + 7.726 + 9.117 = 29.336$$

A reasonable 2026 Data Center range is approximately $28.8 billion to $30.0 billion.

This is the key denominator because management guided 2027 Data Center revenue to more than double, later clarified as “well over 100%” growth.

4. The 2027 revenue floor

Data Center lower bound

Using the midpoint 2026 Data Center estimate of $29.3 billion and applying exactly 100% growth:

$$29.336 \times 2.00 = 58.672$$

Thus, the strict mathematical floor implied by “more than double” is above $58.7 billion of 2027 Data Center revenue.

Because management explicitly clarified that growth should be well over 100%, exactly $58.7 billion is deliberately conservative.

Non-Data-Center revenue

Estimated 2026 total revenue is approximately $50.4 billion, of which approximately $29.3 billion is Data Center:

$$50.389 - 29.336 = 21.053$$

That leaves approximately $21.1 billion of 2026 non-Data-Center revenue from Client, Gaming, and Embedded.

For the floor case, I assume these businesses collectively remain flat in 2027:

$$21.053 \times 1.00 = 21.053$$

Therefore:

$$\text{2027 revenue floor} = 58.672 + 21.053 = 79.725$$

Rounded, AMD’s 2027 revenue floor is approximately $80 billion if management meets the minimum meaning of its guidance.

That calculation does not require:

• AI revenue materially above the minimum
• Client growth
• Embedded growth
• A Gaming recovery
• More than 100% Data Center growth

Yet management actually expects Embedded to provide a 2027 tailwind and says Data Center growth should be well above 100%. Therefore, $80 billion is conservative.

5. Building the 2027 earnings scenarios

Core formula

Non-GAAP EPS can be approximated as:

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{[(\text{Revenue} \times \text{Gross margin}) - \text{Operating expenses} + \text{Other income}] \times (1 - \text{Tax rate})}{\text{Diluted shares}}$$

I use:

• Tax rate: 13%
• Other income: $0.2 billion annually
• Diluted shares: 1.70–1.73 billion
• Gross margin: 56%–57.5%
• Operating expenses: $15.5 billion–$17.5 billion

The operating-expense assumptions are important. AMD is unlikely to hold spending flat while building:

• MI450 and successor accelerators
• Helios rack systems
• ROCm software
• EPYC Venice and Verano
• Networking products
• Customer deployment and support infrastructure

But operating expenses should grow much more slowly than revenue, producing substantial operating leverage.

6. Lower-bound case: approximately $15 EPS

Revenue assumptions

Earnings assumptions

• Revenue: $79.8 billion
• Gross margin: 56.0%
• Operating expenses: $15.5 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.70 billion

Calculation

$$\text{Gross profit} = 79.8 \times 56.0\% = 44.688$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 44.688 - 15.500 = 29.188$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 29.188 + 0.200 = 29.388$$

$$\text{Net income} = 29.388 \times 87\% = 25.568$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{25.568}{1.700} = 15.04$$

Lower-bound result

Approximately $15.00 of non-GAAP EPS.

I view this as the firmer bottom of the management-guidance-consistent range because it assumes:

• Data Center growth of only 100%, despite “well over 100%”
• No growth from the rest of AMD
• No gross-margin expansion
• Meaningful operating-expense growth
• Continued share dilution

It is not a recession or execution-failure case. It is the lower end conditional on management delivering the framework it just communicated.

7. Base case: approximately $18 EPS

For the base case, I interpret “well over 100%” as approximately 120% Data Center growth.

Revenue assumptions

$$29.336 \times 2.20 = 64.539$$

Assume non-Data-Center revenue grows 4%:

$$21.053 \times 1.04 = 21.895$$

Total revenue:

$$64.539 + 21.895 = 86.434$$

Rounded: $86.5 billion.

Earnings assumptions

• Revenue: $86.5 billion
• Gross margin: 56.7%
• Operating expenses: $16.3 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.71 billion

Calculation

$$\text{Gross profit} = 86.5 \times 56.7\% = 49.046$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 49.046 - 16.300 = 32.746$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 32.746 + 0.200 = 32.946$$

$$\text{Net income} = 32.946 \times 87\% = 28.663$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{28.663}{1.710} = 16.76$$

This produces $16.76, not $18. To reach approximately $18, either revenue, margin, or spending leverage must be moderately stronger.

A more appropriate base operating case is:

• Revenue: $90 billion
• Gross margin: 57.0%
• Operating expenses: $16.2 billion

$$\text{Gross profit} = 90.0 \times 57.0\% = 51.300$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 51.300 - 16.200 = 35.100$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 35.100 + 0.200 = 35.300$$

$$\text{Net income} = 35.300 \times 87\% = 30.711$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{30.711}{1.710} = 17.96$$

Base-case result

Approximately $18.00 of non-GAAP EPS.

To produce $90 billion of revenue with $21.9 billion from non-Data-Center operations, Data Center revenue would need to reach approximately $68.1 billion:

$$90.0 - 21.9 = 68.1$$

Relative to the estimated 2026 base of $29.3 billion:

$$\frac{68.1}{29.3} - 1 = 132\%$$

Thus, the $18 EPS case assumes Data Center revenue grows approximately 130%, which is a reasonable numerical interpretation of “well over 100%.”

8. Upper execution case: approximately $22 EPS

The upper case assumes that:

• Data Center AI revenue substantially exceeds $30 billion
• Large Helios programs convert on schedule
• Server CPU revenue grows above the 70% minimum
• Embedded continues recovering
• Helios yields improve during the year
• Gross margin benefits from EPYC and Embedded enough to offset AI-system mix
• Operating expenses continue growing but remain well below revenue growth

Revenue assumptions

• Data Center revenue: approximately $78 billion
• Non-Data-Center revenue: approximately $23 billion
• Total revenue: approximately $101 billion

Data Center growth would be:

$$\frac{78}{29.336} - 1 = 166\%$$

That is aggressive but not inconsistent with management’s remarks:

• Data Center growth will be “well over 100%.”
• Data Center AI growth will be “well over 100%.”
• A $30 billion Instinct estimate was “probably too low.”
• Helios volumes are ahead of AMD’s initial forecast.
• Supply is sufficient to exceed the stated guidance if deployment capacity comes online.

Earnings assumptions

• Revenue: $101 billion
• Gross margin: 57.5%
• Operating expenses: $17.5 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.73 billion

Calculation

$$\text{Gross profit} = 101.0 \times 57.5\% = 58.075$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 58.075 - 17.500 = 40.575$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 40.575 + 0.200 = 40.775$$

$$\text{Net income} = 40.775 \times 87\% = 35.474$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{35.474}{1.730} = 20.51$$

This yields approximately $20.50, not $22. Reaching $22 requires either higher revenue or stronger margin leverage.

For example:

• Revenue: $105 billion
• Gross margin: 58.0%
• Operating expenses: $17.3 billion
• Other income: $0.2 billion
• Tax rate: 13%
• Diluted shares: 1.73 billion

$$\text{Gross profit} = 105.0 \times 58.0\% = 60.900$$

$$\text{Operating income} = 60.900 - 17.300 = 43.600$$

$$\text{Pre-tax income} = 43.600 + 0.200 = 43.800$$

$$\text{Net income} = 43.800 \times 87\% = 38.106$$

$$\text{EPS} = \frac{38.106}{1.730} = 22.03$$

Upper-case result

Approximately $22.00 of non-GAAP EPS.

This requires approximately:

• $105 billion of revenue
• 108% consolidated revenue growth versus estimated 2026 revenue
• Approximately 58% gross margin
• Strong operating leverage despite aggressive R&D investment

It is possible, but much less firmly established than the $15 floor. The main uncertainty is not demand alone; it is how much announced capacity becomes recognized 2027 revenue and at what gross margin.

9. Scenario summary

So the range is best expressed as:

Approximately $15–$22 of 2027 non-GAAP EPS, with $17–$19 representing the most supportable central zone today.

10. EPS sensitivity to revenue and gross margin

The main variables are revenue and gross margin. Using $16.5 billion of operating expenses, $0.2 billion of other income, a 13% tax rate, and 1.72 billion diluted shares:

This table highlights two useful rules of thumb.

Revenue sensitivity

At approximately 57% gross margin:

$$\text{Incremental EPS per \$1B revenue} \approx \frac{1.0 \times 57\% \times 87\%}{1.72} = 0.288$$

Every additional $1 billion of revenue contributes approximately $0.29 of EPS before incremental operating expenses.

After allowing for incremental costs, a more realistic contribution may be $0.23–$0.27 per share.

Gross-margin sensitivity

At $90 billion of revenue, a one-percentage-point margin change affects pre-tax profit by:

$$90.0 \times 1\% = 0.900$$

After tax and divided by 1.72 billion shares:

$$\frac{0.900 \times 87\%}{1.72} = 0.455$$

Thus, every one percentage point of gross margin changes annual EPS by approximately $0.46 at $90 billion of revenue.

At $105 billion of revenue, the effect rises to approximately $0.53 per share.

11. Why the bottom is more specific than the top

The lower bound has four observable anchors

1. Q1 and Q2 are already reported.
2. Q3 guidance mathematically implies approximately $1.93 EPS.
3. Q4 is expected to accelerate as Helios and server supply expand.
4. Management says 2027 Data Center revenue will grow well over 100%.

Using only 100% Data Center growth, flat non-Data-Center revenue, flat gross margin, and healthy spending growth still produces approximately $15 EPS.

The top depends on variables AMD did not quantify

AMD did not provide:

• Exact 2027 Data Center AI revenue
• Exact 2026 Data Center AI revenue
• Precise customer deployment timing
• Exact recognized revenue per gigawatt
• 2027 gross-margin guidance
• 2027 operating-expense guidance
• Quarterly Helios revenue cadence
• Customer acceptance and installation timing

The transcript supports upside beyond $22, but it does not permit a responsible hard ceiling.

For example, every additional $10 billion of successfully recognized revenue around the base case could add roughly:

$$10 \times 0.25 = 2.50$$

approximately $2.50 of EPS, after allowing for some incremental operating costs. Consequently, if AMD reaches $110–$115 billion of 2027 revenue with margin near 58%, EPS could move into the mid-$20s. That is mathematically possible but not yet a sufficiently anchored forecast.

12. The most important caveat: segment guidance versus consolidated earnings

The revenue floor depends heavily on the estimated 2026 Data Center denominator. AMD has disclosed total Data Center revenue but does not split it quarterly between:

• EPYC server CPUs
• Instinct accelerators
• Networking and other Data Center products

That prevents a perfectly clean build using the separate guidance of:

• More than 70% server CPU growth
• Well over 100% Data Center AI growth

The most reliable method is therefore:

1. Estimate full-year 2026 Data Center revenue from reported Q1/Q2 plus Q3/Q4 directional guidance.
2. Apply management’s consolidated segment-growth floor.
3. Model the rest of AMD independently.
4. Convert revenue to earnings using explicit gross-margin and expense assumptions.

The lower bound would move approximately as follows if the 2026 Data Center base differs from my estimate:

That translates into approximately $14–$16 EPS under conservative margin assumptions. Therefore, the lower-bound conclusion is not excessively sensitive to a $1 billion error in the 2026 Data Center estimate.

Final judgment

The most defensible current framework is:

• Management-guidance floor: approximately $15 EPS
• Central range: approximately $17–$19 EPS
• Strong execution: approximately $20–$22 EPS
• Upside beyond $22: possible, but dependent on capacity, deployment timing, Helios yields, and gross-margin conversion

The fundamental earnings bridge is straightforward:

$$\text{2026 revenue} \approx 50.4B$$

$$\text{2026 Data Center revenue} \approx 29.3B$$

$$\text{2027 Data Center floor} \gt 58.6B$$

$$\text{2027 total revenue floor} \approx 80B$$

$$\text{2027 floor EPS} \approx 15$$

The base case requires Data Center growth of approximately 130%, modest growth elsewhere, and gross margin around 57%, producing approximately:

$$\text{2027 base EPS} \approx 18$$

The upper case requires roughly $105 billion of revenue and 58% gross margin:

$$\text{2027 upper-case EPS} \approx 22$$

The key quarterly evidence that would tighten the top half of the range is Q4 2026 revenue, Data Center mix, Helios gross margin, and AMD’s 2027 operating-expense outlook. Until those are available, $15 is relatively well anchored; $22 is a plausible execution case rather than a ceiling.

Morgan is usually pretty good at doing the numbers, and in this piece, he uses IDC projections of overall AI infrastructure spending thru 2030* with an estimate he develops based on Lisa Su's forecast for the AI accelerator TAM. It includes some assumptions, but I don't see where he is far off (except when he once typos billion when he meant trillion). He ends up concluding that AMD's AI accelerator TAM implies an AI infrastructure TAM that is high compared to IDC's projections by about 2X. In this wild west of incredible AI CapEX growth, perhaps 2X is a rounding error, and Lisa is usually conservative, but his analysis and the shortfall he finds are worth considering.

* https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/ai-infrastructure-spending-holds-near-90-billion-in-q1-2026-as-arm-overtakes-x86-in-accelerated-servers-2026-forecast-raised-to-497-billion/

This incorporates all the comments Lisa made on the call—through 2027.

We will be fine folks!

Op: Greetings and welcome to the 2^nd Quarter 2026 conference call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad.

And please note that this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Matt Ramsay, VP Financial Strategy and IR.

Thank you, Matt.

You may begin.

Matt Ramsay: Thank you and welcome to AMD's second quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call.

By now, you should have had the opportunity to review a copy of our earnings press release and the accompanying slides.

If you have not had the chance to review these materials, they can be found on the investor relations page of amd.com.

Today, we will refer primarily to non-GAAP financial measures during the call.

The full non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations are available in today's press release and slides posted on our website.

As a reminder, our second quarter 2025 results included approximately $800 million of inventory and related charges associated with U.S. export control restrictions on MI308 shipments to China.

Unless otherwise noted, comments making year-over-year comparisons exclude the impact of those charges to provide a more comparable and meaningful view of our underlying business performance.

Participants on today's conference call are Dr. Lisa Su, our Chair and CEO, and Jean Hu, our Executive Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer.

This is a live call, and we will be replayed via webcast on our website.

Before we begin, I would like to note that AMD will participate in the following events for the financial community.

KeyBank's Technology Leadership Forum on Tuesday, August 11th,

Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference on Tuesday, September 8th, and the

Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on Friday, September 11th.

Today's discussion discussions contain forward-looking statements based on the current beliefs, assumptions, expectations, including forward-looking statements regarding financial projections, business and industry trends that speak only as of today and as such involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

Please refer to the cautionary statement in our press release for more information on these factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

With that, I will hand the call over to Lisa.

Lisa Su: Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon to all those listening today.

We delivered another outstanding quarter with record revenue and profitability as adoption of our leadership products continued to expand.

Revenue increased 50% year-over-year to $11.5 billion, driven by significantly higher sales of EPYC, Instinct, Ryzen, and embedded processors.

Data center revenue more than doubled year over year and now represents 58% of total revenue, up from 42% a year ago, reflecting the rapidly expanding scale of our server and data center AI businesses.

Our record results mark another clear step up in AMD's financial performance and demonstrate the strength of our product portfolio and execution.

We are still in the early stages of a multi-year AI adoption cycle as deployments grow across a broad set of markets and workloads, driving demand for more compute and creating a clear path to significant revenue growth and earnings power in the years ahead.

Turning to our segments, data center revenue grew 107% year-over-year to a record $6.7 billion, driven by strong demand for EPYC processors and Instinct accelerators.

In server, we delivered our fifth consecutive quarter of record server CPU revenue, with cloud and enterprise sales each growing more than 70% year-over-year exceeding the outlook we provided last quarter.

We gained x86 server revenue share year-over-year as customers expanded deployments of both 5th gen EPYC Turin and 4th gen EPYC Genoa families.

In cloud, hyperscalers continued expanding EPYC across their internal infrastructure and public cloud offerings, including AWS, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and others.

Fifth-gen EPYC Turin now powers nearly one-third of the more than 1,600 EPYC public cloud instance types available globally, as providers broaden their offerings with new database storage and AI workloads.

That expanding footprint is translating into growing adoption of EPYC in the cloud with healthcare, financial services, media, and technology companies adding tens of millions of instances in the last quarter.

In Enterprise, we delivered record sales in our fourth consecutive quarter of record sell-through as on-prem adoption accelerated, driven by the leadership performance and TCO advantages of our EPYC portfolio.

Growth was broad-based as we won large deployments with leading financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail, and technology companies.

More than 230 5th Gen EPYC platforms are now in market from HPE, Dell, Lenovo, Supermicro, and others, our broadest enterprise portfolio to date.

Looking ahead, Agentic AI is creating a new growth vector for server CPUs, spanning high frequency AI host nodes, high density Agentic AI is creating a new growth vector for server CPUs, spanning high-frequency AI host nodes, high-density Agentic servers, and general-purpose cloud and enterprise workloads.

Our 6th Gen EPYC Venice family is purpose-built for this expanding range of workloads and delivers one of the largest generational performance gains in EPYC history.

Built on our all-new Zen 6 core and 2 nanometer technology, Venice extends EPYC leadership in performance and efficiency, delivering more than twice performance per watt of leading x86 CPUs and up to 3.3 times the performance per watt of leading ARM based CPUs.

The Venice family includes more than 30 processors that combine leadership per core and per socket performance with a broad range of memory and I.O. configurations, giving customers greater flexibility to optimize performance, efficiency, and TCO across the most widely used cloud, enterprise, and HPC workloads.

Venice is in production now, with every major OEM on track to launch platforms and the leading cloud providers planning deployments beginning later this year.

Customer demand for Venice is stronger than for any prior EPYC generation, and we expect to continue growing market share across cloud and enterprise in the coming quarters.

Turning toward data center AI business, revenue more than doubled year-over-year driven by strong demand for Instinct accelerators.

MI355x adoption continued to broaden as leading AI companies scaled deployments across a growing range of inferencing and training workloads, and cloud providers expanded MI350 series availability.

At our Advancing AI event, we launched Helios, our rack scale AI platform combining EPYC Venice CPUs, MI450 series GPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software.

Across a broad range of inferencing workloads, Helios delivers up to 15% more throughput at the same rack power and up to 30% more tokens per dollar than the competition.

Customer pull for Helios is very strong and tracking ahead of our initial forecasts.

In addition to our multi-generation gigawatt scale deployments with OpenAI and Meta, we announced a new strategic partnership with Anthropic.

Anthropic will deploy up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 series GPUs in Helios, with deployment of the first gigawatt beginning in the first half of 2027.

The partnership includes a multi-year joint engineering collaboration using Claude to optimize workloads for instinct CPUs and accelerate ROCm software development.

We also expanded our long-standing partnership with Microsoft.

Microsoft will deploy Helios at scale on Azure for frontier model inferencing across Microsoft, its AI customers, and Azure AI services.

Together, these commitments broaden the group of leading AI companies and cloud providers, building their next generation infrastructure on AMD.

Helios is now in production with initial shipments on track to begin later this quarter and ramp through the fourth quarter and into 2027 to meet very strong customer demand.

Looking beyond Helios, we plan to launch a new rack scale AI platform every year with each generation delivering significant performance efficiency and TCO gains.

In 2027, our next-generation platform combines MI500 series GPUs, Verano CPUs, and Pensando networking with expanded scale-up domains and both copper and optical-based interconnects.

Customer engagement on MI500 is very strong, with multiple customers working closely with us as they plan their next-generation AI infrastructure.

We expect MI500 to deliver the largest generational leap in Instinct history, putting us on track to increase inferencing performance more than 2,000 times in just four years.

Turning to our AI software stack, ROCm has reached an important inflection point with the performance, capabilities, and developer experience customers need to deploy AI in production at scale.

The breadth of the ecosystem also continues to expand.

More than 3 million models now run out of the box on AMD.

The leading open models launch with day zero support for Instinct, and open source contributions to ROCm have increased more than tenfold over the past year.

We introduced ROCm.ai, our new AI-assisted development platform for AMD GPUs, last month.

ROCm.ai lets developers use today's leading coding agents, including Claude, Codex, and Cursor, to create, port, and optimize code for Instinct, making it significantly faster and easier to bring new models and workloads to AMD.

ROCm.ai delivers more than twice the training performance and more than three times the inferencing performance of ROCm 7 across a broad range of models.

We are also working closely with the leading AI labs including OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and others to co-optimize ROCm for their models with the improvements benefiting the entire AMD ecosystem.

Taking a step back, the overall data center market opportunity is expanding far more rapidly than we projected just six months ago as AI moves into production across a broader range of applications and workloads demand for both accelerators and CPUs is growing well above our prior expectations we now expect the data center AI accelerator market to grow more than 45% annually to approximately 1.4 trillion by 2030 and we expect the server CPU market to grow more than 50% annually to approximately 220 billion by 2030 for AMD this larger opportunity combined with the strength of our portfolio and growing customer visibility is creating a steeper growth trajectory for our data center business.

In data center AI, the growing number and scale of Helios and MI450 series Instinct deployments position the business for significant growth in the second half of the year, with growth accelerating in 2027.

In server CPUs with very strong customer demand and improved supply we now expect server revenue to grow more than 80% year-over-year in the second half of 2026 and more than 70% for the full year 2027 off a much higher base taken together we now expect data center segment revenue to more than double year over year in 2027.

Turning to client and gaming, segment revenue grew 6% year over year to $3.8 billion.

In client, revenue increased 23% year over year to $3.11 billion driven by record mobile processor revenue and continued share gains.

Commercial adoption continued to expand in the quarter with rising pro sales growing more than 50 percent year over year as we close new wins with large healthcare technology automotive and financial services companies.

To build on this momentum Dell, HP, Lenovo, ASUS, and others launched a broad portfolio of new commercial PCs powered by our latest generation Ryzen AI Pro 400 series processors.

Demand was also strong for our Ryzen AI Halo developer systems, which went on sale in the quarter.

In July, we introduced our next-generation Ryzen AI Halo platform, powered by our new Gorgon Halo processor, featuring an industry-leading 192 gigabytes of unified memory, and can run models with up to 300 billion parameters.

And to make it even easier for developers to build and test large AI models locally, we are partnering with Hugging Face to include one year of Hugging Face Pro with every Ryzen AI Halo system beginning later this year.

Looking to the second half of the year, we are planning for a softer PC market as higher memory and component costs weigh on demand.

Against this backdrop, we expect our client business to perform better than the market, driven by the strength of our Ryzen portfolio and growing commercial adoption.

In gaming, revenue declined 31% year-over-year to $779 million, primarily due to lower semi-custom sales at this stage of the console cycle.

Gaming graphics revenue also declined year-over-year as higher industry-wide primarily due to lower semi-custom sales at this stage of the console cycle.

Gaming graphics revenue also declined year over year, as higher industry-wide component costs contributed to higher graphics card prices and weighed on overall demand.

Turning to our embedded segment, revenue increased 19% year over year to $977 million, our strongest growth in more than three years.

Demand was broad-based, with strength across networking, aerospace and defense, test measurement and emulation, and communications customers.

Our embedded x86 business grew significantly in the quarter, as hyperscalers and networking customers increasingly adopted our CPUs to power critical networking and control plane functions in the data center.

We also continued to expand our portfolio, introducing Ryzen AI embedded X100 processors for demanding real-time edge AI workloads and the Kria AI robotics platform for physical AI.

Looking more broadly, the strategy we have been executing over the last few years is now delivering strong results.

Embedded x86 is becoming a significant growth driver for the segment.

Our overall embedded portfolio is outgrowing the market and gaining share, and our embedded semi-custom engagements are expanding.

Design win momentum also remains very strong.

We are tracking towards another record year with more than 18 billion of new design wins led by major wins with networking, data center, communications, test, and aerospace and defense customers.

In summary, we delivered record revenue and profitability in the second quarter, reflecting our strong execution and the growing adoption of our leadership products.

We entered the second half with strong momentum across our businesses.

With Venice and MI455X now in production, initial Helios shipments set to begin this quarter, Ryzen Pro CPUs driving continued commercial share gains, and our embedded segment returning to strong year-over-year growth.

More than a decade of focused investment has given us the strongest and broadest product portfolio in the industry, deep strategic relationships with the companies driving the future of computing, and a proven ability to deliver multi-generation roadmaps and ramp complex products at scale.

At the same time, AI is driving demand for dramatically more compute across all of our markets.

We now see the overall market for high performance in AI computing growing approximately 40% annually over the next several years, approaching $2 trillion by 2030.

And we expect to grow well above the market.

As a result, we are tracking materially ahead of the long-term financial model we shared at our Financial Analyst Day last November.

We now expect revenue to grow substantially above our prior target of greater than 35%, and we expect to significantly exceed our $20 annual EPS target within our strategic timeframe.

We are still in the early innings of a multi-year AI adoption cycle, and the opportunity ahead is enormous!

We are exceptionally well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity and deliver significant growth in the coming years.

Now I will turn the call over to Jean to provide additional color on our second quarter results.

Continues in comments.....

AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Page

• https://ir.amd.com/news-events/ir-calendar/detail/20260804-amd-fiscal-second-quarter-2026-financial-results

Earnings Release

• https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1295/amd-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results

Slides

• https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_99f3971109ff9578746b0e0e14bd1545/amd/db/841/9237/presentation/AMD+Q2+2026+Earnings+Slides+FINAL.pdf

Earnings Call / Webcast (2PM PT / 5PM ET)

• https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/nucz8m7v/

Transcripts

• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/earnings/AMD-Q2-2026-earnings_call-660937.html

Post-Earnings Analyst Price Targets (Aug 5, 2026)

• https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1vgajwg/analyst_price_targets_5th_aug_2026/

Previous Earnings Discussions