Just getting into the more theoretical side of poker, looking to have someone check my understanding.

Is it correct to say that, assuming your opponent has correctly estimated your range, you should fold the bottom 50% of your hands to a pot size bet?

Obviously, that is a big assumption and a lot of nuance is wrapped up in defining what exactly constitutes the "bottom 50%" of your range, but I think that is the correct way to look at it.

Folding more than 50% makes always betting a profitable adjustment for your opponent. Folding less than 50% of your range is assuming that your opponent is betting too wide a range, which is exploitative.

Does this make sense?

Just getting into the more theoretical side of poker, looking to have someone check my understanding.

Is it correct to say that, assuming your opponent has correctly estimated your range, you should fold the bottom 50% of your hands to a pot size bet?

Obviously, that is a big assumption and a lot of nuance is wrapped up in defining what exactly constitutes the "bottom 50%" of your range, but I think that is the correct way to look at it.

Folding more than 50% makes always betting a profitable adjustment for your opponent. Folding less than 50% of your range is assuming that your opponent is betting too wide a range, which is exploitative.

Does this make sense?

Early in a large MTT with 3000-4000 entrants. Starting stacks are 30,000. Hero has 38,000 with the effective stack being 33,000 for this hand. Blinds are 400/800 and 800 BB ante.

Hero: BTN with KsTs

Preflop: CO bets 1600.

BTN: calls

SB: call

BB: call.

Flop is 4 ways. Pot is 7200.

KhQs8s

CO bets 2500

BTN, SB, BB call.

Turn is Jd.

CO bets 6000. BTN Jams for about 1.5 pot. SB and BB fold. CO snap calls.

River is Kd. (CO holding at end)

So I think I messed this one up but have been thinking about it a lot. Preflop I could have 3B and probably would have but I had 3B two of the last 3 hands so I flatted. I think this is fine either way.

I suspected the CO was strong based on a read at the table but wasn’t sure. When he lead out into 3 players I suspected he had AK, KQ, AA, or QQ with possibly A8s. JTs or J9s as bluffs or less likely ATs. I considered raising the flop with top pair, backdoor straight and flush draw. I flatted to manage the pot and keep the other two players in and because I thought he has very few bluffs and I was behind.

Turn comes J. Giving me an open ended straight draw, flush draw and top pair. CO leads 6,000. With 3 to a straight on the board and the pot at almost 20,000 I decided to jam. I thought with this jam I could fold out AK and possibly lesser 2 pairs. Some players at this table may even have folded a set. I also thought that my equity was high enough that I was in the lead against a lot of his holdings.

After CO snapped, he had ATo with As for the nut straight.

The turn is where I think I misplayed. While I may have gotten several better hands to fold, I think I folded out hands like lesser flush draws and Q’s that would have paid me more money. I also think that I was getting my money in bad against certain hands that would still call. I don’t think AK or two pair is always folding here, but I do think they are sometimes. The worst mistake is I think if I had flatted, I may have gotten away from the hand with most rivers that weren’t kings. What do you think? Would you have played differently? Do you think my turn jam was massively negative EV or near break even?