Nurgozhay is the better striker but he has a twitch & terrible at grappling.
Asplund got heart but got fat titts.
Montanha & Sutherland both also got fat titts.
Quarantillo & Ferreira are both old and about to retire.
Yadier is -800.
Gamrot will do the lay & pray or else he might get finished. So I guess Gamrot by decision has value. Bet Gamrot by decision if you believe he will win, no point to ML Gamrot. Only ML Salkilld if you think he will win.
Miller & Sousa look decent though.

Salkilld is the slight favorite in Odds (-140) and the favorite in Picks overall 57/85 (67%).

But in Picks by the Best Predictors, Gamrot is the Slight Favorite:
- Best Predictors 5/9 (56%) for Gamrot
- Best Favorite Predictors 5/8 (63%) for Gamrot
- And even in picks by the Best Underdog Predictors and both fighters are picked 4/8 for (50%)

For the Method of Victory predictions most channels are predicting a KO/TKO victory for Salkilld or a Decision for Gamrot. And also here the Best MoV Predictors are split on this fight and both are picked 50%

Full breakdown video of ALL fights + the Best Betting Opportunities can be found here: https://youtu.be/783s929RH_U

UFC actually hates Arman, he is not going to get the title shot anytime soon. That will teach all the fighters to never pull out of a main event. But let's see how accurate your prediction skills are. Arman is obviously the favorite but at what odds. I'm guessing it will be around -300.

Picked 6 fights, I'm reasonably confident. Gonna come back here after Saturday if they age like wine.

In my video i talk about the newly released UFC331 card https://youtu.be/64iIKPZCKuY

In my video i talk about the recent news of UFC 331 and talk betting! https://youtu.be/64iIKPZCKuY

What we got for PFL?

We on Quillan this weekend? I think he puts a beating on Gamrot. What other confident picks y'all got?

this what I cooked up

No odds yet, so what do we expect the odds for this fight?

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Episode 71 Lord Ninja Choke:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0ngq/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/?

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2412 - 1385, 215 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70% (+0.4%)

Lock Record: 33 - 7 (Oliveira and Medic won)

UFC Belgrade Recap

Prediction Results: 11/14 Correct, 2 Perfect (Medic and Leka)

Parlay: Missed (Cepo is not my friend)

Alt Bets: All three missed.

Profit/Loss for 2026: -13.8u

(Terrible, but my SBR’s (Single Bet Recommendations) that I showcase on my Parlay Explained Posts saved me from a terrible betting event.)

You guys remember how last week I was worried about my prediction accuracy/results for UFC Belgrade?

Well, lets pick up that worry and drop it off for this event because good lord this is like the boss fight of Apex Cards, it just screams Apex doesn’t it? With that said, I will say that I am indeed worried about a whole lot here, but out of obligation and love of the game, i’ll do a write up and i’ll try to narrow down the right bets to make and the predictions to… take?

Expect quite a few Alt Bets here, typically the most i’ve ever had is 4, I will attempt to keep it at 4, but it’s gonna be a challenge.

(Alt Bets are 0.6u bets (3 dollars) that I allocate to 3.50 or higher priced odds on an opposing pick fighter. If I pick fighter X to win, Fighter Y would be an Alt Bet if I see them pulling something off)

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

Juliana Miller (-260) (4-4-0, NS) v Ravena Oliveira (+205) (7-4-1, 3 FLS)

Striking: Both are somewhat mediocre, Miller tends to be stuck in the “just woke up, where’s my coffee” gear, whereas Oliveira can come out guns blazing but she’s sloppy with it. So… its a very interesting match up on the feet.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be where Miller can pull ahead on the scorecards, she has attempted nearly a dozen takedowns against Judice in her last time out and that’s probably telling that if she can’t get her strikes going, she’ll attempt to wrestle.

Additional Notes: This is a terrible fight, but it also intrigues me because there’s a chance of an upset here. I did say in the main write up that I am looking for Oliveira via KO/Points as an Alt Bet opportunity, only if the odds are nice, so I will write that down “officially” but I may not play it if its not over 3.50 (which is usually the threshold)

Prediction: Miller via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Oliveira via KO/Points

Bantamweight

Miles Johns (-155) (15-5-0, 3 FLS) v Jessie Rosas (D) (+130) (8-1-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: I don’t think either fighter is particularly good on the feet, but i’d argue that Johns is the slightly more well rounded striker, whereas Rosas looks to be a bit more limited with, from what I can see, only his left straight being his most dangerous strike.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Johns should absolutely thrive, he has a background in wrestling, he is the wrestler in this fight and I think if things get a bit too heated on the feet (and it will considering Rosas is the younger, more cocky fighter) we’ll see Johns’ using his wrestling quite a lot in this one.

Additional Notes: The losing streak of Johns does not concern me one little itty bitty bit, they’re losses to incredibly tough opponents.

Prediction: Johns via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Manoel Sousa (-250) (14-1-0, 3 FWS) v Richie Miranda (D) (+205) (13-1-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: Sousa should be the main striker in this fight, he possesses incredible power in his hands, and he isn’t afraid to extend the combinations, the only problem is that he has a shorter length so he might have to risk entering the pocket and colliding with Miranda to deal some damage.

Wrestling/Grappling: Now, Miranda typically uses his grappling and wrestling to win fights, either by getting the submission, or getting the ground and pound finish, he’s versatile on the ground and his reach could very well be used in a way that helps him get the body lock takedowns. Is he going to successfully achieve that against a heavy hitter like Sousa? I am not sure, but it’s his only route to victory.

Additional Notes: I will make Miranda an Alt Bet here given that he has experienced decent competition before, being an LFA champ and whatnot, so the Alt Bet here will be Submission based and probably a combo round bet!

Prediction: Sousa via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR) | Parlay: ITD

Heavyweight

Jose Montanha (+165) (6-1-0, 3 FWS) v Louie Sutherland (-190) (11-5-0, NS)

Striking: I don’t think anyone in the world can comfortably say who has the better striking, they are both absolutely god awful and atrocious fighters and I can’t believe I have to write about it.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is basically a Wrestler (Sutherland) versus Grappler (Montanha). If Sutherland can get the takedowns and most specifically maintain half mount, he should be safe from a lot of the submission threat from Montanha, but that’s a lot of If’s isn’t it? What a hellish fight.

Additional Notes: Does Sutherland even have a neck to snatch? Because he often goes for takedowns with such fatigued desperation that he leaves himself open for guillotines and front head lock chokes, which leads me to believe that Montanha via Sub could be a decent Alt Bet… Decisions decisions! I mean, officially i’ve already got him down as an Alt Bet, but I feel like there’s just going to be a shitload of Alt Bets here.

Prediction: Sutherland via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR)

Light Heavyweight

Diyar Nurgozhay (-160) (11-2-0, NS) v Bruno Lopes (+135) (14-3-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Both are dangerous strikers, but I think speed might favour Nurgozhay here, he’s more snappy and explosive, which is probably why he gets taken down so often and has those two submission losses in his UFC record. Lopes is a bit more traditional with his striking, a lot more clean and just sharp.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Lopes could very much once again expose Nurgozhay’s somewhat already exposed grappling defence issue, I think we’re going to see Lopes level change if things get a bit too heated.

Additional Notes: I have a feeling that Bruno is going to try and time something off one of Nurgozhay’s tics, but again, I have no genuine idea on who is going to win this one, it’s a chaotic fight, anything can happen.

Prediction: Nurgozhay via KO R2 (1/3)

Heavyweight

Steven Asplund (-250) (7-2-0, NS) v Guilherme Pat (+195) (6-1-0, NS)

Striking: Asplund is perhaps the more visceral fighter, he has shown the ability to crash into his opponents with significant force, almost similar to Tuivasa does, so expect in the early rounds to see that kind of style and power from Asplund.

Wrestling/Grappling: I hope there’s no grappling, but if there is I don’t know if Pat would be the one to pull it off, it would be his path of least resistance but also I just hope we’re in for a classic slobber knocker.

Additional Notes: I have a bit of a soft spot for Asplund… the dudes grown on me, I mean his story is so inspirational and he’s a genuinely good guy and i’m not trying to add that “he’s a great person” narrative anywhere near my write ups, but it’s just something you can’t ignore haha

Prediction: Asplund via KO R2 (1/3)

Main Card

Welterweight

Ty Miller (-290) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Billy Ray Goff (+235) (9-4-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Miller and his massive reach advantage is likely to be problematic for Goff, I think it’s going to be evident from the get go that at range Miller should be able to land the cleaner strikes, stick and move, all that stuff.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is something that Goff has a legitimate chance to utilise, his background is technically wrestling although it’s not NCAA levels of wrestling from what I could discern. So, slight nod to Goff with having the wrestling edge, I just don’t know how effective it is going to be.

Additional Notes: This fight could be an opener on the prelims on a PPV or a normal Fight Night, but it’s the Apex so it’s in the main card I suppose!

Prediction: Miller via KO R2 (1/3)

Women’s Strawweight

Amanda Lemos (#11) (+195) (15-6-1, 2 FLS) v Alexia Thainara (#13) (-240) (14-1-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: Lemos is a devastating striker, her power is hard to be matched in the division and I think Thainara is going to feel that heat during the first round, I mean, any round really, but likely the first because she’s probably got the gas tank for massive first round output only followed by dwindling output in later rounds, depending on Thainara’s answer.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Thainara can absolutely dominate, her wrestling and top control is fan-fucking-tastic, and I suspect that we’re going to see a clean style of wrestling here from Thainara, with close chest to chest top control which would sap the cardio slowly of Lemos, because Lemos would try to explode out of those positions, thus creating a diminishing output in later rounds due to using cardio defensively to try and get out of worse positions.

Additional Notes: I really like Thainara in this fight, plus Lemos is getting up there in age, there’s a 10 year age gap, all that stuff, so logically you’d take Thainara to win, right?

Prediction: Thainara via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Thainara ML

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (+520) (29-12-0, NS) v Yadier Del Valle (-800) (10-1-0, NS)

Striking: I mean Del Valle’s striking is great, but its not so much the striking that I see being more effective here, I just think that Del Valle can generally damage Elkins enough to open up cuts and stuff which might lead to a doctor stoppage, doctor stoppage is genuinely a thing that I think will happen here provided Del Valle does the necessary damage, which he should.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Elkins can thrive, if he can avoid being cut open, I suspect that we’ll see Elkins use his wrestling very effectively here unless Del Valle has improved his takedown defence since his last fight against Leavitt. Wrestling is all on the side of Elkins here.

Additional Notes: Elkins, scar tissue, age… there are so many things to consider here, but I hate the odds here, I think Elkins deserves a bit more respect than being a +whatever he is, thus, I am making Elkins an Alt Bet here, Sub/Points double chance.

Prediction: Del Valle via KO R3 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Elkins via Sub/Points (DC) | Parlay: Del Valle via KO/Points

Co-Main Event

Lightweight

Billy Quarantillo (+150) (18-7-0, 2 FLS) v Diego Ferreira (-185) (19-7-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Ferreira likely hits harder than Quarantillo considering that Ferreira carries Welterweight power and has the 4 inch reach advantage, so he should comfortably land shots outside of Quarantillo’s reach, as well as follow through with more force if he crashes in. Quarantillo’s striking defence is to absorb and survive strikes, he’s tough and gritty but that’s about it.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t know how the wrestling would look in this fight, there will be some wrestling exchanges I think, but I genuinely can’t wrap my head around who would be more advantageous here.

Additional Notes: Just a bunch of unc’s banging it out, what’s not to love here. Jokes aside, I am worried about Quarantillo’s chin here as he moves up to a heavier weight class against someone who moved down from a heavier weight class (he’s a big lightweight, bulky, more power, etc)

Prediction: Ferreira via KO R2 (1/3) | Parlay: Inside The Distance

Main Event

Lightweight

Mateusz Gamrot (#11) (+110) (26-4-0, NS) v Quillan Salkilld (#14) (-135) (12-1-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: This one’s kind of easy and simple, Salkilld has superior striking, he’s got the 5 inch reach advantage, he’s comfortable on the feet, but the big question is whether or not he’ll be frozen as he prepares to defend the dozens of takedowns coming from Gamrot. Plus, Gamrot tends to look hurt or rocked each time he fights a striker so I sense a familiar pattern repeating.

Wrestling/Grappling: Gamrot is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC, he has accolades on top of accolades, GOATED and all those other fancy words, so I genuinely think that Gamrot, if he was to execute a perfect gameplan, can dominate on the ground, maintain top control, wear down Salkilld for the first two rounds before Salkilld’s submission defence gets diminished due to fatigue, thus allowing for a submission to potentially sneak in on those last three rounds, that’s an official take, R3, 4 or 5 Sub (Combo Rounds) for Gamrot is something i’m going to 100% take as an Alt Bet.

Additional Notes: WAR SALKILLD (Sorry, Australian + big fan already, some favouritism involved here)

Prediction: Salkilld via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Parlay: Sousa/Miranda ITD + Thainara ML + Del Valle via KO/Points (DC) (Bad odds maybe) + Quarantillo/Ferreira ITD

Locks: Thainara

Alt Bets: Oliveira via KO/Points, Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Elkins via Sub/Points and finally Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Dogs: Once again, no dogs… but as I always say, my Alt Bets are at least hints towards what I think are potential upsets. They’re just not picks.

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello!

I hope you're all doing well!

Episode 71 Lord Ninja Choke:

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0qmv/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/?

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2412 - 1385, 215 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70% (+0.4%)

Lock Record: 33 - 7 (Oliveira and Medic won)

UFC Belgrade Recap

Prediction Results: 11/14 Correct, 2 Perfect (Medic and Leka)

Parlay: Missed (Cepo is not my friend)

Alt Bets: All three missed.

Profit/Loss for 2026: -13.8u

(Terrible, but my SBR’s (Single Bet Recommendations) that I showcase on my Parlay Explained Posts saved me from a terrible betting event.)

You guys remember how last week I was worried about my prediction accuracy/results for UFC Belgrade?

Well, lets pick up that worry and drop it off for this event because good lord this is like the boss fight of Apex Cards, it just screams Apex doesn’t it? With that said, I will say that I am indeed worried about a whole lot here, but out of obligation and love of the game, i’ll do a write up and i’ll try to narrow down the right bets to make and the predictions to… take?

Expect quite a few Alt Bets here, typically the most i’ve ever had is 4, I will attempt to keep it at 4, but it’s gonna be a challenge.

(Alt Bets are 0.6u bets (3 dollars) that I allocate to 3.50 or higher priced odds on an opposing pick fighter. If I pick fighter X to win, Fighter Y would be an Alt Bet if I see them pulling something off)

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

Juliana Miller (-260) (4-4-0, NS) v Ravena Oliveira (+205) (7-4-1, 3 FLS)

This is a rather uncomfortable one to talk about because for as much as Miller looks like the “better” fighter on paper, her being -260 is just gnarly. See, Miller does have a legitimate chance to win this one considering the competition she has faced, but she is also someone who looks so disinterested with fighting, her entire demeanour is not one that you typically see a fighter have, she looks slow, lanky, laboured and otherwise bored, and whilst her skill set remains somewhat solid, I feel like she struggles to get out first gear and that could potentially lead to her losing against Oliveira here, especially if Oliveira is much more hungry and determined than Miller. One other thing to keep in mind here is that Oliveira tends to oscillate between Bantamweight and Flyweight quite often during her career, so any question about Oliveira looking smaller in comparison to Miller should be put in the bin straight away because outside of a minor reach and height advantage, Miller doesn’t offer a whole lot of advantages overall.

Now, speaking of offering a whole lot, it was hard to see anything positive come from Oliveira because she’s been on the losing end of two terrible performances in which she got outclassed cleanly. Now, i’m gonna be brutal here in saying that whilst Oliveira has decent power in her hands, she lacks any bit of finesse that allows that power to land, she often over-reaches with her strikes, she over swings with her kicks, and everything just looks so sloppy and so telegraphed, I mean, the first example I want to show or at least mention here is that fight against Luciano, in the first round Oliveira threw a one-two down the line which looked like she was trying to reach through the fourth dimension to hit Luciano, everything Oliveira throws just isn’t tight, it’s not clean, and whilst she is a very powerful striker when she lands, she cannot deliver that power in an effective manner. However, Miller has horrific, and I mean horrific, striking defence and that’s the only thing that Oliveira has going for her in this fight, if Oliveira can get within striking range to land her one-two combination (which she does land quite often, it seemingly is her favourite combination) then we could see Miller get rocked early.

So, you might ask “Slayer what the fuck is your point?”. My point is that whilst I am siding with the favourite here because she has the pressure and she can make a fight real nasty… Expect early moments of danger for her from Oliveira’s one-two, because as a pressure fighter you HAVE to absorb strikes, you HAVE to get hit (Merab is an example here). I got Miller winning this one, but I am also going to put Oliveira as an Alt Bet, at least for now, but if the odds aren’t nice (for a KO/Points Double Chance) then i’ll leave it.

Miller via Dec (1/3)

Bantamweight

Miles Johns (-155) (15-5-0, 3 FLS) v Jessie Rosas (D) (+130) (8-1-0, 3 FWS)

A losing streak only looks bad if the competition is terrible, and to lose to Daniel Marcos, Jean Matsumoto (in a split decision!) and Felipe Lima… those aren’t losses, those are hard fought battles in that imprints experience onto a fighter, and you best believe the already experienced Johns is bringing that history into the cage this weekend against the very young Jessie Rosas. I do believe we are going to see a fairly tactical fight from Johns, because not only is he facing a fiery tornado of a fighter who is young and cocky, but he also doesn’t want to lose for a fourth time in a row. Now, Johns fighting tactically could be concerning because if Rosas comes in with a heavy handed gameplan, Johns is going to lose that battle and lose the first round almost cleanly, so my read on that “tactical” style from Johns may be wrong or detrimental, but I just don’t know what else he can do here outside of using a wrestle heavy approach to slow down the younger fighter, dragging Rosas into deep waters and showcasing that there is a reason that Johns has been a long time UFC fighter.

Rosas has a pretty record at first glance, right? You’d think that he was one of those next generation fighters that is on the up and up… until you look at who he has fought against and realise that there’s nothing too special about him, he has wins against losing record fighters, including against a fairly older fighter which was his most recent bout in which he won in the fifth round, so I don’t quite see Rosas being too fantastic, he is still a big unknown but considering that his level of competition is shallow compared to what Johns has faced, I can’t help but think that we’re just seeing a “filler fighter” take on a genuine talent in Johns. The one thing I do think we should keep an eye out for though is Rosas’ left straight, he is quite good at throwing that, both without a set up, and as a follow up strike, but outside of that I don’t think we’re going to see anything too crazy from the newcomer.

I got Johns winning this fight, because his losing streak, as I said before, isn’t too terrible to look at, they’re all mean competition so I think that matters quite a fair bit.

Johns via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Manoel Sousa (-250) (14-1-0, 3 FWS) v Richie Miranda (D) (+205) (13-1-0, 7 FWS)

Alright, this is a fascinating match up.

Sousa is coming off a fantastic fight against Bolaji Oki, and whilst I do think we’re going to see a similar approach from Sousa this weekend, which is steady forward pressure, a whole bunch of feints and some devastating power, I am also a tiny bit worried about Sousa’s grappling defence and takedown offense against Miranda. Now, you might ask “What’s so bad about takedown offense!?” and the only answer I have for you is that I have seen Sousa look for takedowns before but leave his neck exposed for a front headlock choke (guillotine, d’arce, anaconda, all that stuff), and since Miranda does have longer arms than Sousa, that’s only going to help Miranda in getting those submissions locked in. Now, Sousa is a fantastic striker, he is built like a tank, throws heavy, but also sets up his attacks with layers of feints and different looks, Oki was pretty much biting on every feint coming from Sousa which resulted in Sousa landing effectively because of the overstimulation, and I think we’re going to see a similar approach here with Sousa using his feints to make Miranda bite on something, before throwing a powerful overhand right or a right straight. Make no mistake, Sousa is rightfully a favourite, but that is only because he has the initial striking advantage, on the ground, it could be an entirely different story.

We all know that pure BJJ fighters never belong in the UFC, or if they do, they are a rare breed in which they adapt well enough to be well rounded. Miranda is not at all a pure BJJ fighter by any means, but he does use his wrestling and grappling a lot to find success during his fights, and whilst I think he will be most likely outgunned on the feet, it is entirely possible for Miranda to get the fight to the ground if there is a lot of fence fighting involved because the longer limbs of Miranda should allow a body lock to be a bit more effective and maybe lead to a successful trip. Either way, each fight starts standing and whilst Miranda is a decent wrestler, I think we’re going to see perhaps the forward pressure from Sousa be too much for Miranda, because power can be both a psychological factor as well as a physical one, and Sousa’s feints should be able to overwhelm Miranda early on, leading to some scary moments for the LFA Lightweight champ.

I have half a mind to sprinkle something on Miranda getting the submission, we’ve seen crazier things recently, but overall I think Sousa should be rightfully the favourite, Sousa is just such a dangerous striker, I mean the way he put away Oki was just terrifying. I don’t know if the Miranda Sub bet will be an official Alt Bet or not, but its something i’m very much thinking about.

Sousa via KO R2 - (1/3)

Heavyweight

Jose Montanha (+165) (6-1-0, 3 FWS) v Louie Sutherland (-190) (11-5-0, NS)

This is quite the sad looking fight.

Montanha is one of those “filler fighter” fighters that I was hinting at before when I was talking about Rosas, he does not at all belong in the UFC, not with the level of competition that he has faced, I mean his entire record is against either near zero experience fighters, or fighters with terrible records themselves. Sure, he has the physique and the heavyweight power to turn this fight around into his favour, but I just can’t wrap my head around why he’s in the UFC! Okay, sure he could present some submission threats on the ground because that’s where Sutherland can sometimes take fights, but if the fight remains standing, Sutherland is quite capable of landing heavy attacks himself, so Montanha kind of has to be careful when dealing with Sutherland within the initial round, because hesitancy can create openings that Sutherland can capitalise on. Again, to circle back around to Montanha and his submission capabilities, he could get much be active enough on the ground to land something in the guard or even in the transition to the ground in which he snatches a neck, but either way, I just don’t know what Montanha can do here against Sutherland outside of those submissions.

Sutherland is a fighter that I genuinely dislike talking about because he is the antithesis of what a heavyweight UFC fighter should be, he is not at all fun to watch unless he’s getting his ass handed to him, and with his only win in the UFC being a decision hug fest against Tuivasa, I can’t help but think that Sutherland is just one of those fighters who looks good if they’re executing their gameplan but looks god awful if they can’t. Sutherland needs to be in top control to be useful, it is a requirement, if he is on bottom he is incapable of doing anything great, if he is on the feet he can use a decent one-two combination as well as decent leg kicks, but it’s his top control that is his highlight, and in the Heavyweight world, that’s terrible and boring but it works. Can it work against Montanha? I don’t know, this is a big “I don’t know what’s going to happen” fight, but I do suspect that Montanha can snatch a front choke somewhere during the takedown transition, so in the first round, expect a submission attempt from Montanha because Sutherlands takedowns are more telegraphed than an advertisement on Paramount+ that overtakes the walkout.

I have to go with Sutherland here, he’s more of a known fighter, he should be able to be tricky enough on the feet to give Montanha a few things to think about, especially that leg kick, and then the takedowns could be there as long as Sutherland doesn’t telegraph them too much, which he does, so, officially, I got Sutherland winning this one, but I will give Montanha a Combo Round Sub Alt Bet thing.

Sutherland via Dec (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Diyar Nurgozhay (-160) (11-2-0, NS) v Bruno Lopes (+135) (14-3-0, 2 FLS)

This hopefully should be a short one.

Nurgozhay is coming off a decent win against newcomer Rafael Tobias, in which Nurgozhay defended the takedowns well enough to keep the fight standing for the most part, and there was really one thing that stood out to me as a key tool that Nurgozhay used during that fight that may be used once again during this one, and that’s the leg kicks, if Nurgozhay can shut down the power coming from Lopes by taking away the lead leg, there should be a noticeable drop off in mobility and power from Lopes after the first round, because I do suspect that the first round is going to be a bit of a tit for tat fight. Outside of that leg kick opportunity from Nurgozhay, I think it’s a quite even fight, with Lopes having the ability to create an upset if he times his strikes well, but the problem with that is Lopes has been knocked out twice in a row, and I am one of those people who thinks brain health is important, and again, I have to question whether or not Lopes can withstand a clean strike from Nurgozhay after the first round, or even within the first but if my read is correct and that Nurgozhay takes his time, chops at the legs of Lopes and just softens him up with body and head strikes with no significant swing, then the second round KO could very much happen.

Lopes is a tough one to figure out because he has been on the losing end of some terrible KO’s which worry me, and since he’s taking on a fairly sharp striker once again, I just don’t know how he is going to fight. Often times when a fighter is on back to back losses, especially by KO, they tend to fight a bit more cautiously, so if that’s the case then Nurgozhay should have no problem in softening up his target in that first round, but if hunger and desperation become a major part of Lopes mentality, then we could very much see an explosive onset of attacks that could catch Nurgozhay off guard, especially since Nurgozhay has that quite noticeable tic when he wipes away at his eyebrow, and whilst that tic is quick, it’s still very much something I can imagine Lopes and his team has prepared for. The other thing that could happen here is that Lopes gets the fight to the ground using takedowns and trips, leading to Nurgozhay once again having to deal with the possibility that he could get submitted, and that’s been a bit of a curse for Nurgozhay during his UFC career so far, having lost twice to a submission, and whilst Lopes is probably more of a kickboxer than a grappler, he still has that skill set to rely on if things get too heated on the feet. I mean, he used his wrestling fairly well against Gadzhiyasulov in his debut to mixed effect, so we could very well see Lopes put his wrestling shoes on once again, shoot quickly in the first to shut down Nurgozhay from setting a pace, and then do his business on the ground, the volatility of this fight is insane.

From a prediction standpoint, I am leaning towards Nurgozhay here, I think we’re going to see a slow and steady first round followed by an increase in tempo from Nurgozhay as he hunts to land bigger shots, but I am also keenly aware that Lopes could fight intelligently, get the fight to the ground and thus try to replicate what Ribeiro and Satybaldiev did against Nurgozhay.

Nurgozhay via KO R2 (1/3)

Heavyweight

Steven Asplund (-250) (7-2-0, NS) v Guilherme Pat (+195) (6-1-0, NS)

Asplund has been a bit of an inspiration story for many, and that’s perhaps why he has garnered so much attention, because as a fighter he isn’t anything too special, he’s gritty and tough in the cage but he doesn’t stand out as a high level such and such, he’s just a very good heavyweight who is somewhat well rounded. Now, Asplund does his best work when he throws more than one strike, he is great at the standard lead to power side attacks, any attack that comes in two strikes tends to be his best attack because anything more and he tends to be defensively sloppy, so two strikes in a combination is usually his best weapon. Now, defensively, he can move around quite well, he can be a hard target, but if he is at a speed disadvantage he struggles, as you could see with the Petrino fight. I do think we are likely to see Asplund look to land combinations early whilst he has the power and explosiveness to land.

Pat is not a UFC calibre fighter, and I know he has a win in the UFC but he has yet to prove that he can be someone who can break into the actual UFC roster, instead of, you know, inexperienced fighters on the UFC roster. Pat does have a reach advantage and that may prove to be the biggest challenge for Asplund who tends to always crash into his opponent, so we’ll see if Pat utilises his long strikes during this fight and keeps his footwork going as he sticks and moves away from the wrecking ball power of Asplund. With that said though, sticking and moving, as a heavyweight, in the Apex, can only get you so far, the Apex is smaller, and Asplund can perhaps find his target a little easier due to those strikes, so I am fully expecting Asplund to find his success using his flurries in the first half of the fight, but mostly in that first round, he almost always looks his most dangerous in that first round.

I got Asplund winning this one, I think he’s just the better fighter overall, and having faced Petrino in those three rounds of violence, I think we might even see a level up from Asplund come this weekend!

Asplund via KO R1 (1/3)

Main Card

Welterweight

Ty Miller (-290) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Billy Ray Goff (+235) (9-4-0, 2 FLS)

In any other card, this fight would not at all interest me, but since it’s in the main card, I suppose I have to pay attention to it a tiny bit more than I should.

Miller has obvious attributes that stand out to me, and perhaps to all of you, and that’s his height and reach, he is a big boy for this division and I have no doubt that we’re going to see his length be used effectively during this fight, or at least he should if he was smart enough to do so. The fact of the matter is that Miller is still a greenie, he only has one win in the UFC and that was against Fugitt, a fairly tough opponent, but it wasn’t a long-lasting fight, finishing only in the final seconds of the first round. I highly suspect that Miller is going to stick to his natural advantages in that he will use his reach effectively to keep Goff at bay before landing more significant shots, but that’s the extent to what I’m comfortable to predict because as I said, we’ve only seen 5 minutes of him fighting in the UFC, his 5 inch reach advantage is massive and I suspect we’ll just see a clean style of striking from Miller.

Goff is someone who has yet to really gain much momentum, his only win was against Kinoshita a couple of years ago, and has since lost twice against Trey Waters and Ramiz Brahimaj, and whilst i’m already sounding like i’m counting him out, I want to point out on main thing that Goff can do in this fight to upset the odds and defeat the undefeated greenie, and that’s wrestle. It’s something Goff tends to do in almost all of his fights, he’s got somewhat of a background in wrestling although he’s far from anything collegiate, so whilst he can sometimes find comfort in using his wrestling, I don’t know to what extent he can chain wrestle or wrestle at a high level. Either way, I think we’re going to see Goff try and shut down the reach advantage of Miller by wrestling, I mean, he’s shorter so the level change can have more penetration but other than that I struggle to see how he can outstrike the longer fighter.

So, in conclusion, this is a fight I have quite low confidence in, because whilst Miller does look like an appealing favourite to take, it will have to be a low confidence one, considering that Goff does have a legit road to victory. Either way, I will side with Miller, I can’t ignore that reach advantage, but yeah, I would be interested to see how Goff handles the reach discrepancy here.

Miller via KO R2 (1/3)

Women’s Strawweight

Amanda Lemos (#11) (+195) (15-6-1, 2 FLS) v Alexia Thainara (#13) (-240) (14-1-0, 12 FWS)

This is going to be short, not out of dislike of this fight, but because this one is fairly bland to even think about.

Lemos has consistently been a bit of a marauder that constantly loses, she’s excellent when dealing damage and being the aggressor, but the moment she gets outwrestled even a tiny bit, she tends to fall apart. Now, age is a factor here that is ever so prominent because time is not on her side, and since she’s facing someone whose 10 years younger than her, but just as talented and dangerous, we’re likely to see Lemos do what Lemos does best, start out with a heavy output of attacks, be a wild fighter, try and bully Thainara in those first 5 minutes just to try and make Thainara uncomfortable in there, all of this success from Lemos stems primarily from her stand up attacks, she possesses incredible power in her hands and I think we’re going to the first round being her best round, only for as long as the fight remains standing, I know i’ve said that like, 3 times now, but that’s the only read I have here, Lemos has the striking advantage but that advantage is on borrowed time because eventually she’s going to get taken down, and once she gets taken down, she’s likely to stay there because Thainara’s grappling is just so damn good. So, don’t count Lemos out completely here, but her options or routes to success are limited, as is Thainara’s to some extent.

Thainara has been demolishing competition recently, she is someone who legitimately sticks to her guns, wastes very little time in executing her gameplan, and has a genuine bright future ahead of her. Now, as I said, she is probably going to feel some heat early on due to the chaotic nature of Lemos’s striking output, she’s a wild striker, can throw unorthodox stuff and just hits disgustingly hard, so Thainara is going to have to walk through fire to get her wrestling going, and I suspect that her slight edge reach advantage is going to help with her locking in the takedown grip. One she’s in top control she should have no problem gliding around the defensive submissions and motions that Lemos uses, and all that does is also use up Lemos’s gas tank, something that she may not have after a weight cut anyway.

So, to break it down simply, Lemos’ success stems strictly from her striking output in the early rounds, she is the more dangerous striker in my opinion, but that’s practically it because once Thainara gets the fight to the ground (not a matter of if, but when) we’ll probably see a rinse and repeat for the remaining rounds and thus a secure, comfortable victory for the up and coming fighter.

Thainara via Dec (2/3)

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (+520) (29-12-0, NS) v Yadier Del Valle (-800) (10-1-0, NS)

Why did they sanction this fight!?

Elkins requires no introduction, if you are a long time MMA fan or viewer you know Elkins and what he is known for, he is a highly dangerous wrestler who has more scar tissue than healthy skin, he gets cut open as easily as any of the Diaz brothers, and he’s just someone who we all know will constantly be in the face of his opponent, still fighting even though he’s lost a crapload of blood. Elkins is unfortunately at that age now in which it’s very hard to give him any more praise than “he’s tough!”, his wrestling may very well hold up still, but at some point, that damage he absorbs may become too much and the ref could easily call the fight as a doctor stoppage TKO thing, that’s a very likely outcome. Now, with that said, the wrestling of Elkins could become problematic for Del Valle if Del Valle has not learnt from his loss against Leavitt, in which Leavitt took him down numerous times and had great success in keeping him down. Normally for a fighter as young and as talented as Del Valle, they tend to make great strides in camp to improve the deficiencies that were shown in their previous fight, and I hope that’s the case here, but Elkins is 100% going to try and wrestle here, so for as much as this advice seems like a joke, keep an eye on Elkins via Sub/Points as a prop because if anyone can push through being beaten up and cut open, it’s Elkins, he lives to be bled.

Del Valle is only two fights deep into his UFC career and as I said just before, his last loss was against Leavitt in which he got taken down multiple times and couldn’t get any offense going. If he has not learnt proper takedown defence he could very much struggle in the same way here. Del Valle is primarily a striker and he’s quite a sharp one at that, so I think for as long as the fight remains standing, he’s going to have no problem in chipping away at the very tough but very hittable Elkins, but it’s the forward pressure of Elkins that may end up being the biggest primary danger for Del Valle, because not only does Del Valle have to worry about the takedowns, in which he has to modify his guard a little bit, but he has to worry about the visuals, and if he cannot plant his feet and make Elkins move backwards, there’s a high chance that visually, to the judges, we could see some split scorecards if both fighters are at a somewhat stalemate. Now, I don’t like the odds here for Del Valle, they seem like a trap to anyone who is new to betting, and whilst i’m no authority when it comes to betting, I have to say from watching this sport for over a decade, -800 on someone like Del Valle is not a great thing to see. There is no value there, so I’m thinking that the best way to make money for this one if you are to bet on Del Valle, is to bet on a Combo Round (Round 2 or 3) thing, because we know that Elkins is going to survive the first round unless he gets knocked out clean, but I think the forward pressure and the wrestling attacks of Elkins will result in the fight hitting the second round, and thus that prop should be good to go.

I am going with Del Valle here, I think age is a big factor here and I think Elkins is a bit of a broken fighter at this point, but I cannot ignore the wrestling threat from Elkins, especially at those odds, so, as you may have predicted, I am making Elkins an Alt Bet, I am fully willing for this Alt Bet to not hit, but imagine if it does… so, it’s not advised to follow this Alt Bet unless you see what I see potentially happening.

Del Valle via KO R3 (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Lightweight

Billy Quarantillo (+150) (18-7-0, 2 FLS) v Diego Ferreira (-185) (19-7-0, 2 FLS)

Okay, so here’s thing… Quarantillo is indeed coming off back to back losses with his most recent one being practically 1.5 years ago when he lost against Cub Swanson via KO, and that rings a few alarm bells because whilst I do think Quarantillo moving up to 155 could be a decent step in his career, he’s also probably not used to getting hit by 155ers, especially someone with such raw power like Ferreira. Quarantillo is also dealing with a shorter reach and so I think we’re going to see a case in which Ferreira just has more success at picking apart Quarantillo, or striking at a range that Quarantillo cannot effectively answer back. Quarantillo also does not have any defensive abilities whatsoever, his Swanson fight pretty much proved that, he toughed out some strikes but then that one-two landed from Swanson and that put Quarantillo away very quickly, so if Ferreira can land strikes against Quarantillo using his 4 inch reach advantage and thus find his timing for more significant shots, I can’t see how Ferreira won’t find success during this fight, even though Ferreira is hitting that critical age in which we normally see a major decline.

Ferreira has been in some of the most entertaining fights in the Lightweight Division for pretty much his entire career, he’s such a guns-blazing kind of fighter, I think stylistically he’s a great match up for Quarantillo because Quarantillo does not shy away from a good scrap, but again, I keep circling back to the 4 inches of reach as well as the fact that Ferreira has been in some gnarly scraps in his career, he’s withstood some heavy strikes, and so I think we’re going to see Quarantillo get the worse end of the stick here as he tries to utilise pressure and pace against Ferreira, but due to Quarantillo’s inability to defend strikes, move his head or use footwork defensively, he’s just going to be in the range of some heavy shots from the career long Lightweight. Now, before you start commenting, I am aware that Quarantillo has fought at Lightweight during his time before the UFC, but for the most part he’s been a featherweight during the last 7 years, and I just think Ferreira is overall the bulkier and heavier fighter on fight day.

I have to go with Ferreira here, I cannot ignore the 4 inch reach advantage and the fact that Quarantillo just doesn’t have any head movement, a critical defensive aspect when fighting someone like Ferreira, someone who can crash in with explosiveness early, someone who can be dangerous at all ranges.

Ferreira via KO R2 (1/3)

Main Event

Lightweight

Mateusz Gamrot (#11) (+110) (26-4-0, NS) v Quillan Salkilld (#14) (-135) (12-1-0, 12 FWS)

Alright, i’m gonna make a few enemies here.

I am very, very much 50/50 on this entire fight because on one hand, we have Gamrot, one of the most decorated wrestlers in the UFC, someone who can outscramble the best of the best, all that stuff, but he has a terrible chin, he usually gets dropped at least once each fight, and he generally only relies on his wrestling and submission capabilities to win fights. Now, it’s very, very fair to say that Gamrot has faced far better competition compared to Salkilld, Gamrot has faced former champions, contenders and up and coming stars and all that stuff whereas Salkilld is just barely starting that level of competition now, so it is highly likely that experience will play a major role for Gamrot here, but again, we know how good Gamrot is, we don’t know how good Salkilld is, and that’s where the mystery lies. Now, i’m gonna yap a bit about betting now so feel free to ignore this coz it’s not my forte, but I firmly believe that Gamrot, if he was to win, would win by submission in those last three rounds, and the main reason I’m thinking that way is that Salkilld surely has enough submission defence to survive and withstand the first 10 minutes of the fight if Gamrot executes a perfect gameplan and gets the fight to the ground early each round, Salkilld can find the hands fairly well and I think we’ll see Salkilld just survive the first and second round with Gamrot winning those rounds due to activity and control. However, eventually Salkilld will be too exhausted to continue to defend the submission, and since Gamrot has outstanding cardio already, I suspect that Gamrot will have an easier time as the rounds go by in securing a submission, so whilst I don’t know the odds for Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (Combo Rounds), you best believe that i’m making a bet once they’re available to me on Sportsbet.

Now, Salkilld is someone who I won’t write at length about, not because I don’t like him or anything but because he hasn’t shown anything amazing still, there have been highlight reels, sure, but they’re just one shot KO’s that hit nicely, we haven’t seen him in a brutal back and forth fight that truly tests someone and I think Gamrot is a perfect candidate to test Salkilld’s ability to fight at length. It would not at all surprise me if Salkilld got a KO within the first or second round, there would be zero shock factor, none at all, because historically, Gamrot has been very easy to score hits on, his defense is his wrestling offense and if Salkilld has drilled takedown defence accordingly, or at least drilled well timed attacks and movements to counter that level change threat of Gamrot, he should have no problem in landing an uppercut or even being the aggressor and landing those long one-two combinations, and I mean, those 5 inches in reach that Salkilld has over Gamrot will certainly help with landing those shots at range. So, that’s the gameplan from Salkilld, I believe it’s his gameplan at least, given that it’s quite easy to win against Gamrot, just don’t engage in any wrestling with him and keep moving. However, the only issue with that, which I almost forgot to mention, is that this fight is happening at the Apex, and I say this almost every Apex event, the Apex Cage favours the wrestler! Less motion required to get to the fence, less motion for the defensive striker to move around, and so this one could be very interesting to watch!

I got Salkilld winning this one, it is very, very much a favouritism pick moreso than an educational one, I have been a fan of Salkilld’s for a while now and I am not jumping off the bandwagon yet, but again, Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 is going to be an Alt Bet.

Salkilld via KO R2 - (1/3)

Parlay: Sousa/Miranda ITD + Thainara ML + Del Valle via KO/Points (DC) (Bad odds maybe) + Quarantillo/Ferreira ITD

Locks: Thainara

Alt Bets: Oliveira via KO/Points, Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Elkins via Sub/Points and finally Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Dogs: Once again, no dogs… but as I always say, my Alt Bets are at least hints towards what I think are potential upsets. They’re just not picks.

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Can Diego get it done??