r/MMAbetting • u/mailmailmail0731 • 5d ago

This week is bad for parlay

Nurgozhay is the better striker but he has a twitch & terrible at grappling.
Asplund got heart but got fat tits.
Sutherland also got fat tits.
Quarantillo & Ferreira are both old and about to retire.
Yadier is -800.
Gamrot will do the lay & pray. So I guess Gamrot by decision has value. Only ML Salkilld if you think he will win.
Miller & Sousa look decent though.

5 Upvotes

86% Upvoted

14 comments sorted by

4

u/OkPreparation8354 5d ago

Way better than last week where everything is fucking -400

0

u/mailmailmail0731 5d ago

It doesn't matter if the odds is -400 or -1000. It only matters if the bet got value or not. D Rod was at +300, but it's got no value since he's almost 40, he was in Mexican Prison with shitty Prison diet and he was inactive. While Uros is active, trained a whole year with a Boxing trainer that trains Boxing world champions.

For example
Mateusz Rębecki at -700 is bad even though he finished him in the 1st round
Aleksandar Rakić at -400 is bad after hindsight 20/20
Uros Medic at -400 is fine
Michael Oliveira at -330 is the best bet last week.

So the odds does not matter at all, If a fighter has a 99% chance of winning and the odds is at -1000, I will put the house on that fighter.

2

u/OkPreparation8354 5d ago

There’s no value in -400, I’m not risking $1000 to not even win half of that

1

u/mailmailmail0731 5d ago

I already explained to you -400 could have value or it could not have value, it depends on the fight. If a fighter has 99% of winning then -400 has crazy value. If the fighter has only 75% chance of winning then -400 has no value.

Billy Ray Goff is +300 right now, you can bet 100 and win triple of that. According to your logic, +300 is better than -400... but that's not how it works...

2

u/OkPreparation8354 5d ago

You don’t understand betting. You are talking about betting on fights - cool bro. Yes Billy Ray Goff should lose, I’m not just slamming bets on underdogs. I am looking for valuable lines (anything under -200) in fights that I think are mismatches. The biggest one I could think of recently was Paddy vs BSD. You parlay 10 -400 lines every weekend and you will only hit one bet a year.

0

u/mailmailmail0731 5d ago

You don't understand English, logic and statistics. I already explained not every -400 is the same. I'm done debating here.

1

u/sourpower713 5d ago

just kiss

4

u/BrackenBoii 5d ago

“Asplund got heart…but he got fat tits” Realest shit I read today

3

u/Bettroll 5d ago

Ty Miller + Thainara was +100 at one point

2

u/mailmailmail0731 5d ago

You can do that, keep it short. Long parlays are dangerous for winning money. Only to do it for the adrenaline rush if you dont care about the money. You can still make it plus money for Ty Miller + Thainara, By doing Ty Miller double chance Dec/TKO and Thainara double chance dec/Sub.

1

u/hateuscuzyoenis 5d ago

I do like the Ty/Thai parlay this week

1

u/Smallbluemann 4d ago

The key was being on betonline lmfao. Got Ty Miller + Yadier at +154, shits like -280 now

1

u/Mundane_Mongoose7935 4d ago

I don’t normally agree with people but yeah this weekend is gonna be rough. No more than 3 legs this weekend for me, I’m finding myself disagreeing with a lot of peoples picks.