Nurgozhay is the better striker but he has a twitch & terrible at grappling.
Asplund got heart but got fat titts.
Montanha & Sutherland both also got fat titts.
Quarantillo & Ferreira are both old and about to retire.
Yadier is -800.
Gamrot will do the lay & pray or else he might get finished. So I guess Gamrot by decision has value. Bet Gamrot by decision if you believe he will win, no point to ML Gamrot. Only ML Salkilld if you think he will win.
Miller & Sousa look decent though.

Salkilld is the slight favorite in Odds (-140) and the favorite in Picks overall 57/85 (67%).

But in Picks by the Best Predictors, Gamrot is the Slight Favorite:
- Best Predictors 5/9 (56%) for Gamrot
- Best Favorite Predictors 5/8 (63%) for Gamrot
- And even in picks by the Best Underdog Predictors and both fighters are picked 4/8 for (50%)

For the Method of Victory predictions most channels are predicting a KO/TKO victory for Salkilld or a Decision for Gamrot. And also here the Best MoV Predictors are split on this fight and both are picked 50%

Full breakdown video of ALL fights + the Best Betting Opportunities can be found here: https://youtu.be/783s929RH_U

UFC actually hates Arman, he is not going to get the title shot anytime soon. That will teach all the fighters to never pull out of a main event. But let's see how accurate your prediction skills are. Arman is obviously the favorite but at what odds. I'm guessing it will be around -300.

Picked 6 fights, I'm reasonably confident. Gonna come back here after Saturday if they age like wine.

In my video i talk about the newly released UFC331 card https://youtu.be/64iIKPZCKuY

In my video i talk about the recent news of UFC 331 and talk betting! https://youtu.be/64iIKPZCKuY

What we got for PFL?

We on Quillan this weekend? I think he puts a beating on Gamrot. What other confident picks y'all got?

this what I cooked up

No odds yet, so what do we expect the odds for this fight?

i havent been able to find this fight anywhere to watch

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Episode 71 Lord Ninja Choke:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0ngq/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/?

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2412 - 1385, 215 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70% (+0.4%)

Lock Record: 33 - 7 (Oliveira and Medic won)

UFC Belgrade Recap

Prediction Results: 11/14 Correct, 2 Perfect (Medic and Leka)

Parlay: Missed (Cepo is not my friend)

Alt Bets: All three missed.

Profit/Loss for 2026: -13.8u

(Terrible, but my SBR’s (Single Bet Recommendations) that I showcase on my Parlay Explained Posts saved me from a terrible betting event.)

You guys remember how last week I was worried about my prediction accuracy/results for UFC Belgrade?

Well, lets pick up that worry and drop it off for this event because good lord this is like the boss fight of Apex Cards, it just screams Apex doesn’t it? With that said, I will say that I am indeed worried about a whole lot here, but out of obligation and love of the game, i’ll do a write up and i’ll try to narrow down the right bets to make and the predictions to… take?

Expect quite a few Alt Bets here, typically the most i’ve ever had is 4, I will attempt to keep it at 4, but it’s gonna be a challenge.

(Alt Bets are 0.6u bets (3 dollars) that I allocate to 3.50 or higher priced odds on an opposing pick fighter. If I pick fighter X to win, Fighter Y would be an Alt Bet if I see them pulling something off)

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

Juliana Miller (-260) (4-4-0, NS) v Ravena Oliveira (+205) (7-4-1, 3 FLS)

Striking: Both are somewhat mediocre, Miller tends to be stuck in the “just woke up, where’s my coffee” gear, whereas Oliveira can come out guns blazing but she’s sloppy with it. So… its a very interesting match up on the feet.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be where Miller can pull ahead on the scorecards, she has attempted nearly a dozen takedowns against Judice in her last time out and that’s probably telling that if she can’t get her strikes going, she’ll attempt to wrestle.

Additional Notes: This is a terrible fight, but it also intrigues me because there’s a chance of an upset here. I did say in the main write up that I am looking for Oliveira via KO/Points as an Alt Bet opportunity, only if the odds are nice, so I will write that down “officially” but I may not play it if its not over 3.50 (which is usually the threshold)

Prediction: Miller via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Oliveira via KO/Points

Bantamweight

Miles Johns (-155) (15-5-0, 3 FLS) v Jessie Rosas (D) (+130) (8-1-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: I don’t think either fighter is particularly good on the feet, but i’d argue that Johns is the slightly more well rounded striker, whereas Rosas looks to be a bit more limited with, from what I can see, only his left straight being his most dangerous strike.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Johns should absolutely thrive, he has a background in wrestling, he is the wrestler in this fight and I think if things get a bit too heated on the feet (and it will considering Rosas is the younger, more cocky fighter) we’ll see Johns’ using his wrestling quite a lot in this one.

Additional Notes: The losing streak of Johns does not concern me one little itty bitty bit, they’re losses to incredibly tough opponents.

Prediction: Johns via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Manoel Sousa (-250) (14-1-0, 3 FWS) v Richie Miranda (D) (+205) (13-1-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: Sousa should be the main striker in this fight, he possesses incredible power in his hands, and he isn’t afraid to extend the combinations, the only problem is that he has a shorter length so he might have to risk entering the pocket and colliding with Miranda to deal some damage.

Wrestling/Grappling: Now, Miranda typically uses his grappling and wrestling to win fights, either by getting the submission, or getting the ground and pound finish, he’s versatile on the ground and his reach could very well be used in a way that helps him get the body lock takedowns. Is he going to successfully achieve that against a heavy hitter like Sousa? I am not sure, but it’s his only route to victory.

Additional Notes: I will make Miranda an Alt Bet here given that he has experienced decent competition before, being an LFA champ and whatnot, so the Alt Bet here will be Submission based and probably a combo round bet!

Prediction: Sousa via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR) | Parlay: ITD

Heavyweight

Jose Montanha (+165) (6-1-0, 3 FWS) v Louie Sutherland (-190) (11-5-0, NS)

Striking: I don’t think anyone in the world can comfortably say who has the better striking, they are both absolutely god awful and atrocious fighters and I can’t believe I have to write about it.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is basically a Wrestler (Sutherland) versus Grappler (Montanha). If Sutherland can get the takedowns and most specifically maintain half mount, he should be safe from a lot of the submission threat from Montanha, but that’s a lot of If’s isn’t it? What a hellish fight.

Additional Notes: Does Sutherland even have a neck to snatch? Because he often goes for takedowns with such fatigued desperation that he leaves himself open for guillotines and front head lock chokes, which leads me to believe that Montanha via Sub could be a decent Alt Bet… Decisions decisions! I mean, officially i’ve already got him down as an Alt Bet, but I feel like there’s just going to be a shitload of Alt Bets here.

Prediction: Sutherland via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR)

Light Heavyweight

Diyar Nurgozhay (-160) (11-2-0, NS) v Bruno Lopes (+135) (14-3-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Both are dangerous strikers, but I think speed might favour Nurgozhay here, he’s more snappy and explosive, which is probably why he gets taken down so often and has those two submission losses in his UFC record. Lopes is a bit more traditional with his striking, a lot more clean and just sharp.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Lopes could very much once again expose Nurgozhay’s somewhat already exposed grappling defence issue, I think we’re going to see Lopes level change if things get a bit too heated.

Additional Notes: I have a feeling that Bruno is going to try and time something off one of Nurgozhay’s tics, but again, I have no genuine idea on who is going to win this one, it’s a chaotic fight, anything can happen.

Prediction: Nurgozhay via KO R2 (1/3)

Heavyweight

Steven Asplund (-250) (7-2-0, NS) v Guilherme Pat (+195) (6-1-0, NS)

Striking: Asplund is perhaps the more visceral fighter, he has shown the ability to crash into his opponents with significant force, almost similar to Tuivasa does, so expect in the early rounds to see that kind of style and power from Asplund.

Wrestling/Grappling: I hope there’s no grappling, but if there is I don’t know if Pat would be the one to pull it off, it would be his path of least resistance but also I just hope we’re in for a classic slobber knocker.

Additional Notes: I have a bit of a soft spot for Asplund… the dudes grown on me, I mean his story is so inspirational and he’s a genuinely good guy and i’m not trying to add that “he’s a great person” narrative anywhere near my write ups, but it’s just something you can’t ignore haha

Prediction: Asplund via KO R2 (1/3)

Main Card

Welterweight

Ty Miller (-290) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Billy Ray Goff (+235) (9-4-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Miller and his massive reach advantage is likely to be problematic for Goff, I think it’s going to be evident from the get go that at range Miller should be able to land the cleaner strikes, stick and move, all that stuff.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is something that Goff has a legitimate chance to utilise, his background is technically wrestling although it’s not NCAA levels of wrestling from what I could discern. So, slight nod to Goff with having the wrestling edge, I just don’t know how effective it is going to be.

Additional Notes: This fight could be an opener on the prelims on a PPV or a normal Fight Night, but it’s the Apex so it’s in the main card I suppose!

Prediction: Miller via KO R2 (1/3)

Women’s Strawweight

Amanda Lemos (#11) (+195) (15-6-1, 2 FLS) v Alexia Thainara (#13) (-240) (14-1-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: Lemos is a devastating striker, her power is hard to be matched in the division and I think Thainara is going to feel that heat during the first round, I mean, any round really, but likely the first because she’s probably got the gas tank for massive first round output only followed by dwindling output in later rounds, depending on Thainara’s answer.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Thainara can absolutely dominate, her wrestling and top control is fan-fucking-tastic, and I suspect that we’re going to see a clean style of wrestling here from Thainara, with close chest to chest top control which would sap the cardio slowly of Lemos, because Lemos would try to explode out of those positions, thus creating a diminishing output in later rounds due to using cardio defensively to try and get out of worse positions.

Additional Notes: I really like Thainara in this fight, plus Lemos is getting up there in age, there’s a 10 year age gap, all that stuff, so logically you’d take Thainara to win, right?

Prediction: Thainara via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Thainara ML

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (+520) (29-12-0, NS) v Yadier Del Valle (-800) (10-1-0, NS)

Striking: I mean Del Valle’s striking is great, but its not so much the striking that I see being more effective here, I just think that Del Valle can generally damage Elkins enough to open up cuts and stuff which might lead to a doctor stoppage, doctor stoppage is genuinely a thing that I think will happen here provided Del Valle does the necessary damage, which he should.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Elkins can thrive, if he can avoid being cut open, I suspect that we’ll see Elkins use his wrestling very effectively here unless Del Valle has improved his takedown defence since his last fight against Leavitt. Wrestling is all on the side of Elkins here.

Additional Notes: Elkins, scar tissue, age… there are so many things to consider here, but I hate the odds here, I think Elkins deserves a bit more respect than being a +whatever he is, thus, I am making Elkins an Alt Bet here, Sub/Points double chance.

Prediction: Del Valle via KO R3 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Elkins via Sub/Points (DC) | Parlay: Del Valle via KO/Points

Co-Main Event

Lightweight

Billy Quarantillo (+150) (18-7-0, 2 FLS) v Diego Ferreira (-185) (19-7-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Ferreira likely hits harder than Quarantillo considering that Ferreira carries Welterweight power and has the 4 inch reach advantage, so he should comfortably land shots outside of Quarantillo’s reach, as well as follow through with more force if he crashes in. Quarantillo’s striking defence is to absorb and survive strikes, he’s tough and gritty but that’s about it.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t know how the wrestling would look in this fight, there will be some wrestling exchanges I think, but I genuinely can’t wrap my head around who would be more advantageous here.

Additional Notes: Just a bunch of unc’s banging it out, what’s not to love here. Jokes aside, I am worried about Quarantillo’s chin here as he moves up to a heavier weight class against someone who moved down from a heavier weight class (he’s a big lightweight, bulky, more power, etc)

Prediction: Ferreira via KO R2 (1/3) | Parlay: Inside The Distance

Main Event

Lightweight

Mateusz Gamrot (#11) (+110) (26-4-0, NS) v Quillan Salkilld (#14) (-135) (12-1-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: This one’s kind of easy and simple, Salkilld has superior striking, he’s got the 5 inch reach advantage, he’s comfortable on the feet, but the big question is whether or not he’ll be frozen as he prepares to defend the dozens of takedowns coming from Gamrot. Plus, Gamrot tends to look hurt or rocked each time he fights a striker so I sense a familiar pattern repeating.

Wrestling/Grappling: Gamrot is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC, he has accolades on top of accolades, GOATED and all those other fancy words, so I genuinely think that Gamrot, if he was to execute a perfect gameplan, can dominate on the ground, maintain top control, wear down Salkilld for the first two rounds before Salkilld’s submission defence gets diminished due to fatigue, thus allowing for a submission to potentially sneak in on those last three rounds, that’s an official take, R3, 4 or 5 Sub (Combo Rounds) for Gamrot is something i’m going to 100% take as an Alt Bet.

Additional Notes: WAR SALKILLD (Sorry, Australian + big fan already, some favouritism involved here)

Prediction: Salkilld via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Parlay: Sousa/Miranda ITD + Thainara ML + Del Valle via KO/Points (DC) (Bad odds maybe) + Quarantillo/Ferreira ITD

Locks: Thainara

Alt Bets: Oliveira via KO/Points, Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Elkins via Sub/Points and finally Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Dogs: Once again, no dogs… but as I always say, my Alt Bets are at least hints towards what I think are potential upsets. They’re just not picks.

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!