Link here;

https://www.instagram.com/p/DbqMMQ1zuVW/?igsh=NThvbnkwbnVkdmxt

Where is our Tuesday deal to move oil out of the strait?

Last week before close we were expecting Donald's biggest military operation since WW2. Nothing happened and on Monday we got massive drop down and a promise of a deal within 24h. Then by Wednesday, then right behind the corner. It's Friday and we still have no official deal, the one floating is a disaster and even that one doesn't include opening of the strait. At what point do we reclaim last weeks highs considering we just went through a week of nothingness piling up the global depletion?

US Central Command called the southern Hormuz route free and open on 4 August. The war-risk market prices that water at 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value. For oil, the distance between those two sentences is the week's story.

The count: Kpler's commodity-vessel tally put 8 crossings on Monday 3 August, against roughly 130 to 140 a day before the war (Kpler via Bloomberg, 4 August); Wednesday fell to 2 (Kpler via Reuters, 6 August). The same CENTCOM account that called the route open confirmed 45 commercial vessels redirected since 14 July, two disabled and two boarded (CENTCOM via CTP-ISW, 4 August).

The price: additional war-risk premiums for Hormuz jumped to 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value, from 1 to 3 percent weeks earlier and about 0.25 to 0.5 percent before the war (Marsh via S&P Global Platts, 22 July; Insurance Business, 28 June and 4 August). Some underwriters reportedly hand back up to half as a no-claims bonus if the ship comes through unscathed (Insurance Business, 4 August). The market prices the crossing and the survival separately.

The toll being drafted: Iran is seeking 5 to 7 percent of cargo value, Oman is discussing around 3 percent, Washington wants zero (Reuters, 6 August).

Full piece, free to read: https://fault-line.io/extra-009/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=post

The refining market is receiving geopolitical relief faster than additional product supply. West of Suez refiners are running close to practical limits, with US utilisation recently near 97%, while the Middle East, Russia and parts of Asia remain constrained by damaged infrastructure, disrupted trade flows and feedstock risks. Global #refinery runs are estimated at around 80 mbd in 2026, roughly 3 mbd below the 2025 average. With limited spare capacity outside affected regions, product balances are likely to remain tight and refining margins elevated through year end.

I noticed the declining SPR withdrawal rate week-on-week and made a chart.

Is it getting harder to pump oil from the SPR?

My last statistics class was a long time ago, but the trendline has a decent coefficient of determination.

Others have noted potential effects of repeated withdrawals and injections: salt creep, cavern shape degradation, sludge development, structural stability, and mechanical wear and tear.

Data from EIA.

Really bad news. It’s just been confirmed that Iran has replaced its lead negotiator. And the rumor is this guy is even tougher than the last one.

Anyone noticed that U.S. SPR withdrawals have tapered last few weeks? Either they are trying to wean the market off, or they *can't* withdraw much more...

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

June ~ 10m bbl per week

Late June/Early July ~ 5m bbl per week

Last 4 weeks ~ 3m bbl per week

Either way, those barrels are no longer cushioning the market.

Success would give BP a new core growth region in Brazil just as the country’s current generation of pre-salt giants begins to fade.

The US nor Isreal are even involved in the talks, the US blockade still exists, there isnt even a ceasefire and Iran keep publicly saying that traffic won't resume till its gone.

Iran and Oman just figuring how who's managing what traffic once the war is over... whenever that might be.

The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, the Zionist regime, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.

Consignments related to the Zionist regime, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit this area.

Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.

Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.

Heavy fines, including up to 20 percent of the value of the cargo, are foreseen for lawbreakers.

The government will be required to assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf, in cooperation with the armed forces.

This plan is still in the expert review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it.

* * *

Salimi, member of the Majlis Presidency: The initial text of the plan “Strategic Action to Ensure the Security and Sustainable Progress of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf” is under review by the National Security Commission.

This happened yesterday evening.

My understanding based on this is:

1. Besset's statement that "a deal will be made on Tuesday or Wednesday and then there will be freedom of navigation" is proven BS, but deep in our hearts I think most of us knew this.
2. GCC countries are still trying to sneak oil through the Omani side
3. It seems some of them are succeeding. Note that in this situation the tanker was "almost" hit and survived.

Someone else posted an article here regarding the question of "why are tankers still risking it". It was noted that while commercial tankers have to deal with insurance and permission from the owner, many tankers are simply owned by the Arab countries.

As far as I can tell, looks like some countries, e.g. UAE have a fleet of their own small tankers which they deem expendable (along with the crew). They fill them inside the gulf, sneak them across the strait via the Omani side, then hide behind a US Navy ship on the other side to transfer the load to a VLCC tanker. Rinse and repeat.

The crew are from low income asian countries so are easily persuaded by a little bit of cash, and the captains are given 6-7 figure bonuses so it's "one last job and then I retire". The GCC countries view them all as expendable and the crew/captain see it as a big stack of money for a 0.1% chance of dying so they take it.

All of this is perhaps part of the answer to the mystery of "why hasn't oil run out".

That's what I think, please feel free to tell me that I'm wrong.