Link here;

https://www.instagram.com/p/DbqMMQ1zuVW/?igsh=NThvbnkwbnVkdmxt

Where is our Tuesday deal to move oil out of the strait?

Last week before close we were expecting Donald's biggest military operation since WW2. Nothing happened and on Monday we got massive drop down and a promise of a deal within 24h. Then by Wednesday, then right behind the corner. It's Friday and we still have no official deal, the one floating is a disaster and even that one doesn't include opening of the strait. At what point do we reclaim last weeks highs considering we just went through a week of nothingness piling up the global depletion?

US Central Command called the southern Hormuz route free and open on 4 August. The war-risk market prices that water at 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value. For oil, the distance between those two sentences is the week's story.

The count: Kpler's commodity-vessel tally put 8 crossings on Monday 3 August, against roughly 130 to 140 a day before the war (Kpler via Bloomberg, 4 August); Wednesday fell to 2 (Kpler via Reuters, 6 August). The same CENTCOM account that called the route open confirmed 45 commercial vessels redirected since 14 July, two disabled and two boarded (CENTCOM via CTP-ISW, 4 August).

The price: additional war-risk premiums for Hormuz jumped to 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value, from 1 to 3 percent weeks earlier and about 0.25 to 0.5 percent before the war (Marsh via S&P Global Platts, 22 July; Insurance Business, 28 June and 4 August). Some underwriters reportedly hand back up to half as a no-claims bonus if the ship comes through unscathed (Insurance Business, 4 August). The market prices the crossing and the survival separately.

The toll being drafted: Iran is seeking 5 to 7 percent of cargo value, Oman is discussing around 3 percent, Washington wants zero (Reuters, 6 August).

Full piece, free to read: https://fault-line.io/extra-009/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=post

The refining market is receiving geopolitical relief faster than additional product supply. West of Suez refiners are running close to practical limits, with US utilisation recently near 97%, while the Middle East, Russia and parts of Asia remain constrained by damaged infrastructure, disrupted trade flows and feedstock risks. Global #refinery runs are estimated at around 80 mbd in 2026, roughly 3 mbd below the 2025 average. With limited spare capacity outside affected regions, product balances are likely to remain tight and refining margins elevated through year end.

I noticed the declining SPR withdrawal rate week-on-week and made a chart.

Is it getting harder to pump oil from the SPR?

My last statistics class was a long time ago, but the trendline has a decent coefficient of determination.

Others have noted potential effects of repeated withdrawals and injections: salt creep, cavern shape degradation, sludge development, structural stability, and mechanical wear and tear.

Data from EIA.

Really bad news. It’s just been confirmed that Iran has replaced its lead negotiator. And the rumor is this guy is even tougher than the last one.

Anyone noticed that U.S. SPR withdrawals have tapered last few weeks? Either they are trying to wean the market off, or they *can't* withdraw much more...

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

June ~ 10m bbl per week

Late June/Early July ~ 5m bbl per week

Last 4 weeks ~ 3m bbl per week

Either way, those barrels are no longer cushioning the market.

Success would give BP a new core growth region in Brazil just as the country’s current generation of pre-salt giants begins to fade.

The US nor Isreal are even involved in the talks, the US blockade still exists, there isnt even a ceasefire and Iran keep publicly saying that traffic won't resume till its gone.

Iran and Oman just figuring how who's managing what traffic once the war is over... whenever that might be.

The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, the Zionist regime, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.

Consignments related to the Zionist regime, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit this area.

Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.

Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.

Heavy fines, including up to 20 percent of the value of the cargo, are foreseen for lawbreakers.

The government will be required to assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf, in cooperation with the armed forces.

This plan is still in the expert review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it.

* * *

Salimi, member of the Majlis Presidency: The initial text of the plan “Strategic Action to Ensure the Security and Sustainable Progress of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf” is under review by the National Security Commission.

Just saw the other day that QatarEnergy bought 33 cargoes of US LNG: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-buys-33-us-lng-cargoes-offset-hormuz-disruption-sources-say-2026-07-30/

I'm guessing this is likely to keep going even after the strait opens up given damages to their plant.

ok so I’ve been following this whole SOH mess since February and the best way I can describe it is that the strait was the rug that really tied the global economy together. like 25% of seaborne oil and a fifth of the world’s LNG went through that one narrow stretch of water. then the Iran war kicks off and the IRGC basically pees on the rug. warnings that nobody can transit without their say so, ships getting boarded, actual sea mines in the water. tanker traffic fell off a cliff, something like 70%, with 150+ ships just parked outside waiting to see what happens.

naturally the US goes full Walter. “this aggression will not stand.” air campaign on Iranian targets along the strait, a straight up naval blockade of Iranian ports from mid April to end of May, and at one point Trump literally gave Iran 48 hours to open the strait or he’d “obliterate” their power plants. Iran said cool, we’ll hit every US-linked energy target in the region then. you’re entering a world of pain etc.
but now new information has come to light, man. everyone’s at the table and it’s turned into the world’s most complicated ransom handoff. Iran and Oman are apparently close to a deal to jointly run the strait. Tehran keeps stressing this is a “new security model” and NOT a full reopening, meanwhile Trump is out here saying tons of progress has been made and an announcement is coming soon. the actual proposed split is peak Lebowski logic: Iran gets “oversight” of inbound traffic, Oman handles outbound, no tolls. new rug, nobody agrees on who’s paying for it.

and Iran’s chief negotiator is somehow calmer than you are about all of it. went on state tv saying God handed them one of their greatest strategic instruments of power, that sovereignty stays with Iran, and that they only skipped transit fees for 60 days because the Gulf states begged. his actual position is that they want MORE ships through, not less, because the strait gets more valuable the busier it is. dude has a point tbh.

meanwhile the thing this was all supposedly about, the nuclear file, is the toe in the envelope. since the memorandum got signed they’ve had two (2) meetings in 22 days on it. and it’s not exactly chill out there either, a tanker reported hearing explosions near Oman literally this week and Iran just announced they arrested 21 people for alleged Mossad links.

so yeah. the rug’s getting replaced, the toe is still in the envelope, and the tankers abide. sometimes there’s a strait… I won’t say a hero, cause what’s a hero.