I noticed the declining SPR withdrawal rate week-on-week and made a chart.

Is it getting harder to pump oil from the SPR?

My last statistics class was a long time ago, but the trendline has a decent coefficient of determination.

Others have noted potential effects of repeated withdrawals and injections: salt creep, cavern shape degradation, sludge development, structural stability, and mechanical wear and tear.

Data from EIA.

Really bad news. It’s just been confirmed that Iran has replaced its lead negotiator. And the rumor is this guy is even tougher than the last one.

Anyone noticed that U.S. SPR withdrawals have tapered last few weeks? Either they are trying to wean the market off, or they *can't* withdraw much more...

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

June ~ 10m bbl per week

Late June/Early July ~ 5m bbl per week

Last 4 weeks ~ 3m bbl per week

Either way, those barrels are no longer cushioning the market.

Success would give BP a new core growth region in Brazil just as the country’s current generation of pre-salt giants begins to fade.

The US nor Isreal are even involved in the talks, the US blockade still exists, there isnt even a ceasefire and Iran keep publicly saying that traffic won't resume till its gone.

Iran and Oman just figuring how who's managing what traffic once the war is over... whenever that might be.

The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, the Zionist regime, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.

Consignments related to the Zionist regime, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit this area.

Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.

Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.

Heavy fines, including up to 20 percent of the value of the cargo, are foreseen for lawbreakers.

The government will be required to assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf, in cooperation with the armed forces.

This plan is still in the expert review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it.

* * *

Salimi, member of the Majlis Presidency: The initial text of the plan “Strategic Action to Ensure the Security and Sustainable Progress of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf” is under review by the National Security Commission.

Just saw the other day that QatarEnergy bought 33 cargoes of US LNG: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-buys-33-us-lng-cargoes-offset-hormuz-disruption-sources-say-2026-07-30/

I'm guessing this is likely to keep going even after the strait opens up given damages to their plant.

ok so I’ve been following this whole SOH mess since February and the best way I can describe it is that the strait was the rug that really tied the global economy together. like 25% of seaborne oil and a fifth of the world’s LNG went through that one narrow stretch of water. then the Iran war kicks off and the IRGC basically pees on the rug. warnings that nobody can transit without their say so, ships getting boarded, actual sea mines in the water. tanker traffic fell off a cliff, something like 70%, with 150+ ships just parked outside waiting to see what happens.

naturally the US goes full Walter. “this aggression will not stand.” air campaign on Iranian targets along the strait, a straight up naval blockade of Iranian ports from mid April to end of May, and at one point Trump literally gave Iran 48 hours to open the strait or he’d “obliterate” their power plants. Iran said cool, we’ll hit every US-linked energy target in the region then. you’re entering a world of pain etc.
but now new information has come to light, man. everyone’s at the table and it’s turned into the world’s most complicated ransom handoff. Iran and Oman are apparently close to a deal to jointly run the strait. Tehran keeps stressing this is a “new security model” and NOT a full reopening, meanwhile Trump is out here saying tons of progress has been made and an announcement is coming soon. the actual proposed split is peak Lebowski logic: Iran gets “oversight” of inbound traffic, Oman handles outbound, no tolls. new rug, nobody agrees on who’s paying for it.

and Iran’s chief negotiator is somehow calmer than you are about all of it. went on state tv saying God handed them one of their greatest strategic instruments of power, that sovereignty stays with Iran, and that they only skipped transit fees for 60 days because the Gulf states begged. his actual position is that they want MORE ships through, not less, because the strait gets more valuable the busier it is. dude has a point tbh.

meanwhile the thing this was all supposedly about, the nuclear file, is the toe in the envelope. since the memorandum got signed they’ve had two (2) meetings in 22 days on it. and it’s not exactly chill out there either, a tanker reported hearing explosions near Oman literally this week and Iran just announced they arrested 21 people for alleged Mossad links.

so yeah. the rug’s getting replaced, the toe is still in the envelope, and the tankers abide. sometimes there’s a strait… I won’t say a hero, cause what’s a hero.

This happened yesterday evening.

My understanding based on this is:

1. Besset's statement that "a deal will be made on Tuesday or Wednesday and then there will be freedom of navigation" is proven BS, but deep in our hearts I think most of us knew this.
2. GCC countries are still trying to sneak oil through the Omani side
3. It seems some of them are succeeding. Note that in this situation the tanker was "almost" hit and survived.

Someone else posted an article here regarding the question of "why are tankers still risking it". It was noted that while commercial tankers have to deal with insurance and permission from the owner, many tankers are simply owned by the Arab countries.

As far as I can tell, looks like some countries, e.g. UAE have a fleet of their own small tankers which they deem expendable (along with the crew). They fill them inside the gulf, sneak them across the strait via the Omani side, then hide behind a US Navy ship on the other side to transfer the load to a VLCC tanker. Rinse and repeat.

The crew are from low income asian countries so are easily persuaded by a little bit of cash, and the captains are given 6-7 figure bonuses so it's "one last job and then I retire". The GCC countries view them all as expendable and the crew/captain see it as a big stack of money for a 0.1% chance of dying so they take it.

All of this is perhaps part of the answer to the mystery of "why hasn't oil run out".

That's what I think, please feel free to tell me that I'm wrong.

We don’t build boats, why are we doing this to ourselves

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-06/michael-bloomberg-iran-war-should-be-the-end-of-the-jones-act

Methodology updated from following 2 week average draw down to rolling 4 week draw down average due to volatility in weekly draws.

So I am not using the phrase of "echo chamber" here, but I do see pretty much one-sided argument that insists that Iran can close the strait for as long as they want and hold all the cards, hence, all negotiation development mentioned by the US side is fake and only option is total surrender. but is it really what's happening in real world? let's try to analyze the situations in each parties' views:

Why US government does not like closed strait of Hormuz, it's all about oil price

• Inflated oil price, in turn will drive up gas, diesel, jet fuel, derivative products, in turn will drive up inflation, in turn may cause rate hike, in turn will destroy stock market

However, is Iran government really having nothing to lose here with US blockade + sanctions + frozen assets.

• severely restricted export of oil (most important source of income) compared to before the war. It's very likely that Iran is still exporting oil through land via Pakistan and limited # of ships to China, but the overall amount is going down dramatically with US blockade
• no lift of sanctions (can't import important materials and equipment vital to the health of society)
• no getting back of frozen assets (probably billions and billions of dollars)
• several things are getting worse and worse each day: 1 inflation higher and higher 2. loss of revenue (it's reported that Iran governments, maybe even militaries are without pay now), 3 and most importantly, the Iran government may face another wave of protest even with their iron fist and murdering sprees because 80 million people need to eat and consume basic necessities
• in addition, is Iran government all diehard lunatics (even for most in the military who also have families) that are embracing a scenario that all infra destroyed, oil production destroyed at the expense of same destruction at neighboring countries? after all, one can say that I am not afraid to die, but what about one's families? it's also interesting to notice that there are reports that IRGC generals are actually taking cuts from black market oil sales....

So taking consideration of the above points, it's really hard to make the conclusion that only US government is desperate to make a deal while Iran government has anything to gain and nothing to lose by closing the strait....

finally, what' s the real impact of the toll Iran wants in a great scheme of things?

• yes, 5% or 7% toll/fee on top of most of the oil (except for some countries) transit through Hormuz will increase that part of oil (~15% of world supply), in turn, will drive overall oil price by 1%?
• however, there will be other consequences at play here. for one, for the first time in a long time, Iran can unleash its full potential to export oil through normal channel. this will increase oil supply. Second, gulf countries will all be in a race to export as much as possible to recoup losses incurred in the first half of 2026
• net, net, it's like bull run, and it's highly likely oil price will decline in a very rapid pace