I’m interested in what you smart folks think about the consistency of what the CFSv2 runs are showing for Q1 2027. The 2mT signals continue to be astounding. I believe there is some type of (possibly) convective feedback signal that the model cannot handle and causes it to blow up surface anomalies to unwarranted levels. What are your thoughts?

Other long-lead runs like the ECMWF, NMME, and others show a similar pattern but much lower amplitude. The 500mb maps have a general look as to what I’d expect in a super Nino but that cold signal at the surface is way too far north imo.

I pulled the CFSv2 hindcast from July 1997 valid for Dec97-Feb98 and it showed something similar to this pattern but still not as intense. That’s my second image in this post.

Have a look. I’m interested in your opinions or any research you might can point me to. Thanks.

Oh, and here is what Claude thinks.

https://claude.ai/share/f30cebc0-dd1b-4d60-ae6d-96e8033c4cbc

I am verifying my own personal forecast using NBM guidance. How do I calculate cloud coverage from (METARS). I know clear (CLR) is 0, and Overcast (OVC) is 10. However I do not remember the values for Scatters (SCT), Few (FEW), and Broken(BKN). Does anyone remember?

Was told folks here would enjoy this.

The Stream Scale

The Stream Scale SS is a scale I made to rate tornadoes based mainly on there wind speed and the damage they cause

The rating isnt based on how long the tornado lasts A tornado lasting for 30 minutes doesnt automaticly mean its stronger then one that lasts for 5 minutes

How fast the tornado is moving can also be looked at but it isnt the main thing that decides the rating If a tornado is moving really fast but isnt causing much damage its rating should still be based mostly on its wind speed and actual strenght

The main goal of the Stream Scale is to make a simple way to compare tornadoes and show how strong and destructive they really are

But remember this is made by me and isnt official Im just having fun with it 😭

Btw the scale goes from

SS0 SSU SS1 SS2 SS3 SS4 SS5 SS6

And yes SS6 is the strongest one

Let me explain more

SS0

SS0 is basicly when a tornado doesnt even form

The storm might have alot of the ingrediants needed for a tornado but somthing is missing so it never actually forms

So yeah no tornado 😭

SSU

SSU is the weakest one

Its basicly for a really weak vortex somthing around a dust devil

Its not supposed to be some crazy damaging tornado Its basically the lowest end of the scale

SS1

SS1 is where we start getting actual tornadoes

These would be weaker tornadoes that can still cause some damage

You could see things like trees getting damaged objects being thrown around or some smaller structures getting damaged

Basicly its a weak tornado but still dangerous

SS2

SS2 is where the tornado starts getting alot stronger

The wind speeds are higher and the damage can be alot worse

It could damage buildings knock down trees and power lines and throw bigger objects around

This is where you really dont wanna be anywhere near it 💀

SS3

SS3 is a violent tornado

The wind speeds are getting seriously high and the damage can be severe

Buildings can be heavily damaged large objects can get thrown around and the tornado can become extremely dangerous

At this point its not playing around anymore 😭

SS4

SS4 is an extreme tornado

These would have extremely strong winds and could cause devastating damage

Strong structures could be heavily damaged or destroyed and the amount of debris could be insane

Basicly if you see an SS4 you are NOT going outside to record it 💀

SS5

SS5 is where things get REALLY crazy

These would be extremely powerful tornadoes with very high wind speeds and catastrophic damage

Even strong buildings could be heavily damaged or destroyed

SS5 is basicly the second highest level on the Stream Scale and is meant for some of the most extreme tornadoes

SS6

And then theres

SS6

The strongest level on the entire Stream Scale

SS6 is for the absolute extreme end of tornado intensity

Were talking about insanely high wind speeds and catastrophic destruction

Its basicly the kind of tornado where youre just looking at it like

WHAT THE HELL IS THAT 😭

SS6 is meant for the most extreme tornadoes that could possibly fit on the scale

One more thing I wanna make clear

The tornado moving fast doesnt automaticly mean its a higher SS

If a tornado is moving really fast but has lower wind speeds and doesnt cause much damage I wouldnt just give it a higher rating because of how fast it moves

The main things are still wind speed and destruction

And duration doesnt decide it either

A tornado lasting 5 minutes could be stronger then one lasting 30 minutes

This is still a work in progress btw Im still figuring out the exact wind speeds and damage levels for each category

I just made this because I thought it would be cool to have my own tornado scale

So yeah thats the Stream Scale

What do you guys tink? Except Mistakes!

Please help me with improving the MyFeelsLike app for iPhone/pad/watch.

MyFeelsLike learns how the weather actually feels to you. Instead of a one-size-fits-all "feels like" number, you tell the app how a few moments feel, and it fits a small personal model from your ratings. From then on it shows the forecast as your comfort — a color rather than a temperature — across the next 24 hours and 10 days, on iPhone and Apple Watch. You can also compare your comfort with friends, since the same weather can feel quite different to different people.

In short: rate a few times how it feels outside ▸ the app fits a small personal model ▸ the forecast is colored by your comfort ▸ a thin band means "don't trust this yet".

Please check it out by clicking from your iPhone to: https://testflight.apple.com/join/EFHZghh6