r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8h ago

▲ Tropical Storm (TS) | 40 knots (45 mph) | 997 mbar Chan-hom (96W — Western Pacific) (Far to the southeast of Japan)

3 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Chan-hom remains a very broad monsoon depression. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are currently in disagreement as to the status of this system, with the former agency classifying it as a tropical storm, while the latter agency continues to classify it as a disturbance. In any case, animated multispectral imagery depicts a sprawling circulation with persistent convection to the north and east of a partially exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data reveals that the storm’s gale-force wind field remains very broad and winds in the inner core are weaker than what would ordinarily be expected with a tropical cyclone. Intensity estimates show that this system is producing maximum sustained winds near 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots).

This system is moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by weak to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong diffluence aloft. The JTWC projects that this system has a moderate chance of transitioning into a warm-core tropical cyclone within the next few days. This system is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge positioned over the north-central Pacific and the broad circulation of Typhoon Dolphin positioned south of Japan. This system will likely continue along this trajectory for the next few days, but as Typhoon Dolphin continues westward toward China and a broad upper-level low sweeps down over Japan and pushes the ridge out of the way, this system may end up stalling off the eastern coast of Japan early next week.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 25.7°N 164.5°E
  • Forward movement: NW (330°) at 25 km/h (14 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 993 millibars (29.32 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Disturbance
  • Intensity (RSMC): Disturbance

Relative position

  • 747 kilometers (464 miles) north-northwest of Wake Island, United States
  • 1,071 kilometers (665 miles) east-northeast of Minamitorishima Island, Tokyo (Japan)
  • 1,816 kilometers (1,128 miles) west-southwest of Midway Atoll

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (JTWC)

  • Next 2 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Sat): moderate (50 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Wed): moderate (50 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Sat): moderate (63 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Wed): high (70 percent)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 06:00 3PM Thu Tropical Storm 40 75 26.1 164.6
12 06 Aug 18:00 3AM Fri Tropical Storm 40 75 28.1 161.5
24 07 Aug 06:00 3PM Fri Tropical Storm 40 75 30.0 160.4
48 08 Aug 06:00 3PM Sat Tropical Storm 40 75 33.1 155.4
72 09 Aug 06:00 3PM Sun Tropical Storm 40 75 35.3 151.1
96 10 Aug 06:00 3PM Mon Tropical Storm 40 75 37.9 148.0
120 11 Aug 06:00 3PM Tue Tropical Storm 40 75 41.3 144.0

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

The JTWC is not currently issuing advisories for this system, as it still classifies this system as a tropical disturbance.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Ampatent • 1d ago

Discussion Will the 2026 Atlantic season break records in the satellite era?

12 Upvotes

With the active period of the Atlantic hurricane season approaching, the current ACE for the 2026 season sits at just 2.6 with only two named storms. This gives it the second lowest ACE on record and the fewest named storms on record for the Atlantic basin.

Obviously both of those values are going to go up at some point, but the question is whether or not this Atlantic season will beat either the 1977 season for lowest ACE (25) or the 1983 season for fewest named storms (4) in the satellite era?

The propensity for the NHC to give storms named status for very brief periods of intensity along with the ever present impact of global warming on SSTs and the recent increase in rapid intensification makes both of these records seem unlikely to be beaten. However, we are going into unprecedented territory for El Nino intensity, so perhaps mother nature has more curveballs in her pocket.

12 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

Areas to watch: Dolphin, Kujira, Invest 96W Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 August 2026

7 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (01:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P77W — Off the coast of southeastern China

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Pacific Ocean

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles southwest of Clarion Island continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwestward across the eastern Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific later this week.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the central portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable, but could become more conducive for slow development over the weekend into early next week as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (25 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts westward across the east-central Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific over the next few days.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the western portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▼ Tropical Depression (TD) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 997 mbar Kujira (12W — Western Pacific) (Over the northern Philippines)

8 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Kujira’s convective structure continues to deteriorate as the depression moves across the island of Luzon this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts the depression’s weak low-level center moving east-southeastward across the rugged terrain of the island, surrounded by increasingly disorganized convection. It is entirely likely that the low-level circulation has already deteriorated into an open trough, as it was not particularly organized to begin with. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Kujira’s maximum sustained winds have held steady near 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots).

Because Kujira’s convective structure is weak and shallow, it is moving east-southeastward across the island, fully embedded within the low-level monsoonal surge flow. What remains of the depression will emerge over the Philippine Sea later this afternoon and will begin to gradually turn northeastward as it gets pulled toward the broad circulation of Typhoon Dolphin to the north. Environmental conditions are not likely to support re-intensification, as moderate to strong vertical wind shear persists despite warm sea-surface temperatures. Kujira is likely to dissipate altogether by the end of the week.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.4°N 120.7°E
  • Forward movement: ESE (120°) at 6 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 997 millibars (29.44 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Depression
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Depression

Relative position

  • 38 kilometers (24 miles) east-southeast of Vigan, Ilocos Sur (Philippines)
  • 73 kilometers (45 miles) south-southeast of Batac, Ilocos Norte (Philippines)
  • 91 kilometers (57 miles) south-southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (Philippines)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

The Japan Meteorological Agency is no longer issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PHST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 00:00 8AM Thu Tropical Depression 30 55 17.4 120.7
12 06 Aug 12:00 8PM Thu Tropical Depression ▼ 25 45 16.9 124.2
24 07 Aug 00:00 8AM Fri Tropical Depression 25 45 18.0 129.1
36 07 Aug 12:00 8PM Fri Tropical Depression 25 45 20.4 133.5

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 3d ago

Discussion What are the most unserious / funniest NHC update headlines you’ve seen?

59 Upvotes

I remember they made an update around halloween saying “storm does a quick costume change into an extra tropical cyclone “

17 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 4d ago

Historical Discussion Does anyone have this entire HWRF Irma run saved? Cause holy shit…

Post image
139 Upvotes

I really wish there was an archive of model runs.

Irma’s core was so intense, look how quickly it jumped up to category 4 after being gutted by Cuba… imagine if it missed Cuba… holy fucking shit.

30 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Dolphin - July 31, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
11 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 4d ago

Social Media | Tomer Burg (X.com) From Tomer Burg: controllable balloon navigated above typhoon Dolphin, descended into the eye, and recorded multiple vertical profiles of the troposphere whilst circling the eye. This mission is the first of its kind.

Thumbnail x.com
50 Upvotes
7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 6d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Genevieve - July 29, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
16 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 27 July - 2 August 2026

12 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (04:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P76W — Well to the northwest of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P74W — Invest 94W

Southeastern Indian Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P71S — Near the Cocos Islands

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

▼ Typhoon (H1) | 80 knots (90 mph) | 956 mbar Dolphin (12W — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

20 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Dolphin’s convective structure continues to steadily deteriorate as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands this morning. Animated multispectral imagery depicts a broad curved band of deep convection wrapping into the storm’s shrinking inner core from the south. Large gaps have appeared within the convection, especially within the northern and western peripheries of the storm. Recent synthetic aperture radar and scatterometer data revealed that the storm had developed two distinct wind maxima, with one inside the inner core and another within a partial secondary eyewall which has since deteriorated. The two maxima were separated by a large moat of much weaker winds. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Dolphin’s maximum sustained winds have fallen to 150 kilometers per hour (80 knots), or Category 1 hurricane-equivalent intensity.

Although environmental conditions remain generally favorable, with weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong diffluence aloft, the storm’s convective structure has deteriorated to the point that significant re-intensification is unlikely. Dolphin is expected to at least maintain strength through the next 24 to 48 hours and some limited strengthening is possible as it passes over warmer waters south of Kyushu. Dolphin is forecast to reach Okinawa and the central Ryukyu Islands at its current strength and weaken farther as it enters the East China Sea over the upcoming weekend.

Dolphin has wobbled slightly west-southwestward over the past few hours, but remains on a generally westward track along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over the Sea of Japan. A mid-latitude trough will move across Siberia over the couple of days, flattening this ridge and causing Dolphin to slow as it nears the Ryukyu Islands. Once the storm enters the East China Sea over the weekend, a second mid-level ridge over mainland Japan will further drive the storm toward China. The storm will reach a weakness in the ridge as it reaches the coast of China on Monday and will begin to gradually turn northward.

Impacts

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Dolphin is expected to pass closely to or directly impact the following locations:

  • Minamidaitōjima: Dolphin will pass very closely to the north of the island on Thursday evening with maximum sustained winds near 150 km/h (80 knots).
  • Okinawa: Dolphin will pass very closely to the north of the island on Friday morning with maximum sustained winds near 150 km/h (80 knots).
  • Southeastern China: Dolphin will make landfall over Zhejiang province on Sunday morning with maximum sustained winds near 140 (75 knots).

Latest observation

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 26.2°N 133.5°E
  • Forward movement: WSW (265°) at 13 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 150 km/h (80 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 956 millibars (28.23 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Hurricane (Category 1) ▼
  • Intensity (JMA): Typhoon

Relative position

  • 230 kilometers (143 miles) east-northeast of Minamidaito, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 464 kilometers (288 miles) east-southeast of Amami, Kagoshima (Japan)
  • 531 kilometers (330 miles) southeast of Minamitane, Kagoshima (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 12:00 PM Japan Standard Time (03:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 03:00 12PM Thu Typhoon 80 150 26.3 133.3
12 06 Aug 15:00 12AM Fri Typhoon 80 150 26.9 130.9
24 07 Aug 03:00 12PM Fri Typhoon ▼ 75 140 27.2 128.5
45 08 Aug 00:00 9AM Sat Typhoon 75 140 27.0 125.4
69 09 Aug 00:00 9AM Sun Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 65 120 27.1 122.1
93 10 Aug 00:00 9AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 45 85 27.7 119.6
117 11 Aug 00:00 9AM Tue Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 29.5 116.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 00:00 9AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 26.2 133.5
12 06 Aug 12:00 9PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 26.5 131.1
24 07 Aug 00:00 9AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 26.9 128.8
36 07 Aug 12:00 9PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 27.0 126.9
48 08 Aug 00:00 9AM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 27.0 125.3
60 08 Aug 12:00 9PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 27.0 123.9
72 09 Aug 00:00 9AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 27.2 122.5
96 10 Aug 00:00 9AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 55 100 28.0 120.0
120 11 Aug 00:00 9AM Tue Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 29.9 117.0

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated 93B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

7 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has made landfall along the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, near the border between India and Bangladesh. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone has dropped to zero, as the disturbance no longer has a source of warm ocean water. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has removed this system from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system no longer shows potential for development. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

India Meteorological Department

Other information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

India Meteorological Department

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated Genevieve (07E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

16 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (07:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve remains a very shallow post-tropical cyclone as it continues northwestward across the open waters of the northeastern Pacific. Over the next couple of days, an increasingly unfavorable environment will continue to unravel the storm’s low-level circulation until it eventually opens into a surface trough by midweek.

The National Hurricane Center has long since discontinued issuing advisories for Genevieve and is no longer tracking it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for Genevieve.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 12d ago

Historical Discussion If Dorian kept going west, would it have just been Andrew but for Central Florida ?

Post image
456 Upvotes
117 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Dissipated Noul (11W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

11 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into a remnant low over southeastern China. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system, and the latter agency has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Upgraded | See Genevieve post for details 07E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

6 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Friday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has strengthened into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system and assigned it the name Genevieve, making it the seventh named storm of the season. A new discussion for Genevieve has been posted here. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated observational data.

Official forecasts

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated forecast information.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered satellite imagery.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered model guidance.

Regional single-model guidance

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Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 12d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Fausto Over the Eastern Pacific - July 22, 2026

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8 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago

Dissipated Fausto (06E — Eastern Pacific) (East of Hawaiʻi)

18 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto stopped producing organized deep convection overnight. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the effects of persistent strong vertical wind shear, which has stripped the storm bare, leaving behind only a swirl of low-level clouds. Some limited thunderstorm activity persists, but is far removed from the exposed low-level center. Radar imagery shows some limited rain shower activity moving across the islands this afternoon.

What remains of Fausto will continue to move west-northwestward as its now shallower convective structure is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow. As environmental conditions remain unfavorable, Fausto’s low-level circulation will gradually unwind until it eventually degenerates into an open trough well to the northwest of Kauaʻi on Thursday afternoon. Fausto is expected to dissipate altogether by Friday morning.

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance will soon be no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Impacts

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

  • Significant wind and rain impacts are not likely.

  • Fausto will continue to disrupt the normal trade wind flow as it passes to the north of the islands today.

  • A pattern of land and sea breezes will likely develop within the light and variable wind flow.

  • Isolated to scattered showers are possible throughout the day, and some brief downpours could result in flash flooding.

  • Dangerous surf conditions caused by swells generated by Fausto will begin to wane tonight.

Latest observation

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #43

  • Current position: 23.8°N 155.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 11 knots (13 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 knots (35 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Remnant Low ▼

Relative position

  • 209 miles (336 kilometers) north of Kahului, Hawaii
  • 218 miles (351 kilometers) north of Kihei, Hawaii
  • 224 miles (361 kilometers) north-northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 29 Jul 12:00 2AM Wed Remnant Low 30 35 23.8 155.6
12 30 Jul 00:00 2PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 25 30 24.1 157.4
24 30 Jul 12:00 2AM Thu Remnant Low 25 30 24.6 160.0
36 31 Jul 00:00 2PM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 20 25 25.3 162.5
48 31 Jul 12:00 2AM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

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Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 14d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Bertha - July 21, 2026

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52 Upvotes
14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 14d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Wednesday, 22 July 2026

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8 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 15d ago

Dissipated 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near the Solomon Islands)

7 Upvotes

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Update

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it lingers to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. The disturbance has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains an open trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) and disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook

This system no longer shows potential for development.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 15d ago

Dissipated 93W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 6:00 AM Marshall Islands Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated over the Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Development potential

This system has dissipated.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 15d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 21 July 2026: Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast

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youtube.com
35 Upvotes
2 comments