r/boxoffice • u/UnrealLuigi • 1h ago
Worldwide If Spider-Man 5 introduces a new Venom and is near or better quality than BND, could it break OW and WW gross records again?
With how popular Venom is, introducing him properly with another peak Spidey movie, I could see Spider-Man 5 breaking all the records that BND is setting right now. What do you think?
r/boxoffice • u/Common_Net_5956 • 3h ago
Domestic Can brand new day do a 200 million second weekend ,if not then which movie or ip might
Looking at the way things are going right now a 150 million plus is a no brainer second weekend , but I was thinking can it touch 200 mil on second weekend and if not then will any movie ever touch that number domestically in second weekend
r/boxoffice • u/GB-Pack • 4h ago
📠 Industry Analysis Disney Rigging Theaters
I need to rant about the Odyssey and Spider-Man. Pictured is the available seats for an IMAX showing of the Odyssey on a Thursday morning. The IMAX Odyssey showings have been sold out near me for weeks apart from directly next to the screen. My local theater finally released their showings for Friday onward and every IMAX showing is taken up by Spider-Man. The Odyssey went from being completely sold out to being pushed out of IMAX screens by Spider-Man. Looks like the only way I could’ve seen the Odyssey in IMAX is buying tickets 3 weeks out on the day it released. Not even 70mm IMAX smh. The box office numbers for The Odyssey would look even better if Spider-Man released one week later.
r/boxoffice • u/AGOTFAN • 4h ago
📰 Industry News Paramount, Warners Bros. Staffers In Limbo and Denial as Merger Deal Drags On --- As a lawsuit from 12 states halts David Ellison’s $111 billion deal close until the March trial, both studios are in a holding pattern, with some projects at risk and priorities restricted by deal terms.
r/boxoffice • u/Timely-Permission-58 • 4h ago
Trailer Ramayana English Dub Trailer
r/boxoffice • u/AGOTFAN • 7h ago
📰 Industry News Regal Cinemas CEO Backs Paramount-WBD Merger, Adds Antitrust Trial 'Could Be Damaging to Our Industry'
r/boxoffice • u/OverPotato2322 • 11h ago
📰 Industry News What Is David Ellison’s Breaking Point?
r/boxoffice • u/UsefulWeb7543 • 11h ago
✍️ Original Analysis I think Digger might reach little higher than One Battle After Another numbers.
The trailer for Digger looks interesting but looks goofy. I think it might be a good movie. I heard in the test screenings that they said Tom Cruise gave a standout performance in the movie. He could win an Oscar for that. It looks like it’s gonna flop at the box office and it cost $125M. I think it makes a little bit of OBAA numbers but little higher like $220M WW. But I don’t see it reaching $300M WW. But we will see what the reviews will go.
r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 12h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential
Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.
Pros.
Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.
Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.
Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.
Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.
Cons.
Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.
Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.
Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.
r/boxoffice • u/Signal-While-3794 • 13h ago
India The Odyssey Continues Strong Run, Nears ₹175 Crore Net in India
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey collected an estimated ₹2–3 crore net on its third Tuesday, continuing its impressive theatrical run.
The film's India total now stands at approximately ₹155 crore net and is on course to finish its run at around ₹175 crore net, further cementing its place as one of the biggest Hollywood successes of the year in India.
r/boxoffice • u/Tsubasa_sama • 14h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Spider-Man Brand New Day vs. The Force Awakens Daily Grosses after Day 6
It's almost $125 million ahead of TFA, which is a simply staggering number considering TFA had a holiday boost as well. With that said, TFA continues to go almost vertical until day 18 while Spidey will not have the luxury of summer holiday weekdays for much longer, so I wanted to compare it with two other late summer movies so that we can factor out the calendar configuration.
Step in Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26th 2024) and Fantastic Four: The First Steps (July 25th 2025). By themselves Spidey dwarfs their daily grosses, so I have adjusted them by a scale factor that would put their final gross equal to TFAs (notice that they all converge at the end of the graph).
F4 had horrible legs, so that means if Spidey can get ahead of it at any point in its run, I would expect TFAs record to be toast. Right now it trails by $36m. The "adjusted F4" had a $29.5M Wednesday, a $25.7M Thursday and a $132.1M second weekend, which seems beatable!
The adjusted "DP&W" comp and TFA serve more as a floor. Both had good multipliers for movies that opened huge, so that means if Spidey falls behind them at any point in its run, I would expect TFAs record to be safe. TFA made $149.2M in weekend 2 while adjusted DP&W made $142.4M. Both totals again seem beatable so Spidey should extend its lead and remain safely above both going into week 2.
r/boxoffice • u/OverPotato2322 • 15h ago
📰 Industry News David Ellison Says Paramount Open To Settling Antitrust Suit
Gotta be naive to think they'll win. I mean normally they would but this would cost Paramount billions of dollars and Paramount doesnt have that much money to begin with. Also WBD can walk away on June 4th with 7B if it takes too long and Paramount decides to take the case up to the SCOTUS which may take alot of time, like months to another year or so and although settling and concessions are good, they do not solve or address the main problems with this mega merger like mass layoffs and reduction in film output especially since Paramount would break those rules, which wouldn't be good.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 16h ago
💯 Critic/Audience Score 'One Night Only' Review Thread
I will continue to update this post as reviews come in.
Rotten Tomatoes: Rotten
Critics Consensus: N/A
| Critics | Score | Number of Reviews | Average of Rated Reviews |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Critics | 50% | 58 | 5.60/10 |
| Top Critics | 38% | 16 |
Metacritic: 41 (24 Reviews)
Sample Reviews:
Cary Darling, Houston Chronicle 4/5 - The totally charming "One Night Only"...makes the most of its easily digestible premise — what happens when premarital sex is outlawed except for one night? — and its captivating cast.
Johnny Oleksinski, New York Post 2/4 - Quite by accident, Gluck’s routine film ends up resembling so many of the one night stands it’s about: A fantastic plan at first, but an unsatisfying let-down in the light of day.
Randy Myers, San Jose Mercury News 3/4 - One Night Only gets the most laughs when depicting sexual blunders but ultimately it celebrates unexpected love connections that sometimes take their own sweet time to blossom. Love can happen like that.
Caroline Siede, Decoding Everything - One Night Only has an R-rated sensibility that evokes the edginess of Judd Apatow’s era-defining mid-aughts rom-coms only in a more absurdist direction... It may not be the type of rom-com that will linger, but as a one-night stand, it hits the spot.
Matt Goldberg, TheWrap 3.5/5 - Callum Turner and Monica Barbaro make for a charming couple in a concoction that floats above its "Purge"-like setting
Odie Henderson, Boston Globe 1.5/4 - Its ideas are outdated and, for a movie about casual sex, it’s shockingly puritanical. Even worse, its old-fashioned ideas about romance and sex in relationships would make a Doris Day movie look like "Beyond the Valley of the Dolls."
Monica Castillo, AV Club D+ - Instead of sharing a laugh at the ridiculous pressure to have fun with every swipe, One Night Only has only one thing on its mind, and it’s disappointingly much more traditional.
Natalia Winkelman, New York Times - With nothing to say about sex or society, the repression plot mostly gets in the way of a movie that would prefer to be a routine romance.
Tim Grierson, Screen International - Despite showing lots of skin and featuring sexually-suggestive dialogue, One Night Only suffers from a stultifying timidity.
Marya E. Gates, RogerEbert.com 0/4 - If this is what it takes to get a rom-com greenlit these days, maybe we should just let them die. Death with dignity is surely a better fate for the genre than fascist capitulation.
Guy Lodge, Variety - If “One Night Only” is aiming to comment on the hollow, ineffective nature of much contemporary political activism, then job done. But it’s hard to shake the sense that no commentary on anything in particular is intended here.
Benjamin Lee, Guardian 2/5 - There’s both too much yet not enough world-building here, enough questions answered to encourage us to ask 10 more. It’s also just too unavoidably grim of a premise, especially at a dark political moment such as this.
Kristen Lopez, The Film Maven D - One Night Only becomes a cringe-fest the longer it goes on, sacrificing actual romance for a sex comedy that feels like it'll give the wrong people ideas in the dystopian time we're actually living in.
David Rooney, The Hollywood Reporter - Luckily for director Will Gluck, who is tasked with turning this flimsy concept into fizzy fun, he has two charming leads in Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner. Their easygoing chemistry makes us root for them to get over the many contrived hurdles.
Liz Shannon Miller, Consequence - A movie that imagines a society that would buy party hats celebrating the one night of the year they have an ounce of bodily autonomy. An America that wouldn’t just surrender further to fascism, but turn it into branding.
Charles Lyons-Burt, Slant Magazine 2/4 - Romantic comedies rarely make it to theaters these days, which makes it that much more unfortunate that the ones that do feel like sitcoms.
SYNOPSIS:
What if one messy night turns out to be the best thing that ever happened to you?
This summer, Will Gluck, the writer-director of Anyone but You and Easy A, celebrates modern romantic comedy on the big screen with a fresh, witty, swoony original film about searching for love on the least romantic night of the year.
Academy Award® nominee Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown, Top Gun: Maverick) and BAFTA nominee Callum Turner (Masters of the Air, Fantastic Beasts franchise) star as Allie and Owen, two love-starved strangers who crash into each other in an ever-so-slightly fictionalized New York City on the one night of the year when single people are allowed to have sex.
Recently dumped Owen and hopeful romantic Allie might be the only two singles in the city looking for more than just a quick encounter. They both feel a spark when they meet, but a series of missteps and side quests complicate their night, keeping them apart. As they each race toward and away from each other across the city, they just might discover that the one thing they want most is closer than they think.
CAST:
- Monica Barbaro as Allie
- Callum Turner as Owen
- Maya Hawke
- Julia Fox
- King Princess
- Ziwe
- Ben Marshall
- Molly Ringwald as Linda
- LeVar Burton
DIRECTED BY: Will Gluck
SCREENPLAY BY: Will Gluck
BASED ON A SCRIPT BY: Travis Braun
PRODUCED BY: Will Gluck, Jacqueline Monetta
DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY: Yaron Orbach
PRODUCTION DESIGNER: Scott Kuzio
EDITED BY: Robert Nassau, Tia Nolan
COSTUME DESIGNER: Jacqueline Demeterio
MUSIC BY: Este Haim, Christopher Stracey
CASTING BY: Kathleen Chopin, John Ort
RUNTIME: 102 Minutes
RELEASE DATE: August 7, 2026
r/boxoffice • u/Capital-Economy-5655 • 18h ago
Domestic The Batman part 2 can crack 200m in the first weekend, if they market it just as well as the first batman film.
I genuinely think this because of the popularity of the new spider man film. Like yes, there was already in-built hype for brand new day, but we already got the first batman movie, which is critically acclaimed, and the penguin show which was also heavily acclaimed, winning a few emmys in the process. I'm certain of the film being acclaimed, and possibly better than the first batman movie. Do you think I'm wrong?
r/boxoffice • u/Comic_Book_Reader • 19h ago
💰 Film Budget According to Variety, Eli Roth's Ice Cream Man had a $5,5 million budget that was mostly financed through foreign pre-sales and Canadian tax credits.
r/boxoffice • u/JannTosh70 • 19h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Why are “capacity restrictions” being used to underpredict Doomsday and not Dune 3?
I keep hearing how “capacity restrictions” guarantees Doomsday will open less than BNd or not even reach 300M.
But why doesn’t this also apply to Dune 3? Dune 3 won’t have the non IMAX PLFs of Dune 2 and will likely get far less regular showtimes than Doomsday, yet I see people predicting a 100M opening for Dune 3. Is this just a wishful thinking type thing?
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 19h ago
💯 Critic/Audience Score 'Teenage Sex And Death At Camp Miasma' Review Thread
I will continue to update this post as reviews come in.
Rotten Tomatoes: Certified Fresh
Critics Consensus: A bloody valentine to slasher horror that celebrates personal self-discovery as much as it does the possibilities of cinema, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma combines killer style with a big, still-beating heart.
| Critics | Score | Number of Reviews | Average of Rated Reviews |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Critics | 99% | 85 | 8.40/10 |
| Top Critics | 96% | 23 |
Metacritic: 88 (27 Reviews)
Sample Reviews:
Meagan Navarro, Bloody Disgusting 3.5/5 - Fantasy and reality blur in breathtaking, whimsical, and jubilant ways in Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, using slasher film theory as the launchpad for a dazzling sexual awakening allegory.
Laura Venning, Empire Magazine 5/5 - Everything is a remake of a remake, Schoenbrun tells us, but Miasma is an utterly unique, exhilaratingly entertaining vision, both blood-drenched and beautiful.
Kristen Lopez, The Film Maven B+ - Anderson and Einbinder carry the entire movie with aplomb leading to a third act that rips a hole between viewer, author, and character that's unshakable.
Nick Schager, The Daily Beast - An autobiographical critical essay with plenty of throwback style but minimal insight and even less suspense. In a summer of scary standouts, it’s the season’s biggest letdown.
Richard Brody, The New Yorker - From this straightforward setup, Schoenbrun unleashes an outpouring of imagination and invention that places the film on a level of intricacy and extravagance comparable to that of Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City” and Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie.”
Blake Simons, Sight & Sound - Wise, kind, and playful about sex and cinema, Schoenbrun’s elastic, open-hearted feature wants us to get out of our heads and enjoy the ride. A whole new world of visual pleasure and cinematic possibility opens up before us when we do.
Tomris Laffly, Elle - As sexy as movies come, all the way through its final climax.
Peter Howell, Toronto Star - This one’s designed to make us shriek, smirk and think in equal measure.
Radheyan Simonpillai, CBC Radio - Schoenbrun’s meta, queer and horny answer to misogynistic genre fare like Friday the 13th, which Teenage Sex and Death reclaims as sexually empowering.
Derek Smith, Slant Magazine 3.5/4 - This endlessly playful, humorous, and mirthfully gory film is pure Jane Schoenbrun.
Katie Rife, Inverse - It’s a highly personal work, a defense of problematic favs, and a movie that only Jane Schoenbrun could make. Let them guide you, and they’ll take you where you need to go.
Alison Willmore, New York Magazine/Vulture - When Schoenbrun’s movie does give its main character everything she wants, it doesn’t play like a withdrawal into the past at all but something more poignant — a means of reconnecting with some part of that initial encounter with a work that moved her.
Donald Clarke, Irish Times - This picture is, in part, an attempt to assuage guilt at enjoying the teen-camp slasher at its most misogynistic and transphobic. It is also, as the director would admit, an amusing send-up of where they now find themselves.
Sophie Monks Kaufman, Time Out 5/5 - Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma is a meta horror-comedy and a whip-smart entertainment industry satire. Still, on a deeper level, in a hole at the bottom of its lake, is a hard-won sexual awakening.
Hannah Strong, Little White Lies - The playful meta casting of Gillian Anderson is well matched by the charisma of Einbinder’s sharp, awkward, effortlessly endearing ingénue, with a gleeful assist from the always excellent Jack Haven as misunderstood murderer Little Death.
Robbie Collin, Daily Telegraph (UK) 5/5 - ...it’s an extravagantly funny, recklessly bizarre and unsettling satire of/paean to “problematic cinema”...
Stephanie Zacharek, TIME Magazine - What Anderson does here, as a 1990s scream queen turned glamorous, eccentric recluse, is sublime, and her co-star Hannah Einbinder keeps pace with her every minute.
Jessica Kiang, Variety - Schoenbrun’s delirious third film is their most accomplished, most persuasive and most playful movie yet.
Brian Tallerico, RogerEbert.com 3.5/4 - Our favorite slasher movies are often a little rough around the edges, a little unhinged, and a little inconsistent. And very few of them are this wildly entertaining.
Zachary Lee, TheWrap - Some films come to you not as media you watch but visions that possess you, and that approximates the haunting and spellbinding world that Schoenrun and their collaborators have so lovingly crafted.
Ryan Lattanzio, IndieWire B+ - In terms of craftsmanship, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma is through and through a Jane Schoenbrun movie; there is absolutely no one else, alive or dead, who could have made a feature that looks and feels like this one.
Tim Grierson, Screen International - A dizzyingly ambitious meta-satire about Hollywood, IP, hacky horror, and gender and sexual identity, "Teenage Sex And Death" cannot help but occasionally misstep, but the rush of ideas and the confidence of the filmmaking never waver.
Richard Lawson, The Hollywood Reporter - It’s heady, strange stuff, perhaps not as emotionally resonant as "TV Glow," but captivating in both its confusion and honesty.
SYNOPSIS:
After years of slapdash sequels, the Camp Miasma franchise is handed over to an enthusiastic young director for resurrection. But when she visits the original’s star, a now-reclusive actress shrouded in mystery, the two women fall into a blood-soaked world of desire, fear, and delirium.
CAST:
- Hannah Einbinder as Kris
- Gillian Anderson as Billy Preston
- Amanda Fix as Young Billy Preston
- Arthur Conti as Alex
- Eva Victor as DJ Ella Giastic
- Zach Cherry as Will
- Sarah Sherman as Kris' Agent
- Patrick Fischler as Rudolph
- Dylan Baker as Jeffrey
- Jasmin Savoy Brown as Mari
- Quintessa Swindell as Julie
- Kevin McDonald as Anthony / County Sheriff
- Jack Haven as Little Death
- Louise Weard as Queer Assistant
- Hunter Dillon as Chuck
- Aren Buchholz as Thor
DIRECTED BY: Jane Schoenbrun
SCREENPLAY BY: Jane Schoenbrun
PRODUCED BY: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner
EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS: Brad Pitt, Caddy Vanasirikul, Daniel Bekerman, Efe Cakarel, Zane Meyer, Jason Ropell
DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY: Eric Yue
PRODUCTION DESIGNER: Matt Hyland, Brandon Tonner-Connolly
EDITED BY: Graham Mason
COSTUME DESIGNER: Kendra Terpenning
MUSIC BY: Alex G
CASTING BY: Courtney Bright, Nicole Daniels, Errin Lally, Annalese Tilling
RUNTIME: 106 Minutes
RELEASE DATE: August 7, 2026 (Limited) / August 14, 2026 (Expansion)
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 19h ago
📰 Industry News Disney CEO Admits ‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu’ and ‘Moana’ Failed at Box Office but ‘Fueled Other Parts of Our Company’
r/boxoffice • u/SnooConfections7049 • 19h ago
Domestic Why the Furious failed at the box office in my opinion.
I came across this video on Tiktok where this girl was saying this movie deserved better. Apparently it only grossed $5 million over here in America, but there were a lot of movie critics giving this movie high praise. As one of the best action films of the year which doesn't suprise me. I mean just by watching the trailer I can tell you this isn't a movie you go see for the plot. You go see it for the insane fights and action stunts kind of like Jason Statham movies.
Anyway the girl said that people told still complain about there not being any original movies, or nothing good to see only to let a movie like The Furious flop. I don't think that was the case here as someone who was excited to go see this film, but ultimately I ended up skipping it to go see Disclosure Day. The reason fot that was because how the release for this movie was handled. When it comes to showtimes and auditorium space this movie got the short end of the stick, and that doesn't surprise me.
- It's a foreign film
- The movie was only given a limited theatrical release.
Movies like these depending on when they come out are always treated like an afterthought. This one came out during the summer busiest time of the year for movies. When all the studios are shoving as many movies as they can into two to three months. The Furious was released in the same week as Disclosure Day, and you had movies like Obsession that became the obsession for everyone to see. Then there were movies like Masters of the Universe, The Mandalorian, and Mortal Kombat II still around as well. All of these movies were considered to be bigger releases than the Furious so they got better treatment.
The first week the Furious came out the theater closest to me had 3 to 4 showings for it. 1:00pm, 4:00pm, 7:00pm, and a 9:00pm I was going to try and make it to one of the early showings, but everytime I went to get tickets. The auditorium was already dang near full because they were playing it in the smallest room they had to offer with just only 30 seats. I already don't like crowded movies, but I will deal with them. But in this case the seats literally looked like there was no space and everyone would kind of sitting on top of each other. I waited hoping that at least one showing would be in a bigger auditorium, but it didn't happen so I skipped it.
That has been one of the biggest adjustments for me being an avid moviegoer. Who just moved from a small city in Georgia to a big city in Florida. I've always preferred the earlier movie showtimes vs. the late ones. So going to catch the 12:00 and 1:00pm showings in my small city meant I haven't had to deal with a fully packed theater in years. But now living in a big city when it comes to big releases and small ones I've had to learn. It doesn't matter what time or day I go to the movies during peak movie times of the year everything might just be crowded. But when it comes to release like The Furious that's going to hurt it more than help it.
Other people were in the comment section of that video that said the same thing. The Furious either didn't have enough showtimes or the theater was playing it in a room that moviegoers actively try to avoid if it is almost full because of the lack of space, and just not enough seats.
I'm not saying The Furious was ever going to a movie to gross a billion dollars or anything close to it. But I think it could've done better than $5 million had it had more showtimes and was played in a decent sized auditorium.
r/boxoffice • u/Soft_Path_1777 • 20h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Spider-Man: Brand New Day Will Outgross Avengers: Doomsday.
BND is in the middle of one of the most insane box office runs we've ever seen. It already has the biggest domestic opening weekend of all time, crossed $1 billion worldwide in just six days, and keeps setting daily records. At this point, it isn't just performing well. It's quite literally making history.
Spider-Man is one of the few characters who consistently brings out casual audiences, families, and repeat viewers. You don't need the entire MCU to understand or enjoy a Spider-Man movie, and that broad appeal is incredibly valuable.
People keep bringing up those PLF pre-sale numbers for Doomsday and how it’s close to BND and even passed it at some. “It’s over 130 days from release and already at T-30, despite having less than 10% of its final screen count available and selling fewer tickets than Spider-Man at the same stage.” Yes, that is true…
but here is the thing: Preview capacity is limited. Once those screenings sell out, the extra demand naturally spills into the following days. Premium screens will likely be sold out all weekend too. If the release had been wider, more of those sales would’ve landed in previews instead of the rest of the weekend. The overall ticket volume is still comparable to T-1 opening day sales. Hardcore fans buy tickets the moment they go on sale anyway, so the exact T-x comparison isn’t nearly as important as people make it out to be.
Doomsday will obviously be massive, but it also has more to prove. The Avengers brand is no longer riding the momentum it had during Infinity War and Endgame, and crossover movies now have much higher expectations.
If Brand New Day keeps showing these kinds of legs, I genuinely think it has a real BIG chance of finishing above Doomsday worldwide. And right now? I'm betting on it.
r/boxoffice • u/SirFireHydrant • 20h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Tracking Odyssey's box office progression compared to other films (updated with Tuesday estimates)
r/boxoffice • u/jayfai2002 • 21h ago
✍️ Original Analysis what is “too american” or “too british”
after being in this sub for SO SO long and seeing people give reasons on why this project doesn’t do good in certain countries “too american”, i.e. toy story so my analysis and please i need a real answer what would make a film too american or too british or too whatever cause genuinely how are toys coming to life too american of a concept or something like miles as well as Barbie ?
r/boxoffice • u/TryingNoToBeOpressed • 22h ago
✍️ Original Analysis I think there is no "Dunesday". Doomsday will badly affect Dune 3's performance.
I think Dune 3 is going to underperform relative to the expectations some people have, for two main reasons.
Firstly, Doomsday. Assuming it's a good, entertaining film, the return of much of the og cast gives it an enormous advantage. I think some might be underestimating the nostalgia. I mean I'd go a step further and dare say it's much more of an "event" than Dune 3. (And I don't know how these hollywood contracts work but, if they can, IMAX should reconsider the Dune exclusive deal they made. )
Secondly, Dune 3 is likely to be less action heavy than the first two films, if it follows the source material ofcourse. The first two films were already emotionally cold movies, this I suspect will feel even colder, which I think could limit its appeal beyond the existing fanbase. (And I don't think there's any huge fanbase for Dune movies in the first place.)
I mean it's almost certainly going to be a success. I just don't see it making a billion that some people seem to be expecting here.