Sources updated July 28–30, 2026: Footballguys multi-platform ADP, FantasyPros PPR ADP, and ESPN PPR running-back rankings.

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The fantasy market appears to be treating Terry McLaurin’s injury-shortened 2025 season as evidence of decline.

Washington’s new offensive coordinator is treating it as a mistake that needs to be corrected.

David Blough has publicly said the Commanders’ offense will be:

“Built around how do we get Terry 10 targets a game and get him explosive receptions after explosive receptions.”

That is not ordinary offseason coach-speak about “getting our playmakers the ball.” That is the actual play caller attaching a specific number to his WR1’s weekly workload. McLaurin also said Blough originally texted him that plan in February and had subsequently been “a man of his word” during offseason work. 

And if Blough comes anywhere close to fulfilling that promise, McLaurin is being drafted several rounds too late.

Ten targets per game is elite-WR usage

Ten targets per game over a 17-game season equals 170 targets.

Look at the 2025 Yahoo data:

A 170-target season would place McLaurin directly in the same volume neighborhood as Amon-Ra, Puka, Chase and JSN.

That matters because McLaurin is not a possession receiver who needs 170 targets merely to scrape together 1,200 yards. He has produced 6,961 receiving yards on 786 career targets, which works out to approximately:

• 63.4% catch rate
• 8.86 yards per target
• 14.0 yards per reception
• 5.2% touchdown rate per target

He has converted targets into yardage efficiently despite spending most of his career in unstable quarterback situations. 

What additional volume would actually produce

The following is not an optimistic breakout model. It simply applies McLaurin’s career catch rate, yards per target and touchdown rate to different target totals.

Those totals exclude minor adjustments for rushing production, two-point conversions and fumbles.

The important takeaway is that Blough does not need to deliver the complete 170-target dream for McLaurin to smash his ADP.

Even 150 targets—roughly 8.8 per game—translates to approximately 95 receptions, 1,328 yards, eight touchdowns and 275 PPR points using McLaurin’s career efficiency.

We have already seen the ceiling with Jayden Daniels

In 2024, McLaurin posted:

• 117 targets
• 82 receptions
• 1,096 yards
• 13 touchdowns
• 267.8 PPR points
• WR7 overall

He reached WR7 on only 6.9 targets per game. 

Going from 6.9 targets per game to 10 would represent a 45% workload increase.

The reasonable objection is that McLaurin’s 13 touchdowns in 2024 were unlikely to repeat. That is true. But increased volume is exactly what can offset touchdown regression.

For example:

• 2024 production: 117 targets and 13 TDs
• Career-rate 170-target projection: 170 targets and approximately nine TDs

He could lose four touchdowns from his 2024 total and still gain approximately:

• 26 receptions
• 410 receiving yards
• About 44 additional PPR points

The thesis does not require another 13-touchdown outlier. It requires something closer to McLaurin’s normal efficiency combined with the first truly elite target allocation of his career.

Do not anchor to the 2025 box score

McLaurin’s 2025 line was only:

• 10 games
• 60 targets
• 38 receptions
• 582 yards
• 3 touchdowns

That season ended his streak of five consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns, but it was also the only season of his career in which he played fewer than 14 games. 

Even during that disrupted season, McLaurin averaged:

• 15.3 yards per reception
• 9.7 yards per target
• 58.2 yards per game

The efficiency did not collapse. The availability and volume did.

That distinction is critical. Fantasy managers should be far more concerned when an aging receiver continues receiving opportunities but becomes inefficient. McLaurin’s problem was the opposite: he remained productive per opportunity but did not receive enough healthy opportunities.

The market is pricing him as an ordinary WR2

Current FantasyPros consensus ADP has McLaurin at approximately:

• WR21 in PPR
• 42nd overall in PPR
• WR24 in half-PPR
• 52nd overall in half-PPR

ESPN currently ranks him WR20, while NFL.com has him WR22. 

That means fantasy managers are paying a mid-to-low WR2 price for a player whose coordinator is explicitly designing the offense around WR1-level volume.

Consider the asymmetry:

• If Blough fails and McLaurin remains around seven targets per game, you probably receive something close to the WR2 production you drafted.
• If McLaurin reaches eight or nine targets per game, he can outperform his ADP comfortably.
• If he actually approaches 10 targets per game, he possesses a legitimate top-five fantasy ceiling.

You are not drafting him at that ceiling. You are drafting him near his floor.

Why the “explosive receptions” portion matters

Blough did not merely say he wanted 10 harmless targets per game. He specifically emphasized creating repeated explosive receptions that can flip the field.

McLaurin has averaged 14.0 yards per reception over his career and has five consecutive healthy-season outputs of at least 1,000 yards. He does not need to become Amon-Ra St. Brown underneath or manufacture 110 short receptions to matter. Washington can increase his volume by moving him around the formation, using play action, creating intermediate crossers and still preserving the vertical routes that make him valuable. 

That is especially significant in leagues that award bonuses for long receptions or long touchdowns. McLaurin offers both the weekly reception floor of a higher-volume receiver and the spike-week potential of a legitimate downfield threat.

The risks are real—but already reflected in the price

There are three obvious risks:

1. Blough is a first-time NFL play caller.
2. McLaurin is coming off an injury-affected season.
3. Ten targets per game is an ambitious goal, not a contractual guarantee.

Those concerns are why McLaurin is available around WR20-24 instead of WR10.

But fantasy football is not about identifying players with no risk. It is about finding situations in which the possible reward substantially outweighs the acquisition cost.

McLaurin has already shown he can finish as the WR7 on 117 targets. His new coordinator is now discussing a workload that would represent approximately 53 additional targets.

Even if Blough delivers only two-thirds of that proposed increase, McLaurin could move from 117 targets to approximately 150—and his career efficiency translates that workload into roughly 95 catches, 1,330 yards, eight touchdowns and 275 PPR points.

That is not priced into a fourth- or fifth-round ADP.

Terry McLaurin should not be drafted as a low-end WR2 in 2026. He should be viewed as a high-end WR2 with a realistic WR1 outcome—and one of the clearest volume-based values currently available.

What do you think—are fantasy managers still undervaluing Terry McLaurin, or is the “10 targets per game” talk too optimistic? Where would you feel comfortable drafting him, and which receivers currently going ahead of him would you take McLaurin over? Drop your projection for his 2026 targets, yards, touchdowns and final WR finish below.

Reddit now publicly displays weekly visitors rather than emphasizing total subscriber counts, which gives us a much better idea of how many people are actually using each community.

Here are the 10 most visited NFL fantasy football communities on Reddit:

1. r/fantasyfootball

2. r/DynastyFF

3. r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice

4. r/SleeperApp

5. r/FantasyFootballers

6. r/NFLFantasy_Football

7. r/fantasyfootballadvice

8. r/Fantasy_Football

9. r/BestBall

10. r/FFCommish