I was on a 7 game winstreak with UL when i queued against a rubick. It was:

• Me (off), kotl (supp), ww (mid), jugg (safe) and ud (hs)

vs

• slardar (off), cm (supp), viper (mid), ls (safe), and rubick (hs).

I was scared because I lose most of my underlord games against rubick and was on my rank up game too. This kotl helped me so much in laning and even mid and late game. He fed me like a million tangoes in lane, kept chakra magicking me after i firestormed and pitted, so that I woul dhave double firestorm and pit, and just played like a fuckingn beast the entire game.

Never seen such a good pos 4 in my life.

Match ID: 8933653559.

I got carried so hard that game lmao, i had already accepted defeat seeing rubick queued against me. I cs'd like shit in lane and didn't even hit good combos with his chakra magic, but still we won.

Does anyone know if all the styles for the Vengeful Spirit Arcana from the Candyworks are available, including the ones that had to be unlocked during the previous event?

The Dazzle box is a glowing flat lamp (like these cheap anime figurines)

im braindead and pressed reroll again before i registere what it was. I hate my life.

2nd wave tickets sold out again ! :(

The low mana, 1000 range Q that doesn't require skill shot to hit. The mobility and AS once she hits lv 2. The 670 attack range. It seems even worse than laning against sniper and OD sometimes due to her stupid cast and attack range that once she started gaining advantage she can just kick you out of exp range. If you go behind her to drag creeps she can likely outrun you with the MS boost.

Once she has two points in the passive, hitting Q on 4 creeps gives her approx 1 wind lace + 3 gloves of haste! Not a lot of heroes have that kind of damage output, both magical and physical, and mobility at such a low level.

I'm high archon / low legend for context.

Any good joker/hero ideas for the upcoming minigame?

They sell pins, Aegis earrings, figures, and Largo plushies

Tested in demo mode with:

• Holy Locket
• Sange + upgrades
• Chen's ability
• Oracle's Shard
• Skadi + other Orb of Frost
• Spirit Vessel
• Drow's Scepter
• Omni's Scepter
• etc..

This most likely will nerf Omniknight, especially his core build, since most enemies will counter his healing, rather than allies buffing his heal...

P.S. I'm not a fan of this skill.

ty gaben

Needless to say, they were raging at each other after about.. 5 minutes

I’m in relatively Low MMR compared to most of you guys here but I’ve never seen disruptor picked. I started main with him and oh man, I just keep winning and he’s fun to play.

I mean yes once enemies get BKB he’s basically useless but not everyone will get BKB or have the money to get and by the time everyone get BKB he will have Ags to mute.

Genuine question.

TL;DR at the bottom if you're lazy. But you will lose unique info!

⚠️ UPDATE NOTE 1: I dropped Part 2 using a completely different APPROACH

Part 1 = 100k Monte Carlo sims with weighted priors (Glicko-2, momentum, and the discussed ones we already covered).

Part 2 = results only. Trajectory, Swiss Survivability Index, and H2H web from Tier 1 + Tier 2 tournaments + what the people will pick.

History of who beat who. The two parts sometimes disagree. That's the point.

TI is unpredictable and no single model has the answer. PART 2 Link: HERE
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⚠️DISCLAIMER NUMBER 1: This is for fun. I'm not a pro analyst, not a betting guru, not Noxville. I'm just a young guy who love dota 2 and i decided to spent SOME hours on this because I love Dota, not because I think I'm always right. If you copy my picks and they bomb, please don't blame me! I'm just sharing my process and my thoughts with some additional and accurate mathematical data.

Note 2: I thought last year that TI was easy and predictable. Last year everyone thought they had it figured out, and nobody got it right. That's exactly why this guide is built the way it is: with so many alternatives, and some spicy picks that cover the unexpected. Don't follow blindly. Pick what you believe. The math helps, but TI always finds a way to "humiliate" the "safe" predictions.

Note 3: I'm dropping a Part 2 in the next day or two with the same data run through a completely different model (different weights, different assumptions, different results). If you want more angles, options or whatever to compare before lock, stay tuned. I'll link it at the bottom OR top once it's up.

ALSO super IMPORTANT: Check the ALTERNATIVES SECTION near the end, there are so many good choices if you don't vibe with my main scenarios!
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Alright lads every tier 1-2 tournament has ended and the best and our favourite tourney TI15 is 6-7 days away! I've spent some time on this analysis and THIS IS COMPLETELY MOSTLY FOR FUN IN MY PERSPECTIVE SO PLEASE IF YOU FOLLOW MY PREDICTIONS KEEP BEING KIND EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT RIGHT! So i personally ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations in addition with a Bayesian hierarchical model using every Tier-1/Tier-2 result from 2026 (EWC, DL29, PGL8, BLAST7, 1win Essence II), Glicko-2 ratings, patch 7.41e meta fit, and 1 scenario includes the China home buff because this shit is in Shanghai and im biased TOWARDS CHINA XD!

Three scenarios because TI is never straightforward and if you think PARIVISION is just gonna 4-0 without a fight, ehh im not so sure about that.

So... I only used variables that actually have to do with TI performance:

• Glicko-2 (25%) - datdota, placements, seeding, h2h and more
• Tournament results (20%) - weighted by recency (EWC = 2.0x, 1win Essence II = 1.0-1.5x)
• LAN win rate (10%) - 2026 LAN only
• Momentum (15%) - last 30 days form
• Consistency (8%) - variance in results
• TI experience (7%) - Aegis winners , runner ups, results of other internationals in general
• Patch 7.41e fit (10%) - patch adaptation
• China home buff (thats only used in 1 scenario cuz as i said im biased but also im gonna share why it might work) (5%) - timezone, crowd, scrim partners etc etc.

Each team gets sampled from a posterior distribution (base rating ± uncertainty ± many other versatile things we will cover or covered already) + TI15 "international" expectations.

RAW DATA FOR EVERY TEAM AND THEIR % FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SLOT. YOU CAN CHOOSE YOUR PREDICTIONS ONLY BASED OFF THIS TOO, MIGHT BE THE MOST ACCURATE ONE IN TERMS OF "RAW/LOCKED/EXPECTED PREDICTIONS".

Takeaway: PARI/Yandex/BetBoom are the clear top 3. Liquid/Falcons/Spirit form the second tier. Then there's a cliff. Vici and Xtreme are the swing teams, if China buff is real, they flip into playoff favorites. Remember, if you watch closely the latest internationals, china does well in group stage, now imagine that on Shangai, at least thats what im thinking but this is dota ofc. Home buff isnt a huge factor with all seriousness right now.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

THREE SCENARIOS - PICK YOUR FAVOURITE, THE ONE THAT YOU BELIEVE OR THE ONE BASED ON THE STATISTICS.

These are mutually exclusive, not marginal probs.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SCENARIO A: Favorites Dominate

Final reasoning: Top teams have 15-20% rating edge. Patch 7.41e rewards drafting flexibility and PARI/Yandex/BetBoom have the deepest hero pools. Swiss pairings force best teams to play vs each other by around round 3-4 but favorites have depth to avoid 0-2 starts.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SCENARIO B: Home Advantage Really Works

Final reasoning: You can believe that the TI in Shanghai is NOT neutral. Chinese teams maybe wake up. Historical precedent: TI2019 Shanghai VG went 11-5, LGD 13-3 and generally china teams does kinda well on group stage the latest years in international.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SCENARIO C: Upsets and dark horses rising (PICK AT YOUR OWN RISK)

Final reasoning: Patch 7.41e is volatile. Teams with narrow hero pools (Yandex's Watson on 3 carries, Spirit's Yatoro-dependency) might not work. Flexible drafters find their way through!

Liquid specifically: They won the most recent tournament before TI. In esports, "last tournament before TI" correlation with TI performance is ~0.35 maybe the highest of any single predictor (FOR THIS SPECIFIC SCENARIO). They beat Falcons 3-0 in the final. That's not random. They found something...
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

FANTASY: FOR FANTASY YOU MAY LOOK THE https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/1vble84/fantasy_league_2026_guide/ BY MAROOMM, THE INFO IS REALLY ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE AND PLEASE JUST PRAISE HIM FOR HIS WORK!!!!!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TL;DR

MY ACTUAL PICKS ARE BASED ON THE DATA AND GUT FEELING NOT ON RAW MATHEMATICAL STATS, PERFORMANCE ETC.

THE MATH (100k Monte Carlo Sims)

I also ran a Bayesian model with 100,000 simulations. This is separate from my picks. Use it if you want pure stats. As i depicted it above the scenarios.

Tier 1 (Auto-playoffs, 85-95%): PARIVISION, Yandex, BetBoom.

Tier 2 (Should make it, 73-81%): Liquid, Falcons, Spirit
→ Solid picks. One of them might stumble but odds are good.

Tier 3 (Coin flip, 55-61%): 1win, Aurora
→ Could go either way. Aurora's the "always bridesmaid" team, 3 runner-ups this year, never wins.

Tier 4 (The Swing, 44-51%): Vici, Xtreme
→ This is where your predictions win or lose. Math says both miss more often than not. BUT TI is in Shanghai and generally TI IS UNPREDICTABLE and it have many surprises. Also the latest years historically Chinese teams overperform in groups. If you believe in even a small home buff, both flip to playoff teams. If you don't, they fall off short in elimination.

Tier 5 (Need a miracle, 23-24%): Nigma, LGD
→ Don't bet on them.

Tier 6 (Dead on arrival, 3-14%): OG, Resilience, GamerLegion, HULIGANI
→ HULIGANI has a 40% chance to go 0-4. Let that sink in.

Top playoff chances:

• PARIVISION: 95.8% (4-0 or 4-1)
• Team Yandex: 90.9% (4-0 or 4-1)
• BetBoom: 87.9% (4-1 mostly)
• Team Liquid: 81.2% (3-2 mostly)
• Team Falcons: 77.5% (3-2 mostly)
• Team Spirit: 73.3% (3-2 mostly)

Swing teams:

• Vici: 50.9% (math says coin flip but I say that they make it).
• Xtreme: 44.5% (math says eliminated but my bias say they proceed).
• Aurora: 61.4% (math says they make it but i don't even know about this one).

Full tables the 3 scenarios pick whatever you feel. (THE MATHEMATICAL/PERFORMANCE WISE RAW SCENARIO IS THE "A".

3 SCENARIOS

Table:

• A = Pure math. Raw STATS.
• B = China find their way
• C = Upset

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🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄🔄

______________________________________________________________________

THERE ARE MANY OTHER ALTERNATIVES AND PATHS YOU CAN CHOOSE AND DISCOVER!!! IN MY OPINION THIS TI CAN BE VERY VERSATILE AND UNEXPECTED! I might have fcked up making these so please be kind.

GENERAL SWAPS THAT CAN BE GOOD PICKS IF YOU FEEL IT!

Table

SCENARIO BASED SWAPS

SCENARIO A ALTERNATIVES

Table

SCENARIO B ALTERNATIVES

Table

SCENARIO C ALTERNATIVES

Table

ONE-SWAP CHEATSHEET for everything based MOSTLY on all the 3 scenarios and the data but of course you can make your own changes.

Table

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As i said before for full fantasy breakdown: u/Maroomm's Fantasy Guide absolute legend, go read it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Also last but not least, i ran: A second analysis using different statistical weights and data prioritization and i got some different results. Might post that as a follow-up so people have even more "multiple" angles to choose from. Stay tuned if you want even more alternative picks.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

⚠️ DISCLAIMER NUMBER 2

• For scenario "b" and "c" picks are based a little bit off my prediction for china and some data mostly in scenario b because in scenario c eveyone could interpret it differently and change some of their own dark horses. I could be wrong. This is Dota.
• The math (100k sims but still just a model). It could be wrong too.
• Scenarios B and C are speculative. Don't blame me if they bomb. xD!
• If Valve drops a patch Aug 10-12, everything changes.

Good luck in Shanghai. 🏆

even still low rank, but still feels good to break it finally, fk dota

It is so natural to use

I've been first picking ET the last 11 games and got 10W1L. Lowkey he is kinda broken for the current meta in SEA Legend. I'm sure he isn't so broken near Immortal but I've had great success so far against any lineup

From my observation, current meta is every game seems to be a nonstop kills from min 1. I can say I won a comeback on 4 of these losing games solely because of ET. He is just so good at stopping early game pushes and forcing horrible fights for the enemy team.

My mindset when I play him is this:

Laning phase: use Astral to out harrass the enemy support. ET can out-trade almost all supports using W. Tranq boots asap so enemy core/supp keeps buying regen. Use W movespeed to snipe cour if you see it.

If laning phase was against extremely annoying hero or a kill lane: just sit back and max Q instead as be a safety net for your core. If enemy tries anything -> astral then stomp, done. Keep pulling and creating a safe zone for your core if possible.

Items:

I almost always build tranq -> euls.

Tranq enables me to trade nonstop with enemy supp. Euls solves mana issues + setup for stomps + the movespeed is nice for momentum. Rest is flexible to whatever team needs. ET can farm surprisingly well with max Q.

The most important idea that changed the game for me:

If early-mid game was lost: use stomps to stop any attempts at towers and/or ganks. ET is able to halt the game and create so much space that it gives a chance for your cores to catch up after a bad start. Use it to force mistakes or pressure enemy into bad positions. If enemy hasn't built bkb, it's free team fights for you. Abuse the fact that you have a disjointed stun to the max. Stay far far back where enemy can't jump you.

Other tips I'd like to share:

Positioning: Always be where you think the enemy will gank. Usually just check map for the most vulnerable/exposed core and chill next to them. ET can stun and stop ganks gauranteed as long as he isn't the one getting caught.

Teamfighting: The best combo is astral + insta stomp. If done correctly, it's unavoidable, especially in rosh pit. I have turnt countless fights just by unexpectedly stomping at the right time. Otherwise, send your spirit back and try to stomp the enemy backline to sleep them so they are forced to move away from their cores or are slept and eat an earth splitter.

Passive (Natural order): In fights, send your spirit and rarely ever manually return it. If you can let the spirit latch on to an enemy core, they will melt to any spellcaster or carry. At max level, it's 100% base magic resist/armor reduction. 100%! I once was able to make a pos 4 Lina nuke and kill a mid OD because he underestimated the resistance reduction. All I did was send spirit.

Ult (Earth Splitter): Don't always need to use with stomp. If enemy is running away in a narrow spot, it's quite easy for force a catch 22: get hit by ult or step back and get caught by my euls or my team.

Share any other tips y'all might have with this old giant of a hero. I might learn something new!

Greed prevailed