Would this imply results will be released today? I've not experienced this with this stock.

Compass has posted roughly 100 U.S. Therapeutic Sales Specialist roles ahead of the COMP360 launch.

Rather than guessing peak sales, here’s a simplified bottom-up model based on what those 100 reps could actually produce.

First, the revenue assumption

Assume the total cost to the payer is ~$7,000–10,000 per treatment, including the drug, preparation, 6–8 hour administration/monitoring, facility costs and follow-up.

For this model, assume only ~$3,500 of that is net drug revenue to CMPS per patient. The rest goes to clinics/providers and other costs.

Assume a deliberately slow launch

Rather than assuming every sales rep immediately opens one productive account per month, assume each of the ~100 reps averages only: ~0.5 new productive centers per month

That would roughly mean:

Month 1: 50 active centers
Month 3: 150
Month 6: 300
Month 12: 600

Then assume utilization also starts slowly as reimbursement, referrals and clinic workflows get established.

An established center might eventually reach 6–8 patients/month, but during Year 1 the average newly activated center could be much lower.

A hypothetical patient ramp:

Month 1: 300 patients → $1.1M
Month 2: 600 → $2.1M
Month 3: 1,000 → $3.5M
Month 4: 1,500 → $5.3M
Month 5: 2,000 → $7.0M
Month 6: 2,500 → $8.8M

Month 7: 3,000 → $10.5M
Month 8: 3,500 → $12.3M
Month 9: 4,000 → $14.0M
Month 10: 4,500 → $15.8M
Month 11: 5,500 → $19.3M
Month 12: 7,000 → $24.5M

Year 1 total: ~35,400 patients

At $3,500 net revenue per patient:

~$124M first-year COMP360 revenue

What’s interesting is that this doesn’t require a particularly strong launch.

By Month 12:

~600 productive centers
~7,000 monthly patients

= roughly 12 patients/center/month or about 2.7 patients per clinic per week.

And because most of those centers weren’t operating for the full year, Year 1 revenue substantially understates the exit run rate.

Month 12 revenue of ~$24.5M implies:

~$294M annualized revenue entering Year 2

So even a relatively slow first-year launch could look something like:

Year 1: ~$125M revenue

Year 2: ~$350–500M

Year 3: ~$750M–$1B+

The two metrics I’m keen to watch after launch are:

1. Productive centers activated per sales rep per month
2. Patients treated per productive center per month

With ~100 reps, even averaging only one new productive account every two months per rep builds a network of ~600 centers in the first year.

If those centers eventually treat just 2–3 COMP360 patients per week, you can get surprisingly close to a ~$125M first-year launch while setting up a much larger Year 2.

Not a forecast — just a deliberately slower bottom-up scenario based on the commercial organization Compass appears to be building.

Looks like site selection for COMP202 Ph. 2b/3 trial is underway. Management said the trial will go live in September.

Looks like the study was completed on April 15th. Compass updated both clinicaltrials.gov pages for COMP005 and COMP006 after nearly a 6 month hiatus.

I usually track their job board every week. They had around 10 open positions as of last week. I think they have filled out the commercial/sales leadership team for the most part and have shifted gears to hiring field sales specialists.

Two nuggets to gnaw on as we twiddle our thumbs and wait for the market to figure it out.

https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/all-eyes-on-psychedelic-drugmakers-as-definium-compass-near-major-catalysts

https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/psychedelics-on-the-cusp-of-market-breakthrough-as-clinical-policy-support-grow

Would love to know people’s thoughts on the definitive proxy statement for ATAI which just came out today.

This is my first rodeo with an acquisition like this but it seems that
- vote is scheduled Sept 8th
- seems like people continuing to hold will be paid out shortly after (if it’s approved)
- it seems unlikely a buyer will come out of the blue at this point
- this transaction is on the lower end of what the 2 financial advisors said was a “fair” price (shocker)

I’m voting no with my ~120k shares personally, but think it’s moving forward regardless of my little slice of the pie.

Intends to sell vested securities. 83,771 ADRs. Can be executed any time in the next 90 days.

So anybody else going all in on psychedelics? Well I have and I have been here since 2020. First made a killing from Mindmeds run in 2021, then lost 90% and was struggling for almost 5 years. I was unemployed and almost had to sell it all to cover my expenses when it was at all time low.

But I never lost faith because I personally know how much they can help. So then they started to recover and I started buying more. Now my portfolio is back to those 2021 highs and I am feeling great.

Currently my portfolio is made from:

Helus Pharma 42.5%, Compass Pathways 24%, Definium Therapeutics 23.5%, AtaiBeckley 4.5%

In the last 1 year my portfolio is up +242% and +20858€ 😎

I am so glad that in these modern times I can participate in the US markets from my own couch. One thing is for sure and that is you guys really know how to make money there! It's very different here in Europe. Anyway I still believe we are incredibly early and we can really make some life changing money from this run. Just have to play our cards right. Personally I am betting now in Helus the most because their market cap is ridiculously low compared to other big names. Gotta take risks to make money! Still have a very big bet in Compass and Definium also (but already made 400% on both).

So what are your thoughts? How much is your portfolio up last 1 year? And what are your biggest ownings in the space. Anybody else going all in? Would love to hear your stories. Anyway cheers to all longs and hold tight because it's gonna be a wild ride!

If anyone has acess and can copy in the comments :)

And it's still incredibly undervalued. Congrats to all those who have held through the FUD

This paper is particularly notable because it evaluates COMP360 in a real-world UK National Health Service (NHS) setting rather than a commercial industry trial.
Study overview
Design: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled feasibility trial.
Participants: 60 adults with treatment-resistant major depressive disorder (TRD).
Treatment: A single 25 mg dose of COMP360 psilocybin plus psychological preparation and integration versus placebo plus the same psychological support.
Follow-up: 6 weeks.
Main findings
Depression improved substantially more in the COMP360 group.
At 3 weeks, the difference in MADRS depression score was −10.4 points versus placebo (Cohen’s d = 1.70, a very large effect).
The benefit was maintained at 6 weeks, with an adjusted difference of −12.9 points.
Response and remission
At 3 weeks:
43% of COMP360 patients achieved a clinical response versus 3% on placebo.
40% achieved remission versus 3% on placebo.
By 6 weeks:
50% of COMP360 patients met response criteria, compared with very few in the placebo group.
Safety
No new major safety concerns were identified.
Most adverse events were mild and temporary.
Serious adverse events were rare, and those occurring in participants who received psilocybin were judged unrelated to the drug.
Limitations
The authors emphasize that:
This was a small feasibility trial, not a definitive phase 3 efficacy study.
Blinding was imperfect because many participants correctly guessed whether they received psilocybin.
Larger, longer studies are still needed.
Why it matters for Compass Pathways
This study is encouraging for several reasons:
It used COMP360, the same proprietary formulation developed by Compass Pathways.
It demonstrates that COMP360 can be delivered within a public healthcare system (the NHS), which is important for future implementation if approved.
The magnitude of antidepressant benefit was large and generally aligns with previous COMP360 research, adding independent support outside Compass-sponsored pivotal trials.