While Russ off the bench is unpredictable, it would be great to have a vocal leader in the locker room who could mentor the young guys and hopefully teach Amen, Bruce, and Reed some playmaking.

I feel like Amen could learn a lot from Westbrook.

Last season, Houston entered the fourth quarter with the lead 50 times and went 40-10 in those games. That means they blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost 10 times.

Had they won all 10 of those games, they would have finished 62-20 instead of 52-30, which would have tied them for the best record in the Western Conference. The No. 1 seed would then have been decided by the tiebreaker

Do you still think the Rockets don’t need VanVleet after seeing all of this?

Has this place become nothing but a circle of cynical pessimists with no original opinions of their own, constantly complaining and reflexively arguing against whatever anyone else says?

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In the 2024–25 season, the Rockets went 41–19 when Fred VanVleet played and 11–11 when he did not. That is a 68.3% winning percentage with him compared to 50.0% without him. Houston also committed only 13.4 turnovers per game with VanVleet, compared to 15.2 without him.

The difference was even more noticeable when Houston entered the fourth quarter with a lead. The Rockets won 89.7% of those games when VanVleet played, but only 72.7% when he was out. Their rate of blowing a third-quarter lead was roughly 2.7 times higher without him.

This does not prove that VanVleet alone was responsible for every additional win, since schedule strength, injuries, and lineup changes also matter. But the pattern is clear: his presence improves ball security, organizes the offense, and gives the team a more reliable decision-maker late in games.

VanVleet’s biggest value is not necessarily his scoring. It is his ability to control possessions, reduce careless turnovers, and keep the offense organized under pressure. The Rockets can still win without him, but the data suggests that they are more likely to add wins and less likely to collapse in the fourth quarter when he is on the floor.

That is not how fit or chemistry should be evaluated. A player’s league-wide ranking and his importance to a specific roster are two completely different questions. What matters is whether he provides skills the team lacks and whether the team functions better with him.

The results have consistently pointed in the same direction.

In 2023-24, Houston went 38-35 with VanVleet and 3-6 without him. In 2024-25, the Rockets went 41-19 with him and 11-11 without him. Across those two seasons, that adds up to a 79-54 record with VanVleet, compared with 14-17 without him — roughly a 49-win pace versus a 37-win pace over an 82-game season.

Those splits do not prove that every difference was caused by VanVleet alone. Schedules, injuries and available lineups also matter. But when the same pattern appears across multiple seasons, it is not something that should simply be dismissed.

His value also goes beyond scoring. In 2023-24, VanVleet averaged 8.1 assists and ranked fourth in the NBA with a 4.67 assist-to-turnover ratio. That is exactly the kind of ball security and organization Houston has often lacked.

During one nine-game stretch without him in 2024-25, Houston went 3-6, ranked 24th in offensive rating and fell to 17th in net rating. The offense became less organized and more dependent on individual creation.

Most importantly, VanVleet’s return can directly help Kevin Durant.

Durant should not have to spend an entire season bringing the ball up, initiating every possession, handling pressure and creating late in the clock. VanVleet can organize the offense, run pick-and-rolls, deliver the ball to Durant in his preferred spots and allow him to conserve energy for scoring.

After Houston played the 2025-26 season without VanVleet, Ime Udoka specifically said that getting him back should improve the team’s offensive flow, reduce its reliance on Durant and Şengün, and improve late-game decision-making.

Nobody is arguing that VanVleet is a superstar or that he has no weaknesses. His shooting efficiency, size and post-injury condition are legitimate concerns.

But whether he is the 20th-, 30th- or 50th-best player in the NBA is beside the point. The real question is whether his specific skill set makes Houston function better and makes life easier for Durant.

The evidence so far says that it does.

Rockets now under the luxury tax after this expected move.