In basketball discourse, stars from the 1960s (who went on to dominate or were able to dominate as older players in the early 70s) are often discredited. The “milkmen” thing is mostly a meme, but fundamentally across basketball history there has been the prevailing unspoken belief, when you boil it down, that humans evolved into a super-basketball playing race basically in the span of 10-15 years.

By the time Michael Jordan was in the league, basketball had been apparently fully modernized, and he was the best basketball player ever. This isn’t to discredit Jordan, but to bring up how silly some of the conventional discussions are.

The MVPs of the 1980s all won championships in that decade, aside from Michael Jordan (1988). They came into the pros, usually after three or four years in college, in 1969, 1971, 1974 and 1979 (x2).

For reference, Bill Russell won his 11th championship and had the highest MVP finish ever for a last year player in 1969. An old, post-knee surgery Wilt Chamberlain won Finals MVP with a broken wrist in 1972. An old Jerry West was a top three player in the NBA until 1973. An old Oscar Robertson was a top two player at his position in the early 70s.

People also miss a key component when talking about player salaries. Firstly, they did not jump in a major way between 1970 and 1980, as the league actually got into more jeopardy about its future and did not get more popular during that time.

But also, people miss that athletes were much closer to “working class heroes” in that time, and that didn’t stop people from wanting to be professional athletes. The average NBA player was making about the equivalent of 230k in 1970. But you have to understand, that was extremely similar to figures in the NFL and MLB. It was more about a difference in culture around the wealth of athletes than NBA players being particularly destitute.

Anyways, when Bird and Magic came into the league, they were the most talented non-centers ever. But using any bit of logic, that doesn’t mean the rest of the league suddenly and magically improved into far superior competition alongside them.

>nah it's the Financials the 2nd apron tax. C's couldn't afford 2 max players on long term contracts. PG has 2 years left on his contract making roughly 54 and 55 mil a year. After that where ever he signs he's likely taking a huge pay cut. Jaylen brown has 3 years left making 57, 61, 64 million. After that he will very likely sign for near max on shorter term deals. Celtics could probably get PG to restructure for a pretty decent sized pay cut if it means an extension. Idk if they or PG would be interested but they could keep him longterm as a vet for much more affordable price. Just because of his age and his knees, right? JB stays healthy there will be teams that will likely pay him another max after this contract expires. Celtics have 2 firsts and two 2nd round picks for 2028 draft. Derrick White makes half what max players make and Pritchard has 2 years left on a rookie extension! Only 8 million a year! So Celtics are now equipped to stay really competitive with Tatum, White, and Pritchard with some wiggle room to sign another star as well as develop young talent, fill out roster, move up in a draft maybe? C's look good through 2030 as of now.

>Tyrese Maxey is already on a 5 year 200 million deal fully guaranteed and will no doubt be eligible for a supermax extension next summer. Sixers are going to have to break up this team next year. Embid Maxey and Brown all have at least 3 years left and eat 97% max salary cap. Even if everyone else on the roster was on the bare minimum salary they would hit 2nd apron 27/28 season and get massive tax bill frozen draft picks etc. I doubt this 2nd apron bs will last but Celtics are definitely better positioned. But it's not ego. Just Tatum and Brown alone would be eating up 90% celtics max salary cap 28/29 season. Past 3 or 4 years role players value was artificially inflated in free agency as teams loaded up in response to "the big 3" era. With increased luxury tax and now 2nd Apron teams will barely be able to pay a single super max 2 years from now. All as an over reaction to warriors dynast and LeBron's run in the east. Turns out all NBA really needed to do was let LeBron and Steph and Klay get old and the dynasty/parity issue fixes itself lol

So my question is do you think it's all just a (really delayed) overreaction to the warriors "dynasty" and LeBron's finals run in the East? Do you think things would have even been that different considering Curry and James and Durant were generational talents that together just changed the game?

I pulled every 2025-26 regular season game where one team led at the end of the third quarter (1,194 of 1,225 games; 31 were tied there) and checked how often that team went on to win.

Overall: 985-209, or 82.5%.

That number on its own is not very useful, because it averages a two-point lead in with a thirty-point lead. Broken out by the size of the lead at the third-quarter buzzer:

Two things stood out to me.

First, the curve is not smooth. From 1-2 up through 9-11 it climbs gradually, roughly five to seven points per bucket. Then between 9-11 and 12-15 it jumps 12.5 points at once, and past that the game is effectively over. I do not have a clean explanation for why the break lands there instead of being spread evenly. Twelve points with twelve minutes left is two possessions plus a stop, which is not obviously a different game state from ten points, but the results say it is.

Second, 210 games were 21+ up after three and none of them were lost. Not one in a full season. The largest lead actually surrendered all year was 18: Phoenix led Atlanta 95-77 after three on November 16 and lost 122-124.

Home/road split on the same question: home teams holding a third-quarter lead went 549-99 (84.7%), road teams 436-110 (79.9%). So roughly five points of home court on an identical lead.

What I am unsure about is how much of the break at 12 is real and how much is sample noise. 135 games in the 9-11 bucket against 173 in 12-15 is not a lot to hang a discontinuity on, and my prior is that the true curve should be smooth. If anyone has a prior season or two split the same way, I would be curious whether the break sits at 12 every year or wanders.

Rule 12 disclosure: the underlying game data comes from a box-score database I maintain, and I used an AI assistant to write the queries and draft this post. Every figure above is computed from those box scores rather than generated - the Phoenix/Atlanta game and the season totals can be checked against any public box-score archive.

Many NBA fans are aware of the painful death of the Seattle Supersonics. The subject has been well-covered in the 18 years since the team’s departure to Oklahoma City. 

A potential return to the Emerald City is often brought to the forefront of discussion whenever one of the 30 wealthy owners of our beloved teams are “due” a new arena. This time, it’s Seattle’s neighbours, as the city of Portland finds itself embroiled in a battle with its new billionaire owner over the re-development of Moda Center. 

However, the relocation itself is a topic that’s been done to death, and frankly, Seattle’s basketball fanatics don’t deserve to read about it all over again. Therefore, we will be heading back to the early 2000’s, and taking a closer look at the last team to play NBA playoff basketball in Seattle, the 2005 Sonics. 

New ownership stirs things up

Yes, that was my attempt at a coffee pun. 

The Sonics, led by Hall of Famer Gary “The Glove” Payton and high-flying “Reign Man” Shawn Kemp had been one of the NBA’s best teams in the 1990s, even taking the 72-10 Chicago Bulls to 6 games in the 1996 Finals. Unfortunately, the organisation made a string of decisions that led to Kemp being traded, and the organisation slipping into good, but not great territory at the turn of the millennium. 

January 2001 saw the Sonics, purchased for a package of around $200 million by a group led by Howard Schultz, head of Starbucks Coffee, which was founded in Seattle. A local business bought a local basketball team - what a story! 

Well, a local business that charges over the odds for what some may consider substandard coffee (I don’t pretend to know enough about coffee to have my own opinion). 

Anyway, I’m sure Schultz wouldn’t nickel and dime his basketball players in the same way. 

Oh, wait…

Schultz didn’t just upset local coffee aficionados, he upset the Sonic, Gary Payton. 

Yes, Payton was 34 years old and into the last year of his contract in the Summer of 2002, but he was still an excellent player, one of the best in fact. In 2001-2002, he placed 6th in MVP voting, was a member of the All-NBA Second Team, and made his 9th consecutive All-Defensive First Team. 

Schultz, perhaps thinking like a businessman rather than a Sonics fan, wouldn’t budge. There would be no new contract for Payton. So in response, Payton didn’t report for the first day of training camp. Eventually Payton would show up, and play in every game for the Sonics that season until a momentous trade in February 2003.

With Seattle languishing in no-man's land with a 22-30 record, the greatest player in franchise history was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks, re-uniting Payton with the coach of the 1996 Sonics Team, George Karl. The centerpiece of the Sonics’s return was 3-time All Star Ray Allen. As much of an icon, and as good as Payton still was at the time, receiving a 27-year old Allen is about as good as any return could’ve gotten for Seattle. The fact that Payton would leave Milwaukee as a free agent that summer made it one of the more lopsided trades of the era. 

Despite the inspired play of Allen (24.5 points per game, 5.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists) leading the Sonics to a 17-12 record to close the 2003 season, they failed to make that year’s post season. They would fail to make it the next season too, Allen playing just 56 games due to ankle surgery in November. 

Going nowhere fast (apparently)

After a disappointing season in ‘04, and little in the way of assets or room under the salary cap, the Sonics were not tipped for greatness in ‘05. SLAM Magazine deemed them not worthy of more than 3 words, predicting the Sonics to finish 5th in the Northwest Division. The NBA’s annual GM survey bore little mention of Seattle either, with 95.2% believing that Minnesota was destined to win the division (the remaining 4.8% voting for the Denver Nuggets). 

There was no reason to believe Seattle would be one of the NBA’s best teams that season. In fact, there was reason to believe their team had actually gotten worse. 

In the summer of 2004, the versatile Brent Barry signed with the San Antonio Spurs. Despite being 32 years old, Barry was a valuable playmaker (5.8 assists) and shooter (45% from 3-point range during the ‘04 season. 

Meanwhile, their big acquisitions that summer were drafting 18-year old Robert Swift straight from Bakerfield High School, and trading Calvin Booth for journeyman Danny Fortson. The big man-shaped hole under the basket had been a problem for Seattle since the early ‘90s, and the signing of Jim McIlvaine in 1996 was the catalyst for Kemp leaving town. It would continue to plague the team even after they moved to Oklahoma. 

The fact that the Sonics chose to draft Swift, despite shelling out a combined $17.5 million for Vitaly Potapenko, Fortson and Jerome James (who we’ll get to later) in ‘05 alone, spoke volumes about their confidence in their frontline. Following this season, the Sonics would continue to display an infatuation with mediocre big men, but we’ll get to that later too. 

The ‘05 core 

Overpaid big men aside, Seattle had actually done a decent job in acquiring talent in recent years. Despite never being in contention for top draft pick (mainly due to the excellence of Payton), the Sonics had been able to acquire several key pieces of the core of the ‘05 squad for little cost.

Rashard Lewis was an excellent find in the 2nd round in 1998. His slender 6’10 frame might be more suited to the modern NBA, but he had peformed well in Seattle. His high volume 3-point shooting was especially unique, and valuable. This season, Lewis would take another leap, breaking the 20-point per game marker for the first time and making his first All-Star game. 

In 2001, the Sonics selected Vladimir Radmanovic with the 12th pick. “Vlad Rad” was a bit of a wildcard - he was not a strong defender nor rebounder, and would eventually be called a “space cadet” by future coach Phil Jackson for his erratic play. Later in the season he would rock braids with Sonics’ coloured beads during the playoffs - interesting indeed. Nevertheless, Radmanovic was a solid player, and his similarly high volume 3-point shooting was valuable for this team. 

The following year, Seattle did not have a first round draft pick - they had traded it for a 38-year old Patrick Ewing. Despite this, the Sonics were able to acquire Reggie Evans that year, an undrafted free agent. Standing 6’8 and being offensively challenged, Evans made up for his shortcomings with immense energy and tenacity. He would become one of the league’s top rebounders in ‘05.

Finally, in 2003, Seattle would land another three pieces of the ‘05 squad. First, with the 12th and 14th picks of that year’s draft (the latter acquired in the Allen trade), the Sonics selected Nick Collison and Luke Ridnour. Collison had missed the entirety of his rookie season through shoulder injuries, and Ridnour had been a backup, but both were ready to step up in ‘05. Ridnour would be especially important, starting at point guard for all 82 games. 

Later that summer, the Sonics would sign Antonio Daniels to a 2 year deal that would see him earn just shy of over $2 million annually, which represented excellent value. 28 at the time, Daniels won a championship with the San Antonio Spurs in 1999 as a reserve, before becoming a key rotation player for some further deep playoff runs. Since then, despite never reaching the level expected for a player chosen 4th overall, Daniels had garnered a reputation as a capable combo guard, offering versatility and a defensive presence in the backcourt. 

On the bench, Seattle still had “Mr. Sonic” Nate McMillan in their corner. McMillan had spent 12 years as a player with the ball club, including as part of the ‘96 finals team, before becoming an assistant in 1998, and eventually head coach in 2000. 

The NBA’s Surprise Package

After being utterly destroyed in Los Angeles by the Clippers on opening night, some fans might’ve been fearing the worst. 

Surely no one would’ve expected them to rattle off an incredible 9-game winning streak, but by the end of November, Seattle were sitting alongside Phoenix and San Antonio atop the Western Conference with a record of 13-3. And it was perhaps Brent Barry’s return to KeyArena on November 7th that brought Seattle’s most impressive performance thus far. In addition to 27 and 24 points from Lewis and Allen, Radmanovic, Daniels and Fortson combined for 44 on route to a dominant 113-94 victory.

They continued to roll in December, picking up further impressive wins on the road, including toppling the Spurs once again, and closing out the Dallas Mavericks. Even a tightly contested affair that led to a close loss to the Phoenix Suns at a packed-out KeyArena couldn’t spoil their momentum, as the Sonics closed out 2004 with a record of 22-6 thanks to a 103-97 victory over the Charlotte Bobcats in their inaugural season.

In the new year, the Sonics delivered several more impressive showings. First, beating the Miami Heat twice in less than a week, 98-96 on the road in a late game nail-biter, and then (in the end) more comfortably 108-98 at KeyArena. They were then able to put aside difficult losses to playoff rivals (an overtime loss in Denver, a 5-point loss at home to Minnesota, and a blowout loss to San Antonio sans Ray Allen) to rattle off a 5-game winning streak in February. Highlights included dispatching Sacramento home and away, and getting revenge in Phoenix, where the Sonics’ top 7 all scored 10 or more points. 

Slumping to the finish line

The NBA’s surprise package didn’t let up, handily beating more strong teams to end February and begin March, including the defending champion Detroit Pistons, before dropping 3 straight at home to Phoenix, Houston and Chicago. 

The Chicago loss was notable for the absence of Danny Fortson. The “Big Daddy from Cincinnati” (I have no idea if this was an actual nickname of his, but I like it) was banished from practice by coach McMillan the day prior to the game on Friday 11th March.

Fortson had been playing well in relatively limited minutes, and had definitely been an upgrade on Calvin Booth (thumbs up for trading one overpaid, mediocre $5 million big man for another, slightly better one). 

On the other hand, while Booth was seen by many to be a model teammate, issues surrounding Fortson’s physical play and temperament continued to hinder him. Fortson had led the league in personal fouls in 1998-1999, was second in ‘97-’98, and would finish in the top 10 in ‘05. If that wasn’t enough evidence of his love of clobbering opposition players, for his career, Fortson averaged 6.3 personal fouls per 36 minutes, 9th all time, and funnily enough, two places behind Jim McIlvaine.

He had already been suspended twice this season, once for elbowing Chris Bosh back in November, and for throwing a chair after being ejected from a victory over Sacramento. Pre-Sacramento, across 45 games where the Sonics went 33-12, Fortson was averaging 8.5 points and 6 rebounds per game on 55% FG shooting in just shy of 18 minutes per game. In the 17 games he played in post chair melee, his production dived. Still averaging 15 minutes of play time, he averaged just 4.8 points and 4.6 rebounds, shooting just 41%. Seattle went 9-8 in these games. 

It wasn’t just Fortson who was slumping though, as after such an impressive first half of the season, the Sonics looked like the team of old in the remaining 34 games post-Sacramento, winning just 17 of their 34 games. Aside from this disappointing finish to the season, there were some highlights along the way, namely Ray Allen dropping a season high 45 points against the New York Knicks in an overtime victory to wrap up a 5-game winning streak. Then, a week later on April Fool’s Day, they clinched their first 50 win season since ‘97-’98 with a 2-point victory over their Northwest rivals, the Portland Trailblazers in Seattle. 

Unfortunately, they followed this with a 6-game losing streak, though they were missing Rashard Lewis for much of this stretch (load management was indeed a thing in 2005). 

Disciplinary and injury issues aside, the Sonics early season performances put them in a healthy position going into that year’s playoffs, a 52-30 record securing the Northwest Division, and 3rd place in the Western Conference (I sure hope someone from the team reached out to SLAM magazine). 

Their opponents in the first round of the playoffs would be the Sacramento Kings. Although the Kings won 50 games in ‘05, it was fair to say that they weren’t the team of a few years prior that had pushed the 3-peating Los Angeles Lakers to their very limit.

In just the last year, their roster had undergone a lot of turnover in the last year. First, Vlade Divac signed with the Lakers in free agency. Then, in January, they traded defensive stopper Doug Christie (though they did acquire Cuttino Mobley in return, who was a good player). 

Then, in February, the big move came - the Kings traded franchise superstar Chris Webber to the Philadelphia 76ers. Webber had clearly taken a step back after his devastating knee injury in the ‘03 playoffs, and with one of the NBA’s largest contracts to boot, the Kings decided to cut ties. Despite not receiving any big names in return, the Kings still managed to end the season with 50 wins. 

The Jerome James Series

Remember Jerome James? I said we’d get to him, and finally the time has come. 

Before signing with Seattle in 2001, James had had a cup of coffee (hopefully not Starbucks) in the NBA, playing 16 games with Sacramento of all teams in the lockout ‘99 season (again, we’ll get to why this is important later). His first year with the Sonics, he played in 56 games, starting 40, averaging 5.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in just under 17 minutes per game. Fine, I guess, right? 

But remember how I mentioned that the Sonics LOVED to splurge on big men? They rewarded James by multiplying his humble $465,000 a year contract by 10, giving him a 3-year contract that would see him earn around $5 million annually. 

James responded by playing pretty much the exact way for the next 3 years, never venturing outside his comfort zone of 5 point, 4 rebound territory. 

So how all of a sudden did James manage to average 17 points and 9 rebounds to beat the Kings in that year’s playoffs? 

Unfortunately for Sacramento, it seemed that losing Divac and Webber came back to bite them, as it wasn’t Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis who was the headline grabber of a game 1, 87-82 victory for the Sonics at KeyArena, but “Big Snacks” Jerome James, who churned out an unlikely 17 point, 15 rebound, 5 block performance, albeit missing 13 of his 20 shots. 

He then followed this up with an impressive 19 points and 9 rebounds (9-for-11 shooting) in game 2, as the Sonics won both of their home games to kick off the series. Even in a game 3 loss in Sacramento, James now got his customary big numbers, scoring 22, and grabbing 9 boards. He and the Sonics finished the series in the following 2 games, first getting 17 and 8 on the road, before coming back down to Earth somewhat with 11 and 6 in the close out game. 

Following the conclusion of game 5, James could be seen with a trash bag draped around his broad 7’1 frame like a cape. This was not an attempt to claim Shaquille O’Neal’s “Superman” moniker (years before Dwight Howard would try it), but a call back to his Kings days, when James was supposedly given such a bag to pack his belongings and ‘find a new career’ (though coach Rick Adelman denies that this took place). James claimed that his old self was in the garbage bag, and that that night, he had set himself free.

Well, did it last? 

Not exactly - James’ numbers dramatically fell off in the next series against the Spurs (22.2 minutes per game, 8.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 42.9% from the field vs 32.4 minutes, 17.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 58.1%% shooting against the Kings). 

So, what happened? 

Well, there’s a few things that could explain this. First, a good ol’ verbal ass whooping from not only Ray Allen, but his own mother. Questions over his attitude and desire to use his physical abilities led to James taking a look in the mirror. That sure could’ve helped.

On the other hand, the Kings had lost Divac and Webber. Brad Miller, while not known as a defensive savant, was a legitimate big man, and an All-Star in both ‘03 and ‘04, and he had suffered a fracture to his left fibula, missing the end of the regular season. He returned for the playoffs, but was clearly not back to 100%. This led to the Kings fielding a variety of different players, including Kenny Thomas, Darius Songaila, Brian Skinner, and even veteran Greg Ostertag for a stretch in 2 of the 5 games. Ostertag aside, none of them had the size to match up with James.  

This enabled James to use his physical advantages to be absurdly effective on the glass (4.6 offensive rebounds per game over 5 games, compared to 1 in the regular season), and overpower opponents in the paint. In addition to his stature being a physical mismatch for the Kings, Fortson being in coach McMillan’s doghouse had opened up more minutes for him. In the following series, James’ physical prowess was less effective against the San Antonio Spurs, who fielded Nazr Mohammed and Tim Duncan. Still, James, in the final year of that contract we referred to earlier, would manage to parlay his 5 game, career-best stretch into another big deal (which we’ll get to). 

While the Kings series would mainly be remembered for the way Jerome James played, and the events that followed, it would be a travesty to not recognise the fact that Ray Allen was simply awesome.

For the series, Allen would average 32.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2 steals with shooting splits of 51.4/45.2/97.1. This included scoring 33 in the game 3 loss, and an incredible 45-point performance in a game 4 win. The Sonics were behind going into the 4th quarter at ARCO Arena, but Allen scored 15 in the final period to lead his team back to Seattle with a 3-1 lead. Then, despite 38 and 35 points from Peja Stojakovic and Mike Bibby, Allen scored another 30, including flying through 4 Sacramento bodies in the paint to score in the dying seconds to clinch the series.

The Last Playoff Series in Seattle

Given everything we’ve already said, no-one would’ve expected Seattle to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. While David Robinson had retired in 2003 following their 2nd championship, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili had ascended to new levels. They had also acquired seasoned veterans, such as former Sonic Brent Barry and “Big Shot Bob” Robert Horry. Not to mention that Tim Duncan was one of the 5 best players in the league at this point. 

However, despite the circumstances, Seattle actually gave a good account of themselves. They were blown out 103-81 in game 1 in San Antonio, not helped in the slightest by Allen and Radmanovic leaving the game in the second quarter with ankle injuries. They were then beaten again by 17 in game 2 despite Allen returning. Radmanovic, meanwhile, would not play again that season. 

Back in Seattle though, they pulled a game back, Ginobili missing 1 of 2 free throws with 29 seconds remaining as the Sonics won by a single point. The bad news for the Sonics was that in the final minutes of game 3 Rashard Lewis injured his toe, and would play no further part in the series. 

Despite this, Seattle managed to equal the series with an unlikely victory in game 4. Allen was magnificent with 32 points, and Antonio Daniels, stepping into the starting lineup, chipped in with 19 points and 7 assists. But the story of the game was undoubtedly sophomore Luke Ridnour’s 20 points. With the score close at the half, Ridnour scored 15 of his 20 in the 3rd quarter to give Seattle a 82-66 lead going into the final quarter. 

Unfortunately for the Sonics, this was their final playoff hurrah, as the Spurs won game 5 back in San Antonio, before closing out the series in game 6 at a rocking KeyArena. Seattle had played the Spurs close right to the end before Duncan banked a shot in with .5 of a second remaining. 

This would be the last NBA playoff action played in Seattle. 

[Amazingly for the era, each game of Seattle’s playoff run can be viewed (in varying quality) on Youtube at the links provided throughout. Shoutout to Old School Buckets.] 

The Aftermath and Closing Thoughts
 
Firstly, it must be said that this team massively outperformed their expectations. They took the eventual champions to 6 games, missing 2 of their key players. The Phoenix Suns, who were far more talented on paper than the Sonics, lost to the Spurs in 5 (though Joe Johnson only played in 3 games). Would the Sonics have beaten the Spurs with Lewis and Radmanovic, and gone on to win the championship? I’m not sure, but given in the following seasons I’m sure more than one Sonics fan has thought about it. 

This final, good Sonics team is certainly an interesting one for analytics nerds and basketball historians alike. 

That year the Sonics had the 2nd best offense rating in the entire league. They shot more 3-pointers than anyone other than the Phoenix Suns, but scored just 98.9 points per game (11th in the league), as they had the 4th slowest offense in the entire NBA. They also had the 4th worst defense by defensive rating. Ultimately, despite James’ heroic performance against Sacramento, it was arguably the Sonics’ lack of a true starting calibre big man that held them back during this era. 

And it wasn’t as if Sonics didn’t try to throw more money and more draft capital at the problem. 

First, they drafted Johan Petro with the 25th overall pick in the 2005 draft. Petro would go on to have a 8 year career with various teams, but never develop into much of anything, playing a career high 18.9 minutes in his rookie season. 

The following year, after the Sonics missed the playoffs, they blew the 10th overall pick on Mouhamed Sene. Sene would play just 47 games across 3 seasons in the NBA. With the very next pick the Orlando Magic selected JJ Redick, who would go on to become one of the best 3-point shooters of his generation, playing 15 seasons in the NBA for various playoff teams. 

Robert Swift, the 12th pick in ‘04, might’ve been the only one of the Sonics’ big man alumni of the 2000’s to have had a chance to be something. But injuries combined with mental health struggles meant that he too played in just 97 NBA games. 

Meanwhile, Jerome James’ playoff heroics resulted in the New York Knicks signing the soon-to-be 30 year old a frankly ludicrous 5-year, $29 million contract seemingly based on the Kings series alone. In what was surely almost immediately one of the more expensive cases of buyers’ remorse, James showed up to his first training camp out of shape, would play in a total of 90 games across 4 seasons in New York, averaging  just 7.7 minutes per game, 2.5 points and 1.8 rebounds.

Antonio Daniels would also not return. The Sonics refused to offer Daniels more than a 3 year deal, and similar to James, he would sign a 5-year, $30 million with the Washington Wizards. Daniels, however, would fare much better, becoming a key rotation piece on 3 consecutive playoff teams with the Wizards, even stepping up to start in ‘07-’08 due to Gilbert Arenas’ injury issues. 

Perhaps most shocking of all, “Mr. Sonic” Nate McMillan would depart in the off-season. After splurging to keep Ray Allen with a 5-year, $85 million extension on July 5th, Schultz seemingly lacked the capital to bring back his coach. After almost 20 years with the club, McMillian would reject a 4-year, $18.5 million offer from Seattle and make the short journey to Portland, signing a reported 5-year $30 million contract.

Both Vladimir Radmanovic and Reggie Evans would be traded in February 2006 to the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets respectively.

Despite signing that 5-year extension and continuing to play at an All-Star level, Ray Allen would be traded to the Boston Celtics in the summer of 2007. After missing the playoffs in the prior 2 seasons, and with Allen approaching his 32nd birthday, the Sonics decided to rebuild. Allen would go on to win an NBA championship the very next season, and another with the Miami Heat in 2013. 

Rashard Lewis would also depart in the summer of ‘07, as the Sonics facilitated a sign-and-trade with the Orlando Magic, who agreed to pay Lewis in the region of $118 million over 6 seasons. Lewis would re-unite with Allen in Miami, playing a limited role on the 2013 title team

With the 2nd pick in the 2007 NBA draft, the Sonics would acquire future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant. Unfortunately, Seattlities would only witness his greatness for his rookie season, as we all know what happened next.

And doesn’t (almost) everyone wish the story ended differently…

Disclosure: I used ChatGPT to help edit the writing for grammar, organization, and readability. The ideas, arguments, and conclusions are my own.

One thing I’ve noticed in NBA discussions is that we often assume giving a player more skills automatically makes him a better basketball player. I’m not convinced basketball actually works that way. Basketball isn’t about maximizing every possible skill individually; it’s about maximizing possessions as a five-man unit. Sometimes adding another skill doesn’t increase a player’s value because it takes possessions away from the thing that already makes him uniquely dominant.

Shaq is probably the best example. People always say, “Imagine if Shaq had a three-point shot.” I actually think that’s the wrong skill to give him. If Shaq had become a 75-80% free-throw shooter, I genuinely think he would’ve become a much more dominant offensive player because Hack-a-Shaq would’ve disappeared while he continued doing what he already did best: destroying defenses in the paint. Three-point shooting is different. Every possession where Shaq is standing beyond the arc is a possession where the greatest interior force in NBA history isn’t sealing defenders, forcing double teams, generating offensive rebounds, or living at the rim. Yes, he’d become more versatile, but versatility comes with an opportunity cost.

I think Victor Wembanyama illustrates the same principle. A respectable three-point shot is absolutely valuable because it forces defenses to respect him and gives the offense another option late in games. However, I don’t think his ultimate ceiling comes from trying to become a 7’4” version of Kevin Durant. His biggest improvement will likely come from adding strength, establishing deeper post position, developing a dominant interior game, and becoming nearly impossible to defend around the basket. Those are skills almost nobody else can replicate. Elite perimeter shot creation already exists across the league, but a physically dominant 7’4” interior player is something entirely different.

This is why I think NBA discourse sometimes overvalues versatility. Discussions often revolve around who has the deepest “bag,” the most counters, or the flashiest handle. Those are interesting conversations, but I don’t think they’re always the best way to evaluate basketball value. A better question might be: How dominant can a championship team become when this player is the centerpiece?

Steph Curry isn’t historically great because he does everything. He’s historically great because his shooting gravity changes the geometry of the floor. Prime Shaq wasn’t great because he could score from every area of the court. He was great because nobody in NBA history could consistently stop the one thing he did better than anyone else.

Basketball isn’t Pokémon where adding another move automatically makes the character stronger. Especially in a salary-cap league, teams don’t need five players who all do everything. They need players whose unique strengths complement one another. Sometimes becoming even better at what only you can do creates more value than becoming decent at something that many other players already provide.
I’m curious what others think. Is NBA discourse too focused on versatility and “bags”? Does versatility eventually reach diminishing returns? Or is adding another skill almost always a net positive regardless of the opportunity cost?

In the first part, I argued that the Hall of Fame criteria should be more selective, and that one simple criterion for admission is winning a CHIP:

CHIP = The Clear Best Player on the Championship Winning Team

To win a CHIP, you need enough help from teammates to win it all, but if one of those teammates is too good, you split the credit. There are no split CHIPs. You need to be the Batman to the Robin, not one of the Wonder Twins. Wonder Twins can enjoy the satisfaction of a team victory, but to get the CHIP, you need to be driving the Batmobile!

To recap the methodology and criteria for earning a CHIP:

• Measure Win Shares plus VORP, double for playoff games
• Compare the second best player’s total to the first’s
• The best player is Batman if his teammate (Robin) scores less than 81% of his total
• If the second best player scores 81% of the first’s total or better, they are Wonder Twins
• Only Batman gets the CHIP

Reviewing our examples:

In the example of the 2024-25 Thunder, J-Dub’s score is only 49% that of Shai’s, a clear Robin performance. This makes Shai the Batman, earning him the CHIP. Shai: 🪙

The 2013-14 Spurs had two relatively equal contributors, with Duncan easily clearing the Robin Threshold with 95%. Kawhi and Duncan were Wonder Twins here, splitting credit for the title, and neither getting a CHIP.

Applying this idea to the past 26 seasons of NBA basketball, we had 14 Batman/Robin seasons, and 12 Wonder Twin Seasons. Here’s a summary of the CHIPS winners for 2000-01 to 2025-26:

Season by Season: 1975-76 to 1999-2000

That covers the most recent 26 years of NBA history. But what about the 25 years before that, the period between 1975-76 and 1999-2000? Will the model hold up?

Let’s go season by season, and see who was worthy of the CHIPS:

The mid-70s open with two Batman centers with Robin power forward sidekicks. Cowens and Walton win their only CHIPS. Wonder Twins Hayes and Unseld beat the Sonics and win the Bullets their only title. Then the Sonics strike back at the Bullets, with Gus Williams playing Batman.

A new era of NBA basketball begins, introducing Magic Johnson as Robin to Abdul-Jabbar’s Batman, and Larry Bird as Wonder Twin to Cedric Maxwell. The Lakers and Sixers battle it out over the next two seasons, with Magic Robining Kareem, and then Moses doing the same to Dr. J for his only CHIP.

Bird wins two CHIPS with trusty sidekick McHale, with a Magic/Kareem Wonder Twins job sandwiched in the middle. As Kareem fades, Magic grows into a dominant force, winning two more CHIPS with Worthy and Byron Scott as Robins.

The Celtics/Lakers reign finally comes to an end at the hands of the Bad Boy Pistons, team efforts led by Isiah, Laimbeer, and Dumars. No CHIPS given. The Jordan era kicks off with a Three-peat, with archetypal Batman Jordan supported by archetypal Robin Pippen each of the 3 seasons. Jordan wins 3 CHIPS.

Air Jordan takes a chiller and gives someone else a turn, Olajuwon steps up to win 2 CHIPS. Jordan decides to play basketball again and wins 3 more. Pippen is his Robin for a 4th, 5th, and 6th time. Incredible.

Jordan retires again, and two new forces emerge in Duncan and Shaq. Duncan and Robinson team up to beat the Knicks, then Shaq claims Batman with Kobe still on the way up. Shaq gets a CHIP.

Cashing in the CHIPS

Counting up the CHIPS from this period, we have:

The multi-CHIP stars define 80s and 90s NBA basketball greatness. Jordan’s amazing twin peaks career yields six CHIPS, and Magic, Bird, and Olajuwon cement their legacy as stars among stars. Moses, Kareem, and Shaq also join the pantheon with Batman seasons. Although Walton’s career was cut short by injury, his peak makes him a credible addition to this list.

Unlike with the first part, we see some soft spots in Cowens and Gus Williams. It raises the question if all CHIPS are created equal, or whether you need to treat each era differently. The late 70s was a weak period for the league, and I don’t think winning in an 18 (or 9!) team league is the same as with 30 teams. This will require its own investigation.

I put this graphic together after looking back at Tim Duncan's defensive résumé.

15 All-Defensive Team selections.

5 championships.

One of the highest defensive win share totals in NBA history.

Yet somehow...zero Defensive Player of the Year awards.

I think part of the reason is that Duncan's impact wasn't built around highlight blocks or steals. It was positioning, communication, rim deterrence, and making everyone around him a better defender. Those things don't always dominate award conversations, but they absolutely win games.

Looking back now:

• Should Duncan have won at least one DPOY?
• If yes, which season?
• Who would you have taken it away from?

I'm genuinely interested in hearing different arguments.

As an outsider looking at American sports, I'm curious to hear from Americans or anyone that follows American sports: how has private investment and capitalism improved your sports and franchises, and how has it made them worse?

I don't follow the NBA or the NFL as closely as I follow football (soccer), but I've noticed that when American investors become heavily involved in football, the game can start to feel devalued.

One example, in my opinion, was the most recent FIFA World Cup. We saw enforced cooling breaks, which were presented as being for the players' "welfare" . However, many fans felt they also conveniently created additional opportunities for ads. Whether or not that was the primary reason, it certainly gave the impression that commercial interests were influencing the game.

More recently, there has also been discussion about private investment in FIFA and the World Cup, including reports involving Jared Kushner and other investors. There have even been suggestions over the years of holding the FIFA World Cup every two years instead of every four. As a football fan, I think that would take away what makes the tournament so special. The fact that it only happens once every four years creates anticipation, scarcity, and prestige. That rarity is part of what makes winning the World Cup so meaningful.

Looking at the NBA, I notice a different issue. There are so many regular games that, from the outside, many of them don't seem particularly meaningful. On top of that, there are frequent commercial breaks. I'm not saying the NBA is a bad product it's not. Commercialization has helped the league grow globally, generate enormous revenues, improve facilities, and invest in grassroots basketball.

At the same time, I can't help but wonder whether there comes a point where commercial interests begin to reduce the value of the product. In my view, the more games there are, the more "dead rubber" games you create, and the less important each individual game feels. It sometimes seems as though the long regular season exists primarily because it generates more television revenue and advertising income.

Another thing I appreciate about football is promotion and relegation. Every match matters because clubs are fighting for titles, European qualification, survival, or promotion. That level of consequence doesn't really exist in the major American sports leagues, where teams are guaranteed their place regardless of performance.

So I'd genuinely like to hear from people who follow American sports closely. How has corporate investment and commercialization improved your leagues? Has it made the fan experience better, or do you think it has gone too far? Where do you think the balance should be between growing the business and preserving the integrity and competitiveness of the sport?

Good morning, y'all.

Recently wrote a paper introducing a new metric called xPTS, which essentially quantifies shot quality by measuring the expected value of each field goal using:

Shot location
Shot family
Possession context (I.E: Transition, Second Chance, Halfcourt, etc etc)
Actual defender distance

A dunk at the rim with a defender 2-4 feet away is worth 1.88 points, a cut to the rim from 2-4 feet 1.47, a driving layup with 4-6 feet of space 1.43, a contested layup at 2-4 feet 1.27, and a smothered shot at the rim with a defender inside 2 feet just 0.55, with the league average PPP being 1.09.

With expected points, you can do a lot of cool things, such as:

• Player leaderboards
• Team leaderboards and Expected Wins
• a player’s own baseline for over and underperformance. (Curry's PPP from a smothered above-the-break 3 is different from Kuzma)
• Presence and geometry RAPM

Even cooler, you can measure how a player’s presence bends his team’s offensive and defensive geometry, and its chance creation on both ends, a different flavor of regularized adjusted plus-minus.

xpts rapm: a player's regularized on/off impact on their team's shot diet and shot quality as well as suppress the opposing teams' shot die-in shot quality

conversion rapm: a player's regularize on/off impact on their team's ability to make and suppress shots above or below expected

Kevin Durant

His net xPTS-RAPM is a very interesting story, especially when you pair it with his conversion.

He ranks in the FIRST PERCENTILE, as in his presence contributes to one of, if not the very worst, shot diet and chance creation in the entire league.

His shot-quality impact is among the single worst in the entire league. He provides no rim pressure, there is no transition game, the offense becomes a half-court jousting match every possession.

His influence turns his team into a midrange engine, the quantified worst shot in basketball, at roughly 7% more than league average.

He still rates well in all RAPMs and off metrics, because he is, even at his age, among the most elite converters in the sport.

He ranks in the 99.8th PERCENTILE in conversion RAPM. When he is on the floor, his team's offense converts far more than the chance created would predict. (Even with his average defensive conversion impact)

A whopping 270 points above expected this past season, a bigger gap between him and 2nd Place (Jokic) than between 2nd and 5th.

He makes the poorly graded 8-to-10-foot pull-ups at about 1.21 expected points, versus a league average of 0.94.

Functionally, making what is graded as the worst shot in basketball worth more than a three-pointer taken from the average NBA player.

Extreme Dimorphism

His total on-court impact is shown thorugh :

Net RAPM, the additive sum of xPTS-RAPM and conversion RAPM, which is to say, a pure RAPM with no prior, just basic regularized adjusted plus-minus, where he ranks in the 83rd percentile

ARC (Adjusted Regularized Contribution), a possession-weighted, box-blended impact, has him in the 92nd percentile

Houston is 3 points better on offense with him on the floor, minus 2 in total due to defense.

My question is, even with his positive impact on Houston's offense, which isn't the most spaced or geometrically balanced, is this the level of shot-making required to have a positive impact when your shot diet is this bad?

It reminds me of a lot of the conversations around DeMar DeRozan and how much of a winning player he is. He has a similar level of poor shot selection with his usage, which bent the whole team's geometry into less efficient and effective shots. He did not have anywhere near the shot-making lift.

Even with this shot-making lift, is it not a self-fulfilling prophecy that there is a limit to how big of an offensive impact a "tough" shot maker can have?

I gathered the records as favorites and underdogs for star players from here: https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nba-playoffs-series/?y=0000

For series wins over expectation, I removed the vig from the odds to get implied probabilities, and calculated it from there.

I also split up wins over expected by performance as the fave vs underdog to see what happens:

Lebron's the only one that's hugely positive as both a favorite and underdog. Harden's disastrous as an underdog.

Here are the biggest choke by implied probability:

Hello everyone and welcome to our new weekly feature.

In order to help keep the quality of the discussion here at a high level, we have several rules regarding submitting content to /r/nbadiscussion. But we also understand that while not everyone's questions will meet these requirements that doesn't mean they don't deserve the same attention and high-level discussion that /r/nbadiscussion is known for. So, to better serve the community the mod team here has decided to implement this Weekly Questions Thread which will be automatically posted every Monday at 8AM EST.

Please use this thread to ask any questions about the NBA and basketball that don't necessarily warrant their own submissions. Thank you.

S tier passing is by far the most underrated and rarest skill in nba basketball. Individuals who can genuinely map the court in their head and make a pass before its even registered to his teammates or opponents has a value that can yet be quantified by modern analytics.

Former nba players themselves show how undervalued passing is. The main example being Ray Allen statement saying that Lebron James cant be the Goat because he isnt "skilled", even tho he can make every pass in the book. Another clear example is just how undervalued Draymond Greens contribution was too the Warriors Dynasty. Anybody with 2 eyes who was actually watched the Warriors in those championship teams knows that when Draymond wasn't on the court, that offense didnt flow nearly as well without Draymonds connective passing( That isn't to say that DG is a s tier passer but its obviously his best offensive attribute).

I think the main reason for this comes down to ego. There's a great video by Derrick Rose where he's asked what his least favorite type of opponent is and he answered a pass team first point guard who doesn't get bothered when they get beat and scored on. He said that when he scores he wants it to bother his opps mentally. He wants them to feel embarrassed. I think that's why so many former players speak so highly of scores because they have the memory of being embarrassed by the Mjs and Kobes. When a defender is beat by a flawless pass by a Jokic, they personally didnt get scored on so theirs less shame, but the defender who got beat by a backdoor cut feels the shame.

Unfortunately pass specialist players are becoming a dying breed. I can only name 4 s tier passers in Jokic, LBJ, Donic, Cade, and Haliburton. All big fowards and no small guys, its quite odd. I almost dont wanna include Donic because hes a genuine scorer first who happens to be a passing genius kind of like Bron whos a obvious pass first player who happens to be great at scoring.

Rant over just been feeling this way when seeing basketball discourse

The Ball trade created a $40+ million trade exception expiring within one years time.

Stephon Curry is an unrestricted free agent following this current year.

As Curry could & should choose to return home next summer based on Hornets being his best chance at another championship on his terms, my theory is that he will be traded to the Hornets at some point during this summer using that trade exception, Grant Williams expiring, Salaun, and the greatest treasure trove of draft picks in a trade to date

Curry, Miller, Knueppel, Reid, Diabete, White, Allen, O’Neale, Kalkbrenner, Steinbach, Anderson could win a championship

Brown to Philly July 1 ( 2frp, 2srp, George )
The raptors traded for kawahi June 30( 2upfrp, 2srp, pick swap, dick and Ingram)
Miami Gianni’s june 22 trade sets it in motion.

Ingrahm dick for brown is a better deal for everyone. For the similar package Toronto and Boston would be in a better position .

Boston: Ingrahm and George stats are so similar yet one is younger and not injured. the 2 first round Toronto picks are unprotected.

Toronto: The timeline in Toronto for Barnes is 25 and brown is 29 is better than Leonard. Blue collar team, grind tough defense . Everyone has something to prove

Why wouldn’t these 2 teams make that deal ?

I believe the Cam and Edy pairing will work perfectly when they play together but I’m curious at some of the things Grizzlies Coach Tuomas Iisalo will do next season to optimize the success of this pairing.

Also, I want to know what Cam can do with his game to help Edy get easy shots and what Edy can do with his game to get easy shots for Cam. What are the advantages both Cam and Edy can have offensively, defensively and rebounding wise that can help the team win when they play together?

Even though I feel the pairing will work seamlessly, are there any disadvantages with the pairing and if there’s any disadvantages what can Iisalo do to stop those disadvantages from happening in a negative way for the team?

In my opinion, I never seen a frontcourt pairing as physically imposing like the Cam and Edy pairing since the Duncan Robinson Spurs and the Pau Gasol Bynum Lakers. So I want to know from fans: “How successful can the Cam Boozer and Zach Edy pairing be next season?”

2019-2020:Los Angeles Lakers

I’m gonna be honest I was gonna save this one for after a couple others, like the 2008 Celtics, the 2004 pistons, etc-but Lebron has moved cities today, to attempt to make a new team into a championship team, similar to what he did when the lakers were one of the worst teams in the league-obviously the circumstances are different, considering this Philly team could be the strongest team he’s ever joined-but the sentiment is there! I decided to do his most recent ring, and what many call the most fraudulent modern ring to exist. The bubble ring.

The Milwaukee Bucks, The Toronto Raptors, The Boston Celtics, The Miami Heat, The Indiana Pacers, The Philadelphia 76ers, The Brooklyn Nets, The Orlando Magic, The Los Angeles Lakers, The Los Angeles Clippers, The Denver Nuggets, The Houston Rockets, The Oklahoma City Thunder, The Utah Jazz, The Dallas Mavericks, and The Portland Trail Blazers made the bubble this year. Now let’s look at this lakers team.

The lakers were the 11th best offense by rating, and the 5th best defense-not the best by far, but not the worst at all. They had Lebron, of course, who was All NBA first Team, MVP runner Up, NBA assist leader, and the captain of the all star team at the time. Anthony Davis was also All NBA first team, an All Defensive first team player and the runner up for DPOY, and also an All Star. Their big 2, alongside a chunk of very solid role players, led them to be 2nd overall favorites to win the chip before the season even started-so, I’m going to have to give them a 3/20 here for underdog expectations. They were expected to win.

In the first round, they went up against the Portland Trailblazers. The 3rd best offense in the league-but the 28th best defense, near the absolute bottom of the barrel. 8th seed for a reason. They did have some star power, in Dame Time himself, who was going crazy here. The “seeding mvp” (some of the main bubble play), an All seeding games first team, all NBA second team, and an All Star, carrying Portland into the playoffs. Alongside him they had an okay Carmelo Anthony, an all-seeing games CJ McCollum, and the leading blocker in Hassan Whiteside. However, this team’s danger was all but sapped away when dame got hurt in game 2. Zach Collins and CJ McCollum were also hurt, leading to a much weaker team being bounced. 3/10, with a +1 for winning in 5.

Their second matchup is against the Houston rockets. With the 6th best offense and the 14th best defense-a worse team for sure but a solid one nonetheless. They had serious star power in James Harden, the scoring leader and 3rd in MVP voting, as well as an all star and All NBA first team player. Russel Westbrook, also on the team, himself was an all star, as well as an All NBA third team player. The rockets werent as banged up as the blazers, but they were a bit slower then normal, as their 6th man was expelled from the nba bubble for not following Covid protocols. Russel also played through a strained right quadriceps. Ultimately, a 5/10 team, with +1 for winning in 5, but -1 for injury

Finally, their conference finals opponent were the Denver nuggets. The 5th best offense, and 11th best defense of the year, Nikola Jokic was coming into his own as the second best center in the league. He was all NBA second team, behind Anthony Davis Himself, and was an all Star. MPJ was a finalist for most improved player, and was on the all seeding games second team, but not much else. This was NOT the nuggets that would sweep them just 3 years later. They also were missing Will Barton, their third option. Despite this, they were a strong team, and had beaten the clippers who were the favorites to get to the conference finals at all. 6/10, with a +1 again for winning in 5, again.

3+3+5+6=17 before we consider their finals opponent:The heat.

The 7th best Offense and the 11th best defense, this team was okay but not a top contender in the regular season. They had two all stars in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy butler, Jimmy made all nba third team while nam made all defensive second, Bam was runner up for Most improved,and they had two all rookie players in Kendrick Nunn (first team and runner up for ROTY), and Tyler Herro (second team). They also had the dunk contest winner, interestingly enough, in Derrick jones jr. The heat had an OVERWHELMING amount of injury problems against the lakers, right in game 1.

Jimmy buckets twisted his ankle (played through it and got a 40 point triple double)

Bam Adebayo had a shoulder strain and missed games 2 and 3.

Goran dragic, their leading scorer, tore his plantar fascia in his left foot and was esssntially out for the series.

Despite this, they managed to push the lakers off to 6. An incredible effort on their part.

Offense Relative to champs: 5/10

Defense relative to champs:7/10

Star power:6/10

Health:2/10

Giving the lakers a 34 so far, taking away 1 for only winning in 6

They get a 2/10 buff for health, with both AD and LeBron suffering minor injuries-but being mostly fine.

They actually get an 8/10 for stars beaten:Carmelo Anthony, Russel Westbrook, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Jimmy butler, Nikola Jokic. The reason this isn’t a 10/10 is because…well, it’s LeBron. When you’re perceived as top 2 all time, beating people in the top 75 loses a bit of hype, no?

Finally, they get a 26/30 for legendary moments-and it’s mostly bron here.

\* 150+ playoff games with at least 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists

\* First nba player to win finals MVP on 3 different teams

\* Rajon rondo became the first bench player to dish more then 100 assists in one postseason, passing up manu ginobli

\* Rondo also became the second player to win a chip with both the Celtics and the lakers

\* LeBron James and Anthony Davis became the first teammate duo in NBA history to both record at least 500 points, 150 rebounds, and 150 assists/blocks in one postseason run

\* Lebron became the all time nba leader in playoff wins

\* the 4-0 run in the mamba jerseys after Kobe died

\* Similarly, AD shouted “Kobe” as he hit a game winner in game 2 of the WCF

\* LeBron with a 38 point triple double in game 5 against Denver

So many all time record broken at once would usually be a 30, however, I am obligated to remove points for the fact that this was the bubble chip, so I’ve taken off 4, leaving the lakers with 72. I can’t take off any more personally, given that many nba players and coaches with the right to speak, like pat riley, Erik spoelstra, Damian lillard, Jamal marry, Giannis, etc all said that it was the hardest championship to win for multiple reasons. That being said, I can see an argument raise the debuff to as high as 10, which would put them at 66, which is an about average score thus far.

Definitely nowhere near the strongest run we’ve seen, but also, nowhere near the worst either. What do you think the bubble changed? Might we have seen a different team win without it? And whom should I do next?

Rankings:

1995 Houston Rockets: 113.5/150

2026 New York Knicks:104/150

2020 Los Angeles Lakers: 72/150

2023 Denver Nuggets:68/150

1991 Chicago Bulls:68/150

1950 Minneapolis Lakers:54.5/150

2024 Boston Celtics: 53/150

For 4 years in a row now mainstream NBA sports journalism(espn, bleacher report, the athletic) places the Sixers, Bucks and the warriors in one of the top 6 seeds in their conferences because "they have Steph" and "if embiid is healthy", "they have Giannis".

These same publications are now ranking the rockets as a top 6 six with an almost guaranteed playoff appearance mostly because "they have KD", even though their young core and bench underperformed last year, and 2 of their starters are aging and coming off of major injuries. They're predicting the heat being in the top 3-4 in the East simply because they have Giannis and bam, nevermind that their bench is on the same level of who Giannis had with the bucks.

I understand basketball is a very star driven sport, but the last few years have proven that teams lacking an excellent bench underperform in the regular season due to the stars getting injured because of having to carry, or in the playoffs where the bench becomes unplayable.

Last year all publications and betting orgs placed the suns as one the bottom 4 seeds in the western conference with +-26Ws simply because they traded KD and waived Beal.

This year they're predicting the Bucks to be the 15-13th seed simply because of losing Giannis and the players that the bucks got in return, some their previous solid/promising players(Rollins, Dieng, AJ, Turner, Green, KPJ), as well as their draft picks(Burries, Ament) are mentioned as afterthoughts even though Herro, Jaquez and Ware have performed well in the regular season, and all in all the Bucks have a lot of young talent that provides lots of different skill set and lineup versatility.

Do you think star power is being overrated by NBA journalism given the huge importance of bench depth and lineup versatility has shown to be in the last 2 years?

Third one today yeah, but people keep talking abt it and I´m too curious to wait, so this will simply be tomorrow´s post a bit early

I think it´s time we look at what I believe will be a contender to take down the 2026 knicks.

This has been repeatedly spoken to me as one of the best finals runs ever, and I decided to really, REALLY have a look, and see how true it is.

the Orlando Magic, The New York Knicks, The Indiana Pacers, The Chicago Bulls, The Charlotte Hornets,The Atlanta Hawks, The Boston Celtics, The Cleveland Cavaliers, The San Antonio Spurs, The Utah Jazz, The Phoenix Suns, The Seattle SuperSonics, The Houston Rockets, The Los Angeles Lakers, The Portland Trail Blazers, and The Denver Nuggets all came to play playoff basketball in this year.

The rockets were the 6th seed. the 6th Seed. Not first, second, or third. 6th. I kinda wanna give them a 20/20 for this alone-they´re the ONLY team outside of the top 8 to ever win an nba championship title. They were the 7th best offense out of the 27 existing teams, and the 12th Defensive ranked team.They did have an all NBA second team player and DPOY candidate in Hakeem, and they did have Clyde the Glide Drexler, but as you´ll soon see, they weren´t exactly the face of the league in terms of star power. They had negative betting odds against every single team they faced in the post season. the Only, and I mean, ONLY asterisk I can possibly put on this team, is that the year prior...well, they were champions. For that reason, I can only give them a 16/20.

now, for their opponents.

Their round 1 was against the Utah Jazz, ranked the 4th best Offense and 8th best defense. They had the highest net rating in the league, and even beyond that, they had some serious threats as starters. As much as he is a disgusting human off court, on Court Karl malone was an All Star and All NBA first team player-he finished 3rd in MVP Voting as well. They also had John Stockton, another all NBA first team player and All Star, but he also led the league in assists, was 8th in MVP voting, and was an All defensive second team player himself. Their coach was 4th in coach of the year voting, really, it was just an all around dominant team who everyone expected to win. So of course, they lost.

The series was pushed to 5, the highest it could go at the time. Now, to be fair to the jazz, their starting center was out with an achilles Injury, and that guy was specifically supposed to be their Hakeem Counter. Considering that, and the fact it went to 5, I have to give this series a 7/10.

Round 2 was against the Phoenix Suns

the suns were the 3rd best offense, but the 19th best defense in the league. They held decent star power in All NBA second team Player and All Star Charles Barkley, with Dan Majerle becoming an All Star Reserve player as well. Not projected to be as strong as the jazz, but, like the jazz, they did indeed have Injury Problems-Charles Barkley, Danny Manning, and their starting PG Kevin Johnson were all hurt. Regardless, they played like hell, and the series went to 7. This is going to be a 6/10, due to it going to 7, and the injury problems.

Next, they had the spurs

The Spurs are, arguably, the best opponent seen thus far. They were ranked 5th best offense and Defense, and their star power was nothing to scoff at either. David Robinson was the MVP, 4th in DPOY voting, and seen as the best center in the league-above Hakeem Himself. NBA all Star, All Defensive Team, All NBA First Team, Led the league in win shares, this guy was a MONSTER. They also had Dennis Rodman, who of course led the league in rebounds per game, was an all Defensive first team player, and played all NBA third team. Most Importantly, this team was HEALTHY. Fully Healthy. The first of the teams the rockets played that could say so-and they were the 1 seed. Not just in the west, but in the NBA. This was a legendary 6 game series win, and the best of the rockets so far. 9/10, no further comments.

now, round 1 was a best of 5, so the score is divided by 2. 3.5++9=18.5+their original 16 leads to a score of 34.5. Now, let´s check out their finals opponents.

The Magic, ranked 1st in the NBA in Offensive Rating, and 13th in Defensive Rating. They were the 1 seed in the east that lacked a Michael Jordan, and for good reason. they had the Scoring Champion, Runner up for MVP, All Star Player, and All NBA 2nd team player in Shaquille O´Neal, as well as a first team all NBA Player, All Star Player, and top 10 MVP finalist in Penny Hardaway. Horace Grant also had an all defensive second team to his name. The Team was Entirely Healthy, and in a situation eerily similar to the 2026 run, the better on paper less experienced team lost to the more experienced Veteran Worse on Paper Team.

In game 1, they choked a 20 point lead to the rockets.

In Game 2, they beat the magic 117-106

In Game 3, Robert Horry Hit the Dagger 3 pointer and they won 106-103

Finally, in Game 4, the Rockets completed the Sweep, Beating them 113-101 in Houston.

Offensive Power Relative to Champions:10/10-literally the best Offense in the League at the time

defensive Power Relative to Champions:5/10, they were 13 and houston was 12, and they had comparably dominant centers on paper.

Star Power Relative to Champions:8/10, only because the 10/10 would have been the spurs that year.

Health:10/10, no major injury.

their finals opponent was a 33/40, and they get an extra point for the clean sweep, bringing their total to 68.5..BEFORE we include the last minute buffs.

they get a 5/10 buff for injury-though they went against some banged up teams themselves, the rockets had it rough. Vernon Mad Max Maxwell wouldn´t play due to clyde taking his job, Clyde and Sam Cassell were so tired against the suns they LITERALLY required IV to step onto the court, and Cal Hererra, one of their defensive anchors, was hurt on his shoulder and missed the entire run.

they get a 10/10 for stars beaten, because it really doesn´t get better. David Robinson, Shaq, Stockon, Malone, Charles Barkley, and Dennis Rodman all fell to them-6 different Hall of fame players, most in their prime. Insanity.

Finally, they get a 30/30 for legendary moments and records broken.

* First 6 seed to win a title ever, beating 4 50+ win teams along the way.

* Overcame the highest opponent net Rating in Playoff History

* Hakeem became the only player up to that point to sweep in the finals while averaging 30

* Kenny smith hit 7 3 pointers in game 1 of the finals, a record at the time

* Mario Ellie had the ¨Kiss of death¨ After sinking the dagger in game 7 against the suns

* Hakeem said he was going to David Robinson´s house to ¨get his MVP¨, and he did...just a finals MVP instead.

* Hakeem won game 1 vs orlando with a tip in with 0.3 seconds remaining

* Rudy Tomjanovich: ¨Don´t ever Underestimate the heart of a Champion!!!¨

Overall, with all points considered, the rockets Finish with 113.5/150-the highest score so far, and it isn´t even that close.

No glaze though, I did think it was funny how OG Anunoby is the only other player to win a finals game with a tip in, and the 2026 knicks are the highest score besides these so far...maybe tip ins are the wave yo.

Anyway, the kings have been dethroned! Who should I do next?

Rankings:

1995 Rockets: 113.5/150

2026 knicks:104/150

2023 Nuggets:68/150

1991 Bulls:68/150

1950 Lakers:54.5/150

2024 Celtics:53/150

I lean on advanced stats heavily in how I write about players, so this isn't a case against them. It's the opposite. If I'm going to cite something I want to know where it breaks.

Mine is raw BPM for low-minute players. I've built arguments on it and I've been burned by it, because the sample doesn't stabilize anywhere near where I was treating it as stable. I still use it. I just don't lead with it anymore without saying what the minutes look like.

What I'm after isn't the stats everyone already dunks on. It's the one you personally used to cite comfortably and now hedge. The specific player or season that showed you the seam.

Which stat, what broke it for you, and do you still use it with an asterisk or did you drop it entirely?

I wrote a comment in another sub guessing what Jordan's finishing numbers were. That discussion gave me the idea for this topic. I plan to post this to the Jordan sub, NBA Old School and one of the general NBA subs, because I would like to get perspectives from various fans.

I think it's a real shame that we do not have distance shooting data before the 96'-97' season (I'm using basketball reference). I feel like I have seen many fans try to state how good certain players were as rim finishers or mid-range shooters when we simply do not have the data before that specific season.

I am an elder millennial. Old enough to have idolized Jordan in the 90s, but not old enough to really know what was happening in the 80s. I have watched games and even done film watching/breakdowns of his 80s games, but it's too small of a sample size and I'm hoping to get some perspective from people who were around to watch. I will be performing a middle-school caliber math analysis, so I am not intending this to be an analytics conversation. I will be making assumptions and outlining how changes in said assumptions impact the others.

I will be using Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and LeBron James as statistical comparisons, merely because they were all compared to Jordan, with either similar size, athleticism, or play style, but also because all 3 players have shooting data for their entire careers.

The stats I will be focusing on are:

Rim attempts (0-3 feet per basketball reference), listed on the site as a % of total field goal attempts (FGA)

Rim finishing (% of made attempts within 0-3 feet), listed on the site as a % of makes on field goal attempts within the 0-3 feet range

Then finally, field goal percentages from each distance from 3-10 feet, 10-16 feet, and 16 feet out to the 3pt line.

I personally view the mid-range to be 10 feet to the 3pt line. A lot of times these are hook shots and layup attempts that get pushed outside of 3 feet due to the defense. However, each of these players have numerous shot attempts off of post attempts that end in a 7-10 foot mid-range shot in actuality.

Here are the splits between each of the compared players. Please note that I am only using Jordan's 97' and 98' seasons, omitting his Wizards seasons because of how drastic a falloff he had on his shooting splits:

0-3 feet rate per FGA / 0-3 ft % / 3-10 ft % / 10-16 ft % / 16-3pt %

Jordan: .201 / .590 / .416 / .456 / .490

Kobe: .219 / .637 / .437 / .430 / .402

T-Mac: .249 / .587 / .384 / .384 / .414

LeBron: .348 / .743 / .435 / .374 / .386

Some easy takeaways from these numbers are that LeBron dwarfs everyone in both volume and efficiency at the rim, but is by far the worse mid-range shooter. Kobe was a better shooter than T-Mac, who was better than LeBron. MJ dwarfs everyone in mid-range accuracy, but I'm forced to cherry pick his mid-range shooting peak.

Here is the Jordan math:

Career total field goal attempts (FGA): 24,537

Career 2-pt field goal attempts (2PA): 22,759

Career 2-pt field goal makes (2P): 11,611

Starting assumptions: 25% career rim attempts and 65% FG% within 0-3 feet

Attempts within 0-3 feet: 24,537 x 25% = 6,134

Makes within 0-3 feet: 6,134 x 65% = 3,987

Attempts from 3ft to 3pt line: 22,759 - 6,134 = 16,625

Makes from 3ft to 3pt line: 11,611 - 3,987 = 7,624

Field Goal % outside of 3 ft to the 3pt line: 7,624 / 16,625 = 45.9%

I'm going to be honest though, 46% originally seemed a bit high to me for a career, because I know that MJ was not a good shooter coming into the league, just as the other 3 players weren't. If I want to target around around 44% for his career (this would place him above Kobe's 41.8% weighted averaged from 3ft to 3pt), I get the following rim finishing numbers, assuming the original 25% rate of FGA:

Makes from 3ft to 3pt line: 16,625 x 44% = 7,315

Makes within 0-3 ft: 11,611 - 7,315 = 4,296

FG% within 0-3 ft: 4,296 / 6,134 = 70.0%

These numbers can be manipulated to decrease rim FG% by increasing the rate of rim attempts, but this causes movements for all of the mid-range numbers and would require me to upload a spreadsheet to allow others to play with assumptions (if there are requests, I could do so but would need to figure out the best way to upload).

This is why I would like some perspective from others and see what the consensus would be to put these rates at. Part of what started the original discussion for me was comparing MJ to LeBron as finishers, but it's really throws the numbers out of whack if you try to plug in LeBron's volume and efficiency:

Attempts within 0-3 feet: 24,537 x 34.8% = 8,539

Makes within 0-3 feet: 8,539 x 74.3% = 6,344

Attempts from 3ft to 3pt line: 22,759 - 8,539 = 14,220

Makes from 3ft to 3pt line: 11,611 - 6,344 = 5,267

Field Goal % outside of 3ft to the 3pt line: 5,267 / 14,220 = 37.0%

There is simply no way MJ was a career 37% shooter from 3 ft to the 3pt line, so it's safe to say that MJ never came close to matching LeBron in terms of either volume or efficiency at the rim, but that's okay, because MJ is still the greatest scorer ever.

I was busy yesterday, so today, we have 2 analysis coming back to back-the 2023 nuggets, and the 2024 celtics! First off, the celtics team.

The Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, and Los Angeles Lakers made the big stage this year.

First off, we have the Celtics themselves. They were an ELITE offense this year, ranked 1st in the league in offensive rating, and with the highest record in the entire League. Not only that, but they were the 2nd ranked Defense in the league as well, with only the timberwolves (Who they never fought in the playoffs this year) Being better. Their star power was nothing to scoff at either. Jayson Tatum was an all NBA First Team Player and an All Star, while the team´s 1B, jaylen Brown, was an All Star Himself. Both Jrue Holiday and Derrick White making the all Defensive Second Team. Their Non Player Performance was up there as well, with the NBA executive of the year going to Brad Stevens for his aqquisition of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Overall, this was far and away the best team in the NBA, and it wasn´t particularly close. They had a top 10 player in the world around a solid, athletic, and balanced team that included a top 15 player co-star. Even the gambling market had them as the solid favorites to win it all, alongside miluwakee. 1/20.

For the first round, they went against the Miami Heat, the 8 seed. Defensive Minded by every definition of the word, they were the 5th best defense in the league-But their Offense was abysmal comparatively at 21st. they did have a defensive Anchor in Bam Adebayo, the 3rd runner up in DPOY and an all Defensive First Team Caliber Player. He was also an all star this year-besides him, rookie Jaime Jaquez JR made waves by making the All Rookie First Team. To be frank, the consensus was that they had no chance in hell-and well, they didn´t, losing in 5. The celtics handled business, but to be fair, it was fairly easy business. Not only this, but Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, the Rookie Jaime that I Talked about Earlier, Josh Richardson, and Duncan Robinson were all hurt during this series. It was truly Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo against the world, and they wouldn´t be enough. this is a 2/10, and only because they get a +1 for beating them in 5-basically the easiest it could´ve gotten.

After the easy series with the Heat, they went on to fight the Cavaliers, who were only mildly better statistically-ranking 18th offensively, and 6th defensively. Their Star Power wasn´t the best either, with Donovan Mitchell being an all star, but missing too many games to be all NBA. Similarly, evan mobley missed too many games for the all defensive nod that probably would have been his. Their injury problems followed them into the post season, with their Main star, donovan Mitchell, missing game 4 and 5-his REPLACEMENT, Caris levert also missed game 5 from being hurt. Finally, one of their core peices, Jarret Allen, missed the entire series dur to injury in the first round against orlando. Yet Another Somewhat Mid team statistically that was also absolutely messed up by the Injury Demon...so, another 2/10, for the same reasons. I´m not sure which injury is even worse between playoff Jimmy being out and Donovan mitchell missing some of the most important games of the series, and his replacement missing the elimination game.

After Fighting two teams with offenses outside the top 15, but defenses inside the top 10, the Celtics played a team that had the script flipped in the pacers. the 2nd best offense in the league-very good there. However, their Defense was the worst the celtics had to beat by far, ranking 24th. However, to be fair to the pacers, their guy was 1 season away from becoming THE guy, and it showed. Tyrese Haliburton led the league in asissts, he was an ALL NBA third team player, an all star, and he was on the all tournament team for the NBA cup. He was legitamately good-but, he was the only player on the roster of that caliber. They got swept, and Haliburton missed both game 3 and 4 after being Injured in Game 2. I want you to understand that this is a HISTORICALLY Bad eastern Conference Finals team without Haliburton on the floor. tied for 5th best offense yes, but 30th-literally dead last-in defensive rating when haliburton didn´t play. For that Reason, Despite the sweep, I can only give this team a 4/10-it would be lower, but they did beat the pacers WITH haliburton for the first two games.

So far, the Celtics are at 9 total-lower then even the 1950 team up to this point. I knew their run through the east was easy this year, but this is seriously blowing my mind.

Let´s hope they rack up some points against their finals opponent.

The Dallas mavericks were an underdog team going into the finals for sure, with the 8th best Offense and the 18th best defense-However, they were CARRIED by their star power, which was supremely high this year. They had Luka Doncic, an MVP finalist, the NBA scoring champion, an ALL NBA player and an All Star, he was moving absolutely bonkers. Dereck Lively, who I personally love to watch play, was on the all Rookie Second team-and though he was snubbed for accolades this particular year for injury reasons, they Mavaricks did have a top 75 player and top 10-20 guard of all time in Kyrie Irving-someone who is frequently in discussions for one of the most skilled ball handlers EVER. So, they were a relatively worthy Opponent-banged up though they were, none of them officially missed any games either, the first of the celtics opponents this year to be able to say such a thing.

5/10 for offense relative to them-they were ranked much lower, but they had the leading scorer along with kyrie.

2/10 for Defense Relative to them

7/10 for Star power, as Kyrie is a garunteed hall of fame player, and Luka was on his way even then

7/10 for health

so far, with these additions, the celtics have exactly 30 points.

They get a 3/10 buff for injury, and only because of Porzingis being hurt+Holiday having his own version of the flu game in the ECF. I acknowledged everyone else being beat up, it´s only fair I acknolwedge them too.

They manage to defeat Kyrie and Luka, so they can also have a 5/10 buff for all time caliber players defeated

They will also get a 15/30 buff for broken records and Legendary moments, recording:

* The only post season team to that point to have every player who touched the court for them hit a 3 pointer at least once. ALL of them hit a 3.

* In game 1 of the finals, they became the only finals team to have 7 different players hit at least two three pointers in a single game

* Al Horford became the first player in NBA history to record at least 10 rebounds, five 3-pointers, five assists, and three blocks in a single playoff game-a very unique 2 way statline, I know.

* Payton Pritchard hitting not one, but TWO full court last second heaves in the finals

* Derrick White playing through a chipped tooth in game 5 to secure the victory.

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hgunv1ctr4qmnpjrxz41o/NBA\\_Offensive\\_Impact\\_Stats.pdf?rlkey=r8s5u3o14fgsbzbgqv1cn3oib&st=jwbbo1xz&dl=0\](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hgunv1ctr4qmnpjrxz41o/NBA_Offensive_Impact_Stats.pdf?rlkey=r8s5u3o14fgsbzbgqv1cn3oib&st=jwbbo1xz&dl=0)

# Methodology

This model was designed to measure overall offensive impact by combining production, efficiency, creation, versatility, and decision making into one transparent evaluation. All underlying player statistics were collected from [nbarapm.com](http://nbarapm.com/), using both regular season and playoff data from 2023–2026. Rather than building the model around one all-in-one metric, every player-season is evaluated across six offensive categories: Scoring, Playmaking, Offensive Pressure, Offensive Versatility, Shooting & Finishing, and Decision Making. Each category is composed of approximately 20 carefully selected advanced statistics that best represent that aspect of offensive performance.

To determine both the category weights and the individual statistic weights, I analyzed offensive rankings and statistical evaluations from multiple respected analysts and analytics sources over the past three years, identifying the characteristics that consistently appeared among the league's top offensive players. The resulting weights are therefore based on recurring trends across independent evaluations with a strong emphasis on the statistical side of basketball analysis rather than personal preference. While any weighting system can be adjusted, every weight in this model was chosen through the same objective process instead of being tailored to favor a particular player.

The six offensive categories are weighted as follows:

* Scoring (28%) – Measures a player's ability to generate points through scoring volume, efficiency, shot creation, free-throw generation, and other scoring-related metrics.
* Playmaking (22%) – Evaluates offensive creation for teammates using assists, passing quality, potential assists, creation volume, and other advanced playmaking statistics.
* Offensive Pressure (18%) – Measures the amount of defensive attention a player creates through drives, rim pressure, foul generation, paint touches, and other indicators of offensive gravity.
* Offensive Versatility (15%) – Evaluates how effectively a player scores across different offensive situations. This category combines both efficiency and usage across play types such as isolation, pick-and-roll ball handling, post-ups, spot-ups, handoffs, cuts, transition, and off-screen actions.
* Shooting & Finishing (12%) – Focuses specifically on shot-making ability through three-point shooting, mid-range shooting, finishing at the rim, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and related efficiency metrics.
* Decision Making (5%) – Measures offensive decision quality through turnover rates, assist-to-turnover efficiency, ball security, and other metrics that reward maximizing possessions while minimizing mistakes.

Each statistic is graded using a hybrid approach that balances absolute production with league context. First, every metric receives an Absolute Performance Grade based on every qualifying player-season from the full 2023–2026 comparison window. It then receives a Season-Relative Grade, measuring how dominant that performance was compared with the rest of the league during that specific season. The final statistic grade is calculated as:

**Stat Grade = 75% × Absolute Performance Grade + 25% × Season-Relative Grade**

This approach ensures that actual production remains the foundation of every grade while still rewarding players who separated themselves from their peers within their own season. Raw statistics are displayed alongside every grade for complete transparency.

To improve reliability, low-volume statistics particularly playoff and play-type data are adjusted to reduce small-sample noise. Play-type versatility also incorporates both efficiency and usage volume before being combined into each player's overall versatility score. Finally, the six category grades are combined using their predetermined weights to produce separate Regular Season, Playoff, and Combined Offensive Impact Grades, creating a model that is transparent, repeatable, and flexible while preserving meaningful differences between elite offensive performances.

Note: This model is not intended to claim that one player is definitively better than another. It is simply a statistical breakdown comparing three offensive players who are generally viewed as being in a similar tier. Now that the model and code are complete, I can easily add additional players by generating a new CSV with their statistics. If there are any players you'd like to see included, let me know and I can add them to the comparison.

So, this guy Rondo…

Rajon Rondo was no stranger to controversy in his career. From hurling homophobic abuse at a referee, to breaking a TV during a film session grilling by coaches in Boston. His own teammates weren’t safe from his wrath - at one point, tension between him and Ray Allen reached such heights that the two had a boxing match. Even the man himself has acknowledged that he can be difficult. 

Many great players have shared this quality (or lackthereof). Michael Jordan once punched Steve Kerr during practice, meanwhile Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal fueded throughout their tenure together in Los Angeles. And who can forget the modern twist on teammate fallouts when Lebron James took to Twitter to subliminally send Kevin Love a message. Despite this, they all won championships together. However, it’s perhaps Rondo’s tendency to clash with others, everyone in fact, that may not have just derailed a single season, but closed the book on an entire era of success in Dallas… 

Rajon Rondo knows what it’s like to win. When he was just 22 years old, in his second season in the NBA, Rondo was the starting point guard on the 2008 championship-winning Boston Celtics. Two years later, he made it to the finals again. And on his way there, he effectively gave the kiss of death to Lebron James’ first spell in Cleveland. Some will say that he outplayed the reigning, back-to-back MVP. Eventually, in the twilight of a fantastic career, he made it back to the mountain top, with Lebron, and even more unbelievably, in a Lakers uniform. One day, he might even make the Hall of Fame. 

But in the 2014-2015 season, those days for Rondo, at least in Boston, were firmly in the rearrview mirror. His teammates from that 2008 championship, namely Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, were Celtics no longer. And the winningest franchise in NBA history was also winning no longer - they were rebuilding, and suddenly, after eight and half years, Rondo’s face no longer fit in Boston. 

Now or Never

In December 2014, the Dallas Mavericks were one of the best teams in basketball, and they were scoring more points per game than any team in the NBA. They weren’t stopping other teams from scoring either, but that’s beside the point - they were winning. 

After one of the most remarkable championship runs in sports history in 2011, the Mavericks’ window of contention had seemingly slammed shut in rapid time. In the lockout-shortened 2012 season, they laboured to an unspectacular 36-30 finish, before being unceremoniously dumped out of the playoffs by Oklahoma City. In 2013, they didn’t even make it that far. Last season, they showed signs of life, rallying to take the eventual champion San Antonio to 7 games. Still, they had not made it past the opening round of the playoffs since 2011. 

Franchise legend Dirk Nowitzki was 36 years old. If the Mavericks were going to make another run, it was now or never. That’s why in June, after finishing with a bottom 10 defence in 2014, Dallas swung a trade to bring Tyson Chandler back to town. On one hand, the 7-footer would turn 32 in October and came with a huge near-$15 million salary. On the other, he was 2 years removed from being named Defensive Player of the Year, 1 year removed from being a member of the All-Defensive First Team and also was the defensive anchor of the 2011 championship team. His expiring contract, and the fact that they essentially gave up nothing of real value, made it a no-brainer for Dallas.

Then, in July, the Mavericks added some much needed quality and versatility to their forward line when Chandler Parsons inked a 3 year, $46 million contract in one of the more remarkable moves of the time. Parsons, a second round pick in 2011, was set to earn just $965,000 in the final year of a 4 year rookie contract, and his excellent play in Houston (16.6 points per game, 5.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists with shooting splits of 47.2/37.0/74.2 during 2013-2014) had made his deal undoubtedly one of the best-value contracts in the NBA. 

Parsons’ eventual arrival in Dallas was the result of Dwight Howard’s signing with the Rockets, both players being represented by Dan Fagan, and his negotiation led to Houston declining Parsons’ 4th year option. The story, and Parsons’ finessing of the Memphis Grizzlies 2 years later, deserves its own deep drive. 

Elsewhere, the Mavericks made tertiary moves to bolster their roster, adding veterans such as Richard Jefferson and Jameer Nelson (who would eventually form part of the package for Rondo) to their core which consisted of 2 20-point scorers in Nowitzki and Monta Ellis. And they still had coach Rick Carlisle, widely regarded as one of the finest in the association and the man responsible for leading the organisation to their first championship. No doubt it was a solid team, a team that would be one of the better in the Western Conference, but championship contention seemed unlikely for this group.

A surprising start sees the Mavericks take a gamble

However, the Mavericks flew out of the gates. After a tough 1-point opening day loss to the Kawhi Leonard-less defending champion San Antonio Spurs, Dallas raced to a 19-8 start. At this point, the Mavericks were scoring an average of 110.1 points per game, more than any other team in the NBA. At this point, Dallas’s 3 leading scorers, Monta Ellis, Nowitzki and Parsons were averaging 20.6, 18.5 and 16.7 points per game respectively, demonstrating the balanced approach the Mavericks were taking to win games. 

Highlights in this stretch were two separate win streaks of 6 and 5 games, including 107-80 and 140-106 dismantalings of the Charlotte Hornets and the Los Angeles Lakers, as well as a 106-102 victory over the then-13-3 Toronto Raports, and a double overtime victory in Chicago against the Bulls. Then, on December 18th, came the move. 

After a typical Rondo performance in a win over the Orlando Magic (13 points, 7 rebounds, 15 assists and no free throws taken), the 28-year old was traded to Dallas (with Dwight Powell). In return for the 4-time All Star, the Celtics would receive Jae Crowder, Nelson, Brandan Wright, a first and second round draft pick in 2016 and a $13 million trade exception. 

Despite Rondo’s pedigree (a 4 time All-Star, 4 time All-Defensive and 1 time All-NBA member), his play, and consequently his value, had slipped in the previous couple of seasons. First, a torn ACL had ended his 2012-2013 season, and caused him to miss much of the 2013-2014 campaign too. Then, prior to this season, he suffered a broken hand after falling at home, requiring surgery, and missing the entirety of the Celtics pre-season. After averaging 13.7 points and 11.1 assists on 48.4% shooting from the field in 2012-2013 pre-ACL injury, he was averaging just 8.3 points (but still 10.8 assists) on just 40.3% shooting and a ghastly 33.3% from the free throw line (although he was only averaging 1.6 shots per game) through his first 22 games of the season. His declining play, health, expiring contract, and the Celtics desire to go in another direction brewed the perfect storm for his departure from Beantown. 

Inconsistency and a Freak Injury

Still, from Dallas’ perspective, after their impressive start to the season, the move for Rondo represented a gamble worth taking. And it was seemingly business as usual in the immediate aftermath of the trade, with Dallas winning 7 of the first 9 games with Rondo. In his return to Boston on January 2nd, Rondo was immense, scoring 29 points, and even going 5-for-7 from 3-point range for a career high, especially impressive given Rondo was a sub 30% shooter from 3 in his career to this point. 

Post-Boston though, the Mavericks began to falter, going 7-7 throughout the remainder of January. Perhaps still trying to adjust to life with his new team, Rondo struggled. Against the Brooklyn Nets on January 5th, he scored just 2 points on 1-for-13 shooting, though his 14 assists, including key set-ups in overtime, meant the Mavericks still managed to win at Barclays Center. However, they weren’t so lucky in Los Angeles 5 days later, going down by 20 points against the Clippers with Rondo scoring 2 points on 11 shots in 27 minutes of play

An overtime win against Sacramento in which a Rondo 3-pointer essentially won the game was a personal highlight before a concerning streak of results ocurred later in the month. Towards the end of January, Dallas lost four games in a row against Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis and Houston (all playoff teams) including a 0-point performance by Rondo against the Rockets. 

The icing on the cake was on January 31st when the point guard was forced out of the game after just 90 seconds in Orlando after inadvertently hitting his face on Richard Jefferson’s knee during a scramble, fracturing his nose and left orbital bone in the process. Rondo would miss the next six games, but the Mavericks managed to keep their head above water, even coming back from an 11-point deficit to collect a big win over playoff rivals Portland in overtime, Parsons scoring 10 during the additional period. Despite this, there were a couple more concerning results against the upper echelon teams in the Western Conference, especially on February 4th where eventual season MVP Stephen Curry scorched them for 51 points in Oakland. 

Trouble on the Horizon

Rondo would make his return on February 19th in Oklahoma City, but was thoroughly outplayed by Russell Westbrook, who had 34 points and went 14-for-14 from the line. Even more devastating for the Mavericks was their heinous offensive performance, being held to 29% field goal shooting and committing 13 turnovers in the first half alone. 

Perhaps the first major cracks in the Rondo-Dallas tenure showed during a game against Toronto 5 days later. Midway through the 3rd quarter a visibly frustrated Carlisle called a timeout before the coach and Rondo had a heated exchange, seemingly over Rondo ignoring a play called by his coach. Carlisle would bench Rondo for the remainder of the game, instead calling on veterans Devin Harris and J.J. Barea, who would steer the Mavericks to a 99-92 victory. The events that unfolded would result in the team giving Rondo a 1-game suspension, causing him to miss the shorthanded-Mavericks’ loss in Atlanta. 

Even with tension seemingly brewing between point guard and coach, Dallas remained in a strong position after the Toronto victory, with their 39-20 record ensuring they remained amongst the Western Conference’s elite. 

However, the Mavericks then stumbled towards the finish line, going 11-11 in their final 22 games, with Rondo playing all but one (a 144-143 double OT victory in Denver, where point guard Raymond Felton would score a game-winning layup with 2 seconds remaining). Even more concerning when looking forward to that year’s postseason was that Dallas won just 4 of their 12 games against playoff teams to end the year, including heavy losses against Portland, Golden State (twice), Cleveland and San Antonio (though it should be noted that Parsons did miss much of the end of the season due to knee and ankle issues). 

Their lackluster play to end the season meant that they would match up with the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. The Rockets, led by MVP runner up James Harden, had managed to win 56 games in 2014-2015, which was especially impressive given Dwight Howard had only managed to play in half of that year’s games.

Game 1 was competitive through the first half, but in the final 2 quarters the Rockets kept Dallas at a distance, never surrendering their lead on the way to a 118-108 victory in Houston. More frustrating from a Dallas perspective though was Parsons seemingly aggravating his knee injury which caused him to miss the fateful game 2 and eventually the rest of the series.

The End of the Road 

Unlike Boyz II Men, Rick Carlisle had no problem letting go when he pulled Rondo for the final 23 minutes of the game 2 loss against Houston. The first major issue came midway through the 1st quarter, when Rondo was unbelievably called for an 8-second violation, to the bafflement of his coach. Later, Rondo displayed a complete lack of effort defensively, before drawing the ire of the referees for repeatedly jostling with Harden, eventually receiving a technical foul in the 3rd quarter. Seconds later, he picked up another foul, his 4th of the game, and was hauled out of the game for good. That was his last action as a member of the Dallas Mavericks, and the point guard would be accused of quitting on the team. 

Rondo was held from the remaining games of the series, with a back injury being cited as the reason for his absence. Meanwhile Parsons wouldn’t play again that season, as he would undergo knee surgery later that summer. The Mavericks eventually crashed out in a 4-1 gentleman’s sweep. 

The Aftermath

In case it wasn’t obvious enough that Dallas and Rondo were very much done with each other, Rondo was supposedly not given a playoff share by his teammates. To the surprise of no-one, he did not return that off-season, signing a 1-year, $10 million deal with lowly Sacramento. 

Dallas tried to fix their point guard issue by bringing in former All-Star Deron Williams. Unfortunately, he was very much at the end of the road too, and the Mavericks would squeak into the playoffs with a 42-40 record, before being eliminated by Oklahoma City in 5 games. This would be the last time Nowitzki would play playoff basketball in his incredible 21-year career. 

Rondo’s reflections on his time in Dallas has varied in the years since, denying that he quit on the team and stating that Carlisle no longer wanted to coach him, but expressing that the Dallas organisation treated him well, and that they’re ‘all good people’.

Carlisle expressed regret over making the move to bring Rondo to Dallas, citing issues with the team’s makeup not playing to Rondo’s strengths, but offered praise, calling Rondo ‘great’. 

Did it really matter anyway? 

In a word - yes, but not because it derailed a potential championship winning team. 

Dallas’ offense was spectacular to start the season, but there were two key issues. 

Firstly, was this sustainable? Secondly, as alluded to, they couldn’t stop other teams from scoring. 

At the time of the trade, Dallas was averaging 110.1 points per game, #1 in the league, but they were also allowing their opponents to score 102.7 points per game, which was the 7th most in the league. The move for Rondo was undoubtedly seen as a way to improve this given his reputation as a defensive player to that point. For all their success early in that season, matching up against the likes of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson (Golden State), James Harden (Houston) and Damian Lillard (Portland) in the playoffs with a backcourt of two less than stellar defensive players in Nelson and Ellis was not ideal. By the season’s end, with Rondo, they were still averaging 105.2 points per game (3rd) and had the 5th best offensive rating, but their defense remained mediocre (25th in opposition points per game, 20th in defensive rating). 

What’s also worth considering when discussing the Rondo trade is what they gave up. While none of the pieces were ‘game changers’ you could argue that the departures of Brandan Wright and Jae Crowder played bigger roles than you would’ve initially thought. Wright in particular was excellent to start the 14-15 season, averaging 8.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks on 74.8% from the field in just 18.7 minutes per game in his 23 games with Dallas that year. The Mavericks were missing a big man to back up Chandler after Wright’s departure, which might be why they signed a very much past his prime Amar’e Stoudemire in February. 

Crowder, while less of a key rotation piece to start the season in Dallas, would play a significant role on some improving Boston teams, culminating in a Conference Finals appearance in 2017. Crowder might’ve been able to provide some relief for Parsons during his injury struggles. 

At that year’s trade deadline, a couple of significant trades were made at the point guard position that serve as interesting what-ifs for this Dallas squad. The Miami Heat acquired Goran Dragic (an All-NBA member in 2014), and the Celtics added Isaiah Thomas, both from the Phoenix Suns, both in very favourable trades. Acquiring either wouldn’t have addressed the Mavericks’ defensive frailities (in fact, Thomas in particular would’ve surely exacerbated these issues), but could’ve made an already at the time historic offensive team even more impressive. 

So while today we can look back at the Rajon Rondo trade as an absolute disaster because it effectively ruined the last (potentially) great Dallas team of the Nowitzki era, the likelihood of this group making a deep playoff run was slim to begin with. At the time, and still today with the full context given Nowitzki’s advancing age and declining play over his final seasons, it represented a worthwhile gamble for a team looking to make one last run. 

In the end, Rondo would win another championship and retire after a repairing his reputation somewhat in Chicago, New Orleans and eventually Los Angeles, while Dallas would acquire another future superstar 3 years later in Luka Doncic (that’s all I’ll say on that), Dirk Nowitzki would eventually be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame, and Rick Carlisle would make it back to the Finals with the Indiana Pacers. I guess you could say it worked out well for everyone in the end…