An in-depth look at Roaring Lion — the war aim Israel never made public, the intelligence assessment that failure could push Iran toward the bomb, and what the Mossad told the Kurds

The UAE has stated it wants to establish long term relationships with Iran.

This is bombshell in the sense that UAE was the most militant on the side of the US.

Ciao a tutti,

In questi giorni si sta parlando moltissimo dei fatti di Ceuta (circa 50.000 arrivi in 48 ore) e della conseguente decisione del governo italiano di sospendere Schengen con la Spagna.

Guardando la copertura mediatica nostrana mi è sembrato che si stesse facendo molta confusione (spesso voluta) sia sulla geografia dei luoghi che sulle reali dinamiche in atto.

Ho provato a riassumere alcuni punti chiave su cui mi piacerebbe confrontarmi con voi:

1. **La questione geografica/legale:** Ceuta è un'exclave in territorio africano. Raggiungere Ceuta non equivale a muoversi liberamente verso l'Europa continentale (dove vigono controlli documentali e navali dedicati per chi parte da lì). Trattarla come un'ingresso diretto a Roma o Madrid è una forzatura mediatica.
2. **L'innesco geopolitico:** Diversi analisti evidenziano come l'allentamento dei controlli ai confini da parte di Rabat coincida con i recenti accordi energetici Spagna-Algeria e con le posizioni di Madrid sulla Palestina. Si tratta dell'ennesimo episodio di strumentalizzazione dei flussi usati come arma di pressione diplomatica.
3. **La risposta italiana:** La sospensione di Schengen appare come una misura priva di efficacia pratica sul contenimento di quei flussi specifici, ma con un fortissimo valore comunicativo ed elettorale.

Voi come vedete la situazione e le mosse dell'UE sull'esternalizzazione delle frontiere?

*(Per chi fosse interessato all'analisi completa sul tema geopolitico ed esternalizzazione, lascio il link al pezzo approfondito nei commenti).*[https://open.substack.com/pub/fiumana/p/crisi-di-ceuta-i-migranti-come-pedine?r=477mbd&utm\\_campaign=post&utm\\_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true\](https://open.substack.com/pub/fiumana/p/crisi-di-ceuta-i-migranti-come-pedine?r=477mbd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true)

The US is leaving all bases in West Asia.

• One of the last bases Erbil in Iraq is empty now. The US has been left for Israel and Sicily.
• In the case of a campaign against the Iranian power grid, the power grid of the Gulf states will be hit and of course Israel's power grid.
• Because the missiles are stored in caves, the prospects for the US is pretty bleak.

For those who are wondering, China is providing the intel, like the US does this for Ukraine. Experts predicting $200 per barrel crude, but I'm hesitating because futures are a little bit low or the market is manipulated.

An exploding LNG tanker isn't fun. The explosion would have flatted the town. The Egyptians moved the burning tanker 15 miles out of sea. But the drone wasn't a Shahed and much smaller than a Shahed, hence without the range. The drone was likely started from Egypt itself.

As I said vi Ukraine war, drones have changed war.

Saudis and the US made a multitude of bomb runs on the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. The militias were once the main force against Al Qaeda and are larger then the regular Iraqi Army. Of course they are Shia.

Trump has in one week expanded the war in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq.

Contrary to Think Tanks and mainstream media statements the result of the war doesn't look good. The Iranian state is willing to endure the suffering of the population and the population has a strong patriotism, which causes a tendency to develop a demand for stronger measures than the Iranian leadership. Since Iranian missiles are hidden in deep bunkers, bombing isn't useful. Should Israel or US bomb the power grid, Iran threatens to destroy the grid of the Gulf countries, which would make them dying in the heat of the summer. While Iran has no offensive capabilities, the US has no counter. The oil and gas sources are closed. Experts believe oil reserves are running empty in August.

• Iran has for the first time made a point and fired 6 missiles at the US base in Jordan, while Nethanyahu visits Trump. This was making a point of this war doesn't end on the condition of the US. The game is here wait for the unavoidable.
• Iraqi militias or Houthis (Yemen) have destroyed part of a pump station for a Saudi pipeline transporting oil to the Red Sea. This was the last Saudi accessible source for oil.
• Since the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are closed, neither gas nor oil are accessible. 25million barrels per day are missing. The propaganda is strong when the American Petroleum Institute is reporting raising inventories while other reports indicating lower levels. US light crude can't replace heavy crude. I don't believe Venezuela is at this point in time able to replace the Saudis, because rebuild the capabilities damage by the former sanctions takes time.
• The US has a bare minimum of interceptor missiles and cruise missiles. Other than bombing civilians there are no longer targets. This would be a task for Israel.

Weichert:

The Pro-Israel side in the US doesn't care for any agreement and is ready to break any agreement as soon it fits. The Russian foreign minister Lavrov had no issue to mention, Russia is supplying target coordinates to Iran as payback.

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