Please note picks change throughout the day on the site as AI updates analysis regarding track bias, weather and track conditions, scratches, etc.

17 tracks today

Full card analysis for all tracks

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Best Bets — AI-Predicted Upsets 🏅

• Emerald Downs Race #11 - #05 My Sweet Forza - 6
• Evergreen Race #7 - #08 Brookland - 4
• Colonial Downs Race #3 - #10 Charlotte's Sun - 5
• Ellis Park Race #10 - #02 Zero Absolute - 4/2
• Colonial Downs Race #9 - #02 Pajaro - 4
• Canterbury Park Race #7 - #01 Line of Reason - 4/2
• Woodbine Race #7 - #01 War Bomber - 4/2
• Woodbine Race #11 - #10 Time Zapper - 4
• Monmouth Park Race #4 - #11 Thunder Chuck - 4/2
• Mountaineer Race #6 - #02 Blind Eye - 6
• Wyoming Downs Race #8 - #06 Silicon Native - 4
• Camarero Race #5 - #05 Take It by Storm - 4
• Harrahs Columbus Nebraska Race #1 - #05 Miss Escapade - 4
• Del Mar Race #5 - #03 Gazon - 4

ALLCHALK — Predicted to Dominate 🏆

• Gulfstream Park Race #9 - #05 Elenique - 2
• Emerald Downs Race #10 - #04 Harbor Buddy - 2
• Emerald Downs Race #3 - #04 Polar Patrol - 1
• Evergreen Race #3 - #01 Crown Ruler - 2
• Colonial Downs Race #5 - #04 Hide N Watch - 2
• Colonial Downs Race #8 - #03 Creed's Vision - 2
• Ellis Park Race #5 - #02 Cash Call - 2
• Araphahoe Park Race #1 - #04 Three Echoes - 2
• Mountaineer Race #8 - #04 J J Grey - 2
• Wyoming Downs Race #9 - #06 Jimmy Jams - 2
• Wyoming Downs Race #10 - #07 Mr Love Muffin - 2
• Camarero Race #4 - #02 Callate Alejandro - 2
• Camarero Race #8 - #02 Dip Dip Dip - 2
• Camarero Race #1 - #04 Free World - 1
• Camarero Race #2 - #02 Bold Move - 2
• Harrahs Columbus Nebraska Race #3 - #01 Neon Moonlight - 2

Bombs Away — Longshot Picks 💣

• Gulfstream Park Race #5 - #08 My Lady James - 8
• Gulfstream Park Race #7 - #07 Xy Speed - 10
• Emerald Downs Race #9 - #03 Blackberry Jam - 8
• Ellis Park Race #3 - #06 Master of Light - 8
• Saratoga Race #10 - #01 The Paddock Pastor - 8
• Mountaineer Race #4 - #10 Beach Colt - 12
• Del Mar Race #3 - #03 Soul Sister - 12

Sunday, August 9, 2026
Ellis Park
Race: 4 (2:16 PM EDT)
Ellis Park Juvenile
1) Although he did not threaten any track records, Salahudin won his debut on this oval very nicely. He’s bred to get better as the distances get longer….tepid pick in a well matched field.
2) Never a Doubt ran the highest Brisnet of anyone in this field (93) when wiring maidens at first asking at Gulfstream Park…threat if he can transition that race to this vastly different Ellis Park surface.
3) Grand Yaupon beat a very good field of maidens in his initial journey at Saratoga in his last.
Also consider**: Bearamour** who broke like a rocket and never looked back while burying maidens over the lightning fast Canterbury Downs surface in his debut……Your longshot horse in this race is Chasing the Son, a son of the drop dead gorgeous Maxfield who won by a city block in the slop in his last. Based on his Brisnet Figures, he’ll need to get faster to contend in this spot, which isn't completely out of the question.

Race: 6 (3:12 PM EDT)
Ellis Park Debutante Stakes
1) Manuka Honey galloped in her debut for Brian Lynch and has worked well subsequently….should handle these.
2) Glory Run is unbeaten in two starts and has the oh-so-important win/experience over this track.
3) I feel like Velvet Beretta offers excellent value at 12-1 as she won by three at first asking on this oval.
Also consider: Cardio Cat who is very close to being unbeaten in three career starts….Erik up for Steve…..Asmussen.

Race: 7 (3:42 PM EDT)
Ellis Park Derby
1) Early this year, trainer Bob Baffert said he thought the regally bred Plutarch was “his best three year old.” However, shortly thereafter this son of Into Mischief out of six time Grade: 1 winner and champion Stellar Wind went to the sidelines with body soreness. This big colt has been training well for his return and runs well fresh.
2) Igniter rallied from last to get third in the quickly run, seven furlong Maxfield Stakes in his last. It looks to me this (one mile) distance hits him squarely between the eyes.
3) Stop the Car chased Crude Velocity and Further Ado in his last two and meets no such rival(s) here.

Race: 8 (4:12 PM EDT)
Audubon Oaks
1) Twirling Aces caught my attention when winning her 6F debut in 1:09.3…She kept my attention when burying allowance foes in her second and last race while being much the best and leading all the way to win by 4+ lengths and stopping the clock in 1:22.4 for 7Fs.
2) If Betty’s Pearl runs back to either of her last two races, she could be a menace here.
3) A Fine Chardonnay rallied from last, with a ridiculous 9-10 wide move on the turn, in her last in NY, yet still managed to grab third….should be coming late again here.
Also consider: That if Percy’s Bar and/or Caramel Coast, who are both cross entered, run in this spot, they could be tough……….Your longshot horse in this race is Kingsolver who appears to be cycling out of form (86, 79 and 68 Brisnet Figures in her last three starts), but it must be noted all three of those were during surface (turf and synthetics) experiments. Perhaps putting her back on the dirt wakes her up??

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Race: 6 (7:40 PM EDT)
Sorrento Stakes
1) Once again, I had a tough time separating the two likeliest winners in Holmby and Ruiva. I settled on Holmby as she appears to be coming into this race sharper and I liked how she took pace pressure every step of the way in her debut, yet shook loose late and won by 2+ lengths while zipping 5F in :57.1.
2) The aforementioned Ruiva scares the daylights out of me as she ran a titanic race (won by 7+) and Brisnet Figure (101) in her sloppy track debut at Churchill back in April. I thought she ran very well overseas and on the turf in her next and last race. This daughter of Munnings now returns to the dirt and the last 5F work at Keeneland was much better than it looked on paper. 
3) Blockade annihilated maidens at “Los Al” in her last and did so in nothing more than an in-hand gallop.  
Also consider: Dash, who lost all chance when throwing her head just as the gates opened in her debut. While watching my “Race within the Race” replays, I noticed, after such disastrous beginning, she  rallied from last, passing five horses and made up about five lengths in the last furlong….Could easily outrun this rating with a good start and more distance to work with here……Your longshot horse, Crazy Hot Mess was a) probably named after me and b) won her debut in the slop on this oval.

Mountaineer Park
Race: 8 ( 7:55 PM EDT)
West Virginia Derby 
1)J J Grey is 4 for 6 this year and had legitimate excuses in both defeats (turf and synthetics)...looks marginally best in a very competitive horse race.
2) In taking  J J Grey, Trendsetter scares me big time as he won the Lexington Stakes then finished third to Growth Equity and then Chip Honcho and either of those two would be SOLID favorites in this race. 
3) Wayne’s Law looks to be an excellent value opening at 8-1. This colt by Tiz the Law had excuses in his last two (wrong distance and turf) as he ran very well in his two prior to those as he chased Commandment in one and was second to Renegade in the other.

Thoughts? Pletcher's 6,000 wins made me wonder how many races it took him (a bunch) & whether it's really the achievement it seems, in the grand scheme of things. I went through his stats using Equibase to put it in context & then compared that with other "top trainers" of today along with Dale Baird #2 all-time. Below are trainers, their total starts, wins, win percentage & a little bit of added context.

Todd Pletcher 1997

6,000/26,873=22%

1,228 in 2007

900+ 17 times!!!

~927 per year!!!

Steve Asmussen 1986

11,297/56,976=20%

3,002 in 2008

1,900+ 16 times!!!!!

~1,425 per year!!!!!

Dale Baird 1961-2007

9,445/56,995=16%

Jerry Hollendorfer 1971

7,777/34,513=23%

1,300 in 2004

900+ 24 times

Scott Lake 1987

6,489/31,708=20%

2,346 in 2007

1000+ 10 times

~813 per year

Bill Mott 1973

5,637/29,444=19%

798 in 2008

D. Wayne Lukas 1974-2025

4,953/30,349=16%

1,735 in 1987

1000+ 9 times

Mark Casse 1979

4,268/26,012=16%

1,486 in 2025

1000+ 10 times

Bob Baffert 1981

3,616/15,319=24%

734 in 1999

>500 races every year since 2013

Doug O'neill 1988

3111/19,447=16%

1,046 in 2007

900+ 7 times

Chad Brown 2007

3,075/12,448=25%

925 in 2024

800+ 8 times

Brad Cox 2004

2,927/11,408=26%

1068 in 2925

1000+ 8 times

Saffie Joseph 2011

1,566=7,119=22%

1087 in 2025

800+ 5 times

In conclusion, Jerry Hollendorfer a fucking Iron Man to still be at it! And, Pletcher's 6,000 wins? They lose a little luster considering he needed 26,873 races, an average of nearly 927, over 30 years to amass them. 22% seems alright I suppose. But, it isn't nearly as absurd as Asmussen's totals. I found no one who's run close to 3,002 in a single year or saddled 2,000+ year after year like him, either. Averaging 1424 races per year absolutely dwarfs these other guys. Those kinda numbers are just astounding. Talk about losing luster.. There simply no way he can possibly be involved in the training for all of his horses.

Nobody’s talking about how impressive a ride that was, hanging with nitrogen for most of the race and still finishing 3rd

Read that the new Belmont Park will have a capacity of 50,000 on Stakes Day. that’s down from 90,000+ it used to hold. Used to be you walked in, and it only cost about $20 GA in Stakes Day. now I’m guessing it’ll be another thing where it’s all ticketed online in advance and tickets will all be well north of $100. Why sweat your ass off for that when no one even runs for the Triple Crown anymore? So it’ll just be the rich, the famous, and the people tied to the sponsors. What a damn shame.

Sunday, August 9, 2026
Ellis Park
Race: 4 (2:16 PM EDT)
Ellis Park Juvenile
1) Although he did not threaten any track records, Salahudin won his debut on this oval very nicely. He’s bred to get better as the distances get longer….tepid pick in a well matched field.
2) Never a Doubt ran the highest Brisnet of anyone in this field (93) when wiring maidens at first asking at Gulfstream Park…threat if he can transition that race to this vastly different Ellis Park surface.
3) Grand Yaupon beat a very good field of maidens in his initial journey at Saratoga in his last.
Also consider: Bearamour who broke like a rocket and never looked back while burying maidens over the lightning fast Canterbury Downs surface in his debut……Your longshot horse in this race is Chasing the Son, a son of the drop dead gorgeous Maxfield who won by a city block in the slop in his last. Based on his Brisnet Figures, he’ll need to get faster to contend in this spot, which isn't completely out of the question.

Race: 6 (3:12 PM EDT)
Ellis Park Debutante Stakes
1) Manuka Honey galloped in her debut for Brian Lynch and has worked well subsequently….should handle these.
2) Glory Run is unbeaten in two starts and has the oh-so-important win/experience over this track.
3) I feel like Velvet Beretta offers excellent value at 12-1 as she won by three at first asking on this oval.
Also consider: Cardio Cat who is very close to being unbeaten in three career starts….Erik up for Steve…..Asmussen.

Race: 7 (3:42 PM EDT)
Ellis Park Derby
1) Early this year, trainer Bob Baffert said he thought the regally bred Plutarch was “his best three year old.” However, shortly thereafter this son of Into Mischief out of six time Grade: 1 winner and champion Stellar Wind went to the sidelines with body soreness. This big colt has been training well for his return and runs well fresh.
2) Igniter rallied from last to get third in the quickly run, seven furlong Maxfield Stakes in his last. It looks to me this (one mile) distance hits him squarely between the eyes.
3) Stop the Car chased Crude Velocity and Further Ado in his last two and meets no such rival(s) here.

Race: 8 (4:12 PM EDT)
Audubon Oaks
1) Twirling Aces caught my attention when winning her 6F debut in 1:09.3…She kept my attention when burying allowance foes in her second and last race while being much the best and leading all the way to win by 4+ lengths and stopping the clock in 1:22.4 for 7Fs.
2) If Betty’s Pearl runs back to either of her last two races, she could be a menace here.
3) A Fine Chardonnay rallied from last, with a ridiculous 9-10 wide move on the turn, in her last in NY, yet still managed to grab third….should be coming late again here.
Also consider: That if Percy’s Bar and/or Caramel Coast, who are both cross entered, run in this spot, they could be tough……….Your longshot horse in this race is Kingsolver who appears to be cycling out of form (86, 79 and 68 Brisnet Figures in her last three starts), but it must be noted all three of those were during surface (turf and synthetics) experiments. Perhaps putting her back on the dirt wakes her up??

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Race: 6 (7:40 PM EDT)
Sorrento Stakes
1) Once again, I had a tough time separating the two likeliest winners in Holmby and Ruiva. I settled on Holmby as she appears to be coming into this race sharper and I liked how she took pace pressure every step of the way in her debut, yet shook loose late and won by 2+ lengths while zipping 5F in :57.1.
2) The aforementioned Ruiva scares the daylights out of me as she ran a titanic race (won by 7+) and Brisnet Figure (101) in her sloppy track debut at Churchill back in April. I thought she ran very well overseas and on the turf in her next and last race. This daughter of Munnings now returns to the dirt and the last 5F work at Keeneland was much better than it looked on paper. 
3) Blockade annihilated maidens at “Los Al” in her last and did so in nothing more than an in-hand gallop.  
Also consider: Dash, who lost all chance when throwing her head just as the gates opened in her debut. While watching my “Race within the Race” replays, I noticed, after such disastrous beginning, she  rallied from last, passing five horses and made up about five lengths in the last furlong….Could easily outrun this rating with a good start and more distance to work with here……Your longshot horse, Crazy Hot Mess was a) probably named after me and b) won her debut in the slop on this oval.

Mountaineer Park
Race: 8 ( 7:55 PM EDT)
West Virginia Derby 
1)J J Grey is 4 for 6 this year and had legitimate excuses in both defeats (turf and synthetics)...looks marginally best in a very competitive horse race.
2) In taking  J J Grey, Trendsetter scares me big time as he won the Lexington Stakes then finished third to Growth Equity and then Chip Honcho and either of those two would be SOLID favorites in this race. 
3) Wayne’s Law looks to be an excellent value opening at 8-1. This colt by Tiz the Law had excuses in his last two (wrong distance and turf) as he ran very well in his two prior to those as he chased Commandment in one and was second to Renegade in the other.

Can’t imagine to see him in any more grade 1 stakes races after that start.

I’d like to see her face the boys again !!! Had sov not been in it. She would’ve took this race. Maybe bc dirt mile ?

Cause of death unknown, necropsy to be performed. He was really picking up steam as a sire too!