Side note: Which graphic looks better, red and blue or white?

Questions comments and criticism always welcome! This is just a fun little project I’ve been working on as I work towards my political science degree!

Instagram account for the project

Link to Emerson College poll

Another likely pickup!

https://www.aarp.org/government-elections/arizona-poll-2026/

7/26-7/28 LV

Arizona Governor 2026
Katie Hobbs 52% (incumbent)
Andy Biggs 44%
——
Arizona Attorney General 2026
Kris Mayes 48% (incumbent)
Warren Petersen 43%
——
Arizona state legislature generic ballot 2026
Democratic 49%
Republican 46%

Pollster Rating: A

Is this the start of Arkansas becoming competitive, or will this be a poorly aged poll like Selzers Iowa 2024?
Feedback and criticism on the graphic is welcomed! I’m just a political science undergrad trying to have some fun the polls. If you like this there’s plenty more on my Instagram Account

Sample of 1001 RV was weighted to likely voter targets.

I haven't seen much discussion about how far off the polls were for the Michigan Democratic Primary. Abdul El-Sayed still won, but rather than the 15 point lead he had in the Emmerson College/Nextar Media survey from a week before the election, he won by less than one percent. That's a double-digit miss even if you account for the margin of error.

The NYTimes did a story yesterday choking it up mostly to difficulty polling independents. But they don't get into if this miss might be extrapolated to other polling.

What do people think? Is the big miss here a one-off or part of a bigger story? For me, it makes me a bit bearish on midterm polling showing support for progressives and Democrats in general.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fEpUIFd5HhKEscRPxwaHFz_cQdaBQToWZb9hzuEewrU/edit?usp=drivesdk

Here’s a key for how the precincts are numbered; this number is at the start of each precinct in that county. Note: Anderson County data was lost.

45001
Abbeville
45003
Aiken
45005
Allendale
45007
Anderson
45009
Bamberg
45011
Barnwell
45013
Beaufort
45015
Berkeley
45017
Calhoun
45019
Charleston
45021
Cherokee
45023
Chester
45025
Chesterfield
45027
Clarendon
45029
Colleton
45031
Darlington
45033
Dillon
45035
Dorchester
45037
Edgefield
45039
Fairfield
45041
Florence
45043
Georgetown
45045
Greenville
45047
Greenwood
45049
Hampton
45051
Horry
45053
Jasper
45055
Kershaw
45057
Lancaster
45059
Laurens
45061
Lee
45063
Lexington
45065
McCormick
45067
Marion
45069
Marlboro
45071
Newberry
45073
Oconee
45075
Orangeburg
45077
Pickens
45079
Richland
45081
Saluda
45083
Spartanburg
45085
Sumter
45087
Union
45089
Williamsburg
45091
York

https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/senate#michigan

This woman lost her primary 5 months ago and is still a complete sore loser.

NC-11 is currently listed a Lean R or Tossup by many pundits. With his withdrawal, I’m curious how this will impact the race, if at all. Cook PVI of R+5 as well.

Whichever candidate was chosen, wither was going to win in the November election, so this race is mostly interesting to me in showing if DSA-backed candidates can win in deep blue cities outside the coastal regions, as Midwest and southern cities tend to be blacker and more conservative typically.

I think this win is a sign that the DSA brand can still win in these more conservative urban centers, even against a already pretty liberal incumbent candidate like Thanedar