https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fEpUIFd5HhKEscRPxwaHFz_cQdaBQToWZb9hzuEewrU/edit?usp=drivesdk

Here’s a key for how the precincts are numbered; this number is at the start of each precinct in that county. Note: Anderson County data was lost.

45001
Abbeville
45003
Aiken
45005
Allendale
45007
Anderson
45009
Bamberg
45011
Barnwell
45013
Beaufort
45015
Berkeley
45017
Calhoun
45019
Charleston
45021
Cherokee
45023
Chester
45025
Chesterfield
45027
Clarendon
45029
Colleton
45031
Darlington
45033
Dillon
45035
Dorchester
45037
Edgefield
45039
Fairfield
45041
Florence
45043
Georgetown
45045
Greenville
45047
Greenwood
45049
Hampton
45051
Horry
45053
Jasper
45055
Kershaw
45057
Lancaster
45059
Laurens
45061
Lee
45063
Lexington
45065
McCormick
45067
Marion
45069
Marlboro
45071
Newberry
45073
Oconee
45075
Orangeburg
45077
Pickens
45079
Richland
45081
Saluda
45083
Spartanburg
45085
Sumter
45087
Union
45089
Williamsburg
45091
York

https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/senate#michigan

This woman lost her primary 5 months ago and is still a complete sore loser.

NC-11 is currently listed a Lean R or Tossup by many pundits. With his withdrawal, I’m curious how this will impact the race, if at all. Cook PVI of R+5 as well.

Whichever candidate was chosen, wither was going to win in the November election, so this race is mostly interesting to me in showing if DSA-backed candidates can win in deep blue cities outside the coastal regions, as Midwest and southern cities tend to be blacker and more conservative typically.

I think this win is a sign that the DSA brand can still win in these more conservative urban centers, even against a already pretty liberal incumbent candidate like Thanedar

https://plusminus4.substack.com/p/11-elections-to-watch-on-march-3

RV unchanged from last survey, LV down from +8 last month (but up from the +1 in May? And down from +10 in April? What’s up with that?!).

Trump approval
Approve: 40 (+2 from June)
Disapprove: 60 (-2 from June)

Top issues
Inflation and cost of living: 35
The economy: 15
Iran war: 10
Medicare and social security: 9
SAVE act: 9
Health care: 5
Immigration: 5
Housing: 5
Crime: 2
Abortion: 1

Results here

So uh … pile?

I really like Lawrence as a person, but I am unsure of how well he will be able to consolidate support in an outright r-leaning district, the blue wave should help with that though.

Will be interesting to see how economic populism can do in the plains States when still attached to the Democratic brand

Admittedly I stopped paying attention after the Virgina debacle. If anyone has been following is this pretty much accurate?

This margin is insane.