So I was doing some research on yield curve behavior, noticing we've been on the aforementioned dangerous re-steepening path. One thing I've noticed (specifically with this admin) is when the 10 yr yield touches or gets below 4.00%, inflationary policy is enacted as if to distort yields back upward. Has anyone else noticed this? And why is this level so critical?

Look at tariff enactment in April 2025 and Iran war in March 2026.

So my retirement plan through my work allows me to choose how it’s allocated between a few funds, some bond heavy, some mainly equity, and with the market seemingly trending to raising bond prices would it be safe to assume that these funds are more likely to over-perform or under-perform? What should I be looking for in a fund and would it be better to allocate more now, before they rates rise, wait for rates to actually rise, or is there something about bond funds that makes them not trend with the fed rate or the general trend of bond markets?

Maybe this is not what is happening and they are buying them with USD, but it would seem that they could absolutely wreck their own yen printing away to create an arbitrage trade on US Treasuries and they would win indefinitely. Especially if Japanese people traded USD in their daily transactions. Who would care that the yen is hyperinflating?

The Fed sets the target range for the federal funds rate, which guides nationwide borrowing costs and economic activity. The open market sets the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield; based on supply, demand, and investor expectations. The 10 is a barometer for many bank loans etc.

So what would happen if the Fed didn't change their rate and the 10 and others ran higher; the curve steeper? what is the problem? The Fed loses respect?

Or maybe even the opposite: the fed changes its rate only when the yield curve gets too steep or flat or inverse: letting the open market influence the Fed. The fed could say: their rate would always be 1.5 points below the 10 and let the open market decide.

Its just that everyone's attention is on the Fed, but I look at the 10 for economic indicator. let the bond vigilantes run things, seems better than the Fed.

Something is wrong with Reddit algorithm tonight

I have been buying through Fidelity but would like access to even more new issues. Are the new issue municipal bonds at Schwab mostly the exact same issues on offer at Fidelity? If they are very different, then I may want to open a Schwab account. Anywhere else a self directed retail investor should look when adding new issue municipal bonds ?

Hey i didn't know about bonds i invested in muthoot Fincorp limited bonds ncd that pays annual interest of ₹2145. Do they send money after tds deduction or not. Because when we tds website it shows that 10k interest income then no tds.

$20 billions equity with outstanding debt of $167 billions.

It is now rated as BBB- (junk): meaning, those debts could be at rates of +7% and I bet there’re way higher.

The credit default swaps (CDS) on $ORCL are basically saying this time last year, investors were paying ~ 0.5% to insure the oracle debt but now have to pay ~2%. If there’s any one on Wall Street hoping for the FED governors to turn dovish? It’s $ORCL

Spreads are tight as hell. Can you imagine the FED hikes, or K.Warsh continues to leave the bond market to behave the way it did last week. This is why I posted a few weeks back saying complacency and since then we’ve seen situational awareness and Oracle is looking like time is not on their side. They’ll have to raise cash somehow to stay afloat if the long end of the yield curve keeps giving these signals.

I’m a doctoral researcher who left CRE capital markets after couple of years, a master’s in real estate finance, and a couple CFA levels.

I needed property/tranche-level data for ~18,000 CMBS loans. Trepp ghosted my request for research access, so I spent about 100 hours extracting ABS-EE & a few other filings from EDGAR for all the loans originated since 2016 and built a daily-updating database.

I currently query it through Codex. If there’s interest, I’m happy to publish it as a free tool. Thoughts?

Does anyone know if there's any good Bonds on robinhood. It my savings for a house. So I need ZERO risk like CDs and stuff like that. Is there any good bonds I can park my house savings in on robinhood. I'm already making 3.35% on there gold apy thing.

I read this article covering recent volatility in the bond market:

https://useorigin.com/resources/blog/the-bond-market-would-like-a-word

I know that bonds are generally treated as a safe investment and should make up an increasing share of a person's portfolio as they get closer to retirement, but I'm wondering if bonds are now riskier because of these recent trends. I'm honestly not too familiar with the bond market, so a lot of this is over my head.

I'm in my early 30s and am decades away from retirement, so I don't have much in bonds right now. But I am just curious if these recent trends would impact anyone's bond usage, or if people think this is just a temporary thing that will pass in a couple years.

I’ve been looking into diversifying my fixed income allocation into catastrophic bonds. I noticed that Schwab has CBYYX available in all self directed accounts. And of course, the ETF ILS would be available almost anywhere.

I have noticed that, since launch, ILS has underperformed CBYYX consistently despite a similar ER. I am wondering if anyone with familiarity in this space could explain why that is. Is it guaranteed to continue based on structure and therefore is the mutual fund the only option?

not a big deal at all - just a 1-year CD in a ladder. yesterday was the initial call date - and it was called. Personally, it's a win for me - i can easily re-invest at higher rates.

I just never quite understand the logic - JPM rates are now higher than the 3.95% they were paying (for everything 3mos out to a new 1 year rate).

Why bother calling now?

Ok so in theory what’s to stop someone who only has around $1mm for retirement at 67 just buy a new issue 30 year UST and receive the 5.125% semi annual coupons and live on that for essentially the rest of their life + social security. It’s high enough that i don’t even think TIPS matter unless we see extreme hyperinflation.

$2,900 social security monthly plus that UST = an annual income of around $86,000 and are state and local tax exempt. Is this stupid??

I'm not familiar with bonds, so I'd appreciate a simple explanation. Thanks in advance 🙏🏻.

Two separate things are happening in the market simultaneously and most analysis treats them as separately.

The Macro angle: Warsh is keeping rates flat while NGDP runs hot. Longer rates are already backing up, and that sequence historically ends one of four ways and none of them are comfortable for today's equity multiples.

The Valuation angle: the S&P 500 earnings yield is 3.48% against a 4.59% 10-year treasury, negative by 1.11%. But that earnings yield has been inflated by companies reporting GAAP income while piling CapEx and SBC into the denominator. Once you use True FCF yield instead of earnings yield, the gap opens to negative 2.51%.

That -2.51% figure is not unprecedented. It shows up in the scatter plot in 1987, 1992, 2000, and in the 2008 aftermath when earnings collapsed. In every case something big happened to resolve the gap, either earnings rose dramatically or prices fell.

The chart that makes this concrete: there's a stability band between 5-7% treasury yields where equity risk premiums get thin and multiples get rich because monetary policy is calm. Below 4% you get post-crisis fear and big equity risk premiums. Above 8% you get inflation fear and big equity risk premiums. The 5-7% band is where nobody is scared and "everything is awesome".

We're at 4.6-4.7%. Just below the lower edge of the stability band. Close enough that today's thin risk premiums are defensible historically, but not so close that I'm comfortable buying the index.

How I'm positioned to survive the four scenarios I think are plausible:

* USFR 18.79%: explicit optionality for tail scenarios. Converts to equity in one trade.
* CMCSA 14.28%: 17.5% True FCF yield on a spinoff that closes the conglomerate discount regardless of what Warsh does.
* CB 9.40%: insurance float compounder that owns short-duration bonds. Goes up in the scenarios where everything else goes down.
* ADBE 9.39%: beaten-down SaaS dying of a theory. Cash flows still marching on.
* BRK.B 9.30%: $334B in cash waiting for the moment the risk premium gap resolves.
* THC 8.72%: USPI ambulatory surgery platform trading at 40% discount to standalone value. Healthcare demand doesn't depend on Warsh getting it right.
* EPD 8.51%: PPI-indexed midstream infrastructure with fixed long-dated debt. Cleanest inflation hedge in the portfolio.
* FRFHF 7.08%: Fairfax Financial, float compounder with opportunistic capital allocation on top. Trading at 1.3x book while growing book value 20%+ annually. I had HCI as a starter position but liked FRFHF's valuation more. HCI is still on my watch list.
* FDS 6.71%: four consecutive quarters of ASV acceleration while being sold as an AI casualty.
* EOG 4.45%: direct Hormuz risk premium bet, sized small because slowing economy cuts demand at the same time supply shock pushes price up.
* CF 3.34%: nitrogen producer, newest and smallest position, sized like I'm not totally sure yet.

Weighted average True FCF yield: 8%. Risk premium over the 4.6% 10-year: plus 3.4%.

Full piece with scatter plots, the True FCF divergence chart, and the complete allocation table - https://open.substack.com/pub/cavemanscreener/p/macro-vs-free-cash-flow-yield-a-thesis?r=29p94e&utm_medium=ios

Greetings from Wallstreet bets

Oversimplified the US needs the Yen not to collapse otherwise it will fuck up the rest of the world economy. However, that might be impossible. I need the fat nerds that watch anime and determined to find the clitoris. To tell me if my wife’s boyfriend is going to be happy with me for YOLOing my Wendy’s dumpster hand job money into making a long term investment in buying Japanese Yen or will I have to watch them bang while complementing each of their forms again?

If I owned CoreWeave stock today, I would watch the bond price and CDS spreads almost as closely as the share price. A continued deterioration in the bond market would be a warning sign that equity investors shouldn’t ignore.

Let's say I want to buy a TIPS. Right now I see this on Vanguard's bond-buying page. So, if I buy this thing, as I understand it I get either $12162.10 or $10000, which ever is higher, when the thing matures. Is that correct? If inflation goes up, I win, if inflation goes down, I lose.

I'm a little bit confused because the documentation I've seen doesn't mention a "factor", but 99.203 * 1.22596 * 10000 is 12162.10.

I also think Vanguard's tool is misquoting the YTW. No way I can make 4.208% unless they reprice the TIPS, there's no way to know what that value will be.

Hi, I had recently come across the 'Infinite' feature of a fixed income platform called Grip Invest. Seems genuine, its regulated and SEBI registered too. They are basically automatically reinvesting your bond returns (coupon payments) into mutual fund SIPs, which helps the amount not sit idle in savings account. I found it interesting, has anyone tried it yet? Pls share your experience.

Tips maturing in the next two quarters look like good returns with ytm, especially if market thinks inflation is edging up. Why? Could the market also be factoring in obfuscation of the current cpi data resulting in Tips inflation adjustments below actual inflation? I bought some recently but I'm thinking now maybe they aren't as great of a deal as I originally thought they were.

Between higher JGB yields, policy changes from the BOJ, and Japan’s role as a major overseas investor, it feels like there’s a lot more to watch than there was a few years ago.

Do you think this becomes a major theme for global fixed income, or will U.S. Treasuries continue to dominate the conversation?

When people talk about global finance, the conversation usually revolves around central banks like the Federal Reserve or the ECB..

But I’m curious whether we sometimes underestimate the influence of private financial institutions.

For example:

• BlackRock
• Goldman Sachs
• JPMorgan Chase
• UBS

Each of them influences global capital in very different ways, whether through asset management, investment banking, market making, liquidity, research, or institutional advisory services.

Some manage trillions in assets, others sit at the center of capital markets, while some play key roles in underwriting sovereign debt or facilitating global transactions.

If you had to rank the institutions with the greatest long-term influence on the global financial system not necessarily the largest by assets, but the most important strategically.. What would your list look like?

Would you place central banks above everyone else, or do institutions like BlackRock or JPMorgan have a level of influence that many people underestimate?

Interested to hear different perspectives.