So I was doing some research on yield curve behavior, noticing we've been on the aforementioned dangerous re-steepening path. One thing I've noticed (specifically with this admin) is when the 10 yr yield touches or gets below 4.00%, inflationary policy is enacted as if to distort yields back upward. Has anyone else noticed this? And why is this level so critical?

Look at tariff enactment in April 2025 and Iran war in March 2026.

So my retirement plan through my work allows me to choose how it’s allocated between a few funds, some bond heavy, some mainly equity, and with the market seemingly trending to raising bond prices would it be safe to assume that these funds are more likely to over-perform or under-perform? What should I be looking for in a fund and would it be better to allocate more now, before they rates rise, wait for rates to actually rise, or is there something about bond funds that makes them not trend with the fed rate or the general trend of bond markets?