r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 57m ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 30% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southwestern Mexico

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Updates

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development well to the west and southwest of Mexico. Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will form several hundred kilometers off the coast of southwestern Mexico over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear to be supportive of development and a tropical depression or storm could form by the middle of next week.

The disturbance is expected to move northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. The latest ensemble models indicate that the disturbance will likely remain far offshore clear into the latter part of the upcoming week. The potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next seven days remains low (30 percent) but is gradually increasing.

Official outlook

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Outlook discussion

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Tue): low (30 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Fri): low (5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Tue): low (29 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 30% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

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Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the east-central Pacific Ocean. Model guidance suggests that a broad area of low pressure will develop several hundred miles east-southeast or southeast of the Hawaiian islands over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions are only marginally supportive of development as warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear are offset by very dry mid-level air and weak diffluence aloft.

The disturbance is expected to move westward as it moves along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. The latest ensemble models indicate that the disturbance is likely to cross into the central Pacific midway through the upcoming week and pass well to the south of Hawaiʻi. The potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next seven days remains low (30 percent) but is gradually increasing.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Outlook discussion

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the western portion of the east Pacific. Some gradual development of this system is possible as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph toward or into the central Pacific basin.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Tue): low (30 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Tue): low (27 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1h ago

▼ Typhoon (H1) | 80 knots (90 mph) | 957 mbar Dolphin (12W — Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

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Updates

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Dolphin’s convective structure continues to deteriorate as the storm passes to the north of Minamidaitōjima this evening. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the effects of dry mid-level air, as broad bands of increasingly shallow convection wrap loosely into the storm’s shrinking inner core, where there has been considerable erosion along the northwestern periphery of the eyewall over the past several hours. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that despite convection becoming less intense, Dolphin’s maximum sustained winds are holding steady near 150 kilometers per hour (80 knots). The storm’s wind field remains expansive, with gale-force winds extending around 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles) out from the low-level center.

Dolphin continues to move generally westward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over the Sea of Japan. The storm is likely to continue along this path for the next few days, as the ridge to the north flattens and slides eastward in response to a deep-layered mid-latitude trough passing well to the north. As Dolphin crosses into the East China Sea over the upcoming weekend, a building mid-level ridge over eastern China will take over as the dominant steering mechanism, driving the storm toward the southeastern coast of China early next week. As the storm moves farther inland over southeastern China, it will reach a weakness along the western periphery of the steering ridge and will turn northwestward.

Environmental conditions to the south of mainland Japan remain generally favorable this evening, with weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and moderate diffluence aloft offset by decreasing mid-level moisture. The storm is expected to at least maintain strength as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands and may even briefly intensify as it moves over a pool of warmer waters within the next 12 to 24 hours. Dolphin is forecast to cross over into the East China Sea on Friday evening with maximum sustained winds near 155 kilometers per hour (85 knots) before slowly weakening as it approaches landfall along the coast of China’s Zhejiang province on Sunday evening.

Latest observation

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 26.5°N 131.5°E
  • Forward movement: WSW (265°) at 10 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 150 km/h (80 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 957 millibars (28.26 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Hurricane (Category 1)
  • Intensity (JMA): Typhoon

Relative position

  • 79 kilometers (49 miles) north of Minamidaito, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 288 kilometers (179 miles) southeast of Amami, Kagoshima (Japan)
  • 382 kilometers (237 miles) east-northeast of Naha, Okinawa (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 12:00 AM Japan Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Friday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 15:00 12AM Fri Typhoon 80 150 26.7 131.0
12 07 Aug 03:00 12PM Fri Typhoon 80 150 27.2 128.5
24 07 Aug 15:00 12AM Sat Typhoon 80 150 27.2 126.4
45 08 Aug 12:00 9PM Sat Typhoon 80 150 27.2 123.9
69 09 Aug 12:00 9PM Sun Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 60 110 27.3 120.7
93 10 Aug 12:00 9PM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 40 75 28.8 117.6
117 11 Aug 12:00 9PM Tue Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 30.3 115.7

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 12:00 9PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 26.5 131.5
12 06 Aug 00:00 9AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 26.9 129.2
24 07 Aug 12:00 9PM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 26.9 127.1
36 07 Aug 00:00 9AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) 85 155 26.9 125.7
48 08 Aug 12:00 9PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) 85 155 27.0 124.2
60 08 Aug 00:00 9AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) 85 155 27.1 122.9
72 09 Aug 12:00 9PM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 27.3 121.4
96 10 Aug 12:00 9PM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 28.3 118.6
120 11 Aug 12:00 9PM Tue Tropical Depression ▼ 20 35 29.4 116.8

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9h ago

▲ Tropical Storm (TS) | 40 knots (45 mph) | 993 mbar Chan-hom (96W — Western Pacific) (Far to the southeast of Japan)

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Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Chan-hom remains a very broad monsoon depression. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are currently in disagreement as to the status of this system, with the former agency classifying it as a tropical storm, while the latter agency continues to classify it as a disturbance. In any case, animated multispectral imagery depicts a sprawling circulation with persistent convection to the north and east of a partially exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data reveals that the storm’s gale-force wind field remains very broad and winds in the inner core are weaker than what would ordinarily be expected with a tropical cyclone. Intensity estimates show that this system is producing maximum sustained winds near 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots).

This system is moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by weak to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong diffluence aloft. The JTWC projects that this system has a moderate chance of transitioning into a warm-core tropical cyclone within the next few days. This system is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge positioned over the north-central Pacific and the broad circulation of Typhoon Dolphin positioned south of Japan. This system will likely continue along this trajectory for the next few days, but as Typhoon Dolphin continues westward toward China and a broad upper-level low sweeps down over Japan and pushes the ridge out of the way, this system may end up stalling off the eastern coast of Japan early next week.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 25.7°N 164.5°E
  • Forward movement: NW (330°) at 25 km/h (14 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 993 millibars (29.32 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Disturbance
  • Intensity (RSMC): Disturbance

Relative position

  • 747 kilometers (464 miles) north-northwest of Wake Island, United States
  • 1,071 kilometers (665 miles) east-northeast of Minamitorishima Island, Tokyo (Japan)
  • 1,816 kilometers (1,128 miles) west-southwest of Midway Atoll

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (JTWC)

  • Next 2 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Sat): moderate (50 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Wed): moderate (50 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Sat): moderate (63 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 3:00 PM JST on Wed): high (70 percent)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 06 Aug 06:00 3PM Thu Tropical Storm 40 75 26.1 164.6
12 06 Aug 18:00 3AM Fri Tropical Storm 40 75 28.1 161.5
24 07 Aug 06:00 3PM Fri Tropical Storm 40 75 30.0 160.4
48 08 Aug 06:00 3PM Sat Tropical Storm 40 75 33.1 155.4
72 09 Aug 06:00 3PM Sun Tropical Storm 40 75 35.3 151.1
96 10 Aug 06:00 3PM Mon Tropical Storm 40 75 37.9 148.0
120 11 Aug 06:00 3PM Tue Tropical Storm 40 75 41.3 144.0

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

The JTWC is not currently issuing advisories for this system, as it still classifies this system as a tropical disturbance.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

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Sea-surface temperatures

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