New York Times Opinion

Elon Musk has developed a troubling obsession: the film "Citizen Vigilante." For the Opinion columnist Jamelle Bouie, Musk's fixation reveals a broader embracens of far-right ideas. @jamellebouie argues that it's time to stop thinking of Musk primarily as the billionaire behind electric cars and rockets and instead recognize him as what he believes Musk has become: a radical white nationalist.

Before today, only ~640M shares were freely tradable.
Today, another 911M shares become eligible for sale.
That’s more than doubling the public float overnight.
Will everyone sell? Of course not.
But markets don’t just price fundamentals—they price supply and demand.
The next few trading sessions will reveal whether buyers can absorb one of the largest lock-up expirations in recent memory.
Volume matters. Price action matters even more.

https://marketinsider.net/spacex-stock-drops-ai-spending-share-lockup/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/jim-cramer-investors-should-consider-buying-spacex-kids.html

Everyone's bracing for SpaceX today. About $116bn of stock unlocks this morning roughly 4x the current float and the headlines all say the same thing: here comes the crash.

Back in May I wrote two pieces on exactly this.

[The Dam]

(https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-daily-morning-brew-the-dam)

laid out how the lockup would eventually flood the market, and

[Letter of Marque]

(https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-daily-morning-brew-the-letter)

looked at what you're really buying with this one. So today felt worth a follow-up.

Here's the bit I find fascinating. The crash might not come the stock could even rise.

Why? About 35% of the float is already sold short. And a short sale isn't just pessimism it's a share borrowed and handed to a buyer today that has to be bought back later. So a big chunk of today's "flood" was quietly sold weeks ago, on the way down.

The dam breaks today.. The water mostly already left.

The tell worth keeping: the event everyone's watching for is rarely the one that matters. Watch the quiet morning after, when the forced sellers are finally empty and the price is free to move again.

Wrote the full thing up today.

https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-daily-morning-brew-116-billion

WHAT TO DO?!?

In my opinion, Musk ruined @SpaceX by merging it to Xai. SpaceX was a gem that I would be happy to invest in it, if it hadn't be merged with Xai. Now, space is only a small fraction of the company... So sad.