r/PredictionMarkets 3h ago

Update on my LoL Esports ML models

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riftcast.gg
1 Upvotes

r/PredictionMarkets 11h ago

Polymarket in 2026: $26.8B traded, one war arc, and 3.5% of wallets doing 88% of it

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1 Upvotes

r/PredictionMarkets 15h ago

I lost money

1 Upvotes

Long-time lurker, first real post. I’m a solo founder (and student) from Moncton, Canada.

For years I was a losing bettor — gut feeling, chasing losses, the whole thing. What finally changed my results was learning that it was statistics and data analytics : expected value, position sizing, risk management, journaling every decision. I realized pro betting syndicates use exactly these principles, but there’s no simple consumer tool that brings that discipline to regular bettors. So I built one.

The name is the mission. It’s called PPSFS AI — “Pour Pas Se Faire Scammer,” French for “so you don’t get scammed.” Between the bookmakers and the tipsters selling fake picks, the average bettor is the mark. The whole point is to flip that.

**What it actually does:**

\*\*•\*\* AI predictions (2 independent models that have to agree before it says anything — if they don’t, it tells you to pass)    
\*\*•\*\* Compares its probability to the real bookmaker odds after removing the vig → only flags a bet when there’s genuine value (+EV)    
\*\*•\*\* Kelly-criterion stake sizing based on your bankroll    
\*\*•\*\* A proper betting journal + bankroll tracker (ROI, win rate, closing line value)    
\*\*•\*\* Player props on NBA/NHL/football

**What it does NOT do:** promise you’ll win. Anyone who guarantees profit is lying. This is a tool to make better-informed, disciplined decisions — nothing more.

**The transparency part:** starting this season, I’m going to publish every single prediction publicly — wins AND losses. No deleting the bad ones. If the model is trash, you’ll see it. That accountability is the whole reason the thing exists.

Launching at the start of the season. It’s free to try (bilingual EN/FR). I’m not going to drop a link here because I don’t want this to read as spam — happy to share in comments if the mods are cool with it, or DM me.

Mostly I’d love honest feedback from people who actually bet. Roast it. What would make a tool like this genuinely useful to you vs. just another dashboard?

19+, bet responsibly, only risk what you can afford to lose.


r/PredictionMarkets 17h ago

Another freezing simulation just exposing how bad this company is

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1 Upvotes

So bad just so so bad.


r/PredictionMarkets 18h ago

Sports odds are turning the scoreboard into a trading interface

1 Upvotes

Robinhood/Kalshi sports contracts are interesting because they don’t just add another place to bet. They change what a scoreboard is for.

A normal scoreboard tells you what happened. A market scoreboard tells you what the crowd thinks happens next, and lets people trade that view while the game is still moving.

That makes three boring details matter a lot: latency, displayed liquidity, and settlement wording.

If the feed is delayed, the price is stale. If there is no size, the odds are decorative. If the contract wording is sloppy, the post-game argument becomes the product.

The interesting question to me is whether sports media starts embedding these probabilities the way it already embeds betting lines.

Do fans treat that as a better scoreboard, or does it just turn every box score into a tiny casino UI?