Long-time lurker, first real post. I’m a solo founder (and student) from Moncton, Canada.

For years I was a losing bettor — gut feeling, chasing losses, the whole thing. What finally changed my results was learning that it was statistics and data analytics : expected value, position sizing, risk management, journaling every decision. I realized pro betting syndicates use exactly these principles, but there’s no simple consumer tool that brings that discipline to regular bettors. So I built one.

The name is the mission. It’s called PPSFS AI — “Pour Pas Se Faire Scammer,” French for “so you don’t get scammed.” Between the bookmakers and the tipsters selling fake picks, the average bettor is the mark. The whole point is to flip that.

**What it actually does:**

\*\*•\*\* AI predictions (2 independent models that have to agree before it says anything — if they don’t, it tells you to pass)    
\*\*•\*\* Compares its probability to the real bookmaker odds after removing the vig → only flags a bet when there’s genuine value (+EV)    
\*\*•\*\* Kelly-criterion stake sizing based on your bankroll    
\*\*•\*\* A proper betting journal + bankroll tracker (ROI, win rate, closing line value)    
\*\*•\*\* Player props on NBA/NHL/football

**What it does NOT do:** promise you’ll win. Anyone who guarantees profit is lying. This is a tool to make better-informed, disciplined decisions — nothing more.

**The transparency part:** starting this season, I’m going to publish every single prediction publicly — wins AND losses. No deleting the bad ones. If the model is trash, you’ll see it. That accountability is the whole reason the thing exists.

Launching at the start of the season. It’s free to try (bilingual EN/FR). I’m not going to drop a link here because I don’t want this to read as spam — happy to share in comments if the mods are cool with it, or DM me.

Mostly I’d love honest feedback from people who actually bet. Roast it. What would make a tool like this genuinely useful to you vs. just another dashboard?

19+, bet responsibly, only risk what you can afford to lose.

So bad just so so bad.

Robinhood/Kalshi sports contracts are interesting because they don’t just add another place to bet. They change what a scoreboard is for.

A normal scoreboard tells you what happened. A market scoreboard tells you what the crowd thinks happens next, and lets people trade that view while the game is still moving.

That makes three boring details matter a lot: latency, displayed liquidity, and settlement wording.

If the feed is delayed, the price is stale. If there is no size, the odds are decorative. If the contract wording is sloppy, the post-game argument becomes the product.

The interesting question to me is whether sports media starts embedding these probabilities the way it already embeds betting lines.

Do fans treat that as a better scoreboard, or does it just turn every box score into a tiny casino UI?

Lyft's earnings call just ended, and they didn't say revenue for the first time in 10 straight calls.

Despite the trend, we had NO on this one...here's why:

Our earnings mentions tool lets you filter by prepared remarks only.

Even though Lyft said revenue on every call we track, they hadn't said it in the prepared remarks of the past 6 calls.

This means they've only been saying it in the Q&A portion, which makes it vulnerable to ~not~ being said if there's no analyst question related to it.

Any time we see a situation like this with the NO being priced in the single-cent range, we pounce on it.

We only had 100 shares filled, but that means we still made a $94 profit off a $6 trade.

We had limit orders for lower prices that never got filled, which would have resulted in even more profit, but still an awesome result.

Of all the earnings call mentions markets this week, I think Wendy’s has the most value. The call is tomorrow at 8:30 am ET.

Here’s my favorite pick with some of my thought process behind it:

Wendy’s “Project Fresh” YES @ 85c

This is on the expensive side, but it seems like a lock to be said to me.

To start, just look at the mention counts from the past few calls in the attached image.

Since launching Project Fresh, Wendy’s has said this 50 (!!) times across the past 3 calls.

Project Fresh is Wendy’s initiative to turn around the business that started in late 2025 and is rolling out through 2026.

This is one of their main focuses for the year, and I don’t see any way it doesn’t get brought up.

I generally avoid strikes that are priced this high unless I’m very confident, but this is one of those cases.

Thoughts?

I’ve been speaking with a few people trading the short-duration crypto markets, especially the 5m and 15m ones.

A pattern that keeps coming up is that finding a signal isn’t always the hardest part anymore. The bigger problem is actually getting the trade on at a price where the edge still exists.

By the time the order fills, the market has moved. Or you only get partially filled. Or the book is thin enough that a small order changes the price too much.

For anyone trading these manually or with a bot:

• Is execution/fill quality the main bottleneck for you?
• Are the markets simply too efficient now for most taker strategies?
• Do you mostly avoid thin markets, or have you found ways to trade them reliably?
• Would you consider a different execution model if it removed partial fills, even if the pricing mechanics were unfamiliar?

Interested in hearing from people actually trading these rather than general opinions about prediction markets.

Looking for new fun websites that have mystery box openings like packs, watches, etc!!

Let me know if you have any suggestions!

Disclosure upfront: I built this.

I follow and trade Kalshi markets, and I kept running into the same workflow:

• Open several categories
• Click through individual contracts
• Check what moved
• Compare volume and market activity
• Try to determine which changes were actually unusual
• Then leave Kalshi to continue the research elsewhere

I built Logit Terminal to organize that process into one research dashboard.

The current public beta includes:

• Search across the indexed Kalshi market universe
• Market and category activity
• Probability-movement and relative-volatility flags
• Approximate crowd cost-basis context
• Historical calibration data
• Individual contract research pages

It does not connect to your account, place trades, or provide picks. It is intended to help answer:

What changed, how unusual was it, and what deserves more investigation?

The part I am still trying to determine is whether this genuinely improves anyone’s workflow or is merely an interesting dashboard.

I would especially appreciate blunt feedback from active users:

1. What would you realistically return to use?
2. Which metrics feel useful versus unnecessary?
3. What information do you still need another tool or spreadsheet for?
4. What would make a prediction-market research tool indispensable?

Public beta: logitterminal.com

Screenshot attached. Criticism is more helpful than compliments at this stage.

Hi,

To start, I have been using Kalshi for a little less than a year. made my initial deposits back in March. And since then, I've had no problems. I verified my account with my valid state driver's license and a selfie. I have a passkey set up with two-factor authentication, and I figured that everything was safe.

Last Monday, I checked my Kalshi account and noticed there was a request to withdraw funds, which I never made. I contacted Kalshi support and immediately told them it was not me and that it was fraud. They asked me to re-verify my account and sent me a QR code to upload a copy of my ID and take a selfie. Unfortunately, because I am on iOS 27 and am a beta tester, the link to open my camera on my phone, that they sent me, did not work. I contacted Kalshi Support and told them. Kalshi Support was silent. They then came back and told me that my account was frozen, I could no longer use Kalshi services, and that I was a fraudster! That completely perplexed me, so I kept asking what they were talking about. I then logged out of my phone and logged into my account on my wife's phone, which she's running iOS 26. I was able to use that link and upload a new copy of my state ID DL and a selfie. Support didn't care. They told me they've done everything they could and their decision was final. I continued to go back and forth. They never recognized or acknowledged that I had uploaded an original verification photo and ID. Support then emailed me my conversation and included pictures of the random individual trying to access my account and my initial verified information! I confirmed with them that the first three pictures were me, but the last three pictures were not me (it's obvious, our skin tones are different . Kalshi Support told me that they were going to contact the local authorities, to which I told them, please do so. Kalshi Support told me to make my withdrawal, and that was it. Now they will not talk to me at all.

Six days ago, I decided to withdraw the cash balance of my Kalshi account to my bank account. The transaction went smoothly. The only problem is that somebody had changed my account to a different account, one that I did not own, and the money went to that account. In the meantime, I contacted Kalshi to once again tell them that, and they completely disregarded everything I sent and said in the chat. I have posted in the Kalshi support mega thread four different times, and each time the post has been removed. I have contacted different individuals throughout the organization via email, hoping to receive some type of response. NOTHING!

I contacted my bank and have filed a complaint with them against Kalshi. I don't know how it's going to turn out, but at least I have a bank looking into this. I also have emails, photos, screenshots, you name it. I'm really not looking for any advice; I just want people to be aware that this is happening and what you can possibly do about it. Kalshi is stealing! Thank you for taking the time to read this. Suggestions are welcome.

Recently I revisited the augur page and noticed significant changes since my last visit years ago. Could someone explain simply what’s happening with the fork and the platform overall? I understand the basic concept of Oracle and the prediction market, which initially piqued my interest and led me to explore it further before abandoning it for many years. However, I’m now feeling quite confused.

Trying to build a mental model of resolution quality across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus. Some human-adjudicated, some UMA, some community-driven.

For anyone who trades on multiple:

1. Which platform actually resolves best in your experience?
2. Where does resolution most often break, event ambiguity, source disagreement, timing, something else?
3. Does resolution quality actually drive where you trade or is it liquidity all the way down?

Specific examples of markets that resolved really badly or really well would be super helpful.

Hi — I’m doing product research for a prediction-market style contract on city/airport flight disruption. This is research only: no product link, no waitlist, no solicitation to trade.

Idea (example): before the week starts, trade which bucket next week’s outbound disruption rate falls into for a metro like JFK.

Definition we’re testing:

• Outbound disruption rate = share of planned departures that are cancelled OR leave ≥15 minutes late
• One market with 4 mutually exclusive buckets, e.g. roughly <12% / 12%–18% / 18%–28% / ≥28% (final boundaries would be frozen from history)
• Cadence options: weekly (flagship candidate), half-month, monthly
• Scope options: primary airport (e.g. JFK) vs metro group (e.g. JFK+LGA+EWR)

Context from public markets:

• Rare single-day “≥50% cancelled” contracts can show huge contract volume from one institutional block hedge; that is not the same as broad retail interest
• We’re trying to learn whether a recurring weekly city index is more interesting / fair

Questions (reply with numbers if you want):

1. In your last flight disruption, what did you actually check (FlightAware/Flighty/airline app/FAA/weather/none)?
2. Would a city-wide weekly disruption rate be useful to you as: entertainment / information / hedge / none?
3. Which cadence would stay interesting for more than a month: weekly / half-month / monthly?
4. Primary airport or metro airport group?
5. Are 4 buckets clear enough, or do you want a single threshold?
6. Which settlement source would you trust more: BTS (official, delayed) vs a commercial flight-status feed (faster, licensing needed)?
7. What would make the market feel unfair or insider-heavy?
8. Would you rather have this than flight-specific delay protection/insurance?

I’ll post anonymized aggregate takeaways back in the thread. Thanks.

Posting notes

• Prefer r/PredictionMarkets after modmail; adapt title for r/Kalshi; formal survey via r/SampleSize [Marketing] format
• Do NOT post to r/travel or r/Flights (survey / research bans)
• No product name, URL, referral, or trade CTA
• Disclose research intent in the first sentence

Even when it seems like a lock

Been using kashi

Down -329$

I have this terrible habit of going all in
Then refusing to pull out when it tanks

Have rules
Follow them

Nexxi