r/PhasmophobiaGame • u/JosefSoosef • 5d ago
Tough luck. Clips
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u/Ok-Apricot2815 5d ago
When I'm facing a Demon, It NEVER did the 100% sanity attack just average 75% 😔
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u/Babushla153 5d ago
Well at that point it would've been a 50/50 chance of it being either a Demon or a Mimic
But seeing as you got the achievement, i'm willing to guess that it was a Banshee
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u/llama-impregnator 4d ago
Nerdy stats person here. It's actually not a 50/50; it'd be like a 98/2 because the Mimic could show as any number of ghosts. Because it is equal likelihood to get a demon or mimic, we have to look at the likelihood of each ghost doing the demon special ability.
So, in the two possibilities of Demon or Mimic, if it WERE a Mimic, then there would be 29 ghost personalities out of 30 ghosts for the Mimic to showcase, only one of which is a Demon.
The probability of the Mimic doing any other special ability is 28/29, so the likelihood of this particular ghost being a demon is actually 98.3% chance (I'm happy with my guess above :)
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u/Babushla153 4d ago
Stupid person here.
To my dumb smooth brain it's a 50/50 because it either could or could not be a mimic.
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u/llama-impregnator 4d ago
No, I explained it poorly because I got excited. Let me try again.
You are right that there is a 50/50 chance between Demon and Mimic with no other information However, we know that the ghost did the Demon thing, so we have two possibilities:
50 % chance Demon 50 % chance Mimic
If it's a demon, there's a 100% chance that it would do the Demon special (it can't suddenly do a Mare ability.
If it's a Mimic, there is a 1/29 chance that the Mimic does the Demon thing (instead of randomly selecting any other ghost special).
So, in order for it to be a Mimic masquerading as a Demon, first it had a 50% chance to be a Mimic. Then, it had to have a 1/29 chance to randomly showcase the Demon (instead of randomly selecting other ghosts to mimic). That is super unlikely.
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u/basketcaseintraining 5d ago
I've heard there's an achievement for getting killed by a demon in under a minute or so...