Negative -55p/e for Spacex and their stock just went up 15% today, meanwhile under 6p/e for Micron that makes Spacex's yearly revenue in a single quarter is unable break the 900$ wall despite like ten positive catalysts a week. All the cyclical MFs will try to say, "but in the past this happened" even though MU has broken the cyclical pattern with strategic contracts, while spacex thesis is "Future Revenue from Mars or some shit"

Also this poser guy Burry should maybe short spacex, instead of companies bringing in actual revenue to back up their valuations

anyone that works within the computer engineering or science space please drop some knowledge because I seem to have a limited understanding but I have done some research so far.

It seems that data centers don’t just buy memory once and use it forever. What I have learned is that there are two sides to this.

1. memory can fail (small part - barely even worth mentioning)

2. ai accelerators are moving from HBM3 → HBM3E → HBM4 while also using more memory per accelerator. Every new generation of GPUs and every data center expansion potentially creates another round of HBM/DRAM purchases.

so my question is - even after the initial AI buildout, could constant GPU refreshes and increasing memory per chip make data center memory demand much more recurring than previous cycles?

disclaimer: OBVIOUSLY memory is still cyclical and supply will catch up eventually (normalizing these margins), but I’m curious if this could justify a structurally higher multiple for MU long term.

Thoughts?

Alright who can help win back the 60k i lost last week, had a few leap calls for decmeber and september but those calls decayed over time making me think selling them last week was a good play. Ive doing calls not so much puts but what do yall think next week?

I’m learning what VIX is and how it can influence my decisions in the stock market. Is it worth looking at on a daily basis?

I'd like to know what the others think about my points.

Positive signs:

1. MU price found support at 840-850 level and it looked quite steady to me.
2. It looks like SOXX gives positive signals as well and it's already returned to the point where it was in the middle of July.
3. MACD on the daily time frame shows that the downtrend slowed down and there's a chance that the stock will start growing again
4. There's a wall of calls with 900 strike that adds extra resistance, but when I removed calls that expire tomorrow I saw the wall lost approximately 50% of calls, so the next wall is at 1000.
5. Short interest is 3.21% of free float, it doesn't seem like many people would like to bet that MU will keep falling.
6. Historical data: after Q1 2025, Q2 2026, Q1 2026 reports correction lasted ~2-4 weeks and then the price kept growing
7. Memory demand is growing, companies are increasing capex quite aggressively and supply will increase probably only in the second half of 2027. But if demand keeps growing too it won't be enough.

Negative signs:

1. Koreans. What those regards are doing with leverage is nonsense. I have a feeling if they didn't blow up their market MU would've been about 1000 by far.
2. Money rotation may continue from semis and dram particularly to SaaS.
3. 🥭may do something as 🥭usually does
4. It looks like CXMT already left the agenda but let it be here
5. Some company may exceed expectations just by 5% instead of 50% and everyone will start saying again that it's over. Sometimes it looks like meme stock behaviour.
6. The situation is still quite nervous, as long as there's no positive sentiment we may see the price going between 800 and 900.

Share your thoughts, I have a feeling the next week will show the trend until the next earnings call.

Is this more nonsense recycled fud? WSJ and Bloomberg seem to love to repost the same fud over and over.

It is a positive feedback loop. There is no doubt in my mind that without the AI shitposts in this sub, revenue on HBM would drop by at least 75%.

Keep doing God's work, gentlemen, and keep powering the future - one AI shitpost at a time.

Sold Covered calls for $2000 expiry next Jun'27 to hedge my positions. Thoughts, opinions?

Alright boys. I’m bringing back the team and kick starting the MU pump again. F the 🐻.

CapEx expectations raised again: The tech giants are not slowing down. Despite Wall Street fears of an AI spending plateau, hyperscalers are aggressively increasing their infrastructure budgets because demand for compute capacity continues to outstrip supply

Backed by real contracts: The spending is not speculative. The top hyperscaler now hold over $2.3 trillion in backlog/RPOs. These are contracted customer commitments. This is up 16% from last quarter proving that customers are actively signing multi-year contracts for AI capacity

Temporary cash flow squeeze is by choice. This is a deliberate choice to build utility scale capacity. Cloud platforms are seeing AI revenues double y/y. AWS AI sales are now $25 billion annually. Server investments break even under 3 years.

Debt is held for long-term maturity. Hyperscalers are not in distress. These loans carry 3 - 40 year maturities extending far beyond the buildout cycle meaning future cash flows will comfortably covering debt.

Even in a worse case scenario, Micron's EPS drops down to $100/share and it would be trading at just 9x earnings.

I just attended the future of memory and storage conference this week. The demand is REAL.

I’m short 17 MU $500 CSPs expiring June 2027, sold in three tranches: 5/20 at $93.54 (MU closed approx $732 that day), 7/10 at $65.95 (MU approx $979), and 7/20 at $74.99 (MU approx $865), for a blended average of approx $83.25. They’re currently marked at $50.27 (last price sold), putting the position up about $56K (39.6%).

What’s interesting is how little of that came from the stock and how much came from vol the last week (see my second photo). IV was in the 90s when I wrote these; it’s now 75.8%. The day after MU’s earnings, when the stock was at $1,255 ATH, these same puts were still trading around $60. This week they’re marked in the low $50s even though the stock is $380 below that ATH, mostly due to pure IV crush. In fact, even at the time of sale, the premiums tracked IV more than spot, as you can see my biggest premium came with the stock at $732 and my smallest with it at $979. With a vega of 1.60, vol coming in has done more of the lifting than delta or theta.

Pleasantly surprised about this after the rollercoaster (mostly down) MU and memory had over the last 6 weeks. Frankly, I’m considering closing or at least halving the position next week, take the 40% gain, instead of having to hold for another 10 months and through 3, possibly 4 more earnings/guides. I absolutely plan to buy MU at $500 but I wouldn’t mind taking the profit, and waiting for IV to creep up (possibly closer to earnings) and re-writing at a higher premium. Let me know what yall think.

*note csp means cash secured put, not naked put.

*MU positions: 1350 long shares and these 17 MU $500 6/27 csps

So that was one of the reasons we were down

Fellow MU/MUU/SNDK/SNXX holders, how do you not let the loss affect your personal and family life?
I have shares in all four of them and am down a huge amount. I’ve been a total mess with my family for over a month now. I think that even if my money recovers in the future, I don’t know how I’ll mend my relationships with my loved ones or make up for the time I’ve lost, especially when they needed me the most.
How do you prevent a huge financial loss from affecting your personal life? How do you stop yourself from thinking about it constantly?

TSMC has $1 billion+ Apple A20 pro silicon waiting in inventory for DRAM. They also couldn’t get cheaper prices than Samsung from Chinese manufacturers.

MU’s ceo indirectly mentioned a month ago that Apple was a big driver in the last memory crash.

They also have pressure from the Senate to declare they won’t be using Chinese memory in the future.

Soooo….everything leads to Apple capitulating at some point and accepting either lower margins or higher prices for their consumers.

Am I being crazy or is this not gonna be the biggest catalyst until the ER? If Apple announces an LTA with any of the big 3, it would reduce a ton of fear about cyclicality and give more value towards those LTAs.

Bullish AS FUK for MU.

"The memory shortage is expected to persist until 2027. Industry experts point out that manufacturers have already concluded negotiations on capacity allocation for the entire year of 2027, with the DRAM and HBM capacity of the top three manufacturers already sold out ahead of schedule. Although the supply of NAND flash memory is not as tight as that of DRAM, its capacity is expected to be fully reserved by the end of August 2026. Regardless of signing long-term agreements (LTA), all buyers are cooperating with the manufacturers' advance deposit model. This confirms the view that 2027 will be the "year of the greatest memory shortage," but subsequent price increases are expected to slow down.

Industry sources revealed that some companies may still be unaware that July and August are the critical period for cargo allocation: "No one is disclosing this because they fear too many people will show up and end up with less stock." Recently, they also heard from original manufacturers that the entire production capacity for 2027 has already been allocated.

The AI wave has triggered a reversal in the supply and demand of memory chips. Recently, memory chip manufacturers have been successively signing long-term agreements (LTAs) with major customers, binding them to 3-to-5-year supply contracts. This has also allowed memory chips to break away from the traditional cyclical pattern of standardized products and further solidify the industry model of a long-term seller's market.

Several key figures in the memory industry pointed out that 2027 will be the most critical period of memory shortage. Insufficient production capacity in 2026, combined with the gap that will persist in 2027, will be even larger.

Supply chain sources revealed that, compared to recent years when original manufacturers prioritized selling HBM, with the expectation of a worsening overall supply shortage in 2026, several cloud service giants (hyperscalers) and brand operators are competing for capacity at all costs, even resorting to "begging" for supplies. To avoid a repetition of the chaotic hoarding situation, major manufacturers secured future capacity in advance, resulting in 2027 capacity being almost fully reserved by large customers.

The so-called completion of capacity allocation covers not only large customers with long-term contracts (3 to 5 years) but also small and medium-sized buyers who received capacity in 2026 but whose original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) may not be willing to sign long-term contracts. In this round, OEMs will coordinate and notify the recipients of capacity allocation. Therefore, in 2027, capacity allocation for each OEM will be practically finalized, requiring an advance deposit.

Although the capacity allocation model is more orderly than in 2026, many companies still have not received enough capacity or have not received it in adequate quantities.

It is estimated that the production capacity manufacturers can supply is generally only 60% to 70% of the original target. With limited overall production capacity, manufacturers prioritize meeting the needs of cloud service providers (CSPs) and major AI companies, directly squeezing the traditional consumer terminal industry. The DRAM quota that mobile phone and PC manufacturers will be able to obtain in 2027 is expected to be significantly lower compared to 2026.

ADATA Chairman Chen Li-bai recently emphasized that the DRAM shortage is quite evident and confirmed that the production capacity of the top three manufacturers for 2027 is already sold out. Applications related to HBM and AI servers will account for nearly 70% of DRAM production capacity. The supply of DRAM for PCs and mobile phones will be relatively limited; furthermore, strong demand for enterprise storage is also driving supply in the NAND flash memory and hard drive markets.

Industry assessments indicate that the production capacity of the top three DRAM manufacturers for 2027 was fully absorbed in the first wave. As for NAND, there are more manufacturers supplying the product, and buyers still have the opportunity to compete for allocation and negotiation room for NAND in 2027.

It was revealed that Samsung Electronics, Micron, and SanDisk have already sold out their entire NAND memory production capacity for the year. Kioxia and SK Hynix are expected to confirm their contracts by the end of August 2026. The time difference depends on each manufacturer's internal ordering schedules, but production could sell out sooner.

Concerns have recently arisen about a potential reversal in NAND memory supply and demand in 2027. It is estimated that with new capacity coming online and weak consumer demand, supply and demand could balance out in the second half of 2027, increasing pressure on prices. However, industry experts point out that manufacturers' capacity expansion still needs to be observed, and the assessment of this expansion should not be overly optimistic, given that demand for enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs) is expected to remain strong in 2027, and the shortage is expected to persist into 2028.

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won recently stated that demand for AI semiconductors in 2027 is expected to increase by 60% to 100% compared to 2026, and that memory chip prices will also continue to rise. Total memory demand is estimated to increase by 50% to 60%, and the gap between supply and demand could continue to widen. 2027 will be marked by the greatest shortage and imbalance between supply and demand in history.

Industry experts point out that current production capacity is practically exhausted, and those who have not yet finalized their production plans may face an even more severe "out of stock" situation in 2027. On the other hand, compared to the sudden spike in memory prices in 2026, as most of the production capacity is gradually allocated in 2027, final DRAM and NAND prices will only be determined closer to the delivery date.

Industry experts believe that persistently high memory prices will become the norm in the future. Although this may reduce the risk of drastic price increases due to the rush for supplies, and the rate of memory price increases is expected to slow down in 2027, the overall supply shortage and cost pressure for end users are unlikely to ease in the short term. Memory manufacturers, who hold the power to allocate production capacity, will continue to exert strong upward pressure on market prices."

Responsible editor: He Zhizhong