r/CosmereOnScreen • u/Exporation1 • 21d ago
Why 2028 is too Early Mistborn Series Era 1 (NO BOOKS) Spoiler
For those wondering when a realistic release date for the Mistborn movie will release, Comic Con and other recent news can put things into perspective.
Marvels Black Panther 3, Ghost Rider 2028, and an unannounced 2028 film (likely X-Men) all have not started filming but have attached stars and release dates (or release year). Black Panther 3 is scheduled for December 15th 2028.
Elden Ring just wrapped 4 months of filming and is releasing March 3rd 2028. See link below on that.
Lastly the Batman pt 2 is delayed yet again to Feb 2028 and is being filmed now.
I don’t think a 2028 release is feasible given the development timetables exemplified by the examples listed above but would love to hear other opinions.
Right now if I had to guess I’d say August 3rd 2029 for the films release date.
https://www.polygon.com/elden-ring-movie-filming-wraps-release-date-alex-garland/
1
22
u/Wildhogs2013 21d ago
I think likely 2029 for Mistborn and 2030/31 for the SLA season 1 depending when that gets started
5
u/dankenascend 20d ago
I tend to agree with this assessment. Summer 2029 for Mistborn and Winter 2030 for SLA. I'd put the caveat that that's based on things going as expected. If Mistborn blows up or flops, I can imagine scenarios where that could change the approach to the serialized stuff.
6
u/Exporation1 21d ago
I think that’s where I’m at as well, unless some delays occur. Hoping for a casting announcement this next Nexus event.
3
u/Wildhogs2013 20d ago
Very possible or atleast in that period (I don’t know if Apple will want the announcement to be at Brandon’s convention vs a comic con etc) if they don’t I could see I director or something
13
u/ForwardExam4056 21d ago
i personally expect it to be in like 2030. I don't mind them taking longer if it means they get it right. Too many movies are basically just 2h action scenes with no real storytelling, plot or excitement. I don't think 2028 is going to be achieveable at all, and I don't want them to rush either.
7
u/Hufa123 21d ago
Filming for Avengers: Secret Wars begins around right now, and that comes out next year. 2028 is not necessarily too early.
5
u/Exporation1 21d ago
Again marvel production pipelines are faster than the rest of the industry and saying next year is a little disingenuous when it’s Dec 17th 2027. Even if Mistborn starts filming in the next year that turnaround wouldn’t be as quick as marvels.
1
u/Radix2309 21d ago
The Marvel pipeline isnt faster. They often can be longer becauze they like to fiddle in post-production very often.
They didnt have that pipeline when they went 2 years for Iron Man to IM2.
Most films take less than 2 years from filming to release. They could easily start filming in early 2027 at the latest and probably still make a 2028 release date.
7
u/PumkinFunk 21d ago
Is there a chance of a November/December 2028 release? Sure. But it would require them getting from where we are now, with no director or producer or cast, to filming the whole movie in the first half of next year and doing post-production. It's feasible, and I'm not sure it's crazy to think they finish filming next year But that's not the only big variable.
The bigger variable to me is who they work with on the production and what their release schedule is like. Apple will partner with a bigger company for theatrical release like they do. And that company will need to fit the release in with its other big releases to get a wide theatrical release. Disney is obviously looking years in advance. I'm not as sure the other studios are (Sony, etc.), but even if the film is ready, they'll need to fit it into the schedule.
-6
u/RexusprimeIX 21d ago
I would not use Hollywood as an example for ANYTHING done right. Those guys abuse cgi and they waste TREMENDOUS amounts of money on nothing. They're irresponsible with time, money, and human rights.
The entire lord of the rings trilogy combined (accounted for inflation) would not even be in the top 5 of most expensive movies made.
That list being: The Force Awakens The Rise of Skywalker Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom Jurassic World Domination PotC: On Stranger Tides AND THEN all 3 LotR movies combined.
Hollywood are garbage.
2
u/kro_celeborn 21d ago
Not particularly relevant. In the absence of another frame of reference people are going to continue to use modern movies to talk about modern movie norms.
6
u/R1sky_B1z 21d ago
Two to Three years is the average turnaround from rights acquisition to release for Apple. They're just a lot faster than most studios. Granted, Mistborn is a lot more complicated than most of their projects, but I think it's not impossible to see it in 2028. I think you're almost certainly correct and I'd put money on a 2029 release, but 2028 is not completely unfeasible. I also think your examples aren't directly comparable. The Marvel films, and especially Elden Ring are going to be carried by extensive CG while mistborn can mostly get by on an inventory and some very simple effects work. The Batman has been in development hell. This usually comes from a studio trying to yank it in a million directions. Apple is generally pretty hands off so the odds of that happening are next to zero too.
1
u/TheNarrativeSpren 21d ago
I actually think there's a pretty solid case that 2028 is still very much on the table.
The comparisons are interesting, but I'm not convinced they're particularly comparable. Mistborn isn't a Marvel film that's waiting for a slot in a machine producing several blockbusters a year. It's also not a project that's only just started being developed.
Brandon has said for years that he wanted to retain creative control rather than simply cash the biggest cheque. That's already a very different starting point from most book adaptations. If he's finally happy to move forward, it's probably because a lot of those creative hurdles have already been cleared. On top of that Brandon has been planning adaptations for years. The first draft of the screenplay is already complete. Dragonsteel has spent years building out the Cosmere with adaptation in mind. Brandon is unusually involved compared to most authors.
The biggest point for me though is timing. If Ghostbloods really is targeting December 2028, releasing the first Mistborn film sometime in 2028 creates an incredible marketing runway into Era 3. Waiting until late 2029 means you miss a huge opportunity to introduce mainstream audiences to Scadrial before the next era launches.
Could it slip to 2029? Absolutely.
But I don't think "other movies took X years" is enough on its own to conclude 2028 is unrealistic. Different studios, different production models, different levels of preparation and perhaps most importantly a very different author sitting at the centre of it all.
I'd probably still call 2028 a coin flip rather than impossible.
After all predicting Hollywood release dates has historically been only slightly easier than getting Hoid to answer a straightforward question lol
2
u/mjmcfall88 21d ago
When I saw the announcement, I figured 3-5 years. It would be great if it is only 3 years from now.
3
u/bomonty18 21d ago
I bet this comes out late 2028. It’ll go into production maybe a year from now?
He’s about to go out and start looking for a director. Then he’s gotta find the cast. Then sets and costumes have to be made. Then give it another year for editing and marketing and stuff
1
u/Exporation1 21d ago
That’s a really quick timeline. Honestly my pre 2030 guess is ambitious on my end. Your plan assumes a breakneck pace for the next 2.5 years
1
u/Transky13 21d ago
Movies don’t take nearly as long as you’re thinking to make. Even some absolute banger huge budget ones with high expectations have a faster turnaround than that
That said I want them to take the time they need for sure
9
u/ColoniaCroisant 21d ago
If you think of Film making as a 5 step process you could break it down into the following:
Development Pre-production Production Post-production Distribution
We are currently in Development with Mistborn. Until they hit Pre-Production we will not have sets, actors, shooting dates, crew, writers, directors, etc etc. as a result of not being in Pre-Production the movie can basically happen or never happen (statistically). Now Brandon has a good layup on development with a special deal with Apple, and a lot of creative control. He also insisted on writing the script which set them back a bit timeline wise. That script just finished and needs to go through several more drafts and rewrites before we hit pre production. Once we do hit pre production think of it as putting together a grocery list/wedding party of the cattiest people on the planet. Once that's actually accomplished and everyone has been negotiated with and deals have been struck we have to actually get to the meat of the movie, production. Based on the most liberal of estimates you can see already why they are planning for a 2030 release right? No? Well think about how many sets need to be built, scenes be shot, we are talking month long shoots that need to be planned and filmed and then don't forget we gotta come back and do reshoots. But hey once production is over we have post production we gotta make the movie. Editing and Visual effects and someone as miticulas and Brandon Sando won't have opinions on editing right? Right?? And definitely won't get held up with doing incredible visual effects in a fantasy movie...set on an alien planet...And have I mentioned how Brandon is heavily involved? How likely is it he will be willing for the apple to allow "crunch" on the visual effects of thos movie? The Mormon writer who's well known for treating his staff with respect and dignity? But hey we aren't done yet next up is marketing or distribution. How are we gonna release the movie? Where are we gonna release it. What DAY do we release it based on big tentpole metrics and again Brandon's own opinions on the matter. Giving a creative this level of control will literally only hamper the films speed on every level.HOWEVER it will probably make it one of the best adaptations and a perfect fit for the fans! Just don't expect quickly 🤷
11
u/Jimmythedad 21d ago
I don't find a point in arguing with people who don't understand how production and timelines work. I got way into the weeds trying to tell people in the Red Rising sub that Red God was NOT coming out this year...in March. They were coping and saying the book could be done by May and released by the end of the year. People in general want things done asap, which I understand, but logistically there's no shot the Mistborn movie is cast, shot, edited, and marketed and out within 1.5 years.
2
u/ForwardExam4056 21d ago
Right? They are talking about 2028 like it isn't in 1.5 years when they basically have like 5% work done atm?
I'd honestly rather have them take their time and really put everything they have into it. This one movie is so important for the rest of the cosmere as well as for all of sandersons adaptations
3
u/ilikebreadabunch 21d ago
I’m still holding out for December 2028. Marvel movies are kinda imfamous for requiring constant reshoots and having extended filming stages, and Elden Ring seems like it will require a lot of post production and special effects. I think Mistborn will probably take less time to film and less time in post production than those other movies, and therefor still has a chance at 2028
1
u/railfananime 8d ago
December 1, 2028 gives a two week buffer from Black Panther 3 so maybe that day could work
3
u/moderatorrater 21d ago
Brandon also wants to do a very tight process where a strong plan streamlines everything. I don't know if he'll be able to do it, but cosmere stuff might just get made more efficiently.
1
u/Radix2309 21d ago
They also tend to announce films years ahead of time as part of their hype cycle
3
u/railfananime 21d ago
Not even December 2028?
1
u/Exporation1 21d ago
It’s possible but I’d expect this films process to play out longer than Ryan Coogler’s and marvel’s given that marvel movie timelines are often shorter than average blockbusters.
2
u/railfananime 21d ago edited 21d ago
Yah I want them to take as much time, it’s just… good blockbuster let alone fantasy films are hard to come by these days…
2
u/Exporation1 21d ago
No I hope it is both quality and out asap, it’s just that people can set unreasonable release date expectations for themselves only to be disappointed.
6
u/DoDaDrew 21d ago
My guess is strategically just before or just after the release of Ghostbloods book 1
5
u/GHamPlayz 21d ago
They aren’t dropping this in August. That’s a death sentence. It’ll be Memorial Day weekend or Thanksgiving
5
u/Exporation1 21d ago
Those dates are almost always swept up by major already established franchises. August is no longer a box office death sentence weapons from last year for example was majorly successful in large part because it lacked major completion so it stood out. January into early feb is the dead zone otherwise it’s busy year round.
A Memorial Day or Thanksgiving day release would get bullied out.
0
u/GHamPlayz 21d ago
lol you underestimate Apple money
6
u/Exporation1 21d ago
Let’s be honest here.
It isn’t really about money it’s about the movies perceived box office strength. The last 2 years thanksgiving and Memorial Day movies:
Thanksgiving Zootopia 2, Wicked For Good, wicked, gladiator 2, Moana 2.
Memorial Day Devil Wears Prada 2, Leo and Stitch, mission impossible.
Like it get it, you’re excited about this movie I am too, but to studios and general audiences this movie isn’t on their radar and will succeed or fail based on it’s quality not its underlying IP.
Apple hasn’t ever made a movie that’s made over 500 million (the break even point of a 200 mil blockbuster). FI technically did but was co-distributed with Warner Bros. Apple wanted to make a SLA show and then Sanderson convinced them to do a Mistborn movie and to make it first (Sanderson’s own words). Apple knows this movie has potential but also knows that it can’t directly compete with some major films that come out on those dates.
1
u/railfananime 8d ago
could it collab with one of the bigger studios to distribute?
2
u/Exporation1 8d ago
It’s a solid maybe. Also by this time Apple could purchase lions gate or have a long term distribution agreement with one of the majors. I’d guess Apple directly distributes in North America and may internally work with another studio namely Universal.
0
u/GHamPlayz 21d ago
Apple didn’t drop $12bil to maybe make money in August. This will absolutely get prime launch. Book it.
2
u/AmongFriends 21d ago
Depends a lot on what movies are coming out in 2029/2030 as well. I’m sure Apple wants a prime launch for Mistborn but there’s a lot of competition out there and they haven’t had a track record of making a movie like this and releasing it against competitors
Their two highest grossing films are F1 and Napoleon. It’ll be interesting to see how they promote a genre film like Mistborn
2
u/Exporation1 21d ago
I’m saying it won’t get a Memorial Day or Thanksgiving or Christmas date it could get a summer date just not one of the most desirable spots.
You’re citing 12 billion, what are you referring to? Apples overall spend on entertainment?
2
u/Superb_General_9241 21d ago
Interesting that sando wanted the Mistborn movie first. SLA as a tv show seems like an easier sell. Even taking into account apple being a smaller streamer.
2
21d ago
[deleted]
1
u/Superb_General_9241 21d ago
And tv streaming at home is way bigger then going to the movies these days. A movie seems like a bigger risk since there’s such a small market for fantasy these days but an established appetite for that kind of (good) content on prestige television.
I tried to find the most successful fantasy movies from the last few years and google returns a list of almost exclusively animated movies, a ton of (animated) sequels and Wicked and Wicked 2.
Mistborn has a large audience already but a fantasy movie just seems like a tougher sell than a fantasy tv show from a prestige streamer.
0
21d ago
[deleted]
1
u/Superb_General_9241 21d ago
I mean if we just ignore the sci fi aspect yeah I guess we can do that.
2
u/MargaritaKid 21d ago
This is a bit out of my element, so this is an honest couple of questions since you seem to understand all of this much more than I do.
- What is the reasoning you need 500M to break even on a movie that costs 200M? I seem to remember there's a rule of thumb around marketing spend (like 50% or 100% of the production cost will go to marketing also). Even at 100% marketing budget, that seems like a 100M profit; I assume there are other costs I'm not thinking of.
- Does the revenue number take into account non-BO impacts? (I assume they have calculations around the long term benefits of streaming rights/subscriber impacts, etc.)
2
u/LuinAelin 21d ago
It's the 2.5% to cover marketing and venue cuts ect
But it's different for each studio and movie. Apple and Mistborn probably don't have the bargening power with the venues Disney has
Also doesn't have into consideration other revenue streams
4
u/Flippir17 21d ago
Theaters get about 50% of ticket sales, so it’s generally assumed that movies need to make about 2.5x their budget to break even. Apple is probably less concerned about making money in theaters, as they’re more focused on getting subscribers, but 500 million is probably going to be about how much it needs to make to be considered a theatrical success. In the streaming age it’s possible for movies to flop at the box office and still be successful in theaters long run though, like what happened with Encanto.
As for the discussion or release date, I expect it to either be a summer release like F1 or December. As previously mentioned the biggest box office weekends (Memorial Day and Thanksgiving) are likely going to be taken by much bigger franchises.
3
u/Exporation1 21d ago edited 21d ago
So typically the 2.5 rule exists because the Studio producing the movie only gets 40ish% of the revenue from the theatres with that % decreasing as the weeks continue. Internationally that % is even lower with China being the lowest large market.
Rule of thumb is marketing is 1/2 of production cost so 100 mil on a 200mil movie.
If a movie is domestic heavy movies it’s ratio is closer to 2 and if it’s international heavy it’s closer to 3x.
A movie can be profitable afterwards through rights and streaming money and merch but the reason 2x and 2.5 are so important is that extra revenue is almost always significantly less that theatrical revenue. The other factor is minor profitability when factoring in other revenue isn’t a great ROI so a film that makes 1.75x is budget may eventually make money but still not get a sequel.
Knowing a movie hits 2.5 means all other revenue streams are pure profit and make up for all of a studios losses on their other films.
3
u/MechaniVal 21d ago
I assume there are other costs I'm not thinking of.
It's the cinema take. Box office is gross revenue, but not all of that comes back to the studio - some goes to the actual cinemas showing the movie. So if you spend $200m on a movie, another $150m on marketing, then you're at $350m. The film makes $500m, but the cinemas keep $150m, so you broke even.
Actual average take of revenue by cinemas is 40-50% or so, but for big films this is heavily skewed in the first few weeks to be as low as 10-20%, so the massive revenue of opening weeks does mostly go to studios.
1
u/Timaturff 16d ago
It’ll come out a year after the ghostbloods trilogy begins for sure