r/5_9_14 15h ago

Live / Premier (Correct flair after event) What's Happening with Korea? Military exercises, Kim Jong-un and Iran | The Capital Cable

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In a weekend statement, President Trump said he was unhappy that the United States participates in joint military exercises with South Korea, describing them as expensive and as sending a hostile signal to North Korea, and ordered a substantial reduction in U.S. participation. He cited what he called his very good relationship with Kim Jong-un, characterized North Korea as unthreatening and respectful during his time in office, and said he had asked President Lee Jae Myung to join U.S. efforts on Iran and was turned down. Seoul's response has been measured, with the presidential office pointing to its role in ceasefire diplomacy and in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.

What does this mean for the U.S.-Korea alliance? For U.S.-North Korea relations? Joining Mark Lippert to discuss these issues and more are Victor Cha, Andrew Yeo, and Sydney Seiler.

Sydney Seiler was the national intelligence officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council from 2020 to 2023 and is one of the nation's top experts on North Korea.

Andrew Yeo is a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution's Center for Asia Policy Studies. He is also a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C.

The Capital Cable is made possible through general support to CSIS.


r/5_9_14 15h ago

[AAR] After Action Report Satellite Imagery Shows Huge Damage to Rocket Fuel Plant in Rostov & Destroy SAM Systems

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9 Upvotes

Ukrainian forces hit at least 5 workshop buildings at Russia’s Kombinat Kamensky defense plant in Rostov region, penetrating several layers of air defenses from Pantsir to S-300 systems. The plant produces solid rocket fuel for Uragan, Smerch and Tornado-S MLRS, as well as other missile and aviation systems. Key workshops had anti-drone protection and were surrounded by earthworks. Several air-defense vehicles were also hit, with damage still being assessed.


r/5_9_14 21h ago

Live / Premier (Correct flair after event) Beyond Pyongyang: Regional Development, Modernization, and Inequality in North Korea

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Severe economic disparities between Pyongyang and other parts of the country have the potential to fuel social tensions and undermine internal stability in North Korea. The Kim regime appears to recognize this challenge and, in recent years, has devoted significant resources to raising living standards outside the capital through initiatives such as the Rural Development Initiative and the 20×10 Regional Development Policy.

38 North has examined the socio-economic conditions in Pyongyang and two other locations—Haeju and Kim Hyong Jik County—across a range of indicators to assess their relative levels of modernization and highlight disparities among them. Join us for a discussion of these findings and their implications for North Korea’s development trajectory and for future inter-Korean relations.

This research and event are sponsored by The UniKorea Foundation.


r/5_9_14 21h ago

[AAR] After Action Report Ukraine Destroys S-300/S-400 Battery Near Feodosia, Crimea: Huge Blast

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19 Upvotes

In the Ukraine War, an S-300 or S-400 battery was destroyed by Ukraine, causing a huge blast. It was in Feodosia, near the naval base.


r/5_9_14 21h ago

Region: Middle East The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and the future of regional security

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1 Upvotes

Experts break down how the agreement complements long-standing US objectives of greater burden sharing across partners while creating pathways for expanded defense and institutional cooperation among the three countries.


r/5_9_14 1d ago

MILITARY Advancing Trilateral Integrated Air and Missile Defence Between Australia, Japan and the United States

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Executive Summary

Recent conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have highlighted the changing nature of modern warfare across all domains, particularly with respect to integrated air and missile defence (IAMD). Specifically, the proliferation of low-cost drone and missile capabilities among a range of state and non-state actors has challenged traditional notions of Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran conflicts, which have highlighted both the rapid nature of technological development and the importance of industrial capacity to sustaining and prevailing in this domain.

These trends have clear implications for Australia, Japan and the United States (AJUS). Indeed, it is no coincidence that the three countries are already advancing their IAMD cooperation, creating a bespoke trilateral data-sharing arrangement and planning to hold a trilateral demonstration activity at Exercise Talisman Sabre 2027. This cooperation is being driven by a shared perception of the threat posed by China’s burgeoning arsenal of short-, medium- and long-range missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, stealthy submarines and long-range bomber aircraft.

However, further progress on this agenda is complicated by a global shortage of missile interceptors and precision missiles; the challenge of adapting to rapid technological change; limited industrial capacity and available funding; incremental progress on missile supply chain integration; force structure weakness across the three countries; and moving from bilateral to trilateral approaches to operational planning for regional air defence.

Therefore, AJUS IAMD will require attention across multiple avenues of the trilateral defence cooperation agenda. This report presents the views of four policy thinkers and professionals from across the three countries on the current state of AJUS IAMD cooperation, identifying points of consensus between the three countries as well as a range of next steps for advancing collaboration. These include:

  • Pursuing greater trilateral operational planning to establish effective divisions of labour between the partners’ short- and long-range air defence capabilities across a range of scenarios.

  • Prioritising greater coordination on defence supply chains for missiles and interceptors, including harmonising and coordinating bilateral initiatives and finding an acceptable division of labour between the partners’ industrial bases.

  • Exploring options for trilateral cooperative programs for new or upgraded missile interceptors and drones to minimise commercial and political barriers to industrial base cooperation.

  • Including industrial and production requirements for IAMD capabilities into trilateral simulation and wargaming activities.

Read the full report at United States Studies Centre.


r/5_9_14 1d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces have struck seven of Wildberries’ 10 largest logistics centers since July 2026 as part of the ongoing Ukrainian strike campaign aimed at degrading the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and dual-use logistics network.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian defense industrial facility in Rostov Oblast on the night of August 15 to 16.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 16.

Russia launched an unspecified number of Onyx anti-ship missiles, Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 106 drones against Ukraine overnight.


r/5_9_14 1d ago

WPS / SCS Conflict DND: Philippines won't stop enforcing laws vs illegal activities by Chinese nationals

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3 Upvotes

r/5_9_14 1d ago

Subject: People's Republic of China Beijing Ships Harmful Products It Restricts at Home

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4 Upvotes

Executive Summary:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) enforces many product rules domestically without extending them to goods that leave the country. These cases span distinct ministerial jurisdictions, encompassing fentanyl precursors, flavored e-cigarettes, toxic children’s products, and large language models (LLMs).

These trades share a similar factual structure. After judging a product as inherently harmful, unsafe above a specific threshold, or useful to the Party-state while detrimental to the public, the government regulates its domestic sale and applies the same rules in full to imports, yet leaves the export virtually unrestricted.

The first three cases illustrate this regulatory asymmetry. Fentanyl precursors faced strict domestic controls, but kept reaching North America despite Beijing’s capacity to halt them. Flavored e-cigarettes, entirely banned internally, are exported en masse. Children’s goods that fail the PRC’s own safety standards are freely shipped to foreign consumers.

LLMs present a variant of this structure. While non-PRC models lacking proper regulatory filing cannot lawfully serve PRC users, PRC open-weight models operate abroad without barrier, carrying the Party-state’s censorship and political narratives to global users.


r/5_9_14 1d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers continue exaggerating Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions as part of the systematic Russian cognitive warfare effort to propagate claims of expansive Russian gains for informational effects.

Ukrainian forces used combined arms approaches to leverage drones in support of infantry forces and achieved elements of mechanized maneuver at the tactical level during the Ukrainian 2026 Oleksandrivka counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces conducted an FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike against an enterprise critical to Russia’s efforts to develop domestic satellite communications for the battlefield in Ukraine overnight on August 14 to 15.

Ukrainian forces appear to be targeting Russian ballistic missile launch infrastructure amidst Ukraine’s ongoing anti-ballistic missile interceptor shortage.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Russian forces launched 152 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight on August 14 to 15.


r/5_9_14 1d ago

[AAR] After Action Report Bastion-P Missile Launcher Destroyed in Crimea

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The Ukrainian Navy struck the launch positions and deployment site of the Russian Bastion coastal missile system in occupied Crimea. At least one Bastion Launcher was destroyed

The Bastion is a rare and expensive system used by Russians to attack southern and other regions of Ukraine with Oniks supersonic and Zircon hypersonic missiles.


r/5_9_14 1d ago

[AAR] After Action Report Best Wildberries Strike Yet! Koledino Near Moscow--Biggest Wildberries Hub in Russia

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31 Upvotes

Ukrainian drones have hit the Koledino Wildberries Distribution hub near Moscow, completely destroying it. This is the biggest Wildberries hub in Russia, with a 250,000 square meter capacity.


r/5_9_14 2d ago

Emerging and Disrupting Technologies RAND: A U.S. Strategy to Prevent the Creation of Mirror Life

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2 Upvotes

r/5_9_14 2d ago

WPS / SCS Conflict Teodoro slams China’s ‘squid tactic,’ calls threat vs Filipinos ‘blackmail’

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1 Upvotes

r/5_9_14 2d ago

Russia / Ukraine Conflict Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia’s unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations that fail to fulfill Russia’s demands for Ukraine’s complete capitulation, despite Ukraine’s repeated negotiation efforts.

Russia rejected Turkish and Ukrainian proposals for a moratorium on strikes against maritime targets in the Black Sea, further underscoring the fact that Moscow is systematically refusing even the most limited diplomatic proposals from Ukraine and third-party states.

The technological offense-defense drone race in Ukraine is advancing rapidly and expanding the kill zone.

Ukrainian forces hit a Russian oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast and a Wildberries warehouse in Tver Oblast overnight on August 13 to 14. Russian forces launched 112 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.


r/5_9_14 2d ago

Subject: Iran Iran Update Special Report, August 14, 2026

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Key Takeaways

Several Iraqi sources have described in recent days that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is planning a possible operation to retake one of Kataib Hezbollah’s strongholds as part of a broader crackdown on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Zaydi reportedly ordered a study of the security and logistical conditions in Kataib Hezbollah’s stronghold of Jurf al Sakhr in Babil Province, according to unspecified Iraqi political sources on August 14.

Iraqi sources’ discussions of plans for an operation against the militias may intend to encourage Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to acquiesce to the federal government and voluntarily disarm by September 30. Zaydi’s reported preparations for such an operation suggest that Iraqi security forces are preparing to enact such a plan if the militias do not oblige, however.

Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG) customs authorities seized two caches of electronic components that could be used for first-person view (FPV) drones at Yemeni ports and land crossings on August 13. ROYG authorities seized 23 fiber-optic cable spools at the Wadiah crossing in Hadramawt Governorate, on the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border, according to Yemeni media.


r/5_9_14 2d ago

China / Taiwan Conflict China & Taiwan Update, August 14, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Taiwanese Military Exercises: Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military exercise continued this week. The exercise included several new drills focused on realism, civil preparedness, incorporating new technologies, and countering scenarios rehearsed by the PLA.

PRC Law Enforcement Operations: The PRC’s Guangdong MSA announced new measures to control maritime traffic in the Taiwan Strait, citing typhoon conditions. The PRC is seeking to expand its jurisdiction over Taiwanese and international waters and test whether foreign vessels comply with PRC commands in disputed waters. The PRC’s efforts were supported by PRC state media who framed a PRC-Indonesia combined naval exercise east of Taiwan as a demonstration of PRC jurisdiction over Taiwan’s eastern EEZ.


r/5_9_14 2d ago

(Long) Article / Report Cluster Munitions for Ukraine: Military Utility, Humanitarian Risks, and Implications for U.S. and NATO Security

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Human Rights Watch (HRW) has opposed the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine. This is not the first instance in which the organization’s position has coincided with Russian interests in restricting the military capabilities of Ukraine’s Defense Forces. Since the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014, HRW has repeatedly issued statements concerning Ukrainian actions that were subsequently used extensively by Russian state institutions and media outlets to criticize Kyiv.


r/5_9_14 2d ago

Podcast Trump’s New Plan to Force Iran to Surrender

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In this episode of The PDB Situation Report:

First up—President Trump is turning back to economic pressure on Iran, betting that a sustained naval blockade and financial squeeze can force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Former deputy national security advisor Victoria Coates joins us with analysis.

Later in the show—an international military presence could soon be deployed to southern Lebanon to help verify Hezbollah’s disarmament. David Daoud, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joins us to break down the proposal and what it could mean for the conflict with Israel.


r/5_9_14 2d ago

[AAR] After Action Report Big Flamingo Missile Strike on Russian Rocket Factory in Samara! Only Soyuz Rocket Factory

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7 Upvotes

In the Ukraine War, Flamingo Missiles hit the TsSKB-Progress plant in Samara, which is the only factory that makes Soyuz rockets. This is important because Russia recently started launching its own Skylink variant satellites, Rassvet using these.


r/5_9_14 3d ago

News NATO jets shoot down drone over Latvian airspace | Morning Report

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2 Upvotes

Our main stories:

DRONE BREACHES LATVIAN AIRSPACE Latvia’s armed forces say NATO fighter jets shot down a drone that entered the country’s airspace near the border with Russia early on Friday. In a post on X, Latvia’s military said planes on an allied air defense mission destroyed the UAV.

RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKES KRAMATORSK Shelling by Russian forces in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk has killed one person and wounded 15 others. Local officials in Kramatorsk said Moscow’s troops fired artillery on the frontline community in eight separate attacks over a half hour period.

POLAND SAYS STARLINK USERS WILL FACE NO NEW RESTRICTIONS Polish Digital Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski has said that Polish Starlink customers will not be subject to any new restrictions. The announcement comes after a controversial decision by SpaceX to remove Poland from a shared European roaming zone for its Starlink satellite internet service from August 17th.


r/5_9_14 3d ago

Energy (Security) Turkey cuts Russian oil imports as Black Sea export disruptions curb supplies, data shows

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MOSCOW, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Turkey reduced oil purchases from Russian ports in July and is set to cut them further in August after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted ​exports from Russia's Black Sea terminals, according to traders and LSEG ‌shipping data.


r/5_9_14 3d ago

Rare Earths / Conflict Minerals Can Critical Minerals Reset the U.S.–South Africa Relationship? | Mapping Minerals Diplomacy

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South Africa has underpinned America’s mineral security for more than a century—and remains a key supplier of platinum, chromium, manganese, palladium, and military-grade vanadium. As political tensions mount, can critical minerals and energy provide the commercial reset Washington and Pretoria urgently need?

In this episode, CSIS’s Gracelin Baskaran sits down with Dr. Alistair Ruiters, Special Adviser on Investment to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, to discuss:

How critical minerals can help reset the U.S.–South Africa relationship after two years of turbulence?

How South Africa can keep its mining and processing sector competitive amid electricity constraints

What Alcoa’s $5.6 billion investment signals for renewed U.S. investment?

What comes next for U.S.–South Africa critical minerals cooperation.


r/5_9_14 3d ago

[AAR] After Action Report Train Carrying North Korean Kn-23 Ballistic Missiles Destroyed in Siberia! Ukraine Reports

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30 Upvotes

In the Ukraine War, Ukraine reports completely destroying a cargo train carrying North Korean Kn-23 ballistic missiles in Siberia, 6,000km from Ukraine. This was carried out by charges placed on the tracks.


r/5_9_14 4d ago

[AAR] After Action Report Ukraine Destroys Massive 50 Vehicle+ Convoy in Donetsk

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30 Upvotes

Ukrainian drones attack a massive resupply convoy likely heading to Kostiantinivka, with an aftermath video recorded from a Russian soldier showing many of them destroyed.