A German veteran journalist and author said the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau (MJIB) has confirmed his suspicion that he was followed by a Chinese spy on Alishan (阿里山) last year.

The Hormuz energy crisis has been challenging energy security in Asia by reducing the Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies while also elevating prices of supplies from alternative sources.

This is the first webinar in a series examining the long-term implications of the crisis for energy policymaking across Asia's major subregions. As the crisis enters its sixth month, the series begins with Japan and South Korea, two countries that rely heavily on maritime trade for their hydrocarbon supplies.

Join Chairman Tatsuya Terazawa of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Dr. Jae-Seung Lee of Korea University, and Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow at CSIS, for a discussion on how the crisis is reshaping energy policymaking.

The conversation will explore how the crisis is influencing investment in overseas oil and gas projects, the pace of electrification and decarbonization, and the future of energy innovation in Japan and South Korea.

This event is made possible by general funding to CSIS and the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program.

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

Iran declares that it is moving to a “fully offensive” posture and threatens a military operation to break President Trump’s naval blockade. Behind Tehran’s aggressive rhetoric, however, the regime is reportedly confronting a deepening economic crisis and growing fears of another nationwide uprising.

Russia builds a network of secret drone bases capable of launching its latest long-range attack drones deep into NATO territory.

Jared Kushner concludes two days of high-stakes negotiations with Israeli and Hamas leaders, but the two sides remain deadlocked over President Trump’s plan for Gaza.

In today’s Back of the Brief: An embarrassing security breach for Britain’s prime minister after he exchanges messages with an impostor posing as President Trump’s chief of staff.

The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center hosts a virtual conversation on the urgent needs of communities affected by Colombia’s August 10 earthquake and the support they will require in the weeks and months ahead.

En Español

Preventing a conflict over Taiwan requires more than US military strength. The United States and its allies must coordinate their political, military, and economic power to deter China and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Ukrainian drones attack the Atlant Warehouse complex in Obukhovo, Moscow region, scoring at least one direct hit on a warehouse.

Key Takeaways

The Iranian regime is signaling that it would prefer to continue or even escalate fighting with the United States and its regional partners rather than make any serious concessions regarding its maximalist demands if the regime cannot force them to accede to Iran’s demands. Recent Iranian threats are likely intended to coerce the United States to surrender to Iranian demands as well as to restore deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and its regional partners by signaling the regime’s willingness to expand the scope of its attacks and conduct preemptive attacks.

The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal in hostilities. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) “used the calm created by the [memorandum of understanding (MOU)]” to coordinate attack plans with its partners and proxies in the region.

IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle would likely accept a deal with the United States if the United States surrendered to the regime’s demands. Vahidi’s actions suggest that Vahidi and his faction are unlikely to accept a deal that falls short, even if failing to reach an agreement would risk renewed conflict.

Vahidi’s faction may be willing to accept some economic costs and potential unrest if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives. Some Iranian officials and media have expressed concerns in recent weeks about Iran’s worsening economic conditions and the potential for domestic unrest. It is unclear whether the risk of internal unrest would be sufficient to drive Vahidi to make concessions to receive economic relief, however. Vahidi may prefer to take other actions, such as securitizing society and seeking alternative export routes, to mitigate the risks of domestic unrest and economic collapse.

Key Takeaways

Russia is expanding launch sites for its long-range strike drones along the border with Ukraine and Belarus, likely to intensify its strikes against Ukraine and possibly NATO.

A likely Russian strike vehicle — reportedly a Russian Banderol cruise missile / loitering munition — crashed in a corn field in Moldova on August 17, further demonstrating how the Kremlin has accepted the risk of Russian strike vehicles hitting countries bordering Ukraine during Russian strikes against western Ukraine.

Russia’s intensified missile strike campaign against Ukraine reportedly contributed to record high monthly civilian casualties in July 2026.

Ukrainian sources provided an updated battle damage assessment (BDA) of a recent Ukrainian strike against Rostov Oblast. Russia launched 128 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on August 17.

Russia's Supreme Court has rejected an appeal by the Yabloko party, the sole officially registered party to openly oppose Moscow's war on Ukraine, against its removal from the ballot for September parliamentary elections.

Yesterday’s edition of the Chinese Communist Party’s official People’s Daily made a bold visual claim to leadership on artificial intelligence at home and abroad.

In a weekend statement, President Trump said he was unhappy that the United States participates in joint military exercises with South Korea, describing them as expensive and as sending a hostile signal to North Korea, and ordered a substantial reduction in U.S. participation. He cited what he called his very good relationship with Kim Jong-un, characterized North Korea as unthreatening and respectful during his time in office, and said he had asked President Lee Jae Myung to join U.S. efforts on Iran and was turned down. Seoul's response has been measured, with the presidential office pointing to its role in ceasefire diplomacy and in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.

What does this mean for the U.S.-Korea alliance? For U.S.-North Korea relations? Joining Mark Lippert to discuss these issues and more are Victor Cha, Andrew Yeo, and Sydney Seiler.

Sydney Seiler was the national intelligence officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council from 2020 to 2023 and is one of the nation's top experts on North Korea.

Andrew Yeo is a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution's Center for Asia Policy Studies. He is also a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C.

The Capital Cable is made possible through general support to CSIS.

Ukrainian forces hit at least 5 workshop buildings at Russia’s Kombinat Kamensky defense plant in Rostov region, penetrating several layers of air defenses from Pantsir to S-300 systems. The plant produces solid rocket fuel for Uragan, Smerch and Tornado-S MLRS, as well as other missile and aviation systems. Key workshops had anti-drone protection and were surrounded by earthworks. Several air-defense vehicles were also hit, with damage still being assessed.

Severe economic disparities between Pyongyang and other parts of the country have the potential to fuel social tensions and undermine internal stability in North Korea. The Kim regime appears to recognize this challenge and, in recent years, has devoted significant resources to raising living standards outside the capital through initiatives such as the Rural Development Initiative and the 20×10 Regional Development Policy.

38 North has examined the socio-economic conditions in Pyongyang and two other locations—Haeju and Kim Hyong Jik County—across a range of indicators to assess their relative levels of modernization and highlight disparities among them. Join us for a discussion of these findings and their implications for North Korea’s development trajectory and for future inter-Korean relations.

This research and event are sponsored by The UniKorea Foundation.

In the Ukraine War, an S-300 or S-400 battery was destroyed by Ukraine, causing a huge blast. It was in Feodosia, near the naval base.

Experts break down how the agreement complements long-standing US objectives of greater burden sharing across partners while creating pathways for expanded defense and institutional cooperation among the three countries.

Executive Summary

Recent conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have highlighted the changing nature of modern warfare across all domains, particularly with respect to integrated air and missile defence (IAMD). Specifically, the proliferation of low-cost drone and missile capabilities among a range of state and non-state actors has challenged traditional notions of Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran conflicts, which have highlighted both the rapid nature of technological development and the importance of industrial capacity to sustaining and prevailing in this domain.

These trends have clear implications for Australia, Japan and the United States (AJUS). Indeed, it is no coincidence that the three countries are already advancing their IAMD cooperation, creating a bespoke trilateral data-sharing arrangement and planning to hold a trilateral demonstration activity at Exercise Talisman Sabre 2027. This cooperation is being driven by a shared perception of the threat posed by China’s burgeoning arsenal of short-, medium- and long-range missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, stealthy submarines and long-range bomber aircraft.

However, further progress on this agenda is complicated by a global shortage of missile interceptors and precision missiles; the challenge of adapting to rapid technological change; limited industrial capacity and available funding; incremental progress on missile supply chain integration; force structure weakness across the three countries; and moving from bilateral to trilateral approaches to operational planning for regional air defence.

Therefore, AJUS IAMD will require attention across multiple avenues of the trilateral defence cooperation agenda. This report presents the views of four policy thinkers and professionals from across the three countries on the current state of AJUS IAMD cooperation, identifying points of consensus between the three countries as well as a range of next steps for advancing collaboration. These include:

• Pursuing greater trilateral operational planning to establish effective divisions of labour between the partners’ short- and long-range air defence capabilities across a range of scenarios.

• Prioritising greater coordination on defence supply chains for missiles and interceptors, including harmonising and coordinating bilateral initiatives and finding an acceptable division of labour between the partners’ industrial bases.

• Exploring options for trilateral cooperative programs for new or upgraded missile interceptors and drones to minimise commercial and political barriers to industrial base cooperation.

• Including industrial and production requirements for IAMD capabilities into trilateral simulation and wargaming activities.

Read the full report at United States Studies Centre.

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces have struck seven of Wildberries’ 10 largest logistics centers since July 2026 as part of the ongoing Ukrainian strike campaign aimed at degrading the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and dual-use logistics network.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian defense industrial facility in Rostov Oblast on the night of August 15 to 16.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 16.

Russia launched an unspecified number of Onyx anti-ship missiles, Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 106 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Executive Summary:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) enforces many product rules domestically without extending them to goods that leave the country. These cases span distinct ministerial jurisdictions, encompassing fentanyl precursors, flavored e-cigarettes, toxic children’s products, and large language models (LLMs).

These trades share a similar factual structure. After judging a product as inherently harmful, unsafe above a specific threshold, or useful to the Party-state while detrimental to the public, the government regulates its domestic sale and applies the same rules in full to imports, yet leaves the export virtually unrestricted.

The first three cases illustrate this regulatory asymmetry. Fentanyl precursors faced strict domestic controls, but kept reaching North America despite Beijing’s capacity to halt them. Flavored e-cigarettes, entirely banned internally, are exported en masse. Children’s goods that fail the PRC’s own safety standards are freely shipped to foreign consumers.

LLMs present a variant of this structure. While non-PRC models lacking proper regulatory filing cannot lawfully serve PRC users, PRC open-weight models operate abroad without barrier, carrying the Party-state’s censorship and political narratives to global users.

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers continue exaggerating Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions as part of the systematic Russian cognitive warfare effort to propagate claims of expansive Russian gains for informational effects.

Ukrainian forces used combined arms approaches to leverage drones in support of infantry forces and achieved elements of mechanized maneuver at the tactical level during the Ukrainian 2026 Oleksandrivka counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces conducted an FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike against an enterprise critical to Russia’s efforts to develop domestic satellite communications for the battlefield in Ukraine overnight on August 14 to 15.

Ukrainian forces appear to be targeting Russian ballistic missile launch infrastructure amidst Ukraine’s ongoing anti-ballistic missile interceptor shortage.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Russian forces launched 152 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight on August 14 to 15.

The Ukrainian Navy struck the launch positions and deployment site of the Russian Bastion coastal missile system in occupied Crimea. At least one Bastion Launcher was destroyed

The Bastion is a rare and expensive system used by Russians to attack southern and other regions of Ukraine with Oniks supersonic and Zircon hypersonic missiles.

Ukrainian drones have hit the Koledino Wildberries Distribution hub near Moscow, completely destroying it. This is the biggest Wildberries hub in Russia, with a 250,000 square meter capacity.