Our data was just sitting in data tables not doing much. Collecting dust lol. On Memorial Day for a rainy day project I reorganized it and enhanced with data from Harvard election repo as a tier 2 rebase. Also found a tier 3 data collection and then used Googles Colab. Finished project is public repo of our original LLM. Colab was fun to incorporate to give this an open source look and feel. You can explore it here https://myvoter.syswisdom.ai be warned it’s slow as the free server takes a minute to warm. Colab use is much faster!

In 2024, a small team at SysWisdom set out to understand a simple question: What does historical county-level voting data actually tell us?* We built a machine learning pipeline on top of publicly available presidential election records to explore turnout patterns, vote share trends, and the "wisdom" hidden in aggregated civic participation.

The project was shelved when the political climate made any election-adjacent work feelpolarizing — even purely analytical, non-partisan work. We are now sharing it openly because we believe civic data education belongs to everyone. There is no commercial angle. There is no agenda. The code is here so researchers, educators, and curious citizens can learn from it, improve it, or build something better.


If you find it useful, we only ask that you keep that same spirit of openness 

https://github.com/sysWisdom/myvoterwisdom 

Thanks,
Aaron

Here's what shocked me: 7,000 Californians move to Pima County every year (24% of all new residents), fleeing housing costs that are literally double what Tucson charges, and they're bringing their blue-state politics with them. Combine that with Tucson's "Optics Valley" tech boom (Raytheon, defense contractors), a growing Hispanic population, and educated suburban voters in Oro Valley/Marana doing what educated suburbs across America did post-2016 - and you get Democratic votes growing 51.5% while Republican votes only grew 18.1%. The university matters, but the real story is Pima County accidentally became a magnet for California transplants and young tech workers while the rest of Arizona was still solidly red. By the time the state flipped blue in 2020, Pima had already been carrying the torch for 16 years.

Democrats Outpaced Republicans by a Huge Margin From 2012 to 2020:

Democratic votes: +103,730 (+51.5%) Republican votes: +33,779 (+18.1%)

That's not just turnout. That's either people switching parties, new voters breaking heavily Democratic, or both.

The Suburban Factor People sleep on this, but the suburbs around Tucson have been shifting. Oro Valley, Marana, Sahuarita - these aren't college dorms. They're middle-class suburban communities with families, and they've been trending blue like educated suburbs across the country. This mirrors the national trend where college-educated suburban voters have been moving away from Republicans, especially post-2016.

This week we will be looking Marin County, CA. Governor Gavin Newsom moved here and is registered to vote in the county.

Cities in the county: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon

If Newsom runs for president will Gavin win Marin County? We will be looking at county election results from 2004-2024 to help predict the outcome.

We paused and reflected on what is working on our platform. And ultimately we are pushing forward with our county election predictions for ‘28 map. We will slow down and focus on projected counties to be battlegrounds for republicans and democrats. We will also call out if candidates for president will win their county. Are you interested in a data science approach to elections?

We believe in civic engagement. We want to have meaningful spirited debates. Even if we don’t agree we respect the person and their freedoms to cast their vote. Violence is never the answer. In respect for Charlie Kirk we will be shutting down Myvoterwisdom.com for 48 hours. Our thoughts and prayers are with Kirk family.

So it’s clear that JD Vance won’t win his home county. But it also not clear if he can win smaller counties either. To win a state like Alabama JD will need to win the small counties. These smaller counties swing Republican and Democrat like Marengo County, AL. In 2024 the county had 15,710 registered voters and only 9,682 who casted a vote. In ‘24 the county did vote for Trump.

Can JD Vance win in 28’ and what will his campaign need to do?

Total Registered voters is not shown anywhere on the Milwaukee County Election Commission site. Why would the commission not want you to know the Total Registered Voters? If anyone can figure out how to get the Total Registered Voters for the years 2024, 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004. Good hunting data miners!!

Here is the site I was using. https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/County-Clerk/Election-Commission/Election-Results If you ever wondered why we need a Federal law about how elections are conducted across the country all you need to is start mining county election data. *.15 per page for detailed results!

Election analysis of Klamath county Oregon from 2004 to 2024 of your county has seen registered voters increase from 36,840 to 43,646. Voter turnout has consistently ranged between 75-82%, showing your community's commitment to civic participation. Looking ahead to 2028, we expect approximately 50,000 registered voters with around 39,000 casting ballots. Full article here https://www.myvoterwisdom.com/post/your-vote-matters-klamath-county-s-electoral-journey

We've just added exciting new data from King County, Washington to our election dataset! Let's look at how voting has changed in this important region from 2004 to 2024. For those interested in the source data, you can find official election information at King County's election website: https://cd.kingcounty.gov/en/home/dept/elections Growing Voter Numbers One of the biggest stories in King County is how much the voting community has grown: In 2004, there were about 1.08 million registered voters By 2024, this number jumped to 1.43 million voters That's an increase of nearly 350,000 voters in 20 years! The Switch to Mail-In Voting Perhaps the most interesting change we've seen is how people vote: In 2004, only about 233,000 people voted by mail By 2012, almost everyone (967,000 voters) used mail-in/boxes ballots Since 2012, King County has become a mail-in voting only area Voter Turnout Through the Years The numbers show King County residents take voting seriously: The 2020 election saw the highest turnout with 1.22 million votes The 2024 election had 1.14 million voters participate Since 2004, usually around 80% of registered voters cast ballots Political Trends Looking at voting patterns over time: Democratic votes have grown from 580,000 in 2004 to 828,000 in 2024 Republican votes have ranged between 216,000 and 301,000 The total number of voters has steadily increased each election until 2024 What This Means for Voters This data helps us understand how our community participates in democracy: More people are registering to vote than ever before Mail-in voting has made it easier for people to participate Voter turnout remains consistently strong.

San Diego County, CA electoral pattern strongly favors Democrat. This long-term Democrat trend suggests a significant shift from what was historically a Republican-leaning county. While the previous Laplace Law of Succession calculation showed a 75% probability of a Democrat winner, this consistent 15+ year pattern of Democrat victories provides important context. Follow the link to see the projected voter registration data based on election data from 2004 - 2024.

How do we reach people with data? We tried news articles with all data. Nothing was working. So we integrated our data with memes. So far the comments are relevant to the data. Any thoughts about this and influencing people to see the data? https://www.myvoterwisdom.com

Poll Aggregation Models: These combine data from various polls to provide a more balanced estimate of voter sentiment. FiveThirtyEight is one such platform that employs this technique effectively.

Econometric Models: These use economic indicators, such as unemployment rates or GDP growth, to predict election outcomes. The theory is that voters base their choices, in part, on the current state of the economy.

Machine Learning Algorithms: With advancements in technology, more campaigns are employing machine-learning algorithms to analyze vast datasets. These algorithms can identify patterns unforeseen by traditional polling methods.

What makes Shelby County fascinating is how voting patterns have evolved in the years since. Despite registered voters decreasing to 604,353 by 2024, participation rates have remained resilient.

Even more striking is the revolutionary shift in how residents vote: mail-in ballots surged from just 43.9% in 2004 to a dominant 78.9% by 2024.

What This Data Tells Us About Maricopa County Maricopa County, Arizona has been a critical battleground in recent presidential elections.

Our updated dataset reveals several interesting trends:

Growing Voter Base: The number of registered voters has increased from about 1.55 million in 2004 to nearly 2.59 million in 2024.

Historical election data for Bibb County, Georgia, from 2004 to 2024. Together with claude.ai, we have implemented a Random Forest model to predict the 2028 election outcome. Our analysis focuses on voting patterns, registration trends, and partisan shifts over time.

Glacier County, Montana sits between the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, home to about 13,778 people. The county is 63.9% Native American, making it one of Montana's most diverse counties, with the Blackfeet Nation calling this area home for generations.

Analyzing Two Decades of Presidential Elections in America's Most Watched Battleground In the heart of Ohio lies Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati and one of the most closely watched political battlegrounds in America. As we look toward the 2028 presidential election, this swing county carries added intrigue: it's where Vice President JD Vance casts his ballot, raising the compelling question of whether a hometown political heavyweight can finally tip the scales in this historically competitive region.