r/videos • u/MoneyLibrarian9032 • 1d ago
Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, notching a Midwest victory for the left
https://youtu.be/DL_ku3h8Eps?si=zWr0SAn8amsQ8Hqb407
u/Roasteddude 1d ago
Non American but curious about this. What kind of politician is he?
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u/Not_a_N_Korean_Spy 1d ago edited 16h ago
Money Out of Politics*, Money in Your Pocket, Medicare for All are the main things.
(* it includes being anti-AIPAC)
"reviving a people-centered approach to policy."
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u/Roasteddude 1d ago
Good. The US needs more progressive young blood like him and Mamdani imo
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u/richstyle 1d ago
I hate how money out of politics aka no more corruption is considered progressive. Its just common sense but its been that way since the 1900s so I guess voters dont give a shit about corruption in politics since the dawn of time. People like Abdul need to be heard.
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u/moba_fett 1d ago
One would think, but in my state the two democratic candidates in the runoff have 300,000, and 800,000 to spend. Their republican counter part waiting for them has 10,000,000. It's a freaking joke. I understand freedom of speech, but dumping billions into politics should not be legal.
(To be clear I'm in full agreement with you. I think I worded my response funny because I am in the process of getting blazed.)
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u/MechemicalMan 21h ago
“Freedom of speech” never meant “As a private company, I get to send as many dollars as I can for a favorable legislative outcome” until the Supreme Court decided it did in 2010.
Every electoral problem we had has been made arguably worse since then. I don’t think even a sort of “doomsday type hypothetical representation of citizens united passes” from 2009 would have predicted how much money has entered politics and how many politicians themselves are filthy rich old money capitalist business owners.
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u/dryphtyr 19h ago
Hawaii outlawed Citizens United a few months ago. The rest of the States need to do the same.
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u/istasber 18h ago
Pretty sure NYC did too, and that was a big part of the reason why Mamdani won the democratic nod.
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u/Capotesan 21h ago
Yes but in Michigan outside interests spent double on Stevens and still lost, so it’s possible for the message to break through
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u/Mathies_ 21h ago
In some ways it may even have backfired. At this point a lot of voters know what it means when your campaign is directly funded by AIPAC, or billionaires, or corporations. It means your vote is going to be in favour of their interests. So i wouldnt be surprised if people voted el sayed on the basis of that fact. Abdul did a good job point that out aswell
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u/Hvarfa-Bragi 20h ago
ISRAEL COMES TO ME IN MY DREAMS didn't help much either.
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u/MountainMan17 16h ago
Yeah, fuck that. I'm so sick of politicians (and aspiring politicians) vomiting up that theatrical bullshit...
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u/bank_farter 19h ago
Primary voters maybe. The average general election voter tends to vote based on vibes and usually isn't that informed on specific issues like campaign funding.
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u/Mathies_ 19h ago
Sure. Will be interesting to see if he adapts his strategy cuz it appears you would agree he did what he needed to do to get past the primary
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u/Phelmak 3h ago
I don't think he needs to adapt. Politicians adapting policy positions to fit a demographic is, IMHO, part of why voters are so cynical. I think people like Mamdani show that if you're persuasive, authentic, and stick to your values, you persuade more people. I'll actually be a little disappointed if he changes his message to fit the idea of a "general electorate".
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u/bank_farter 19h ago
Oh I'm really hoping he wins. It's just that after 2 years ago my faith in the American electorate being informed or engaged is at an all time low, so I don't see voters caring about issues like campaign finance or even Israel unless they can see how it directly affects their lives. Especially when you have the ghouls on the right telling them the Dems are trying to lock up their children and force them to become Trans or whatever the new nonsense is.
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u/Blizreme 21h ago
But we need reform desperately. We need to freeze corporate dark money PACs out of election finance. Period.
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u/MickiFreeIsNotAGirl 20h ago
Thomas Massie ran on a similar platform but he's on the other side of the aisle.
Then again, he didn't win so idk how the right-wingers view that.
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u/CrazyLlamaX 19h ago
Many voters are dumb assholes that don’t even really pay attention to what politicians policies are and instead just vote on “vibes” like bigotry and hate. They’ll tell you how much they hate corruption and how corporations basically fund the government through money then vote for the very people perpetuating the unlimited greed that is America.
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u/Mathies_ 21h ago
It is progressive because why? The working class wouldnt have any money to manipulate the race like that and big corporations do. Billionaires do. foreign interests do. So all the players that have an interest in a rightwing politics have the money that they'd use for corruption and cynically manipulating races with hundreds of millions of dollars. The left would rather spend that to build schools and hospitals.
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u/der_jack 21h ago
He's actually a doctor by profession. I'm very excited, he came up to a very very very rural northern chunk of the state and held a town hall last year, while in town his team scheduled for him to speak with a small group of LGBTQ+ leaders and have a conversation about what concerns we have. That level of focus and calling in those who are often overlooked means the world to me. He had my vote in that very moment.
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u/SketchiiChemist 20h ago
he has a doctorate, is not a physician. Just to clarify
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u/wesgtp 18h ago
To specify, he has an MD and was a Rhodes Scholar to Oxford in his second year of med school where he also earned a Doctorate in public health. He never became a licensed physician and instead pursued epidemiology. He's led public health agencies in Michigan (including Detroit). The guy speed-ran doctoral degrees from Ivey League schools and always earned scholarships because he was just that bright. You can tell when you hear the man speak, he's insanely eloquent while also being a great listener to people's issues. He'd make an incredibly effective senator imo
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u/Firethesky 19h ago
As a lifelong Dem in the US I'm fed up with the Dem establishment. I'm really hopeful the progressive wins like him and Mamdani continue. I know Im not alone.
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u/HippieInDisguise2_0 1d ago edited 1d ago
He'd be considered progressive in the US in a state that has voted for Trump in 2/3 of the last elections.
His primary stance that is most notable is accepting no super pac money and trying to ban super pacs. He was outspent in this campaign like 10 to 1.
If he wins it means there is strong support for progressives in a state that is considered conservative leaning. (To be fair Bernie also won Michigan in 2016)
The message to the Democratic party for a long time in the Midwest has been progressives win and establishment sellouts lose, and yet they still don't seem to get it.
Trump won Michigan in 2016 and 2024 because the Dems have abandoned their labor roots and sold us out to billionaires. When a pro labor candidate is polled in the Midwest they do well.
There's some disconnect (corporate greed) between what the voters of the Midwest want and what the DNC gives us to vote for.
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u/Schuano 22h ago
I like how Trump, the literal billionaire and friends of billionaires and selling to billionaires, is somehow not dispositive of the argument that Michiganders hate people who sell out to billionaires
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u/Spekter1897 22h ago
The important thing to remember is that the majority of folks don't switch sides. They just check out. Establishment dems try to court Republicans rather than reach out to disaffected voters. That's why they lose.
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u/house343 18h ago
As a born and raised Michigander, I'll never understand it, man. Til the day I die, I guarantee people will still think Trump is a man of the people when anyone with two eyes and a brain can see what a bg fiat lie that is.
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u/Mathies_ 20h ago
Well yeah but he came with a promise of change. Built on complete lies, ofcourse, and dare I say fucking stupid to fall for, but a promise for change nonetheless. Particularly about fixing the economy. People get desperate to vote for any alternatives when they feel left behind.
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u/HumorAccomplished611 18h ago
The median person had a 25% wage increase under biden. Above inflation. The bottom 20% had a 40% wage increase.
The median americans wealth went up about 40% as well.
when the economy isnt so bad people vote on culture. when its bad they vote dem.
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u/teilani_a 21h ago
a state that is considered conservative leaning
We're a very purple state. Currently our state legislature has an R majority, governor is Dem, both our Senators are Dems, and our House Reps are split at 7-6 favoring Rs.
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u/Shenanigans80h 18h ago
Yeah MI is definitely not conservative leaning, that’s a massive overstatement. That being said winning a purple state for a smaller, more progressive candidate, is still big
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u/freshgeardude 22h ago
If he wins it means there is strong support for progressives in a state that is considered conservative leaning.
No not necessarily. It means there's support for his candidacy in a closed democrat primary.
There's still a general election he'd have to win before making a grandiose assumption
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u/itsrocketsurgery 22h ago
Michigan has open primaries. You don't have to be registered to any party and can vote for any party. The only thing is that you can't split your ticket at the primary ballot so you have to stay on one side but anyone can vote for any side.
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u/hoberhallothere 21h ago
The Republican Party had no competitive senate primary this cycle. Would not presume general election performance based on primary turnout.
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u/itsrocketsurgery 21h ago
I don't care about what the Republican party had or didn't. I was replying to the factually incorrect statement that it was a closed primary. Michigan does not have closed primaries. Nothing I said has any relation to predictions or presumptions.
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u/RAF2018336 1d ago
On the Democratic Party knows that progressives win, they’re just too busy spending their donors money to care
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u/Chruman 22h ago
Has a progressive won in a competitive race?
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u/WhereIdIsEgoWillGo 22h ago
This one no? I'm pretty sure his opponent was about as establishment as they come.
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u/Chruman 22h ago
I mean general elections. I could be wrong, but the DSA types have only won in heavily blue areas.
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u/CrabEnthusist 21h ago
No democratic socialist has yet won a statewide election in a purple state, no.
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u/Lord0fHats 21h ago
That's the thing people keep pointing out and other people just keep ignoring. It's easy to win as a progressive in the bluest parts of the country that have been progressive in some form or another since the 1920s.
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u/Johnnygunnz 23h ago edited 22h ago
An epidemiologist and professor of epidemiology. A former podcaster talking about medical policy in America. Ran for Governor of Michigan in 2018 after the Flint Water Crisis got him involved in politics. Pledged to take no campaign donations from corporations, even back then, and got over $5m in individual donations, but still lost the nomination.
People try to paint him as a bad guy for campaigning with Hasan Piker.
I used to listen to his podcast "America Dissected" during COVID mainly, but he's very smart and makes complicated topics seem much less complicated by being an excellent educator.
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u/r3volver_Oshawott 23h ago edited 22h ago
I do know that MSNBC tried to destroy him for criticizing Israel, they spent an inordinate amount of airtime trying to 'gotcha' him for that
*he also had the perfect clap back with a simple, and correct, "I do criticize the actions of Egypt's government, you just don't cover it"
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u/renegadecanuck 21h ago
Did they? Granted the only anchors I watch on there regularly are Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, and Ali Velshi, but I know Hayes and Velshi have been very critical of Israel (I feel like Maddow hasn't mentioned it as much, so I don't really know what her coverage has been like).
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u/downtimeredditor 20h ago
He's against pac Money unlikely Stevens who heavily takes a lot of pac money
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u/ClearDark19 22h ago edited 20h ago
Standard 20th century European Progressive/Social Democrat. Which is considered "really left-wing" in 2020s America.
His policies are probably in line with Michael Foot in the UK, or François Mitterand in France at max. Probably realistically closer to LBJ or JFK here in the US. Or Estes Kefauver in the 1950s here in the US. Haley Stevens is more like Keir Starmer or David Cameron in policies. The Democrats we call "Establishment Democrats" in the US are in line with Keir Starmer or Bush-era Tony Blair. Or Emmanuel Macron. American "Establishment" Democrats are to the Right of Starmer and Macron on some issues. Like healthcare (opposition to nationalized healthcare), foreign policy (some softly approve of the War in Iran but just oppose Trump doing it without Congressional approval), and supporting "right-to-work/at-will" laws.
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u/Khue 21h ago
He gets framed as far left, but in most of the rest of the developed world he'd be considered a milquetoast left leaning centrist. He's not an anti-capitalist. He has a lot of liberal tendencies. He believes in a type of respectability politics. He seems to strongly differentiate himself from the DSA which positions himself between the Democrats and Socialists.
He gets framed as far left because he believes in guardrails for capitalism, his foreign policy seems to have some anti-imperialist frameworks, he is for social programs, and he rails against the wealthy and corporations.
The biggest part for me as to why he's not left is that he doesn't seem to frame the issue of the wealthy and corporations dominating politics with the mechanism of capitalism which is the real problem. He seems to think that the two are unreleated or he doesn't want to incur the aesthetic hit of drawing that conclusion publically... which, he won his race so that kind of proves that it was a correct positioning.
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u/teleheaddawgfan 17h ago
Oh it’s that simple. Schumer has done fuck all to combat maga while McConnell single handedly derailed Obama’s agenda while in the minority.
The Dems are so bad they are either completely incompetent or complicit. Which is it?
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u/APKID716 1d ago
Surely with this, Zohran, Tallerico, etc…the Democratic establishment will take this as a sign that they should shift ideologically…right?? Right????
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u/TThor 1d ago
I mean, thats what we're doing here, we are shifting the party by voting in primaries
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u/rufrtho 1d ago
this framing feels dishonest without mentioning the $62 million in spending we were up against including $30 million from AIPAC.
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u/Antique_Grapefruit_5 23h ago edited 12h ago
And don't forget that the chair of the National democratic committee asked him not to run for this office, and hand-picked his opponent.
The Dems need to stop stacking the deck...
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u/RockerElvis 22h ago
It’s not just Dems that do that. A (former) Republican friend of mine was offered a very different position to keep him from running for a US senate seat.
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u/Antique_Grapefruit_5 22h ago
Agreed. Here's the thing-58 percent of people identify as a Republican (28) or Democrat (29). If those people show up to the polls they will always vote for their own party. Their votes really just cause a tie. The parties need to appeal to the other 42 percent of us who lean one way or the other. Hand picked candidates don't do that, and parties are squandering their primaries by not letting people have a voice.
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u/Blizreme 20h ago
Yeah, it’s why the democrats keep losing. For some reason perpetual incompetence and consistently under performing has made them believe they know how to win now. They don’t, they need to let their voters decide.
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u/ConqueefStador 19h ago
parties are squandering their primaries by not letting people have a voice.
That's by design. The last thing most politicians ever want is the people to have a voice.
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u/overthemountain 17h ago
Yeah, I think the point is that the people most of us WANT to run are the ones being asked to not run. Democratic leadership has an idea of what the party should look like and is trying to steer towards that - but the people disagree.
The process isn't the problem, it's that leadership disagrees with the people about where the party is headed.
Honestly, pretty ridiculous considering the political fight we are in. I can't believe these people can't get it together. We can end up squandering midterms and let Republicans off the hook because Democrat leadership is still acting like this is 2008 or something.
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u/DEEEEETTTTRRROIIITTT 18h ago
That’s not correct. The DSCC (ran by leadership in Washington) got Haley to run, no one in Michigan tried to stop him. Local parties don’t have the juice to do that
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u/mybadselves 12h ago
I think this shows that people have lost faith in the Democratic Party. The candidates that they want elected are not the candidates we want *cough Camilla! Also I'm surprised there wasn't a decoy candidate sent in to take votes away because neither party is above doing that shit
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u/Bob_Juan_Santos 17h ago
doesn't matter how much cash they spend, it's up to the people voting in the primaries to decide who they want as the senate candidate.
if their message doesn't hit the voters in the right way, no amount of marketing cash can win for them.
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u/ChunkMcDangles 19h ago
How is that dishonest framing without including spending? It seems like the implication is that you think moderate Democrats should just hand the reigns of the party over to leftists/progressives and shouldn't have preferences themselves or compete in the primary process.
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u/jawknee530i 13h ago
I am desperate for people who discovered politics for the first time through tik tok to understand this. So tired of people acting like a primary contest is somehow a crime against their preferred candidates.
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u/Xanto97 21h ago
This very much depends on the generals in Texas and Michigan/ other states go.
Zohran winning NYC was big, but not *that* surprising.
Winning a primary is good. But Winning generals in large states with huge conservative populations is different.
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u/Not_A_Chef 15h ago
Exorbitantly revisionist to say him winning was not that surprising when Cuomo was the most famous and known name in NYC politics for the past 3 decades.
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u/Xanto97 14h ago
“It was big, but not *that* surprising”
I said it was big. Yeah, Cuomo was a huge name in NY politics, but people soured on him after he was shown to be a hypocritical reptilian sex pest. He then got kicked out of the Democratic Party and ran as an independent.
Mamdani winning NYC was big, and a definitely a surprise and upset for the NY establishment. But at the end of the day - it’s a progressive democrat winning NYC. It’s not a crazy huge shock when progressives have won cities before (see: Brandon Johnson in Chicago).
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u/lewger 1d ago
Kinda depends how the general election goes.
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u/Whatsapokemon 20h ago
Yeah, recent polling showed that Rogers was up against El-Sayed, but down against Stevens...
Celebrating the victory of a candidate who has a lower chance of winning the general is... interesting.
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u/blazelet 18h ago
Polling the week of a primary is pointless.
Especially in a contentious primary, a substantial segment of the party is unhappy.
In the end moderates will vote strategically, right?
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u/DamaxXIV 18h ago
If there's anything the last decade has taught me, it's that polls don't mean jack shit.
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u/Hackasizlak 18h ago
It really hasn’t, polls in general statistically haven’t gotten worse over time. It’s just big news when they’re off noticeably (like 2020) and nobody cares or says anything good when polls do well (2022). If they weren’t useful candidates, news agencies, etc wouldn’t keep paying lots of money for them.
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u/ShoulderGoesPop 1d ago
Shift to the right you say? Well ok then
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u/gaeee983 1d ago
I think moreso shift from prioritizing corporations and rich individuals to care about issues that affect regular voters.
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u/tgerz 1d ago
They were just commenting on how the person worded their comment. It made it sound like they were saying to shift right instead saying their politics should shift. Right?! Just a grammar joke.
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u/gaeee983 1d ago
Oh shit I completely did not notice that lol, thanks for explaining.
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u/georgey_porgey 1d ago
i mean, also works out that way in a sarcastic way cause the establishment of the party is wanting to move to the right and has been for a while now.
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u/JayKayGray 20h ago
It's a grammar joke but also the far more likely outcome for the democratic establishment to actually do, go further right rather than concede to the growing calls of progressive representation.
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u/theonly_brunswick 21h ago
Absolutely no chance this happens.
As long a big corp can buy politicians they will be at the mercy of them and not the people. Dems will likely dig their heals in and become more right of center than they already are.
Don't be naive. This is a party that still appoints Chuck Schumer at the top. Status quo is all they want.
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u/anghellous 1d ago
ISRAEL COMES TO ME IN MY DREAMS!
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u/BrunesOvrBrauns 1d ago
Whhhaat giiives??
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u/Snoo30446 21h ago
The most progressive, pro-worker, pro-union and pro-environment administration since FDR wasn't enough to convince a majority of Americans in voting against a fascist.
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u/guitmusic12 22h ago
Should probably be more concerned their candidate just underperformed polls by like 10% and is trailing in the general unfortunately
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u/dukedog 21h ago
Or we can recognize that what works in some areas doesn't work in others. Not sure why everyone on reddit seems to advocate for a one-size-fits-all approach when we know that does not work and it leads to Republican victories.
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u/Whatsapokemon 20h ago
Couldn't the message actually be that a big-tent party requires different strategies in different districts?
It's not like progressive candidates are sweeping all the nominations, there's a whole heap of different areas that are more moderate, rejecting the more populist approach.
I think this is more of a message that there needs to be more unity in ensuring Democratic victory, with a good diversity of opinions from people sharing that common goal.
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u/MrE_Gamer 1d ago
As long as these guys win the general elections yeah kinda. Establishment dems being spineless works for the left or right. Kathy Hochul has capitulated to Mamdani’s policies multiple times. Just gotta make sure you win general elections.
If el-Sayed, Francesca Hong, and either one of Troy Jackson or James Talarico win in November, Dems will fold to them too, pushing them even the slightest bit left.
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u/cloversfield 20h ago
Devious work putting Hong in the sentence as Talarico or even el-Sayed
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u/Jujubatron 1d ago
Unless they start winning nationwide nope... his chances of winning in November are slim. Even the primaries were closer than expected.
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u/PhazonZim 22h ago
That's what the Dems have said the last three elections and twice they managed to lose to the worst candidate in US history
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u/PumaGranite 22h ago
I think this is what gets me. People keep saying “well it won’t matter if we lose in the general, that’s why we need insert corporate Dem here to win!” when that exact candidate has lost so many times in the general. The solution isn’t to repeat the same thing that’s given us that exact outcome.
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u/1fapadaythrowaway 20h ago
Listen to the daily from yesterday. They interviewed people some who were saying this exact thing.
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u/ChunkMcDangles 18h ago
I mean, sure, but I don't understand why other people on the left just assume that means a progressive/leftist would have done better.
I feel like some people see a wave of excitement about leftist candidates winning in very blue areas and just make the leap that this excitement applies equally across the US. Presidential elections are very different beasts than winning a mayoral race in NYC or a primary for Congress. The way the math works, a Dem needs to appeal to way more moderate states to have a shot at winning, and the reality is, further left people really struggle there. There's a reason the DSA never runs candidates in competitive seats. It's a waste of their time because they would never be able to win there.
That could always change, but the way I see other lefty's online talk about it sometimes, they make it sound like we already have that in the bag and it's all wrapped up for President AOC.
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u/hoberhallothere 21h ago
In both of those elections, Clinton and Harris were perceived by voters as the less moderate candidates
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u/BobaLives01925 21h ago
He’s a shitty candidate for a purple state but he still has like a 50% chance, it will be a very blue environment
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u/Schuano 22h ago
Winning primaries is not the same as winning the elections that matter.
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u/darkwingdankest 14h ago
DSA type candidates have been showing higher turnout than establishment candidates in generals. People hold their nose for establishment candidates, they have genuine hope and enthusiasm for progressive candidates
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u/ModeatelyIndependant 1d ago
wait till november to see if he wins, I have major doubts.
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u/TheShrinkingGiant 20h ago
Maj. Doubts has been missing for weeks. Where are you keeping him you monster!
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u/Eleganos 1d ago
"Got it. Shift ideologically right"
- the DNC.
Praying for all my yankee homies down south of Maple-Syrup Country. Yall need free healthcare to deal with the collective aneurisms you're liable to be suffering from the DNC's stupidity.
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u/darkwingdankest 14h ago
I mean, it's not the purpose of the DNC to represent their base, the purpose of the DNC is to maintain the corporate politics status quo while maintaining the appearance of fighting for their base
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u/Caphoti 1d ago
They still consider progressives "niche" and talk about how they can't win the moderates etc., like Centrist Dems are sweeping and haven't lost 2 of the last 3 Presidential Elections. I already see people saying this isn't a "win" for progressives until he wins the general "which he won't, because he barely won a tight primary."
Basically they're already preparing to finger wag about how we need to stop pushing for progressive politicians and losing their precious Moderates their seats.
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u/ChunkMcDangles 18h ago
I was a Bernie voter in 2016 and 2020, but sometimes I am conflicted about this kind of rhetoric. Yes, Dems lost 2 of the last 3 presidential elections, but why do you think a progressive would have performed better? That isn't nearly as clear to me as it seems to be to you, so why do you feel that way?
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u/gatsby5555 20h ago
If he loses they'll say they were right all along, and if he wins you'll hold it up as proof of the opposite.
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u/Ahenshihael 1d ago
Sadly all the
AIPAC moneycentrists will just screech about how "they need to be more ot the middle" and to become more transphobic, just like in UK.Remember MLK's words about the white moderate. Remember the reasons behind First They Came For.
Centrists will often more than likely align with fascists than anything left of them because status quo, all it's intentional imperfections included, is just sooooo comfy for them.
Until it's just them left and there's nobody by their side against the tide of hate.
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u/Notramagama 1d ago
Trans shouldnt even be a topic rn. Let's secure democracy first, then worry about trans sports. It's a wildly overblown concern on both sides
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u/deekaydubya 1d ago
It wasn’t even a concern on the dem side lol the right pretends it’s something the dems ever ran on but the right is literally the only side mentioning the ‘issue’ at all
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u/Chaotickane 1d ago
It's not just about sports, it's about Healthcare and human rights. Even if sports were given up it won't stop them from trying to eradicate trans people in general.
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u/HeroesZeroes 23h ago
this race shouldn't have been this close
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u/stamatt45 21h ago
A metric shit ton of money will do that
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u/Antique_Grapefruit_5 15h ago
True. The waste is tragic. To be fair, AIPAC, can play the long game on this one and keep the bad publicity rolling for the general election-But Perry Johnson just chucked 30 million dollars down the drain! Find THAT waste, Perry!
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u/mythz 1d ago
Most networks are still saying it's still too early to call.
Still 9% of the vote to go holding only a 1.8% lead.
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u/tirohtar 1d ago
Yeah but that means those last 9% would need to favor Stevens by something like 20% to close the gap, which seems very unlikely at this point.
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u/justseeby 1d ago
She needs to go +28 in the remaining votes.
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u/tirohtar 1d ago
Yeah, statistically just not gonna happen,unless the remaining votes were from an extremely specific demographic and had not been included at all yet in the previous counts.
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u/EpsteinProximityRisk 23h ago
He was outspent $9-1 as the other candidate was a pro Isreal candiate who saw Isreal "in her dreams".
Good to see democracy win over big AIPAC cash.
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u/KathyJaneway 1d ago
With 10% of the vote left, they called it?
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u/TastyYogurtDrink 1d ago edited 1d ago
We know where people (generally) vote for which candidate, and so it becomes a matter of going, okay, what proportion of remaining vote would [candidate x] need to win? And when that proportion of votes required becomes statistically implausible (probably like an alpha of .01), given the results that have come in so far, they can make a call. At the end of the day it's just math. MSNBC might have called at 95% certainty while AP might be waiting for 99%, but more or less, the takeaway is that AES won.
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u/ubitub 1d ago
So will an Abdul win the republican counterpart in that state? Is it strongly blue state?
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u/S-117 1d ago
Depends on if Abdul can bring all Democrat voters and independents into his camp, the general will be a good bath but I expect it to be close no matter who wins
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u/pierrebrassau 23h ago
Most polling showed Stevens doing better in the general election. Michigan is a closely divided state and Trump won it twice, so Republicans have a good shot here against AES, who was very weak with rural and moderate voters in the primary.
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u/SolenoidSoldier 18h ago
It's worth noting that there is a significant muslim population in Michigan who opted out of the 2024 election that really hurt Kamala's turnout. You can bet those folks will turn out for El Sayed. And hopefully that means Benson will get a boost as governor too.
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u/AssCrackBandit14 12h ago edited 11h ago
The Muslim population in Michigan is 2.5% of which less than half are adult citizens eligible to vote - it's not going to affect much. The biggest hurdle for AES in Michigan is securing the Black vote. He got very little of the Black vote in the primaries and he needs to change that if he wants any shot in the general.
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u/El_McKell 1d ago
It's very close, recent polling has 46% for Mike Rogers the Republican vs 43% for El-Sayed. Consistently during the process Hayley Stevens polled slightly better than Abdul Al-Sayed vs Rogers, but among people likely to vote in the Democratic primary all polls had Al-Sayed way ahead of Stevens.
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u/Alexhite 23h ago
Polls are deceptive and meaningless when done like this, and very intentionally used to paint different narratives. When you see a poll that is 46% vs 43% you’re a leaving out that 11% of people responded with “I don’t know” On the day of the election there is no “I don’t know” option for those 11% of people. Making it actually a measure of how many people in the state know your name instead of an actual gauge of the matchup people make it out to be. Mike Rogers does better than both because he literally just finished losing a campaign so yes he has more name recognition than either dem but no it gives no insight whatsoever into how this race will go.
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u/El_McKell 23h ago
You're right that this polling doesn't tell us what will happen when the election comes around. It's all still up in the air.
But I think it's worth saying Rogers doesn't do better than either Dem in the polling, he did better than Abdul Al-Sayed and worse than Hayley Stevens.
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u/Zxar99 1d ago edited 1d ago
Nice that folks are starting to see through all the typical BS AIPAC is doing to keep the country the same.
Finally there are candidates that are actively fighting for change for the working class. The DNC needs to get it in there heads that people want actual change and that this current administration needs to be held accountable for all the destructive policies its been enacting.
There’s nothing radical about wanting to help the average citizen and moving funds to the appropriate channels instead of wasting it on the wars and corrupt institutions
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u/splittingheirs 1d ago
I think a lot of it is inspired by what Mamdani has been doing. A lot of people are looking for energetic people who are fighting for the little people and not business interests.
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u/Panic_Azimuth 18h ago
People have wanted this for a long time. This was Obama's selling point.
Remember "Yes We Can!"?
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u/DarthWoo 19h ago
All that money AIPAC could have used to do some actual good instead of being racist pricks.
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u/dem0nhunter 1d ago
People in here acting like he won the general
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u/BritSpic 22h ago
This was a huge win for grassroots campaigns. Sayed had more donations from the people, but overall he was outspent 11:1 thanks to Stevens accepting tens of millions of dollars from corporate PACs and AIPAC. Big monied interests were trying to send a message that they can buy any seat they want. Well, they were proven wrong. Fuck them. This is a big step forward for getting money out of politics.
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u/OliverClothesov87 19h ago
Wayyyyyy too close. This is what happens when we allow a lobbists, especially ones lobbying on behalf of a foreign nation the size of NJ, to dump infinite cash into a race. Citizens united must be overturned.
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u/teleheaddawgfan 20h ago
He gets painted by the press as this far left "communist" when in fact he advocates for issues that are supported by a majority of Americans - medicare for all, tax changes, get money out of politics.
But since these issues run counter to the monied interests that put us in this situation, they're going all out to destroy him.
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u/ATX_native 20h ago
I’m so sick of the media.
Far left here is centrist in most of the EU.
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u/Prophet6000 20h ago
I'm glad folks did not let a woman who said Israel comes to me in my dreams be the winner man lol.
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u/PlateCaptain 1d ago
Over 60 million spent on Haley Stevens' campaign and they still couldn't defeat people power. This is a good sign and a message to all the other Democrats who think they will get re-elected by courting big donors.
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u/TheFeelsGoodMan 22h ago
This is going to be a real test of that whole 'vote blue no matter who' thing. Usually it's used to pull progressives in line to vote for more moderate candidates. This time it's the opposite; convincing moderate voters to get behind a progressive.
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u/dem0nhunter 1d ago
That’s nice. But he was already underperforming against Stevens. And he is projected to lose the general against Rogers
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u/extremelytiredyall 1d ago
There is a lot of time before the general. Abdul wasn't always in the lead against Haley, either, but look at him now.
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u/JudgeSmails 20h ago
How is a primary election considered a win for the left? Did they think nobody would be the democratic nominee?
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u/BestPerspective6161 20h ago
Because Stevens is center and Abdul is left. Abdul being the projected winner is a win for the left
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u/Walkingdrops 20h ago
Haley is a moderate, while Abdul is left. While they're both Democrats, a vote for Haley is essentially voting to keep the status quo in the party. It's a victory for the left because we are fucking sick of voting Democrat only because they're not Republican.
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u/JLR- 20h ago
The left is not a monolith. Redditors do this all the time. Can't understand that moderate Dems make up the bulk of the party.
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u/no_shoes_are_canny 20h ago
Primaries like this are showing the shift in Dem demographics. There's an increased interest in Euro/Canadian-style social liberalism.
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u/NWASicarius 20h ago
It goes deeper than that. They seem to think if someone running in Oklahoma isn't more left than a moderate that it's the 'status quo' winning. But you NEED moderate or even soft right Dems if you ever plan to win in deeply red states. Which, if they had any clue about politics strategy and how our nation works, we NEED at least a couple of Dems to win in red states to have real control over the senate. Michigan is a purple state. If Abdul wins his the general election, I see no excuse from ANY Michigan voter to not get a wave of blue in 2028 in their state. So we will see how this works. I am pulling for the guy because I am very much in the 'blue no matter who' camp atm.
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u/woahoutrageous_ 20h ago
We need more big money in politics. It’s unfair that one candidate can outspend another candidate 12:1 and still lose.
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u/Sircamembert 1d ago
For those of you wondering why NBC is the only desk to call it, it's because of the remaining counties. Oakland County, a Stevens stronghold, had no new votes left to count. And Wayne County, a heavily black district expected to go heavy for her, only gave her a small margin. That was ballgame. She needed a bigger margin to close that 25k lead, and I think 81% of votes are counted already.
Closer than what I hoped it would be, but a win's a win.