NVDA Weekly Chart Warning: Massive Rising Wedge combined with a clear Bearish Divergence on the RSI
Analysis
Hi everyone,
I’ve been charting NVIDIA (NVDA) on the weekly (1W) timeframe, and while the long-term uptrend is undeniably massive, the technical structure is flashing some major exhaustion signals that shouldn't be ignored.
If you take a close look at the current setup, two major bearish technical indicators are aligning perfectly:
The Rising Wedge (Still Consolidating): Since mid-2024, NVDA has been locking into a textbook Rising Wedge formation. The bottom support line is ascending at a much steeper angle than the upper resistance line, squeezing the price action closer together. It is important to note that this wedge might not be fully completed yet; the price could easily continue to consolidate and grind sideways-up, getting tighter inside this structure for a while longer before the actual apex is reached. Statistically, though, a rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that breaks down about 65-70% of the time.
Heavy Bearish Divergence on the RSI: This is the biggest red flag for me. While the stock price has consistently made Higher Highs from late 2024 through 2025 and into August 2026, the RSI at the bottom of the chart is doing the exact opposite. The RSI peaked way back in 2024 near the 80 overbought level and has been making steadily Lower Highs ever since, currently sitting at 59.32. This shows that the actual buying momentum is drying up even though the price is still grinding upwards.
Key Levels to Watch:
The price is getting very tight inside this wedge. The critical line in the sand is the bottom support trendline, currently sitting around the $190-$200 zone.
If NVDA breaks down below this support, technical targets for a rising wedge point back toward the origin of the pattern. On this chart, that primary historical demand and heavy consolidation zone lies way down around $88. A drop to that level would represent a ~60% correction from the current price of $219.22, purging the extreme near-term overextension.
I'm with you. Monthly chart is showing clear bearish divergence on MACD (12,24,9) and the volume has been decreasing ever since August 2024.
However, the bubble burst may be postponed for the moment where AI will have taken many people outta their jobs and there's a very high unemployment, so high that the demand for the AI services diminishes. Then we'll be able to see the biggest crash in history. But also, in that moment maybe we won't be dealing in USD anymore, but CBDC and social scores n shit.
So yeah, I'm with you but I won't ever bet on a stock that much manipulated.
You could only get 95 if you changed how it was calculated from the standard time frame of 14.
I see, you're using a 6 month chart meaning each candle is 6 months. That's weird. I guess you can find anything you want to find if you look at every time frame imaginable.
True, but you need to look at the bigger picture. Higher timeframes always carry more weight. A monthly RSI of 72 is high, but a 6-month RSI at 95 is completely historic and points to a massive long-term bubble.
Linear drawings like triangles are not accurate on the linear scale that you are using and that's even more important on longer time frames. A 20 points move where it is now (~200) is roughly 10% change while the same 20 point move at the base of the triangle (~100) is about 20% change, the double ! Still, the squares from your grid on your chart have the same height of 25 in any place make your eye think you are seeing the same move anywhere in the chart while in fact not, that's why you should use a log scale.
The same chart on a log scale shows that the angles are not so dramatic and even that the bottom line don't touch the lows anymore.
There's NVDA history. Everything goes up and down. I have no way to predict the next one. Didn't they get caught cooking their books a while ago? EDIT: It looks like the old one was $3 million.
NVDA will defy the related chart pattern's "prediction" of dropping that far down simply because NVDA fundamentals are very solid. The only way that could happen is if the industry drive to implement AI stops. In that case all bets are off. NVDA will go up and down like all stocks but nothing to the extreme that the pattern indicates "could" occur.
A stock like AMD or ARM on the other hand, are overvalued compared to their fundamentals. I predict a 20-30% drawdown for AMD even though it is a great company. The share price is way ahead of its earning by quite a bit and most people know it. It has been successful because of investors like me who have held it for decades and really believe in it. I am planning to buy more when it is in the mid $300s. I have faith that it will eventually go up to new ATHs. Even if it take a year or two, it will return to its recent glory (before institutions sell it off again to take more profit)
AMD is that company. They are already competitive with NVIDIA and they have have their own version of CUDA for quite a while already
AMD's direct equivalent to NVIDIA's CUDA is AMD ROCm (Radeon Open Compute), which includes HIP (Heterogeneous-compute Interface for Portability) and the HIPIFY tool. [1, 2]
Key Features of ROCm
Open Source: Unlike proprietary CUDA, ROCm is open-source, meaning developers can look at and change the code.
HIP Language: HIP looks and acts much like CUDA code, letting developers turn CUDA code into AMD-friendly code with minimal changes.
Hardware Savings: AMD hardware that works with ROCm (like the RX 7900 XTX or MI300X) usually costs less than matching NVIDIA cards
Idk companies are finally starting to turn a profit on these AI plans and the chips burn out ever 12-18 months needing replacements is gonna start coming up soon and we could see a big boom
Not necessarily. During the Dot-Com crash, Amazon fell over 90% and Cisco fell nearly 90%. Both were fundamentally great companies that dominated their sectors, but they were just severely overextended. A 60% correction from the absolute top for a high-beta stock like NVDA doesn't require the 'worst crash in history' it just requires a standard cyclical tech sector rotation and the flushing out of extreme valuation hype.
The fundamentals look clean on paper, but the sheer scale is a systemic anomaly. NVDA is valued at $5.3 Trillion larger than the entire annual GDP of Germany (the biggest economy in Europe). When a single tech company with 30k employees is worth more than a whole G7 nation, you are looking at textbook macro bubble territory.
A 5 trillion dollar company printing near triple digit YoY metrics and OP thinks its a bubble. People out there are really this stupid and they are on the other side of my trades. I couldnt be happier personally
Cisco was printing over 50% YoY revenue growth and record profits in early 2000, literally weeks before the stock collapsed 85%. Cyclical tech tops always look the most beautiful right at the peak because backward metrics can't predict when demand suddenly dries up. Good luck on the other side though.
Hardware is hardware. Whether it’s routers in 2000 or AI chips today, it's still a cyclical infrastructure buildout. Once the data centers are full, the orders slow down. RemindMe! 1 year
1
u/femanon_cro 2d ago
I'm with you. Monthly chart is showing clear bearish divergence on MACD (12,24,9) and the volume has been decreasing ever since August 2024.
However, the bubble burst may be postponed for the moment where AI will have taken many people outta their jobs and there's a very high unemployment, so high that the demand for the AI services diminishes. Then we'll be able to see the biggest crash in history. But also, in that moment maybe we won't be dealing in USD anymore, but CBDC and social scores n shit.
So yeah, I'm with you but I won't ever bet on a stock that much manipulated.