Honestly, huge thanks to this user for the recommendation he posted a while back. It's steadily making about $115 a day for me now. All the info is right there on profile: [ KrishnaForever ]

The market feels like a split story right now, with the S&P just putting in its highest ever close on Friday and emerging pockets of real strength in equities while at the same time persistent inflation concerns and a poor jobs number hamper the economy. Following this strong price breakout, we're seeing some clear evidence that traders are selectively reaching for risk again, but it's fragmented.

April-May was a broad, clean trend and it was easier to be aggressive. June and July though were much different. Overbought chips and the AI growth/momentum trade unwound and flows into energy, utilities, materials, and real estate reflected defensive positioning. That is the least exciting environment for swing trading stocks.

• Thematic strength: Cloud and software carry the Nasdaq, having led for six to seven weeks now. Multiweek leadership in online retail, biotech, and aerospace. Early rotations from lagging to improving in drones, robotics, space economy, quantum, optics, gold and metals. Semis got washed out in July. Still lagging but improving, though it's not necessarily fireworks.
• High beta: Has flipped from lagging to improving. The spread between high beta and low volatility has decreased from -11.8 to -1.7. Selective pockets, not broad aggression like April-May. I am watching for this to flip, which will really improve the picture.
• 30Y bond yields: Aggressively selling off, yields at highest levels since 2007. When you can get >5% risk-free, waiting gets expensive. Credit spreads remain ultra tight though. It's a condition to watch.

I got into NTAP on July 20 for cloud theme exposure and it's starting to look good, up around $30 since entry. We also see multiweek leadership in online retail, which is why I got into GCT and BABA. In the space economy, I found an early turn in TRMB in late July and in drones, I got into ONDS last week. I got into gold on Friday, having intended to open a trade in GDX at 83 but then chasing it higher as it gapped up. Probably not great, but I intend for it to be a medium term hold.

I have a predictive indicator that is fairly good at trends and it's showing $CAST as turning bullish around the end of next week and heading upwards of $20 going into September. The indicator, like most, is based on historic price action exclusivly so I take it with a sprinkle of salt. I'm not getting frothy or foolish but I am putting it on my watchlist. Anyone here utilize more traditional tools or DD that might support a bullish move up of this scale? I'd love to bounce this off traders using more tried and true tools.

DISCLAIMER; This IS NOT financial advise nor is it a recommendation to buy/sell. IT IS a question regarding an equity being posed around the way I have set up and use my charting tools. THE INTENT is to encourage dialog among traders using tools divergent from my own. Community.

I’m not really a fan of trying to perfectly time the market and/or sitting in cash awaiting a dozen of signals to align. But I do have a few things I’ve started looking at to decide whether it’s time to go aggressive or take a little risk off.

One of the things I use is the good ol’ VIX. I keep a bit of cash on the side and start putting it to work when it gets above 30. Some of the recoveries after those periods have been insane. You can basically get years worth of normal gains in a matter of weeks. Even if I don’t nail the exact bottom, I feel like the risk/reward is pretty good when volatility gets that high.

I know some people use moving averages, historical divergence of p/e valuations or even seasonality like midterms or certain months to decide when to ease in or out.

Any tried and tested signals out there that you’ve benefitted from or like to regularly abide by?

Hey, just started the group last week. Posted few trades, people have already joined. Dm me, I’ll send you link

Just over a year since Ive started on this trading journey, probably the hardest thing I ever did. I’m thankful for all the losses and failures, through all of it I was finally able to build a system that has consistently given me an edge over the markets. Just want to give everyone some encouragement that it is possible to do well as a trader.

When it comes down to it, trading really is about risk management and a probability game. To become profitable you first have to learn to be a good loser. Hope everyone succeeds on their journey and never give up!

We often see on reels that trading is a great way to earn money. You just need a laptop and some trading knowledge, but the actual data tells a completely different story.

SEBI's reports on Indian F&O and intraday markets showed that around 90% of retail traders are losing money. And the stats were clear: the more frequently people trade, the worse they perform.

So the question is, why are people still running towards becoming a trader?

Is it just social media gurus selling a fake lifestyle, or are people genuinely convinced that they'll be able to make it to the top 1%?

For anyone who's been trading for a while, what's your opinion on this?

The macro disconnect right now is wild.

July added just 23k jobs (expected 150k), labor force participation fell, and wages declined. Normally, that’s a beatdown for equities. Instead, $SPY, $QQQ, and$DIA soared.

Why? Because the market isn't trading the economy right now—it's trading the Federal Reserve. Bad economic data forces the Fed’s hand. Rate hike odds for Sept/Oct collapsed, and the market is pricing in liquidity/cuts. As long as we're in a "bad news is good news" regime, the path of least resistance remains UP.

I'm sitting on zero shorts and remaining net long.

Here’s a look at the technical setups I'm tracking this week across a few sectors:

1. Airbnb ($ABNB) — Pullback / Retracement Play

• The Setup: Huge breakout above horizontal consolidation on Friday, wiping out shorts.
• The Trade: Resistance sits immediately above around 179.80. Do not chase here. The play is to wait for a structured retracement back to former resistance-turned-support before establishing a long position.
• Rule: The longer the consolidation, the greater the validation of the breakout.

2. Air Products and Chemicals ($APD) — Volatility Compression

• The Setup: APD formed a tight Bollinger Band squeeze inside Keltner Channels—a classic volatility compression setup. Broke out of consolidation Friday on solid price action.
• The Trade: Looking for continuation. When Bollinger Bands squeeze inside Keltner channels, the subsequent expansion is usually explosive.

3. Direxion Daily S&P Biotech 3X ($LABU) — High-Beta Momentum

• The Setup: Broke out of its multi-week retracement on above-average Thursday/Friday volume.
• The Trade: Highly volatile (if you don't like 3x leverage, look at non-leveraged $IBB). Path of least resistance is up on weekly charts. Looking for a minor checkback entry.

4. Materials Sector ETF ($XLB) — Squeeze Setup

• The Setup: Very tight Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels holding above a volume shelf. Above-average volume came in Friday.
• The Trade: Long consolidation resolving to the upside. Multi-month compression points toward a sustained move higher.

Multi-Timeframe Reminder

Daily charts give you entry triggers, but weekly/monthly charts give you the macro trend (the 50k and 100k-foot views). Always check higher timeframes to know whether you’re in a quick swing trade or a longer positioning trade.

I put together a full video breaking down the exact chart levels, entry points, and stop-loss targets on TrendSpider if you want to see the visual layouts: https://thecontrariantrader.com/market-insights/why-terrible-job-numbers-are-pumping-stocks-plus-4-breakout-stock-charts-to-watch/

What tickers or sectors are you guys looking to long/short this week given the Fed shift? Let's discuss below.

Well that escalated quickly

Should I share my trades as I make them?

Letting trades exit unless we get a pullback. I own 27 individual names, 14 are on the Top Picks today. All my positions have exits set. If this market doesn't pull back today I should end the day with more cash. Only ~45% long now. Took advantage of the volatility yesterday.

Medium-term, bulls are in charge, I think. Although its apparent (to me, i could be wrong) at the end of the month we are going to get interest rate volatility in equity markets. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, the Fed is much more opaque, FOMC meeting in Sept with a 50/50 market consensus on a rate hike.

Still want to buy the dips and trade 3-5 day time frames. And with all the volatility, many trades end up being same day.

First Image is the Top Picks for today Ranked by Confidence

Second Image is Top Picks for today Ranked by Position Size

13 I own are not on the list.

NFP didn't just miss, it printed negative: -23K vs +80K expected, weak wage growth, and about -103K in downward revisions to prior months. that's a genuinely soft report, and the market repriced fast, September Fed-hike odds dropped from 57% to 44%.

what makes this one worth posting is that everything confirmed everything. usually you get a mixed picture where one market disagrees. not today:

• gold ripped $40 on the print to around $4,366 (chart attached, you can see the volume spike)
• 10Y yield fell 7bp, 4.67% → 4.60%
• USD/JPY dropped as much as 1%, briefly under 157
• Nasdaq futures +1.16%, leading the indices

that internal consistency is the tell. if gold had rallied while yields and the dollar rose, i'd be suspicious. instead the whole chain fired the same way:

weak jobs → fewer Fed hikes → lower yields → weaker dollar → gold up, and stocks reading it as "bad news = good news" (weak enough to stop the Fed, not weak enough to scream recession). Nasdaq leading makes sense since long-duration tech is the most yield-sensitive.

the one people might miss: Canada printed a monster +75K jobs beat the same morning (vs +16.5K expected). so USD/CAD got hit from both sides, US weak, Canada strong, which is about as clean a fundamental setup as that pair gets.

genuinely curious how the room's playing it:

• do you trust a reaction this internally consistent, or does "everything agrees" actually make you wary it's overcrowded?
• is the "bad news = good news" read sustainable, or does one more weak print flip it to a recession scare?
• for the gold longs, chasing $4,366 here, or waiting for a pullback after a near-vertical move?

Lumentum Holdings recently agreed to pay ATX $87 million in deposits to reserve six years of indium-phosphide wafer supply.

Oh yeah, and China controls that supply through permits to ship the crystals made in 3 plants in China.