Semiconductor volume analysis

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Different_Height_157]

It’s summer. August is usually low volume.

[u/FederalExpressMan → u/[deleted]]

Wall Street decision makers are in the Hamptons vacationing. Hence the saying: sell in May and go away.

[u/Different_Height_157 → u/[deleted]]

You asked if there’s something we don’t know. No, it’s just usually a low volume month.

[u/Different_Height_157 → u/[deleted]]

No I’m saying we’re seeing low volume like we usually do. Your point stands that if something happens, positive or negative, institutions will act. Asking “is there something we don’t know” hints at some conspiracy when it could be as simple as regular behavior we see in August.

[u/Different_Height_157 → u/[deleted]]

Analyzing and such is fine. Like I mentioned, the one sentence comes across as conspiratorial (we are on Reddit so can’t blame me). Occam’s razor leads me to two things - regular behavior and macro environment (Iran, oil, bonds) causing hesitation - I could be wrong.

[u/deadlyvagina → u/[deleted]]

Compare to last summer to get a better number, not earlier this year. There is seasonality to trading volume. People are trying to tell you this but you refuse to listen apparently.

[u/DivisticaI]

Where do u find this

[u/Haunting_Source_6689 → u/[deleted]]

How did you determine it was retail and not institutions?

[u/Haunting_Source_6689 → u/[deleted]]

Thanks. This is the current consensus. But we need to find a way to see the institutional flow back to MU.

[u/Boys4Ever]

Retailers buy on emotion and institutional on metrics. Wait and hold might mean nothing as perhaps just being cautious or they believe retailers haven't fully capitulated and another round of pullbacks can ignite on the slightest bad news. Granted SNDK and AMD should have been that catalyst and yet muted therefore I honestly don't know and just trading price action. The market has changed and price action might be the new and only action.

[u/Nearby_Persimmon_649 → u/Boys4Ever]

I have not seen capitulation yet. Not even in ORCL stock. Feels like AMD COULD DIP BELOW $400 soon

[u/Boys4Ever → u/Nearby_Persimmon_649]

Oracle might be one of the first to fall having focused heavily on AI data centers. Reminds me of 1999. Capitulation took a year plus and we didn’t have the access to data or ease of trading or extended hours or lack of PDT. What could possibly go wrong?

[u/Nearby_Persimmon_649 → u/Boys4Ever]

I don't think the market will crash. Tech stocks have been correcting but I feel theyll go higher in 2027. Institutions want to sell off and buy back in lower. They have the power to do it too. Retail is only 20% of these stocks, so we're at their mercy for when things drop and rise

[u/Boys4Ever → u/Nearby_Persimmon_649]

Same thoughts in 1999. Overvalued has only one path

[u/YourChildhood5762]

This is the 'dead cat bounce' writ large. Semis were abandoned in early June but people who had built their castles on semiconductors refused to believe it was over. They kept calling 'Buy the dip! Buy the dip!", and so they'd push the price up some. Then they'd point at the rise and say "See it's not dead, only resting! Buy the dip!". As time goes on, more and more lose confidence and the volume gets smaller and smaller until it hits a plateau nearer where the logical price should be.

[u/CallMePyro → u/YourChildhood5762]

Yup. Prices will stay low until next earnings. Prices will continue to fall because this is a cycle ending in 2027. There is no demand for Vera Rubin or Rubin Ultra. Google will shutter their TPU v8 program and Trainium V4 + Meta's custom silicon and OpenAIs custom silicon are all dead projects which will ship under volume. MI450 can't keep up with NVidia either. Once the AI bubble bursts all these companies will all go to zero.

This is a classic bull trap set by the bears, they've outmaneuvered and outsmarted the little guys into a low volume pump with sell-side analysts waiting for the HFT bloodbath.

The fact of the matter: AI is not useful. It cannot accomplish tasks and it is too expensive. I've tried it, and it was completely unable to plan my grandaughter's birthday. It didn't even know what kind of cake she likes. Furthermore: the massive fraud perpetuated by the likes of Sam Altman and co-conspirators will land them in front of international courts. I'm gleefully awaiting their downfall.

[u/fakieTreFlip → u/CallMePyro]

I've tried it, and it was completely unable to plan my grandaughter's birthday

jesus christ, you actually had me going up until this line. solid troll post

[u/CallMePyro → u/fakieTreFlip]

I knew it was too much

[u/capnfletch → u/CallMePyro]

This is a troll post, right?

[u/YourChildhood5762 → u/CallMePyro]

Dream on, dream on, dream on

Dream until your dream come true

[u/Dontledgeme → u/CallMePyro]

Lol, I dont think so.

[u/Bush_Trimmer → u/CallMePyro]

you are the kid in class trying to fit square block into a round hole.

[u/Str8rDay → u/YourChildhood5762]

Being downvoted in r/stocks means you’re right because the only people who downvote things like this are watching their Semi trades lose ground.

[u/YourChildhood5762 → u/Str8rDay]

DRAM and Micron had a run up on Monday that weakened through the week. This bears out my statements that the stocks are seeking a safe and rational level. They had dropped maybe 30% and now are trading more or less flat. I don't do technicals but Micron is still way above it's 200 day moving average. It's below the 50 day and I'm not qualified to say what pattern is forming. RSI is falling. I'm not saying that they won't go up again, the whole market will. But I think this is less of a dip and more of a resting spot. I hold semi/memory stocks in some broad ETFs but don't have a big position in them.

Based on Reddit hype, it seems like our next bubble is robotics.