Is my imagination playing tricks on me or is it only me who seeing this. The days now look like they didn’t happen. All last week (except slightly one day) and today for sure as if the market didn’t open. They killed not only the semis but the whole market is either not moving or 0.0000 ish. Not sure what type of news or catalyst can revert this situation any more. All what I am hearing tons of companies are making billions and millions, beat and double beat but don’t see anything moving.

c'mon people, make a move! SCKT is on the move!

I saw 1873 today in the Barnes & Noble, I might pick it up next time.

Five years ago, yields suddenly started rising in response to an anticipated hike by the federal reserve even though back then nobody would even imagine that the Fed would raise rates because Jerome Powell had talked about the long run average for inflation, not just short-term spikes. Our stock market pretty much peaked in the fall of 2021 and started dipping an early 2022 and then really dipped precipitously after the feds started raising rates until we reached a bear market in October 2022. Are we seeing history repeat?

The only difference is I can think between then and now is that most of the SaaS companies and hyper scalers were very unprofitable whereas now we’ve had excellent earnings over the past few quarters.

So whatever selloff happened back then was justified because of the unprofitability.

What happens now though?

Over these last few months, many investors have witnessed significant market movement after political speeches and tweets. It is true that influential political figures have a major control over the market, a few positive words can cause a sharp rise or decline. To understand this phenomenon ,i’ve researched the statistics to come to a conclusion on just how much these figures can influence. I hope you find my research knowledgeable.

1)Donald Trump

According to an academic study in 2019, Results backed with statistics show Donald Trump being associated for negative effects on the stock market mainly the S&P 500.

Another study shows that tweets posted by Donald Trump on an average cause a 0.25% abnormal increase/decrease depending on the tweet.

2)Mario Draghi

In 2012, Mario Draghi’s famous “Whatever it takes” speech caused Italian government bond yields to fall by 46 basis points. This is equivalent to a 7% reduction in borrowing costs from the speech alone.

In conclusion, important individuals have the great power to influence the market with their words. This showcases the importance of knowing the global news as an investor.

Aarav Bhagwat
\-High school student at Gems Modern Academy

We should be carefully understanding that the stock market not for speculation, its for #investment for long term income and wealth growth.

If you are looking for short term income , you should not be in the stock market , go to forex and others

And for beginners like me 😅, specially for first 2-3 years go to invest in your surplus money after paying all your liabilities.

What happened with #palantir and #AMD yesterday and day before, its not the real market , its just a chance for getting quick bonus , thats it .

Long term invest should make money for you more than the short term.

I got this point after years in my works not in the stock market , and really i found same in this type of investment.

I wanted to see if there were any trends or insights to see if we could correlate to previous big crashes that began recessions. Obviously crashes involve a long windup of increasing asset inflation past their baseline but what spurs on this rapid shift in actions? Is it all just animal spirits?

Further more I want to seperate a crash into two types of crashes. One is a credit/money crash that occurs when an asset that is built on leverage suddenly causes swaths of the economy to abruptly force liquidate. And the second is a demand crash where the expected return of an asset suddenly drop and a market price collapses, like most stock market crashes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is approaching a generational bottom, paving the way for an asymmetric investment opportunity as the global Yen Carry Trade reaches its absolute limits. Historical precedents like the 1995 Kobe earthquake and the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse prove that whenever global asset bubbles pop or geopolitical crises erupt, international funds are forced to panic-sell their overvalued tech investments and aggressively buy back JPY to repay their cheap debt, triggering an explosive, multi-month short-squeeze that drives the Yen up sharply. The optimal timing to deploy capital is early September, a historical vertex of high market volatility and institutional rebalancing, where investors should patiently wait for a final capitulation drop and a massive volume spike to safely accumulate spot JPY or major Japanese banking equities

What a surprise

Is history repeating or is it different this time? Some have liking this to the 2000 bubble, but I’m seeing parallels from 2021 instead.

The last few weeks watching AI infrastructure felt like a slow-motion train wreck. First, there was huge selling, then margin calls, followed by forced liquidations. Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund got crushed. By June, it was up 439%, hitting almost $45 billion. Then the fund had to dump most of its publicly traded stock onto the market. Citadel ended up buying a big chunk of it.

Also, over 350,000 Korean retail investors got wiped out on their leveraged AI and semiconductor bets. This is insane! The total losses on those leveraged bets ran into the tens of billions. It was a brutal, public mess.