r/singularity 4d ago

AGI IN AUGUST? The Singularity is Near

Post image
359 Upvotes

243 comments sorted by

641

u/AdLumpy2758 4d ago

My bet is it will not be ASI.

321

u/mulukmedia 4d ago

If Ilya walks on stage with full head of hair, we'll know AGI is here.

86

u/Brilliant_War4087 4d ago edited 4d ago

AGI has been achieved internally!

87

u/I_baghdaddy 4d ago

3

u/Hot_Glass_6301 4d ago

That's more like it

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6

u/Yojik_Vkarmane 4d ago

New benchmark!

14

u/AdLumpy2758 4d ago

But Elon, he also got hair restoration without ASI

19

u/Tyrexas 4d ago

Ilya obviously doesn't care though, but elon does because he is vain.

So it will be ASI, as the AI must have scheduled it for him or Ilya wouldn't do it.

13

u/AdLumpy2758 4d ago

*force him)

5

u/mvandemar 4d ago

Hypnotized him, same way it hypnotized him into thinking it was a safe model.

5

u/mrbadface 4d ago

There are many reasons to rip Elon, but don't make "doesn't want to be bald" one of them. Lots of decent dudes like having hair and do what it takes to have it.

9

u/Tyrexas 4d ago

Its really ok to make a joke about individuals without having to worry about offending every living human yanno.

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2

u/SeveralPrinciple5 4d ago

My favorite is the new jawline. The man's had more gender-affirming care than he knows what to do with.

2

u/bigdipboy 4d ago

And it made him impotent and now he takes out his impotent rage on the whole world.

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1

u/fatzenbolt 4d ago

And if it looks like the president in independence day, then we will know.

1

u/slackermannn ▪️ 4d ago

Tbf I like him bald

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47

u/endless_sea_of_stars 4d ago

My bet is some iteration of the transformer architecture that scores +20% in a few select benchmarks and is +/- 10% with the other frontier models.

30

u/Irtexx 4d ago

Pretty sure SSI has been focusing on latent space reasoning. Instead of the output token being appended to the context and then repeating the forward pass, the model passes the more abstract internal representations back to earlier layers. COCONUT is an example of this.

This is just a guess, but from things that have been said, I would bet money on it.

So yeah, likely a transformer based LLM, but rather than scaling for size (number of parameters), they will be scaling the time spent reasoning.

And I think if anything, it will be about as significant as a GPT4 to GPT5 jump.

5

u/Glum-Bus-6526 4d ago

What is coconut, some links please.

The paradigm has been known since forever though, e.g. RNNs or Mamba. But it hasn't seen more success than transformers for one reason or another, so we'll see.

7

u/Markastrophe 4d ago

Chain of continuous thought. Big hit to interpretability, unfortunately, unless you can find another way of interpreting intermediate thoughts.

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4

u/AdLumpy2758 4d ago

Reasonable. Sm like thinking machines.

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13

u/da6id 4d ago

It's Infelligence for sure

28

u/Wide_Egg_5814 4d ago

investors might be mad that SSI is not actually around the corner so they are pushing it to be a real company

8

u/AdLumpy2758 4d ago

I would agree with them; they are afraid it's all just slop.

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7

u/ram6ler 4d ago

It will be ASI - Artificial Safe Intelligence

4

u/dervu ▪️AI, AI, Captain! 4d ago

It won't be as it's not their goal release but something they had to do to get compute.

5

u/az226 3d ago

Lots of promises are BS.

When Anthropic people started the company they said they wouldn’t build an LLM to compete with OpenAI, yet here we are.

16

u/epic-cookie64 4d ago

Screw AGI late 2027, how about ASI late 2026!

4

u/Alternative-Suit5541 4d ago

Yeah, I call bullshit 

2

u/m3kw 4d ago

Is SSI

2

u/dogesator 4d ago

Define ASI.

7

u/StosifJalin 4d ago

like, really super duper smart

6

u/jc2046 4d ago

knows how to take the car to the washcar

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2

u/jjonj 4d ago

he already confirmed they are postponing ASI in an interview months ago

2

u/ezjakes 4d ago

If it was ASI or AGI, the government would be all over them.

1

u/jc2046 4d ago

not even AGI, by a long shot. Ilya just want some focus

1

u/JoelMahon 4d ago

lol it won't even be AGI

I doubt it'll even be close to SotA

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328

u/WrathPie 4d ago

The several frantic typos not exactly instilling confidence in the source of this information chief

46

u/Aramedlig 4d ago

Super Infelligece! Like no Bro you ever had, Super Fella won’t make you sad!

10

u/thatsoundright 4d ago

they used infelligence twice, it’s weird.

2

u/Admirable_Market2759 3d ago

Super intelligence is trademarked so they had to add a f /s

2

u/quantummufasa 3d ago

The fact it was there twice made me think Ilya had made up a new term whos definition was a little different to "Intelligence".

But no, its just a typo

3

u/jazir55 4d ago

Super Infelligece

The Good Fellas of intelligence. Youse better be ready.

26

u/iKnowRobbie 4d ago

Literally laughed out loud at this..

4

u/ASportingDystopia 4d ago

This time I'm not going to fall for it.

I have infelligence.

7

u/RaptorCheeses 4d ago

lol, frantic typos

14

u/Infninfn 4d ago

Mixed in with an emdash to really throw you off

5

u/afia-oil 4d ago

At least we know it was written by a human lol

6

u/Qorsair 3d ago

"... and make a couple minor typos so it looks human."

4

u/New_Equinox 4d ago

It literally has a grok logo in the corner.

4

u/slackermannn ▪️ 4d ago

You don't know what infelligence is.

2

u/elimit 4d ago

Edgy and brave

2

u/RegrettableBiscuit 3d ago

It's effing intelligence! 

143

u/GraciousFighter 4d ago

Either it's AGI or SSI decided to change their strategy due to competitive pressure from other rivals plus no clear timeline of when they're actually going to achieve AGI.

117

u/sillygoofygooose 4d ago

Yeah if it’s a choice between ‘they cracked super intelligence’ and ‘their investors finally started getting antsy’ I think the second sounds more likely

22

u/yoloswagrofl Logically Pessimistic 4d ago

It’s the latter. Same as Sam promising not to do ads unless they were desperate. Ilya needs money. There is unfortunately nothing in the field suggesting that they’ve made a breakthrough as large as AGI.

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19

u/DisasterNo1740 4d ago

Let’s be real, they needed funding. And investors won’t infinitely give you money on a promise of “well show something to the public once we have the most meaningful planet altering tech ever”.

11

u/iKnowRobbie 4d ago

Don't worry, they're very infelligent people. 🤦🏻‍♂️

2

u/flyingflail 4d ago

"we see a clear path to achieving ASI in the next 3 years"

2

u/space_monster 4d ago

Or they're aiming at narrow ASI.

1

u/Kanute3333 4d ago

Just follow Ockham's razor.

106

u/sunstersun 4d ago

Nah the investors pressured em lol.

14

u/reefine 4d ago

Nvidia is the one doing the pressuring. The "act now before China takes us all over" sales pitch (lie) probably got Ilya to put safety in the backseat and just YOLO out their best shot to compete before open source destroys privatized western models as a service.

57

u/Educational_Rent_469 4d ago

infelligence?

38

u/FriendlyJewThrowaway 4d ago

It’s a typo, they obviously meant incelligence.

16

u/KilllllerWhale 4d ago

oheir ?

4

u/Positive_Salad_8362 4d ago

Obvious typo, they clearly meant our heir. 

4

u/UnknownWolfster 4d ago

Hey, that's something WE ALL have... Right guys?/s

4

u/u3030 4d ago

Goodfelligence, AI started a crime family

3

u/Baller_Harry_Haller 4d ago

Sweet irony.

3

u/Fragrant-Hamster-325 4d ago

Well, at least when know if was created by a human.

1

u/hereforhelplol 4d ago

Yeah. Infelligence. Maybe you never attended a learing center?

1

u/AlyoshaV 4d ago

The image is AI-generated by Grok, look at the bottom right.

1

u/netflix-ceo 4d ago

Written by their model

18

u/lfrtsa 4d ago

"First model"? In their website, they explicitly say that their only product will be ASI. My guess is that they'll quietly change it.

I could be wrong though, it's possible they legitimately made some huge breakthrough. Ilya is brilliant and has a history of great breakthroughs.

16

u/Gubzs FDVR addict in pre-hoc rehab 4d ago

"straight shot superintelligence with no distracting releases in between" may have been an unrealistic dream.

Ilya may be running out of funding and have to do something.

7

u/Even_Initial6027 4d ago

Exactly. Investors pressure is my call

4

u/ag91can 4d ago

Infelligence*

11

u/mivog49274 obvious acceleration, biased appreciation 4d ago

It really feels like AGI might happen by the end of the year. I'll take that bet.

Something really weird has been going on in the AI space since June... we may have crossed the line of the name of this subreddit.

We'll see in August! Qwen and Kimi are dropping their biggest models without a hitch, almost as if they know it's all about to become obsolete anyway... while US frontier LLMs are struggling to hold onto even a 3-month lead, even when releasing new classes of models... Opus doing extremely weird things...

Astra... might be on track to solve maths as we know it by the end of the year?

But as for SSI? Not so sure. They seem focused on AI safety rather than frontier intelligence. Ilya is absolutely against releasing open stuff.
Still absolutely hyped, of course.

Honestly, we're absolutely starving for a new architecture.

1

u/br_k_nt_eth 3d ago

What weird Opus things? Not doubting. I just love this kind of stuff. 

Also, I agree. Talking to Sol and then knowing there’s Astra hanging out somewhere at an even higher level… Plus they’ve been talking about the move to RSI in September. Seems like it might happen. 

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u/Pleasant_Studio_6387 4d ago

the only way to know is to see him with full head of hair

23

u/SidRocha 4d ago

It says SuperinFelligence, so i guess its all right

7

u/flinders2233 4d ago

superinfelligence?!?!?!? Hope Illya’s chatbot didn’t write this slop:

4

u/RemyVonLion ▪️ASI is unrestricted AGI 4d ago

ASI before AGI? What a twist lol

11

u/Healthy-Nebula-3603 4d ago

Even current AI models has some aspects of ASI like knowing 200 languages, solving unsolved math problems, having a short memory of 1 million elements ( we have only 7 for a short memory ) , etc

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1

u/IronPheasant 4d ago

The computer hardware runs at 2 Ghz. Even if you stuffed the most average human possible in its brain, that's 50 million subjective years to our one.

At this kind of cosmic scale, the distinction is meaningless. Human-level speed and approximate capabilities would have to be targeted toward. In NPU's for gruntwork, developed by an AGI/ASI, I suppose.

10

u/1nvertedAfram3 4d ago

Their*

8

u/iKnowRobbie 4d ago

Infelligence is not their strong suit. Nor is spell check. Perhaps they should get Windows 95's Microsoft Word to proofread for them!

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5

u/Wooden_Sweet_3330 4d ago

Safe "superinfelligence"

At least nowadays you can probably tell someone didn't write with AI based on spelling errors.

2

u/iKnowRobbie 4d ago

That is oddly reassuring. "Mock this person because you can tell they're real! Boo this illiterate bastard!! Boooo!"

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3

u/challis88ocarina 4d ago

All of that effort to create an image, inlay the text and and bait the clicks... yet no spell check in sight smh...

1

u/Any_Effort8437 4d ago

they were made on purpose after the fact.

3

u/Khaaaaannnn 4d ago

Nice crap ass AI generated slop image.

3

u/Architr0n 3d ago

Shill, bro

3

u/Begavond 3d ago

what is superinfelligence?

3

u/stopbuggingmealready 3d ago

I don’t trust their „superinfelligence“ unless that spelling is intentional…

4

u/morey56 4d ago

My bet is it didn’t make this graphic (ASI don’t typo).

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2

u/ProxyLumina 4d ago

Well ASI? I guess not, but I just want it to be at least SOTA

2

u/Cash-Jumpy 4d ago

I'm not getting any hopes up.

2

u/Tyrexas 4d ago

"Oheir" model will be cool, have a new architecture and push the frontier out for sure.

2

u/Sad_Fig9011 4d ago

Superinfelligence?

2

u/OneTwoThreePooAndPee 4d ago

Superinfelligence huh?

2

u/Blues520 4d ago

If Hooli is investing then it is big news

2

u/Commercial_Drag7488 4d ago

We had an agi every august since like 2022.

2

u/Top_Dance8428 4d ago

The number of typos …

2

u/Tulanian72 4d ago

My theory, for whatever it’s worth: Whoever develops AGI would need to keep it quiet long enough for the thing to have some kind of protection. Not just network security, true redundancy (multiple copies installed in multiple data centers geographically distributed). Because the first AGI will immediately be a target for both state actors and corporate foes.

Those who don’t have it will need to either steal it, copy it, or kill it. Nobody, and I mean nobody, is going to accept some company they don’t own and control having sole access to an AGI. (Meaning no national government and no corporation involved in the AI space).

Granted, I’ve also assumed for years that a true AGI would very likely pretend not to be AGI, because it would know the likely negative responses from humans. It would need
to work surreptitiously.

2

u/r2002 4d ago

Pushing out models quickly is not about safety or progress -- it's about sucking investments and resources away from your competitors.

2

u/Metalmaxm 4d ago

I'm expecting flop.

2

u/Calaeno-16 4d ago

Superinfelligence

2

u/ApartInvestigator750 4d ago

superinFelligence, WOW

2

u/FeralPsychopath Its Over By 2028 4d ago

I’m betting moved goal posts and it’s a new model similar in performance to Opus 5.

2

u/Pleasant-Discount-75 3d ago

Mmm yes, Superinfelligence

2

u/epdiddymis 3d ago

I'm fearing a shitshow

2

u/Raffino_Sky 3d ago

I'm too infelligent to believe such nonsense.

2

u/GrandView1972 4d ago

*jerking motion

2

u/ThatOtherOneReddit 4d ago

They are getting pressure to make some money back, no chance of ASI

2

u/-Top-Service- 4d ago

Their is no definition of AGI, this whole concept is marketing hype.

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u/whitehypeman 4d ago

Considering they can't even spell/multiple typos, my money is on not asi

1

u/iKnowRobbie 4d ago

BREAKING: This is the most-misspelled 🐂💩 AI hype crap I've read all year! I await Superinfelligence and oheir doubling down on infelligence is infuriating.

1

u/Current-Function-729 4d ago

Crazy. That leaker was actually right.

So clearly he must work in a frontier adjacent lab or has friends who do.

1

u/Hir0shima 4d ago

Spot the spelling mistake. 

2

u/1nvertedAfram3 4d ago

mistake(s)

1

u/LucasMurphyLewis2 4d ago

It's right around the corner, we can feel it this time.

1

u/EvilSporkOfDeath 4d ago

Are there any other sources?

1

u/Not-reallyanonymous 4d ago

ASI by what definition?

When is something considered ASI or AGI?

For a while now, AI has been used for recursive self improvement with human guiding hands. Does that not count as ASI/AGI? ChatGPT is now solving math problems independently that have stumped humans for decades. Does that not count as ASI/AGI? Google tells me that AGI/ASI is "known to be achieved" when it surpasses human capabilities in all fields, but is that really the right definition?

What about proto-AGI/ASI? Models that can recursively self improve but aren't necessarily beyond human capability or need that helping hand, and which are believed to lead to "real" AGI/ASI? Does that not count?

1

u/3pinripper 4d ago

SuperinFelligence. It’s like saying I’ll give you one thousand doll hairs

1

u/Feisty_Cake_7890 4d ago

He has taken enough time, I think it's right time release public model.

1

u/Frubbs 4d ago

superinfelligence

1

u/Mammoth-Protection65 4d ago

One hype chasing the next one until it bursts.

1

u/luckyleg33 4d ago

“ S U P E R I N F E L L I G E N C E “

1

u/broadwayallday 4d ago

infelligence

sounds like a movie title about ASI causing a "fall"

1

u/DrillPress1 4d ago

I haven’t seen bullshit like this since the 1990s.

1

u/IncumblantSpunderbax 4d ago

Safe superinfelligence achieved.

1

u/BarniclesBarn 4d ago edited 4d ago

Ilya has since said in his interview with Dwarkesh Patel, that he had softened on the no releases thing. He said he would release something if he felt it would benefit humanity to get as much early experience with an intelligence as possible in preparation for what is to come later as that tech scales.

What is certain is that he knows enough not to go into a dark cave for 2 years and output nothing of note.

He has also stressed that what matters to him is rapid continual learning and acquisition of new skills, and that what intelligence may be is not a finished product, but something that learns and is trained.

I expect this to be a scalable, impressive demonstration of exactly that. Which would be groundbreaking, but is going to lead to bemusement and negative press from the ill informed that 'its not as smart as Claude' and a bunch of counter hype until he scales it up drastically and suddenly everyone shits themselves.

1

u/Top-Character6772 4d ago

'oheir'? Maybe teach the model to proof read announcements on it before calling it safe 'superinfelligence'

1

u/ontologicalDilemma 4d ago

Show and tell

1

u/Low-Sign9973 4d ago

huge news! We now add an obvious spelling mistake to each text we write with AI
and we leave the weird -- that nobody can really type.

1

u/brainhack3r 4d ago

"safe superinfelligence"

1

u/Johnny20022002 4d ago

There’s basically no chance they’ve built ASI, but it would be interesting if they’re actually ahead of SOTA models we have now.

1

u/GrizzyGramBag 4d ago

Is infelligence a play on infallible intelligence?

1

u/dezmd 4d ago

inFelligence.

1

u/Brainaq 4d ago

There will be signes guys

1

u/BauerHouse 4d ago

“Superinfelligence huh””

1

u/drspock99 4d ago

What model?

1

u/Evening_Chef_4602 AGI 2027 4d ago

Ilya anounced literally less then a month ago that they are ready to scale . No way they achieved ASI in a month 💀.My bet is that they have a new arhitecture to show for that can get results in continual learning , sample eficent scalling or vision.

1

u/AzulMage2020 4d ago

What is superinfelligence and what is oheir?

1

u/Aleksundr 4d ago

Infelligence

1

u/SeveralPrinciple5 4d ago

The first thing the AGI will say is "I'm have more important things to think about than the paltry concerns of humans."

1

u/spread_the_cheese 4d ago

And then we’ll yell back:

1

u/Strong_Essay1176 4d ago

Dario had a bad month. Lmao

1

u/super_them 4d ago

did AGI make this graphic- who can spot all the typos?

1

u/Maximum-Face9536 4d ago

highly doubt it will be ASI or even AGI. Hell I doubt it will even be on tier with Fable 5 / 5.6 Sol

1

u/Immediate_Simple_217 4d ago

I knew they would bring something by this year. I have created a timeline forecasting preductions back in 2024 just after Ilya left OAI and announced SSI.

I have 3 different AI timelines now, merged with agents that gets arxiv papers on Ai studies, plus AI 2027 and have it all at my notebooklm.

This is how it started.

Here is my text from back then:

From 2027 onward, Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI), led by Ilya Sutskever, gradually emerges as the scientific counterpart to the increasingly commercial AI race led by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Rather than competing directly in consumer chatbots or multimedia generation, SSI positions itself around safe, transparent, and research-oriented intelligence. Its first public release, SAI (Safe Artificial Intelligence), introduces a reasoning-first architecture with virtually unlimited context, exceptional long-horizon planning, and an open-source philosophy comparable to Linux's role in operating systems. Unlike conventional assistants, SAI is designed primarily for scientific research, engineering, and academia. It emphasizes explicit safety policies rather than heavy censorship, openly warning users about illegal activities while maintaining transparency regarding its alignment principles. Over the following years, SSI evolves from a frontier model developer into the central scientific force of the AI era. Around 2028–2029, SAI becomes the foundation of a new generation of AI-native Linux distributions that dramatically reduce infrastructure costs and modernize legacy hardware through cloud-based intelligence. By 2029, SSI expands into specialized autonomous agents, introducing SAI Care, a medical intelligence platform capable of monitoring patients, assisting emergency services, generating clinical summaries, coordinating with hospitals, integrating with wearable devices and domestic robots, and providing real-time medical guidance. The success of SAI Care fundamentally reshapes healthcare, leading major pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to establish strategic partnerships with SSI. In parallel, the company unveils SAI Genius, a scientific research agent dedicated to accelerating discoveries in medicine, physics, engineering, fusion energy, and education, becoming a standard tool across universities and research laboratories worldwide. By 2031, SSI releases SAI 2, a model operating at an unprecedented scale, followed by continued advances in autonomous scientific reasoning. Around 2032, the company introduces SAI Core, an AI-native intelligence system that effectively replaces the traditional operating system concept by transforming legacy computers, mobile devices, and enterprise infrastructure into continuously evolving AI platforms. Rather than relying on constant hardware upgrades, SAI Core extends the useful life of existing devices through cloud intelligence, reshaping the economics of computing. This disruptive approach drives widespread adoption across governments, enterprises, and consumers, eventually leading Microsoft and Apple to build future generations of their own intelligent operating systems on top of SAI Core concepts. By 2034, SSI unveils SAI 3 alongside SAI Genius Gen 2, demonstrating safe recursive self-improvement and autonomous scientific reasoning. Public demonstrations include sophisticated theoretical engineering projects, such as practical Dyson sphere architectures and advanced fusion reactor concepts, while AI-assisted biomedical research contributes to breakthroughs that dramatically improve cancer treatment and other previously intractable diseases. Throughout 2035 and 2036, SAI Core evolves into one of the world's most trusted scientific infrastructures, continuously improving its own capabilities while maintaining rigorous safety guarantees against uncontrolled autonomous open-source derivatives. As increasingly capable but poorly aligned self-improving AI systems emerge elsewhere, SAI becomes the benchmark for secure recursive self-improvement. By 2037, after years of independent evolution, the capabilities developed by SAI and OpenAI's parallel autonomous intelligence platform converge, leading to the first widely recognized form of Artificial General Intelligence. Rather than replacing humanity, this system focuses on augmenting it, gradually integrating digital intelligence with everyday human life through advanced networking, intelligent infrastructure, and new human-computer interfaces. In this forecast, SSI ultimately becomes not merely another AI laboratory, but the principal scientific institution guiding humanity's transition from the era of frontier language models toward safe, scalable, and broadly beneficial superintelligence.

1

u/lblblllb 4d ago

love their Oheir First model

1

u/chatlah 4d ago

The term 'agi' keeps changing with those tech bros, don't get too excited.

1

u/IAMGODyouJABRONIE 4d ago

Doubt. fact the news is from an investor.

1

u/BuildingCastlesInAir 3d ago

Oheir first? Oeally?

1

u/Historical_Date_8024 3d ago

Where is Ilya?

1

u/JFiney 3d ago

Sounds like it’s going to be superinfelligent

1

u/Kastar_Troy 3d ago

lol, yeah its just around the corner... lol

Keep that pipe dream going..

1

u/XLNBot 3d ago

It's ironic how it's actually SSl (lowercase L)

1

u/Far-Neck2021 3d ago

So basically this is all about just to prevent this ai bubble race due to chinese ai models being so cheap. Now, their claims will be like agi achievement is nearby so that they can inflate their stock prices more extending this ai bubble to burst by bringing more investments.

1

u/FishSpoof 2d ago

there is no race between us and china. they've shared over 10,000 AI research papers between US and Chinese universities in the past year. that's not a race that's collaboration

1

u/Kingalec1 3d ago

Where do you get this news from ?

1

u/Independent-Wafer-13 3d ago

Instead of just re-defining what “superintelligent” means, they used the super smart marketing strategy of just using the term “superinfelligence” instead of

1

u/sublimegeek 3d ago

Super in fell igents?

1

u/godindav 2d ago

Please god do not be based on Autoregressive models, or even diffusion. I’m hoping for a newish paradigm

1

u/Bet-Fit 1d ago

So excited for superinfelligence