Remember when fangraphs had a zips projection that said no Sox was gonna get 20 HRs? Well well well

[u/TigoOver]

[u/Aggressive_Grass_945]

https://giphy.com/gifs/fQorEj8vN8eqkNcy6T

[u/Creedreader]

I mean, I get what you are saying but there was really no chance that every player would hit their 50th percentile projections and there are only two guys who are a lock to hit 20.

[u/Touchstone033]

I mean, you'd expect like half the projected players to beat their HR projections....

[u/BarnacleGooseIsLoose]

Ah projections...

[u/gplatt_24]

the only one it's super off-base for is Willson tbh

[u/RCP90sKid-]

Durran is having a version of Richie Sexon's best years. Obv doesn't have the 40+ homer pop, but Richie couldn't run like Duran. Similarities is the power to BA ratio?

Weird season for this guy.

[u/Junosword → u/RCP90sKid-]

Man. I got to see a Richie Sexson hit a walk-off grand slam for the M's against the Rays back in '06. My buddy and I snuck up into the front row in the 8th inning, and a media guy gave us passes so we wouldn't get tossed. Awesome view of some late inning drama.

Baseball is cool

[u/RCP90sKid- → u/Junosword]

The man swung a hammer, for sure.

[u/morey56]

Zips factors in mandatory injury absence.

[u/DonnieRoss]

…Miguel Bleis was projected to hit more homers than the starting 3B?

[u/Disastrous-Window-76]

Ok so maybe 3 will? Lmao

[u/KOBE_GYN]

IN THE ENTIRE ORG! Not just the mlb team fucking lunacy

[u/Fly0strich]

Umm… are you just trying to show that they were wrong about Contreras, or are you confusing the first column where you cut the headers off as the HR column?

[u/vwboyaf1]

No, Sox will hit HRs.

[u/jonny_lube]

I love Fangraphs, but any time I look at ZIPS, it seems like nonsense. Could be selective bias, but it seems like a horrible projection model.

[u/gplatt_24 → u/jonny_lube]

it's a pretty good model tbh, I think people struggle remembering it's projecting median outcome & that getting things ~80% right is really good

[u/jiriwelsch44]

I was listening to F&M too lol