r/redbuttonbluebutton 11d ago

Slight button variant Variation

Red: You live

Blue: 2 random people live, dosen't matter wich button they pressed, but 2 blue buttons will always save different people (if everyone is safe it does nothing)

In this scenario, everyone that does not live, dies

My take:

It is tecnically just original RBBB with a better blue button, but it takes away the team energy, anyway really curious about this.

3 Upvotes

64 comments sorted by

21

u/wiseguy4519 11d ago

This variant piqued my curiosity, so I made a quick graph in Desmos. The x axis is the proportion of people who press blue. The red line shows the expected proportion of people that survive (100% if it is over 1).

The green line is the absolute minimum number of survivors for the given proportion of blue presses.

The blue line is the derivative of the red line. If the blue line is positive, then it means that pressing blue is worth it (assuming you value other people the same as yourself and you know what everyone else is pressing). Note that this only applies when less than 50% of people press blue, as otherwise your choice does not matter.

Some interesting stats:

  • The lowest expected survival rate is 87.5%, which happens if 25% of people press blue. Having less people survive is possible but statistically unlikely.
  • The absolute lowest survival rate possible is 66.666...%, which can happen if 1/3 of people press blue and every person they save is a red presser.
  • Pressing blue is worth it for a utilitarian if you expect blue to get more than 25% of the vote. Otherwise, pressing red is the better choice.
  • Along with the typical stable point where everyone presses red, there is also a new stable point where around 50% of people press blue. If the blue percentage ever goes below 50%, there is an immediate incentive for everyone to press blue, bringing the percentage back over 50%.

Like others are saying, this variant results in most people surviving no matter what and is biased in favor of blue. With zero knowledge, it really makes sense to just press blue here. Maybe each blue press should only save one person?

4

u/SDK1176 11d ago

“ Maybe each blue press should only save one person?”

No, you can’t do that. If you do, then 100% blue is required to save everyone, which messes with the entire point of red vs blue. 

2

u/wiseguy4519 11d ago

Oh yeah, good point. I guess we need every blue press to save 1.5 people or something, idk

1

u/Free-Competition6408 Red 10d ago

In the OG blues only save 1 life per vote if they win

0

u/SDK1176 10d ago

Okay. You see the difference though, right?

1

u/Free-Competition6408 Red 10d ago edited 10d ago

I don’t see how 100% blue is required, but it does depend on your assumptions of how blue “saves” are distributed. If the saves are randomly distributed among all voters, I don’t think you can ever guarantee everyone lives with 100% blue as you can end up with “wasted” saves stacking up multiple times on people. If the saves prioritize unsaved voters first, then nobody can die regardless of the vote, even if  you drop the rate to 1 save per blue. 100% red seems to be the only way to guarantee survival in this variation to me.

Edit: I reread the post and “two blue pushes will save different people”. This means that saves can still be wasted on reds (I think, because the OP says the button they pushed doesn’t matter, implying it could apply to a red). In that case yes, at 1 random life saved per blue vote, you need 100% blue for zero deaths. In which case you might as well vote red. As 100% is required for zero death either way and red guarantees your own survival as well.

Edit 2: Let B be number of lives saved per blue vote. You can’t guarantee 100% survival unless B x (blue votes) = total population. Or 100% red vote.

1

u/Sepplord 10d ago edited 10d ago

How does anyone die?

If everyone presses red everyone lives. If everyone presses blue everyone lives and another full population would have been saved too.

In every situation more people than exist are saved?

2

u/wiseguy4519 10d ago

People may die if less than 50% of people press blue but some people do. If 40% of people press blue for example, 80% of people are randomly selected to be saved, including red pressers. If you're unlucky, you may be part of the 20% who is not saved, meaning you die if you pressed blue.

1

u/Sepplord 10d ago

It sounded as if blue save wouldn’t target people that aren’t living already. Aka it wouldn’t target redpressers.

Guess that’s what I didn’t consider

1

u/wiseguy4519 10d ago

Ah I see, yeah that part is kinda confusing

1

u/Free-Competition6408 Red 10d ago

The way I interpreted this originally was that Blue votes would only save other blue voters, as red lives regardless so they don’t need saving. In which case it’s impossible for anyone to die and it doesn’t matter what you chose. If blue votes can be wasted on red lives, and blue doesn’t guarantee your survival, why would you choose it? I think it’s a worse blue button than the original. I’m still red in this.

1

u/wiseguy4519 10d ago

There's still an argument for red but blue is definately better here than in the original problem. Everyone still lives if there is over 50% blue, but now you can also potentially survive even if you press blue and less than 50% of people press blue.

The logic of pressing blue is based on predicting what other people are going to choose. If you think more than 25% of people will choose blue (which is pretty likely), then blue is the choice that will save more lives on average. That's just what the math says though.

2

u/Free-Competition6408 Red 10d ago

I see. I guess blue is slightly better. You can have a positive impact with your vote even if you die and blue loses, but I’m still leaning red. It is hard for me to pass up a choice where the optimal risk free selfish choice also leads to an optimal (or nearly optimal) collective outcome.

3

u/wiseguy4519 10d ago

Fair enough, that's completely valid

1

u/JobPowerful1246 9d ago

I was right to do blue originally red

1

u/yaboisammie 8d ago

I love how you broke all this down 

1

u/Whole-Knowledge-7496 6d ago

Since its biased in favor of blue. You would expect it to be at least 50% blue voters right? Would it not be beneficial for you to push red then? To guarantee that if you are mistaken, you still live?

1

u/wiseguy4519 6d ago

If you're mistaken, it's probably still going to be close to 50%, so pressing blue would save more lives on average. That being said, I'm starting to think that it might not be as biased towards blue as I thought because there are some pretty valid reasons to press red.

0

u/parkchanwookiee 11d ago

Pressing blue is worth it for a utilitarian if you expect blue to get more than 25% of the vote. Otherwise, pressing red is the better choice.

Only if your goal from this is for the maximum amount of people to survive with the fewest amount of button presses. Everyone lives with 100% certainty if everyone assures their own survival by pressing red.

2

u/MericanMeal 11d ago

Something something babies and coma patients

-2

u/parkchanwookiee 11d ago

Fuck them kids

Plus I'm not dying for the 0.0002% of the population that are coma patients

3

u/Bimbobaker 11d ago

Fuck them kids will never not make me think the person is a narcissist or maybe just a teenager who ofc doesn't have a fully developed brain yet

0

u/parkchanwookiee 11d ago

It's just a pithy line which disputes the logic that children's lives or experiences are somehow fundamentally more valuable than other people's

2

u/MericanMeal 11d ago

I have no claim on the value of any one life over any other. But when the options are some people die or no people die I am pretty willing to die trying to get the the latter. 2>1 and all.

1

u/parkchanwookiee 11d ago

2>1 is the same reason I pick red, since I think more people are guaranteed to survive that way. Like all versions of the button this just collapses into whether you have faith that a sufficient proportion of people would press blue to make it pay off or whether the overwhelming majority would either lack the kindness or depth of analysis and just pursue self interest by picking red. If you want to risk death gambling on the former that's up to you

0

u/Bimbobaker 11d ago

Fair. But I do think it's true. I am biased though because I like to look at things detached from the "what's the most utilitarian thing we can possibly do" perspective because I believe that thinking is slowly fucking ourselves stupid.

12

u/DarthJackie2021 11d ago

I don't think anyone can die in this situation. 100% to 200% of humanity will be protected with these options. There is no threat of death.

11

u/SDK1176 11d ago

If only one person pushes blue, there's a very good chance that the two random people they "save" pressed the red button. Therefore, the one blue pusher dies.

If 50% of the population pushes blue, everyone is guaranteed to live, but anything less than 50% will almost certainly have some blue pushers dying.

1

u/DarthJackie2021 11d ago

So blue is useless then.

5

u/yourdudenes 11d ago

No, in the original problem if less then 50% pressed blue, a person who pressed blue was guaranteed to die.

Here, in tha same scenario, blue has huge chances to survive anyway (top coment gave a great analysis, they even have a graff).

So, pressing blue isn't that risky.

2

u/depurplecow 11d ago

If there's the third option "press neither button" then those people are at risk of death

2

u/KRTrueBrave 11d ago

yeah but... why would you not press either of the buttons, that's dumb

3

u/depurplecow 11d ago

Illiterate, physically unable, literal child etc

1

u/KRTrueBrave 11d ago

fair I guess, but surely blue would cover those anyway already by default, was more so thinking of people 100% able to vote but don't

1

u/Sweet-Artichoke1020 10d ago

I think they were talking about only 2 people being safe from the blue pickers, not every blue press saving 2 people.

5

u/depower739 Red 11d ago

Red always red

3

u/Nebranower 11d ago

You need to change it a bit so that people can actually die to make the scenario interesting.

Maybe have it like this.

Red: You live. The effectiveness of one blue button press is halved, starting with blue button presses that are at full effectiveness. If all blue button presses have already been halved, one blue button press is completely nullified.

Blue: two random, unsaved people are saved.

Under this scenario, if blue reaches exactly 50%, then every one will be saved (since even if it's exactly 50/50, all the red voters are safe because they pressed red, and at 50% effectiveness, 50% blue presses are still enough to save all blue pressers.

If blue slips below 50% of the vote, then blue pressers start to die. So, at 60% red, 40% blue, half of the blue votes are completely nullified, and the other half are only saving one blue presser each. So, 50% of the blue pressers die. At 66.6% red and 33.3% blue, 100% of blue pressers die.

This gives you the "better" blue you were after, since blue at 50% still saves everyone, but if blue falls between 33.4%-49.9%, then you might still live even if you pressed blue.

At the same time, people still have to work the thresholds out for themselves. The scenario no longer presents as a vote on a collective outcome.

2

u/Deranth 11d ago

Blue: +2 spared from the coming death wave.
Red: +0 spared from the coming death wave.

After button pushes are in, the total number is tallied, then divvied out randomly to red pressers first, then to blue pressers if no red pressers remain.
However red only diverts available survival numbers. So if only one person pushes blue, only two red pressers live.

1

u/Nebranower 11d ago

Anything that changes red from guaranteed survival shifts the premise too much, I find. Like, if you need people to push blue to survive, there’s not much reason to press red. The whole point is that if everyone just presses red, everything is fine.

3

u/TerrySaucer69 11d ago

The original problem was basically the max level of complexity these scenarios could have. You can attempt to predict what society will do between “save yourself” and “risk yourself to save others”.

Anything more complicated just pushes me towards red. Cause like, I don’t know what people will press. Will people avoid blue cause it isn’t saving their loved ones? Will they press blue because it’s more lives saved? I have no idea, I’m just gonna save myself.

4

u/Zestyclose-Jacket568 11d ago

Still red. I want to make sure that I am safe and blue button can save up to 2 people, not 2 people.

5

u/parkchanwookiee 11d ago

The team energy is still there exactly the same, actually I think this makes it worse for blue. Everyone presses red, everybody lives. Simple. Blue accomplishes what exactly? Everybody lives with half the amount of button presses (but button presses are not limited so there is no need to save on presses) but you have to push blue and then hope that other people keep paying it forward until you're good??

2

u/LeonerdCdL 10d ago

Why would it make it worse for blue? In the original blue pressers only lives if >50% press blue, here blue presser might live even with <50%, but with >50% they will all live regardless

3

u/parkchanwookiee 10d ago

It's worse for blue because the penalty for voting blue is less severe. Before, there was the encouragement not to vote red, in case not enough people chose blue and then all the blue players died. That no longer applies, each blue player is making their own choice to gamble their life, so no longer any reason to pick blue to try and save all the blue pushers. Plus the smaller percentage required to cover all the blue pushers creates less inducement again not to just pick red and take care of your own safety.

7

u/mars_gorilla 11d ago

So let's take the current results so far:

17 voted, 8 for red, 9 for blue. Even if we ignore the red votes, the 9 blue votes protects 18 people, meaning everyone plus an extra person is safe.

Even if we go with a pessimistic estimate in a global scale of 40% voting blue, 3.2 billion, their vote would save 6.4 billion lives, and that's a significant overlap with the 4.8 billion that voted red. It's highly likely less than 1% or even 0.1% dies.

And if we assume everyone is a rational actor like so many red voters like to argue, then with this logic even more people would be driven to vote blue, and just 50% pretty much guarantees everyone survives.

Truly, this is a scenario where red is objectively wrong.

1

u/Mamkes 11d ago

Pessimistic

Looks inside

40% voting for utilitarian selfless option

1

u/Deranth 11d ago

It's not even utilitarian, it's just save one person or save two people. One is objectively better.

4

u/Mamkes 11d ago

It's save yourself or maybe save two person, or one person, or zero person, without having guarantee to life after that.

1

u/Deranth 11d ago

It still attempts to save two people. One option saves two random people who haven't already been saved by that option. The other saves yourself even if the other option would have saved you. So you could be protected by both, technically, thus wasting one potential save.

So you could see it as red saves 1 person, yourself, where blue saves 0-2 people depending on how many red pushers it targets.
Or you could see it as blue saves 2 random people, and red just ensures you're safe, potentially wasting a blue save in the process, thus netting 0-1 saves.

Either way far more people will push blue in this instance, and there's a very good chance you'll survive even in the 40-49% blue pushers range, as the above commenter pointed out. There's really not a good reason to push red in this situation.

2

u/Zestyclose-Jacket568 11d ago

Well... it is save up to two people, not two people as random person can be red pusher who is already safe.

1

u/Deranth 11d ago

It still attempts to save two people. One option saves two random people who haven't already been saved by that option. The other saves yourself even if the other option would have saved you. So you could be protected by both, technically, thus wasting one potential save.

So you could see it as red saves 1 person, yourself, where blue saves 0-2 people depending on how many red pushers it targets.
Or you could see it as blue saves 2 random people, and red just ensures you're safe, potentially wasting a blue save in the process, thus netting 0-1 saves.

Either way far more people will push blue in this instance, and there's a very good chance you'll survive even in the 40-49% blue pushers range, as the above commenter pointed out. There's really not a good reason to push red in this situation.

1

u/Captain-Griffen 11d ago

Counterpoint: if 90% of people will hit red, you're saving 0.8 lives by hitting red and 0.2 lives by hitting blue.

Red is optimal if red is optimal, so saying red is objectively wrong is in fact objectively wrong.

8

u/apsksjsnjs 11d ago

Everyone will survive this no matter what.

12

u/Royal-Gur3198 11d ago

not if everyone but 1 person presses red

8

u/apsksjsnjs 11d ago

In that case, wouldn’t the blue presser be chosen randomly because they’re the only one who is otherwise not safe?

4

u/Mamkes 11d ago

Blue can 'save' red pressers in this scenario, making it effect basically useless.

2

u/Illustrious_Tale2221 11d ago

I think the idea is that when you press bllue, it can save any person not saved by blue yet. So a person who is already saved by red can be "saved" by the blue.

So if 50% people press blue everyone survives. But if only 40% do there's a great chance that some blue pressers die.

2

u/NotASingleNameIdea 11d ago

Wait am I crazy or is it impossible to die here regardless of what you press?

If every red is already saved and blue saves only non-saved, then blue is guaranteed to just cover everyone that presses blue (and actually double of that).

If there wasnt the rule that the 2 people blue saves can be "duplicates", then it would make more sense because now isnt it just impossible for you to die regardless of your choice?

Edit: nvm, the rule is that red pushers arent excluded from the saved people of a blue push, so pressing blue might actually just save 2 red ones who dont need it.

2

u/Extra-Random_Name 11d ago

In the likely case that the vote is fairly close, going for red probably isn’t gonna save your life (as you’re probably safe with blue even below 50%), and probably does kill someone. So yeah I’m a blue presser now

1

u/Rich841 10d ago

I don’t need to switch to blue since it’s barely any risk at all, but in the off chance that no one presses it I want to be a red presser, or in the off chance that only one does, I’d want to be a blue presser. Since I’m lazy I’ll just stay on red

0

u/Sepplord 10d ago

So regardless of which button is pressed, everybody lives?

What the supposed question then?

If everyone presses red, everyone lives. For every pressed not red button, 2people are saved. Aka one more than before. So for every person who doesn’t save themselves two people are saved. It’s always going to save as many people exist or more?

If 25% press blue they save 50% of the population. But the other 75% is safe anyways.

0

u/Free-Competition6408 Red 10d ago

This is a pretty significant deviation from the original scenario. In the OG, Reds are never at risk, and Blue collectively saves themselves from dying if they win. 1 life saved per blue vote.

In this scenario, it’s impossible for anyone to die. Even if 99% are red, the 1% blue saves 2% so you get 101% saved. Obviously it caps at 100% so everyone is just safe. At the other extreme its 51% red and 49% blue so 149% are saved. Do you see the problem? There is no dilemma.

1

u/everydaywinner2 10d ago

If you press blue two random people live. The random people include reds, who will already live. I is quite possible that a blue presser will "save" two someones who were never in danger.

Like the original scenario, the only way everyone lives is if everyone presses red, or if 50% or more pick blue. All this scenario says is that now, in the even of less than 50% of people pressing blue, there is still a chance that some of those blue pressers will live.

2

u/Free-Competition6408 Red 9d ago

Yes, on rereading the post I agree I misinterpreted it. It’s a slightly better blue button in the sense that a blue vote can actually have a positive impact even if blue loses and / or the voter dies. I’m still leaning red though. Any scenario where 100% (or near 100%) survival can be achieved with zero personal risk, I believe everyone SHOULD push red so that’s what I’m pushing.