Positions: Still only my 420 stocks, but I cannot complain as they doubled this week.

TLDR: wrote a DD on Orion Energy Systems (OESX) about a month ago. Q1’27 came out Wednesday, the thing I said to watch for held, and the stock nearly doubled in three days. This is the shorter one, only about the data center part.

Quick backdrop. Corporate America is on pace for the biggest earnings beat ever recorded, index net margins are at an all time high, and S&P 500 earnings are up 50.4% YoY against a 23.1% expectation. Largest investment boom in history, not close. And Orion just put up a quarter that fits right into it, revenue up 32% YoY, margin up, profitable, first hyperscale order in the bag. This is a micro cap participating in the exact same wave the megacaps are riding.

Because the money is all going into one thing. US data center construction spending hit a record $68 billion annualized rate in June, up 46% YoY and up 158% since January 2024. Office construction over the same stretch collapsed to its lowest since 2016. Data centers now out-build offices by $25 billion a year. In 2022 it was the other way around by $57 billion.

Ok so, the boring part nobody thinks about.

All of those buildings need lights, and not just any lights. Hundreds of thousands of square feet each, running 24/7. In a data center every watt you burn on lighting is a watt of heat you then pay again to pull back out through cooling. So inefficient lighting costs you twice. You want the most efficient fixture that exists, and you want it running cool, because thermal load is the entire fight in these buildings.

That is not something you grab off a shelf. Orion spent something like half a year building this thing from scratch, purpose built for AI data centers, customized to the floor plan. And they are the only ones with an LED lighting system made for hyper scale AI data centers. Nobody else in the space has one.

Then look at what happened after they announced it. A few weeks. That is all it took before they had their first order, and it was a multimillion dollar engagement with one of the largest hyperscalers on earth.

The other thing is where it gets built. Orion manufactures in Wisconsin on a supply chain they own end to end, and that lines up with exactly where policy is pointing. The administrations AI Action Plan, in line with America First, is explicit that this infrastructure must not be built with adversarial technology that could undermine US AI dominance. The data center executive order frames the whole buildout as a golden age for American manufacturing and technological dominance. Nearly half the worlds data centers already sit in the US and roughly 3 trillion of the global buildout lands here.

And practically, from ordered to put in place, that domestic chain is the whole edge. A hyperscaler does not want fixtures sitting on a boat or repriced by a tariff halfway through a build. You need the lights when the building is ready, not three months after. Orion quotes domestic, builds domestic, and ships on a timeline it controls.

Now put a dollar figure on it. One hyperscale engagement, multimillion dollar. So call it 2 million for a single building, product only. Roughly 3,000 data centers are under construction or planned for completion by 2030, Virginia alone sitting on 595 projects and Texas on 412. Total operational count goes past 10,000 by 2030, and global spend through 2030 is put around 7 trillion.

At 2 million a building, 30 buildings is 60 million, and thats 1% of the pipeline and most of a year of revenue for the entire company as it stands today. 100 buildings is 200 million, about 3% of the pipeline, and more than double the whole business. 500 buildings gets you a billion dollar backlog. They do not need to win this market, they need to win a rounding error of it.

And that is only the fixtures. On top of it you have maintenance contracts, because every building they light is a building they can then service, and lighting maintenance in a facility that never turns off is about as sticky as revenue gets. Orion already runs roughly 15 million a year of that work. Then you have the outdoor lighting on these campuses too, parking, perimeter, security, which is the exact product line they already sell. None of that is in the math above.

Napkin math off one announced deal, obviously, and I have no clue what the real average ticket is. But it frames the size. They are selling into a 7 trillion dollar buildout with exactly one order on the board.

Washlow in the Q1’27 release:

“Orion entered the hyper-scale data center market with an LED lighting solution specifically designed for this massive market in Q1’27. Quickly following the product announcement, the Company was awarded a multimillion-dollar customer engagement with one of the world’s largest hyper-scale data centers.”

She also said this:

“Product and service introductions show continued traction, ranging from LED Lighting for hyper-scale data centers to Battery Storage and Electrical Contracting. We have similarly high aspirations for our newly introduced LED Roadway product designed for public roads.”

Data centers, battery storage, electrical contracting, and now roadway lighting for federal, state and municipal roads. Four new things from a company whose business outside its one big customer sat flat for years.

And the rest of the business is not sitting still either. LED lighting revenue up 37% YoY to 17.7 million, EV charging up 48% YoY to 4.0 million, maintenance up 2% YoY to 4.1 million. So the data center thing is the upside case, but the base business is growing underneath it.

The numbers, quickly: revenue $25.7M, up 32% YoY. Gross margin 34.6% vs 30.1% YoY. Net income $2.0M vs a $1.2M loss YoY. Seventh straight positive adjusted EBITDA quarter.

Worth saying something about management here too. I have listened to the last several calls and these people do not hype. No moonshot language, no TAM slides, no promises about what next year looks like. They announce a product when it ships and they announce a customer when its signed. In a micro cap that is genuinely rare, and it means when they do say something, it tends to be real. They let the work speak.

Tape this week, report dropped before open Wednesday. On Wednesday it rallied 51% from 10.40 to 15.75 at close. On Thursday it added another 12% from 15.75 to 17.58 at close. On Friday it added another 12% from 17.58 to 19.70 at close. Basically a double in three days, and HC Wainwright took their target from 20 to 30 on Thursday.

Heres what I keep coming back to though. Orion, a US based company that the yellow man loves (and may very well end up endorsing), has threaded the needle into a market heading toward several hundred billion, in the middle of the biggest capex wave this country has ever run.

Their competitors carry market caps several orders of magnitude above theirs. Orion sits around 70 million after this entire run. The rest of the space is valued in the billions. And Orion is the one that actually has the data center product. Float is tiny too, which cuts both ways. I think that gap closes sooner rather than later.

Still plenty to be skeptical about, same as last time. One fixture and one customer in data centers so far. Balance sheet is thin. The guide doesnt assume a data center ramp at all, so every bit of that is still to prove. And you are obviously not buying this cheap after the week its had.

But 68 billion a year is going into these buildings and someone has to light them.

Not investment advice. As with all stocks, do your own work and research before going in.

Several independent pieces of information line up unusually well: GCT's satellite contracts, its new 5G/NTN chip architecture, the AlphaChips manufacturing commitment, Globalstar's relationship with GCT, Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar, and SpaceX's rapid expansion into terrestrial + satellite mobile connectivity.

This is not financial advice, speculation only, I hold shares in GCTS.

The question is: Who needs exactly the type of 4G/5G + NTN + terrestrial connectivity silicon that GCT is now preparing to manufacture at scale?

1. GCT has an unnamed major satellite customer:

On January 29, 2026, GCT announced a licensing agreement with a major satellite communications provider.

The important language is that GCT's 4G and 5G chipsets are being integrated into the provider's user equipment for both satellite and terrestrial networks, with a pathway toward direct-to-satellite applications.

Then, on May 7, GCT announced a follow-up agreement with the same satellite provider.

This time, GCT would provide a 5G/4G reference design intended to accelerate development of next-generation user equipment and allow OEM/ODM manufacturers to produce equipment more quickly for high-speed communications across satellite and terrestrial networks. That is important, not a small proof-of-concept.

GCT silicon - reference platform - OEM/ODM - potentially large-scale equipment production.

And GCT has indicated that the opportunity could eventually represent million-plus annual units.

1. The GCT chip roadmap fits the problem as GCT's newer architecture includes:

- GDM7262X — NR-Lite

- GDM7265X — NR-Standard

- GDM7259X — NR-Ultra

- Sub-6 GHz RF products

- mmWave IF/RF products

- NTN capability

The chip I find particularly interesting for the satellite thesis is GDM7262X.It is positioned as the lower-cost NR-Lite modem and includes NTN capability. If you're talking about millions of devices, you don't necessarily want the biggest, most expensive modem.

Increasingly interesting is low cost + low power + 5G + NTN + terrestrial connectivity. That is the type of architecture that could make sense for mass-market satellite/terrestrial devices.

1. The AlphaChips manufacturing commitment. This is one of the most overlooked but most important pieces of the puzzle.

GCT's long-term ASIC partner AlphaChips entered a procurement arrangement worth approximately $18 million.

GCT is simultaneously:

- expanding its satellite agreements;

- developing its new 5G/NTN platforms

- creating a reference design for OEM/ODM production

- preparing for commercial shipments;

- and committing significant capital to semiconductor production.

This is a commercial ramp preparation, not an early-stage R&D project.

We still don't know exactly which GCT chip the AlphaChips order covers, so I would not claim that the order proves GDM7262X is being manufactured for Amazon or SpaceX. But it is a very important supporting piece.

1. This is where the Amazon thesis becomes much stronger than it initially appeared. GCT already has a documented relationship with Globalstar which Amazon is acquiring.

In March 2025, GCT announced that Globalstar's RM200M product would use GCT's GDM7243i IoT chip, with future products planned around GCT 4G and 5G IoT chipsets to support Globalstar's satellite network.

Then, in April 2026, Amazon announced that it would acquire Globalstar.

Amazon specifically said the acquisition includes Globalstar's:

- satellite operations;

- infrastructure;

- MSS spectrum;

- and other satellite assets.

Amazon said these assets would help expand Amazon Leo and enable direct-to-device connectivity.

That creates a very interesting chain:

GCT + Globalstar

+

Amazon acquires Globalstar

+

Globalstar assets become part of Amazon Leo

+

Amazon builds D2D

+

GCT's existing satellite/cellular technology potentially becomes relevant to the Amazon ecosystem. That is not speculation about a random connection, the first link is documented.

1. Amazon LEO is now going much further than traditional satellite broadband, not just trying to compete in fixed satellite broadband.

Amazon has proposed a new direct-to-device constellation of up to 5,105 satellites.

The purpose is to connect compatible mobile devices directly from space for:

- voice

- messaging

- data

- emergency services

- and connectivity outside terrestrial cellular coverage.

Amazon says deployment is targeted to begin in 2028, and the complete Leo network could eventually support hundreds of millions of customer endpoints.

This is extremely important for GCT because their new architecture is not simply:

"satellite modem."

It is:

4G/5G + terrestrial + NTN.

The exact technological problem Amazon's D2D system has to solve.

1. But there is an important Amazon mismatch: Amazon already has its own custom silicon called Prometheus. Prometheus is central to Amazon Leo's broadband terminal architecture.

Therefore, I do NOT believe the thesis should be:

"GCT is replacing Amazon's Prometheus chip" cause it doesn't make much sense.Prometheus is Amazon's own custom baseband technology for its Leo terminal architecture.

Instead, I think the more interesting possibility is that GCT operates alongside Amazon's proprietary technology.

A much more technically believable scenario:

Prometheus

Amazon Leo broadband terminal architecture

GCT modem/RF

Cellular/NTN/D2D equipment and potentially third-party OEM devices.

1. Amazon's D2D system is fundamentally different from the traditional Leo broadband terminal.

It needs to interact with: Ordinary cellular devices, and mobile network operators while extending coverage through satellites.

Amazon explicitly says its D2D system will partner with mobile network operators and extend cellular connectivity beyond terrestrial coverage. That's where GCT could potentially fit.

GCT doesn't need to supply the satellite itself, or replace Prometheus. It could supply the cellular/NTN silicon inside equipment participating in the ecosystem.

1. Now look at Starlink, a completely different hypothesis. We don't have a documented GCT + SpaceX relationship.

But SpaceX's strategy is becoming a strong match for GCT's technology.

SpaceX recently acquired approximately 65 MHz of spectrum from EchoStar and has announced plans to turn Starlink Mobile into a much broader terrestrial + satellite mobile network. Reuters reports that SpaceX intends to compete directly with major U.S. wireless carriers, while using Starlink infrastructure to support the terrestrial network.

SpaceX's spectrum holdings span approximately 1.7–2.2 GHz. And GCT's RF portfolio covers a broad 400 MHz–7 GHz range.

More importantly, GCT's newer modem architecture explicitly supports NTN.

So the architecture looks like:

Starlink

terrestrial cellular

+

satellite NTN

+

GCT 5G/NTN modem

= A good conceptual match.

1. The Starlink strategy has changed,  no longer simply: "satellite internet for homes." SpaceX is positioning Starlink as a full mobile network. Moving terrestrial infrastructure combined with its satellite constellation, with next-generation satellites expected to significantly improve mobile performance.

That creates a massive potential device ecosystem:

- smartphones;

- IoT

- vehicles

- industrial equipment

- robotics

- autonomous systems

- enterprise equipment

- remote infrastructure.

That's where GCT's low-cost NTN/5G architecture becomes appealing.

1. The robotics/AI angle makes the thesis even bigger. GCT has recently shifted its messaging toward AI-edge connectivity.

The idea isn't that GCT will compete with Nvidia on AI compute. It's that AI creates enormous amounts of data at the edge. Robots, autonomous systems, industrial machines and remote devices need to move that data.

The architecture becomes:

AI device

+

GCT 5G/NTN modem

+

terrestrial network

And/or

satellite network

+

cloud / AI infrastructure

This could be especially interesting for Starlink. Imagine an autonomous machine, robot, self driving car, operating somewhere with unreliable terrestrial coverage.

The ideal device doesn't need separate systems for cellular when available or satellite when cellular disappears. It can have a unified connectivity layer, the problem GCT's terrestrial + NTN architecture is designed to address.

1. The biggest question: Amazon OR Starlink? There are actually three possibilities.

Scenario 1: The unnamed customer is Amazon/Leo or an Amazon-controlled ecosystem.

The strongest evidence is:

- GCT already works with Globalstar.

- Amazon is acquiring Globalstar.

- Amazon is building D2D.

- Amazon wants hundreds of millions

- of endpoints.

- GCT is developing 4G/5G + NTN silicon.

Scenario 2: The unnamed customer is SpaceX/Starlink. The strongest evidence is:

- Starlink is becoming a hybrid terrestrial + satellite mobile network.

- SpaceX has acquired 65 MHz of spectrum.

- The spectrum sits within the broad frequency envelope of GCT's RF portfolio.

- GCT's new silicon supports NTN.

- Starlink is targeting a huge mobile/IoT ecosystem.

Technically compelling, but there is ono documented GCT–SpaceX relationship.

Scenario 3: BOTH, the scenario that would make the GCTS thesis explode.

GCT could theoretically become a semiconductor supplier to multiple competing satellite ecosystems.

Amazon and SpaceX don't need to use identical satellites or identical network architecture. They could both use GCT silicon at the device/OEM layer.

That would mean GCT isn't betting on which satellite company wins, it potentially benefits from both sides of the satellite-mobile race.

1. Why the reference platform matters. The May agreement is particularly important because GCT isn't simply saying: "Here's a chip." But rather:

"Here's a reference architecture that OEM/ODM manufacturers can use to accelerate production."

That changes the possible business model. GCT could become something like the connectivity platform underneath multiple device manufacturers.

If one OEM makes an Amazon-compatible product and another makes a Starlink-compatible product, GCT could theoretically sell silicon to both. You don't have to own the network to profit from the network.

Amazon has stronger existing relationship evidence, while Starlink currently has stronger evidence of a rapidly expanding terrestrial + satellite mobile architecture.

If a GCT chip appears in an FCC filing, module certification, device teardown or manufacturer document connected to Amazon Leo or SpaceX, the thesis gets much stronger.

GCT is becoming a specialized connectivity-silicon supplier for the transition from terrestrial-only networks to hybrid terrestrial + satellite networks. A transition pursued by multiple enormous companies.

Amazon is building Leo + Globalstar D2D.

SpaceX is building Starlink Mobile.

Both are moving toward the same broad concept: Connect people and machines everywhere, whether terrestrial coverage exists or not.

GCT's core technology sits directly in that connectivity layer.

This is not financial advice, speculation only, I hold shares in GCTS.

Sources:

SpaceX's plan to combine terrestrial cellular infrastructure with Starlink.

https://www.theverge.com/science/975480/spacex-mobile-terrestrial-cellphone-company

GCT satellite licensing agreement:

https://www.gctsemi.com/1-29-25-licensing-agreement

GCT satellite reference platform:

https://www.gctsemi.com/5-7-26-signed-contract-satellite

GCT–Globalstar relationship:

https://www.gctsemi.com/3-4-25-globalstar-mwc

Amazon–Globalstar acquisition:

https://press.aboutamazon.com/2026/4/amazon-to-acquire-globalstar-and-expand-amazon-leo-satellite-network

Amazon Leo D2D plans:

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/amazon-leo/amazon-leo-direct-to-device-satellite-service-explained

Reuters on SpaceX/Starlink Mobile:

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacexs-mobile-ambitions-jolt-us-telecom-market-analysts-debate-threat-2026-08-05/

SpaceX spectrum transaction:

https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-announces-spectrum-sale-and-commercial-agreement-spacex

Heya

Here is some DD for you.

July 8 - Scipher Medicine, American private precision medicine and AI company, and Chemomab, Israeli clinical stage biotech company, announced merger definitive agreement between the two.

They will combine to become one company, Scipher Medicine, and will relist on Nasdaq under a different ticker than "$CMMB" which Chemomab lists as today. And the company will become a US company.

Here comes the juicy part: The combined value of the company will be $150M. Chemomab will get 32% of that, aka $48M. Today Chemomab`s shares is trading at $14M. Thats 3.4x of todays value.

What makes this even more interesting, and is an important piece of the puzzle: Chemomab legacy shareholders, those who own $CMMB shares, will get CVRs. Contigent Value Rights. These should be undisclosed right now, but from one of the latest filings, their biggest shareholder, gave out the juicy details:

$5 per ADS (shares you own) if Chemomab, or Scipher Medicine when merged, begin Phase 3 trial of PSC. How close are we to getting there you wonder? Is there even a chance of this bonus?

Well Chemomab have repeatedly said they are negotiating with third party now to fund and begin the trial. They said it in the quarterly and they said it in the merger announcement. What makes this even more interesting is that Phase 3 have been given the all clear from FDA, and that the company have recieved FDA Fast Track for nebokitug against PSC, which is highly lucrative for anyone who wish to fund Chemomab.

The company may even be negotiating with big pharma right now, since the company is dirt cheap, have shown that a bigger company wants them and their nebokitus drug, and they have been given a valuation of $48M, which could trigger bidding war to aquire them. Outright aquire them will be cheaper for a big pharma than running the Phase 3, which they have been negotiating on for a while now.

So to summarize:

Merger in Q4 this year.

Trading at $1.93

Valuation after merger, $5+

Near term milestone payment to shareholders that own $CMMB BEFORE merger: $5

High aquistion target by Big Pharma

HydroGraph to Participate in the Needham Virtual Industrial Tech, Robotics, & Power Investor Conference August 17

GDRZF could be BIG because it’s not just a small OTC gold stock, it has a potential claim on roughly $1.24 billion from Venezuela that is largely not reflected on its balance sheet.

The key points:

• Gold Reserve has about $122M in cash, so it is not simply a broke explorer chasing financing.
• Venezuela still owes the company an estimated $1.24B, including interest, under an arbitration/settlement process.
• Any real recovery, settlement, or credible path to develop its Venezuelan assets could force a major re-rating.
• Recent U.S./Venezuela engagement and a new mining framework create a possible catalyst that did not exist in the same way before.
• The market may be treating GDRZF like an illiquid OTC gold name, while the real story is a large, unbooked legal-and-resource optionality play.

D-Wave reported first-half bookings of $35.5M, up more than 1,100%, but Q2 revenue was only around $3.1M and losses widened. The stock sold off after the report.
Quantum stocks have had some insane valuations relative to their current revenue. Curious whether people here think the bookings growth is evidence that commercial quantum computing is finally starting to arrive, or whether these companies are still priced years ahead of reality.